♪ (opening music) ♪ <Gavin Jackson> Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson.

This week, we've seen a lot of discussions centered around teachers and vaccines.

To get more in depth, we talked with State Superintendent of Education, Molly Spearman.

Also we take a look at the state's economy, just how well it's doing with Dr Joey Von Nessen.

Now, the latest from this week.

So far, South Carolina has administered more than 440 thousand doses of vaccine with numbers increasing daily.

Earlier this week, the healthcare giant Prisma Health announced it had administered its 100 thousandth vaccine and commemorated the event at one of its two massive vaccination sites the one at Gamecock Park in Columbia where 71 year old Barry Gray received the ceremonious shot.

Governor Henry McMaster was also on hand and called upon pharmacies and smaller providers to begin ramping up the rollout of the vaccine <Governor Henry McMaster> So we want the pharmacies and those out in the more rural areas to do the same things that our hospitals are doing now and when we get everyone operating at maximum capacity that will be good news for the people of South Carolina.

<Gavin> Later in the week, McMaster and DHEC announced that residents 65 and older would be moved into phase 1A.

and they could scheduling vaccine appointments beginning Monday February 8th the decision not to move teachers into phase 1A irked some senators and led to the introduction of a bill that would make some 72 thousand teachers and staff eligible for the vaccine, something the governor doesn't want to do until the most vulnerable populations are taken care of.

<Gov.

McMaster> We don't want to put a single younger healthy person in front of a an older person who may die if they don't get that vaccine.

That is the reason.

<Gavin> The CDC said this week that teacher vaccinations aren't necessary to return to face to face instruction.

<Rochelle Walensky> I also want to be clear that there is increasing data to suggest that schools can safely re-open.

And that safe re-opening does not suggest that teachers need to be vaccinated in order to reopen safely.

<Gavin> And on Thursday, the Senate approved Dr Edward Simmer as the next Director of DHEC, the agency that has been overseeing the state's response to the pandemic.

The sprawling agency has had three different directors and two interim directors since 2012.

Now to discuss our state's economy is Dr. Joey Von Nessen.

He's a research economist at the University of South Carolina's Darla Moore School of Business.

Joey, welcome back.

Great to see you.

<Joey Von Nessen> Thanks Gavin.

Great to see you.

<Gavin> I want to start off Joey.

Give us an overview, since we last talked.

Give us your view of our state's economy right now, here in February.

<Joey> Sure.

Our economy is continuing to recover both at the U.S. and the South Carolina levels.

So when we look locally here, we're continuing to progress.

The unemployment rate now at 4.6 percent in South Carolina and it's that slow and steady recovery that we've been seeing all throughout the Fall and into the Winter.

But the recovery has also been very dichotomous, meaning that if you look at all sectors in South Carolina except for leisure and hospitality basically the service sector we're doing very well and we're almost fully recovered.

Employment levels now are within a percentage point of where they were this time last year.

If we look at leisure and hospitality, if we look at that service sector, it's still down about 17 percent and in 2021 we're not going to see full recovery of leisure and hospitality until we get the vaccine distributed.

And so that's really what we're looking towards as we move ahead.

Recovery in South Carolina at this point really means recovery of leisure and hospitality, because most other sectors have recovered and are doing well.

<Gavin> And we talked about the unemployment situation.

We have seen it tick up slightly.

I think numbers in October were 4.2 percent They started going up in November 4.4.

Now, December was 4.6.

Is that discouraging news?

Do you see that as a longer term trend?

How do you place those numbers, when we look at our state unemployment rate?

<Joey> I see that more as a temporary trend, because we did see the number of COVID cases go up after Thanksgiving and after Christmas.

We saw lower seasonal hiring patterns relative to what we're used to seeing in more normal economic times.

So, this is more of a seasonal shift and a result of the Winter increases in the COVID cases.

And it was largely concentrated again in the leisure and hospitality sector.

That's the industry that's continuing to struggle, because most other sectors that don't rely on in person interactions as much have adjusted and adapted and are continuing to do well.

I think this is more of a temporary situation that will improve as the vaccine continues to roll out.

<Gavin> Joey do you see the same on the national level too?

We saw things get sluggish towards end of the year, too.

December snapped a seven month job creation streak.

It was getting a little sluggish there, but we're going to see January numbers this Friday.

What do you deduce of the national level and do we kind of mirror that when we're talking about issues with hospitality and service industry jobs?

<Joey> I think we do mirror that.

What's happening in South Carolina is largely what's happening at the national level.

At the national level, we're seeing some, in general we're seeing more lockdowns, more targeted lockdowns in certain states than we are in South Carolina.

So, that makes a difference as well.

It's about businesses, their ability to open and what their demand actually looks like.

I think over the next several months, we're going to continue to see more of a flat lining meaning that growth is going to be very sluggish as we see the cases continue to be relatively high in the aftermath of the holiday season.

And that's why we hear all of the discussion about another stimulus package that will help to bridge the gap basically between where we are today and when we get to where the vaccine is more widely distributed and we can see a recovery of the leisure and hospitality sector that right now just hasn't happened.

<Gavin> And we heard from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week talk about keeping interest rates low.

He also had some concerns about long term structural issues to the labor market and then the Congressional Budget Office came out with a report saying that unemployment employment levels won't be back until like 2024, pre-pandemic unemployment levels.

I'm wondering, you don't think it's going to take us that long as a state to get back to where we were.

You're already talking about other sectors besides leisure and hospitality getting to pre-pandemic levels essentially in our state.

Do you see that recovery being a year two or just really incumbent upon the vaccine rollout?

<Joey> It's mainly incumbent on the vaccine roll out.

I think so.

It's more about biology than economics.

But based on the current projections, for the vaccine rollout, we're looking at full employment recovery in South Carolina probably by the end of 2021, if we project outwards, assuming we get that rollout.

Because the leisure and hospitality sector could potentially see a very good year in 2021.

I think the best case scenario we would hope for in South Carolina is where we get that widespread rollout in the late Spring, early Summer, right around Memorial Day, right at the time when tourism season is kicking into high gear.

And if those two influences come together, then I think we may see a very strong tourism season.

We'll have to wait and see but that would be the ideal scenario for South Carolina.

<Gavin> And Joey you mentioned stimulus.

We keep hearing about discussions about stimulus and federal level.

President Joe Biden discussing 1.9 trillion dollars for this.

I'm wondering what you think about the need for that.

I also heard from Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell saying that inflation is not anywhere near a dangerous level at this point.

We're not even meeting their two percent benchmark, at this point.

Are you concerned about additional money floating?

Do you think we need another stimulus?

<Joey> Well I think there's broad consensus among economists that yes, we do need additional stimulus The economy is still hurting.

There are some disagreements of course about what that stimulus should entail.

I think at the bare minimum which is part of the package, it needs to include more assistance towards businesses that are not able to open and are in distress, particularly small businesses.

So, that would expand the PPP programs that have been in place.

Also aid to unemployed workers, particularly in the industries like leisure and hospitality in South Carolina that simply, there's no demand for those jobs right now.

so they're in a bad position in that industry.

Then of course all the funding going towards supporting the vaccine roll out.

I think those three elements are the most important right now and again the whole goal is to provide a bridge from where we are today until we get that vaccine roll out, but I think we're looking at fairly flat growth, particularly in leisure and hospitality for the next few months and so this will help us navigate those waters until we see some improvement.

<Gavin> Joey as part of that stimulus plan by the president, which is still, there's many phases to it.

There's one part of it about increasing the minimum wage, the federal minimum wage to 15 dollars an hour.

Tell me about your research.

You understand about how that could affect businesses in South Carolina.

I don't know all of your research into the minimum wage but you've seen a lot of research good and bad.

How do you think that could affect the state if it went into effect?

<Joey> Yeah, that's a great question.

When we talk about minimum wage, the term we have to keep in mind is trade off.

It's really all about trade offs and making certain people better off.

Certainly, if they see a raise at work that's going to make them better off but it has the possible risks of the increases associated with labor costs, because businesses have to absorb those costs.

They can either do that directly or they can increase the price of their products or they can reduce the amount of hiring or hours worked for other employees.

It can make certain employees better off at the expense of others and that really depends on the business on the industry and on the region that we're looking at.

I think in South Carolina what we're seeing now with the leisure and hospitality sector the ones still hurting right now.

If you look at the average wage levels particularly in the food and service industry.

So, food and service workers, it's about 9 dollars an hour right now.

That would be a significant cost increase for businesses in the leisure and hospitality industry moving that minimum wage up.

And I'm concerned about in 2021 with that industry currently in distress, tacking on an additional labor cost increase basically.

That's a kind of a double whammy for them in 2021.

So that would be a challenge for them.

But again every industry is different and it affects different industries and different regions very differently.

<Gavin> So, a little worry it could short circuit a recovery in leisure and hospitality essentially?

Well, certainly make it more challenging for them, because they're down 17 percent in terms of their employment levels already.

They're struggling to come back.

If you tack on an additional cost associated with their labor, the labor costs that they're facing, then that compounds the challenge that they're already seeing.

<Gavin> Joey, with about 30 seconds can you tell me what you're going to be looking for the next couple weeks and months going forward in this recovery?

<Joey> I think at this point it's really all about the biology.

It's all about the vaccine rollout, because again South Carolina if we looked broadly at our major industry sectors, real estate if we look at professional services, we look at manufacturing, all those are doing very well and they're continuing to recover and move in the right direction.

So, it's really all about leisure and hospitality.

That's what recovery means for South Carolina in 2021 is when do we see the leisure and hospitality sector recover?

And that's primarily tied to the vaccine roll out.

So we're really focused on that and especially whether that can happen before or after tourism season.

<Gavin> That's Dr. Joey Von Nessen, a research economist of the USC Darla Moore School of Business.

Joey always a pleasure.

<Joey> Thank you Gavin.

Always a pleasure to be with you.

<Gavin> Thanks.

We originally planned to speak with Superintendent of Education Molly Spearman, however due to a scheduling conflict she had to cancel our interview.

But because of this week's important news around teachers and vaccines, we've compiled a segment of her recent remarks.

<Senator Brad Hutto> ... but the point is this Is it not?

That if we can get the teachers vaccinated there'd be no reason not to be back full time in school teachers in front of class rooms 100 percent.

I mean do you think - <Molly Spearman> ....and thank you Senator Hutto.

You're right.

There are some folks - And I've been meeting this week with a few districts that are still only virtual, really pressing on them to get back.

I'm hearing that well we need the vaccine.

That's the reason all.

I understand and again yesterday the head of the new head of the CDC said you know, vaccinating is not, you don't have to vaccine.

We've already proved it works, but that fear factor is there.

The fear factor is there.

I think that doing this would alleviate that final excuse that some folks may be leaning on.

<Sen.

Hutto> Is it then your intention that if we move teachers up in the order and get them vaccinated within the next, hopefully few weeks but maybe a month that everybody will all be offering full time five day classes.

<Spearman> Yes, Sir.

<Senator Hutto> What percentage of schools are doing that now versus- <Spearman> 51 percent.

We have a 1263 schools and 546 of them are back five days a week.

<Sen.

Hutto> Some are hybrid - <Spearman> 45 percent are hybrid and we still have three percent that are totally virtual.

<Sen.

Hutto> - virtual, okay.

All right there is in the bill, language that says "...shall identify "certified teachers and school support staff."

Does that word certified leaving anybody out?

<Spearman> Support staff adds the right people.

<Sen.

Hutto> Okay.

So - <Spearman> the rest of the people.

<Sen.

Hutto> the rest of the people.

- the rest of people could be the administration, janitorial people in the cafeterias.

<Spearman> Yes Sir <Sen.

Hutto> school bus drivers <Spearman> Yes.

<Sen.

Hutto> Okay.

All right.

and finally I've heard in some states where vaccinations are being offered that some teachers have said they still won't go back until the kids are vaccinated.

Have you heard that?

<Spearman> Well, on national news.

Yes, I've heard that.

<Sen.

Hutto> You don't - You think if we get the teachers vaccinated, that full day, five day a week in person classes will be - <Spearman> I may need you.

I'm going to follow up with the question.

So, what if I don't do it?

Not me personally, but suppose there's a district I think you all may need to look at giving us some kind of authority to administer, I hate to say the word penalty.

But it may take that - <Sen.

Hutto> I'm wondering about that -the only penalty that might work would be to say if they aren't back after receiving the vaccine within seven days, aren't back full time, five days, you have the authority to withhold up to X thousand dollars a day for the first whatever.

It's got to be some penalty or either.

<Spearman> Yes.

We'll be happy to work with you and I don't like saying that.

But, now again on the other hand, I think we have to remember too, that school districts working with their local DHEC folks have to make some hard decisions with infectious diseases, whether it's the flu or COVID.

If we get up to 20-30 percent of the staff and population that is infected, yes, they need to close.

So, whatever you write you've got to remember that there still could come a time - hopefully that won't happen.

<Sen.

Hutto> Right, but if - <Spearman> - their decision.

Yes, Sir.

<Sen.

Hutto> One more question.

So, even though we're going to be back in class, there are some I guess immune suppressed children and others that still need that virtual option.

So, is it my understanding that even though we're going to offer and have full class participation available during the rest of the pandemic or at least through this school year, every district will still be having a virtual option - <Spearman> Yes, Sir.

<Sen.

Hutto> Okay.

<Spearman> I see my role as state superintendent to advocate for our students and teachers in the state and I have asked that consideration be given to moving teachers forward to prioritize them so that they can be vaccinated.

In order to get prepared for that, last week we surveyed the school districts in the state and had responses back for them on Wednesday we wanted to find out and DHEC actually in a meeting with them are the ones who asked us to get that information so we could have a better indication of exactly what we're talking about.

We surveyed and asked districts to let us know how many potential employees, school educators, support staff that they would have...that would need to be vaccinated.

That number came in a little over a 122 thousand people that would be eligible.

We also asked them to survey those employees to see who indeed would take the vaccine if it were offered to them and that percentage ranged from 15 percent in some districts, to as high as almost 90 percent.

The Average statewide was about 57 percent which is a little over 71 thousand employees who said "Yes, I would take the vaccine".

That could grow slightly.

We hope it will as some folks step back and watch and don't make up their mind until they see someone that they respect step forward and take the vaccine, so we're excited about that and hope that number would grow.

About of our 79 districts, about half of them 38 said, "Yes, we're set, ready to go.

"We've already been in contact with our hospitals.

"we know we have a plan".

The others did not, but I will tell you since Wednesday and one of those actually included our largest district in the state, Greenville, who at the time did not have a plan.

They had reached out to their provider and not been able to really come to agreement.

So they now have worked with Bon Secours.

And they do have a plan in place to have their teachers vaccinated using the over 100 nurses that they have in their district to assist.

Another district Lexington one right here in the Midlands is ready to go.

They worked with Lexington Medical.

They have 50 some odd school nurses.

Their plan, they're training those nurses.

By the way, DHEC is already working with our folks on that to train potential nurses, athletic trainers, also to assist in giving the vaccine.

They do have to get a doctor's order to cover them, but those negotiations, those plans are well in place.

I am meeting at 11 o'clock today with all superintendents.

And I anticipate that that number of who has a plan will have grown since last Wednesday.

I know we went from 38 to 39 that's ten percent of the state when you talk about Greenville, but I know of several of rural districts that I spoke with individually with their superintendents.

So, I know that they are reaching out to their hospital system.

They didn't understand it was going to be their responsibility to reach out.

We thought it might work the other way, but it's a collaboration.

So, we understand that the health care system has been so impacted by this and doing all they can.

We're encouraging those conversations.

From the onset of COVID-19 pandemic I have relied on the latest data and guidance from state, national, public health officials on when and how we open up our schools.

Prior to the start of the school year we convened a group of education experts to formulate guidance on how schools should operate in the face of the pandemic.

The only data that we had at that time was available from other countries from the spread of COVID-19 in local communities.

Today there's growing evidence from within our state and across the nation that schools are not the super spreaders they were once feared to be.

This is largely in part to the hard work and dedication of local districts and individual schools to put the appropriate safety measures in place.

The supporting studies have found schools to be safe when they are following key mitigation strategies and they are implemented consistently: correct use of masks, social distancing, to the extent possible, hand sanitizer, respiratory etiquette, cleaning and disinfection of buildings and contact tracing, those things that we per Doctor Bell say over and over again.

She was right.

In the summer, we didn't know how it was going to work.

Now we do.

And that is why today I'm rescinding the initial guidance from our Accelerate Ed task force report published in June 2020 that bases school operations on community spread trends and data.

Given the abundance of reports showing how low COVID-19 risks of in person operations, rescinding the guidance that talked about the low, medium, high spread.

We know now you can operate school safely even under high spread in communities.

A study conducted by the Medical University of South Carolina shows that there has not been a significant surge of COVID-19 in classrooms.

Only one percent of students and staff in Charleston County Schools tested positive for the virus after the return of in person school.

As for statewide impact, there have been 9359 positive COVID cases reported in South Carolina K-12 students and staff.

Since September fourth.

This is about 2.9 percent of the state's 317,800 cases during the reporting period.

Currently 646 schools, over half of those in our state are operating five days a week in communities with high rates of spread.

Many have been in this mode of operation since the very first day of school.

While many students and families have chosen and are able to successfully navigate a virtual learning environment, so many other kids are struggling.

They desperately need to return to school to face to face instruction, as quickly as possible.

They rely on us, for that personal connection, the controlled environment, safety and security that the classroom offers.

For these students and families we need to be face to face in a traditional model as soon as possible.

Another reason, interim assessment data now has been submitted to the South Carolina Department of Education.

Fall assessments that were given back in August and then those assessments that were given in December right before the children went home for winter break.

Our children are experiencing more significant academic loss.

This is most evident at lower grade levels where students are learning the fundamental skills of math and reading.

School operation decisions making must rely on the needs of our students and the availability of staff.

There may be times and we're seeing that where a classroom or a school or even a district has to go virtual.

Due to the inability to staff the school for short while.

I understand that and we will work closely with school districts with those decisions.

Governor just quoted Rochelle Walensky, our new CDC director, who said yesterday, "Schools need to be open."

And vaccination is not a criteria for that.

Now, I do you support teachers being vaccinated.

I think our schools are unique and probably as close to the healthcare industry on the impact that they have on our society on families who need to work.

<Gavin> To keep you updated throughout the week, check out the South Carolina Lede.

It's a podcast that I host twice a week that gives you the latest on COVID-19 news, state politics and more.

You can find it on South Carolina publicradio.org or wherever you find podcasts for South Carolina ETV I'm Gavin Jackson.

Be well, South Carolina.

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