♪♪ >> Hello and welcome to "GZERO World."

I'm Ian Bremmer.

You knew that.

Today, a look at what happens when a dictator yells "fire" in a crowded theater or in this case, "bomb" on a plane flying between two European cities.

The false alarm led to a diverted flight and the arrest of a dissident journalist.

How should Brussels and sure, how should Washington respond to Belarus?

And what role, if any, will an exiled schoolteacher play in redefining the politics of this former Soviet state?

I tackle this and more with that former teacher now turned leader of Belarus's opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Later, a look at how a 73-year-old great-grandmother is defying police in the capital city of Minsk.

And then we've got your puppets.

>> Welcome aboard Authoritarian Air, where our safety is your top concern.

>> But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

>> Major corporate funding provided by founding sponsor First Republic.

At First Republic, our clients come first.

Taking the time to listen helps us provide customized banking and wealth-management solutions.

More on our clients at firstrepublic.com.

Additional funding provided by... ...and by... >> If you ever doubted just how seriously Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko takes democracy, look no further than the most recent Syrian elections.

The man who has held Minsk's highest office since 1994 sent a delegation of election observers to Damascus just to make sure that everything went smoothly and boy, did it.

Bashar al-Assad clocked in for his fourth term with 95% of the vote, which makes you wonder.

Anyway, no surprise that Lukashenko's last bout with the ballot box gave him a similar landslide.

That is according to Lukashenko.

Frequently called Europe's last dictator, Lukashenko has sailed smoothly to victory in all six elections he stood in despite widespread corruption and fraud in every one.

But in 2020, the biggest threat so far to Lukashenko's tight grip on government came in an unlikely package -- a former schoolteacher, stay-at-home mom.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya decided to run for office after her activist husband was jailed and disqualified from running himself.

It's said that Lukashenko did not take her candidacy seriously enough because she was a woman.

I'm kind of getting some Duterte vibes here, Philippines' leader, who said the president isn't a job for a woman.

What's wrong with these people?

It's not the first time Lukashenko himself sounded like a lunatic.

Here's his hot take on COVID.

I'm pretty sure that's not how it works.

After the election result was finalized in Belarus and you guessed it -- Lukashenko claimed victory -- hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets.

At least four people died, thousands were arrested, some were tortured and beaten, then Lukashenko's boldest move yet.

>> There's been a chorus of condemnation across Europe tonight after a Ryanair plane flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted to Minsk in Belarus.

And a dissident Belarusian journalist on board was detained.

>> Though Belarus is routinely ranked the most dangerous place in Europe for journalists, hijacking a plane flying between two European capitals to capture a political foe raises the bar even for Lukashenko.

European officials were not pleased.

The bloc banned Belarusian planes from flying over European airspace, called for sanctions and even pledged to spend 3 billion euros on a democratic transition if Lukashenko agrees to step down.

How did Lukashenko respond to the pressure?

He flew over to Russia to meet with his longtime buddy, Vladimir Putin, who no doubt had some good advice about how to hold on to power.

Is a democratic transition remotely possible in Belarus?

And are Western sanctions likely to accomplish anything meaningful when Russian ties still run so deep?

I speak with Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya about her hopes and fears for her country.

Here's our conversation.

Sviatlana, thank you for joining today.

Really appreciate it.

Just days ago, dissident Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich, who's now been in police custody since his plane was forced down in Minsk, openly wept in a TV interview, if you can even call it that, with state television.

And spoke favorably of President Lukashenko.

He disavowed you and other opposition allies in the process.

I'm wondering how it felt for you to watch that interview.

And you saw -- I mean, it looked like he had bruises, like he had some deep marks on his wrists.

I mean, again, you know him well.

Anything as you were watching this, I mean, truly sickening, a spectacle that came out of your home country.

Talk to me about what you noticed and how you react.

You yourself flew on the same flight path through Belarusian airspace.

Why do you think they decided to take his plane hostage and not yours?

Were you surprised that President Putin "invited" and I'm sure President Lukashenko had no choice but to accept the invitation to come to Sochi a few days later?

They were looking like the best of friends, sharing a meal on Putin's yacht.

Talk to me a little bit about how you related to Putin's response to all of this.

Now, when the Belarusian elections occurred and were stolen by President Lukashenko and the opposition was out in the streets in large numbers for a long time, at that point, did you -- did your colleagues reach out to the Russian government at all?

Did they reach out to you?

Was there a willingness of the Russian government, either formally or informally, to communicate with you or otherwise the Belarusian opposition to show that maybe there might be a way out?

I mean, you obviously have gotten a lot of support from the West.

I've seen so many statements from countries across Europe, the United States, Canada.

The responses from the West have been very strong diplomatically.

Economically, of course, the sanctions are more limited.

Has the Western response, in your view, been appropriate to date?

The Europeans are saying, of course, they want the Belarusian president and the government to be punished, but they don't want to hurt the Belarusian people.

And that, of course, is a reason that is given for limiting and tailoring the sanctions that are being levied on Belarus.

When you hear that statement from the European Union, how do you respond to it?

Extraordinary bravery on the part of the people of Belarus finding ways to turn out and demonstrate, even though they know violence can be used against them, even though they know they can be taken from the streets and thrown in prison, there's no rule of law.

How do you sustain this kind of an opposition movement, given the power that the Belarusian government and the military and the police and the state media and all of the rest, given how much power they have?

What's life like in Belarus for the average citizen right now?

Describe it a little bit for an audience that has never been there.

We know that you want Lukashenko and his regime out.

It's very understandable.

Do you still want to be president yourself?

Sviatlana, last question for you before we go.

Do you think today that Lukashenko believes he's winning?

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, you're an incredibly courageous person, and I really appreciate you joining us on "GZERO World."

When Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya began her bid for the presidency, Lukashenko dismissed her campaign because he said society was not mature enough to vote for a woman.

The way to the presidency, he added, would cause her to collapse.

"Poor thing."

I'm not making it up.

That's actually what he said.

Far from it, women have emerged as the movement's greatest force, and one great-grandmother has become a fixture on the streets.

>> The streets of Belarus' capital are being taken over by women.

>> The group of women emerged marching in the capital wearing white, carrying flowers.

>> This revolution will have a name.

I think it will be a women's revolution.

>> In August, after the elections, women came out to the streets again when thousands of people were arrested.

They came out with flowers in white clothes, and police were shocked because they did not expect, you know, this peacefulness, this, you know, flowers, the laughs, the smiles.

[ Women chanting ] [ Truck horn honks ] Nina Baginskaya is called the grandmother of the protest movement.

She's been around forever.

She's been attending rallies, protests since well, basically before I was born.

It was the late '80s.

It was still the Soviet Union.

So she was always with this white, red, white flight.

And that's how she -- that's how everybody knows her.

And it really gives an example to everyone, to the youth, obviously to students, because when they see her protesting, walking with this white and red-white flag, they just understand that, well, "We have to join ourselves, right?

We have to join the movement."

She's an example to everyone of courage, of empathy, of resilience, of patriotism.

>> And now to something a little lighter.

It's "Puppet Regime."

We all know the pandemic has been a tough time for the airline industry, but one new carrier appears to have emerged stronger than ever.

It's got three fingers.

Roll that tape.

>> Hi.

I am Alexander Lukashenko.

Welcome aboard Authoritarian Air, where our safety is your top concern.

For help with preflight announcement, my captain.

Oh, Captain, my Captain, Vladimir Putin!

>> Oh, you idiot.

Do I have to do everything for you?

>> Well, yes, please, yes.

>> Ohh.

Okay, folks, there are four emergency exit -- two in front, two in rear.

But if you wish to leave plane, you will be poisoned.

>> And also, during taxi, takeoff, and especially landing, ensure that tray table is up and you have properly buckled handcuffs.

>> Remember, please, to buckle your own handcuffs before helping others to buckle theirs.

We also are proud to offer Internet as an unfree service on all flights.

In the event of interruption, you may pay a ransom with Bitcoin.

Oh, no.

Did I say quiet part out loud?

>> Ha!

That reminds me.

In-flight entertainment of today is classic comedy film "Stalin Show Trials: Wildest Bloopers, Volume 7."

>> Endless lulz.

>> Now, in unlikely event that we are forced to make emergency landing...

Wait, that's a great idea.

Let's make one in Minsk.

Who would stop us?

[ Intercom beeps ] >> Hello.

Hello.

This is European Union flight control.

You keep that plane right where it is, you nasty little fellows.

It's not taking off today.

>> Ladies and gentlemen, we have just experienced sudden lack of pressure.

But don't worry.

That's just Europeans making strongly worded statements again.

>> [ Laughs ] >> Why do you laugh like such an idiot?

>> [ Gasps ] >> "Puppet Regime"!

>> That's our show this week.

Come back next week, and if you like what you see or you were thinking about a vacation in Belarus and now you realize, "Maybe not such a great idea.

I should listen to this Bremmer guy," check us out at gzeromedia.com.

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ >> Major corporate funding provided by founding sponsor First Republic.

At First Republic, our clients come first.

Taking the time to listen helps us provide customized banking and wealth-management solutions.

More on our clients at firstrepublic.com.

Additional funding provided by... ...and by...