>>This week on NewsNight, a look at the final get-out-the-vote efforts by Republicans and Democrats in Central Florida.

>>We can't be the only Democrats in Florida.

>>I know how important it is to keep our freedom.

>>Plus, early voting and the work to win over those who say they're still undecided.

NewsNight starts now.

(Music) >>Hello, I'm Steve Mort.

Welcome to NewsNight, where we take an in-depth look at the top stories and issues in Central Florida and how they shape our community.

First tonight, the home stretc in the 2024 election campaign.

Of course, the result in the presidential race is unlikely to be known on Tuesday night if the polls are right anyway.

Across Florida, Democrats and Republicans are busy trying to squeeze out any final remaining votes for their candidates ahead of polls closing.

And as Krystel Knowles reports, independent and undecided voters are set to be key.

>>Wha we're going to do is ask them, have you sent in your mail ballot yet?

>>Canvassing vary slightly from person to person.

But the goal is the same.

Get one more vote.

>>We're here today to find to ask whether or not you have voted yet.

>>Some people, like Rick Schuette, Chair for the Addison Village Democrats, canvasses by rolling up door to door with his entourage.

>>The people we're talking to now are people that have registered for mail ballots.

So we're trying to make sure that they, you know, understand who to vote for and what amendments and judges and everything else.

>>On th other hand, 89 year old Orange County Republican Gai Simms has a different approach.

She uses her experience a a singer to reach her community.

(Singing) >>Stand beside her.

(Talking) >>I sang for the then governor and then later became President Ronald Reagan.

Since matter of fact, the two years ago when I did canvassing for the-for our governor I had people ask me to come in and they said, would you sing for us?

And I would sing God Bless America for them.

>>Schuette says this year, volunteers are more energized, and while on their canvassing grounds, they've spoken to voters who are considering voting across party lines.

>>This is taking the fight to the streets, so to speak, instead of just talking about it.

We're actually going out and doing things this year.

>>There is one particular demographic both groups are hoping to sway.

>>According to USA Facts, a not for profit, nonpartisan grou that analyzes government data.

There are about 32 millio registered independent voters, with Florida accountin for roughly 26% of that total.

>>Really what it comes down to is a lot of people have a middle ground and we need to find what that is so we can deliver for the mos voters that we can as possible.

>>Out of more than 187 million registered voters nationwide, eyes are on the millions of undecided voters.

>>If we do have opportunities to engage with people, and we do it with fact and not emotions, and we listen and let them be heard, then that has been an effect.

Not necessarily thousands of votes, because we're not doing thousands of those doors, but when we do have >>Krystel Knowles reporting there.

Well, let's bring in our panel now to break it all down.

Joining me in the studio this week is independent journalist, Jason Garcia write who the Substack Seeking Rents, always following the money around the place.

Thanks for being here, Jason.

>>Yeah.

>>Great to see you.

Steven Lemongello covers politics for the Orlando Sentinel.

Nice to see you, Steve.

>>Good to be here.

>>And we've got Curtis McLeod with us, Spectrum News 13.

Thanks for comin in, Curtis.

>>Happy to be here.

>>Good to see you.

Let's start about talking about early voting, shall we?

I mean, the turnout's been pretty high here in Florida.

The Republicans seem to have an advantag in terms of votes cast so far.

That's according to U.S. Election Lab, which gathers all this data together.

What stands out to you guys fro the numbers so far in Florida?

Start with you, Jason.

>>Sort of analyzing earl voting is always kind of a bit of a voodoo science, right?

Because, I mean, we see this every, every, every election cycle.

One part the other is sort of claiming, like huge tidings out of the early vote.

But the problem -- the challenge is you don't really know what the final electorate going to like.

It's all kind of meaningles until you see the final turnout.

You know, that said, there is a there's a large Republican lead right now.

I think that's consistent with the voter registration lead they've built in the state.

There's nothing in these numbers yet that signifies like some sort of extra energized turnout on one side or the other.

I think you're probably also seeing some of the impact of some of the the election law changes tha Republicans have pushed through that have made mail balloting much harder, which Democrats use pretty heavily four years ago.

So, you know, the question now just becomes will you see Democrats turnout in proportionatel large margins on Election Day?

And the other thing to keep in mind here is we just we have no sort of sense yet on how NPAs are breaking.

And that's ultimately what determines these many of these races.

>>Yeah.

it is difficult to extrapolate right from, from early voting as to what' going to happen in the States.

Do you agree that the election law changes that Jason referred to there might might have an impact?

>>Oh, yeah.

Plus the fact of, you know, Covid changed how people voted in 2020.

So we don't know where these people are voting, but or less people voting by mail now or who who would have voted by mail in 2020 but aren't going to do it this time because there's no pandemic.

You know are the various changes about, you know, people getting just wiped, you know, their your mail on request getting wiped every two years?

Does that also play?

People might not realize it until there's -- oh, well, I guess you have to vote in person the or something like that.

So yeah.

You have no idea.

Are people -- are people voting who wouldn't otherwise vote or didn't vote in 2020?

Or they're just like, you know, voting differently.

That's the thing you don't know.

>>Does that sort of jive with with what you're hearing, Curtis?

>>Absolutely.

It does.

And I think one of the things here, because we've been seeing the long lines and everybody's like, oh, I was just at the library yesterday with my kids and we even saw the lines are lines are very long.

And I think a lot of people on first glance, you look and you see and you're like, wow, a lot of people are coming out to vote.

But to your point, I mean, it kind of is on par with the number, especially when you look at the Republican numbers.

It kind of it's kind of on pa with the registered voter base.

They've kind of built along the area now.

>>About a million advantage.

>>Exactly, exactly.

Now, of course, you know when you look at those pockets where those Democrats are, then you will see those numbers like you look at Orange County and you're like, “Okay, well, that's where they're hiding,” when it comes to when you look at the state of Florida.

>>Do Democrats to have anything to point to?

I mean, Donald Trump's going to win in Florida, isn't he?

>>I think it's safe to think of Florida right now as a Republican-leaning state.

So you would think Trump is the favorite.

But, you know, again, we're talking about these are just -- these are just showing us the registration of voters that have voted not how they've actually voted.

And so, you know one of the things you come back to i during the Republican primary, there's a really consistent anti-Trump vote among Republicans.

So you have no idea how that might manifest itself.

On the flip side, you know, there have been a lot of concerns in Democratic circles that a Kamala Harris has been losing ground a little bit with, voters of color, particularly vote men, but male voters of color.

So you don't really know that every Democratic vote is a Kamala Harris vote, right?

So there's just ultimately really no way t really extrapolate from these.

>> Yeah.

I think like, Hillary Clinton was winning the early vote in 2016.

So, you know, who knows?

>>Let's just quickly talk about Rick Scott's reelection efforts against Debbie Mucarsel Powell in the U.S. Senate race.

Scott gave his campaig another million and a half bucks this week.

Both candidates were in Central Florida, I think, on Tuesday.

How do you see that race poised, Steve?

>>If Scott wins by, you know, more than 1.1%, there would be a landslide for him.

That's the most he's ever won by in all three of his victories., you know?

So he always he always wins, but he wins close.

Then again, like you said, he can just put as much money as he wants to to just, if he needs a few million here or there just to get some more ads, he can do that.

>> Another close race no doubt - in the Senate race.

I want to talk about Puerto Rican voters and their role in Florida this election.

Following comments at Donald Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden at the weekend, in which one speaker described Puerto Rico as, quote, “a floating island of garbage”.

Puerto Ricans make up a sizable voting group in our region.

We talked about that at our recent NewsNight Conversations discussion in Osceola County.

>>If we look a some of the population movement of Puerto Ricans in our area is sort of resembles what happened in the 1940s and 50s in in the northeastern state out there.

And we see kind of like there's been a shift in that population here and then and Florida has the state with the most Puerto Ricans of all the states out here.

So definitely growing, the numbers are changing.

But as long as they're economic opportunities, people are going to come here and they're going to have an impact in the community.

>>Well, that was Fernando Rivera from the Puerto Rico Research Hub at UCF saying Puerto Ricans have a significant impact on the community.

I guess the question.

Let's start with you, Steve, is whether they'll have significant impact at the polls?

>> Yeah.

They always seem to do.

Like Democrats seem to think following the influx of people from Maria, from Puerto Rico, that that would help them.

But that is not the case.

Osceola, went red in 2022.

But, that that garbag comment from MSG seems to have really broken through like to, to nonpolitical people.

Like we all know follow politics and all of us, you know, but like, people who really are not paying attention to politics.

>>Youve been getting a reaction, right?

>>Yeah.

In the Puerto Rican community, like, yeah, we'd be, you know, our, talk to people in Osceola County were just like, it' they're just angry about this.

It's people who don't follow politics or, you know, on Facebook or just, you know, talking about on Facebook, talking about it with, like, you know, text and things like that.

So, whether that will actually lead to votes or anything, you know, or changed votes, or people turning out because the Hispanic turnout for Democrats was rock bottom in 2022, who knows?

>>Well, let's talk about some local races, because there's a lot of local races, in our area that, that you guys have been watching closely.

And I'm going to ask you what stands out to you.

What are you looking for on Tuesday night, Jason?

>>I think folks here know that, Republicans hold a supermajority in th Florida legislature right now.

That --the question of that supermajority will be decided in Orlando.

Just think about it this way.

There are 120 seats in the state House.

There are only about a dozen competitive races statewide.

Half of them are in Orlando there.

And they're all over right there in East Orlando, around UCF.

They're in Seminole County They're in the theme park area.

Democrats need to flip fiv seats to end the super majority.

They could do that in Orlando alone, you know, or, you know, if you're a Republican who wants to maintain the supermajority, you win these Orlando races.

You're in the you've got it in the bag.

>>Steve, what about you?

What are you watching?

>>Well, yeah.

Like he said, like, the all these, like, you know, state House races in Central Florida, like, most of them like these surrounding Orlando on paper, are Democratic leaning.

If they were in their current configuration in 2020, they would have been won by Bide Nate Douglas, the Democrat, versus Susan Placentia, here in like the UCF area that that's a big one.

A lot of money coming in there.

And, you have, David Smith versus Sarah Henry, in the southern, Seminole County area.

All of these, you know, on paper, you know, should be should be leaning Democratic, or went red in the in the re wave of 2022 due to low turnout.

And the question is, was that just a low turnout for Democrats situation in ‘22 or is that just going to be just the status quo for Florida going forward?

In all of these, you know, quote unquote Democratic leaning seat are just going to go Republican?

>>Yeah, Curtis?

>>You know, I one I've been following closely is, a House District 45 race with, Leonard Spencer, the Democrat and an incumbent representative, Carolina Amesty, very interesting race here.

And, of course, you know, with, with the situatio surrounding her, the indictments and everything.

But, you know, I think it'll be interesting to see what happens with this particular race.

Leonard Spencer, businessman, former Disney executive, trying to trying to unseat her in this particular race here.

I, I can't say whethe it will be a close race or not.

I mean, I think that with, with the district being redrawn, I mean, we know that that that particular distric for a long time was Democratic.

But that things flip, you know, when everything else was redrawn.

But it'll be interesting to see where it goes.

I know in speaking with Leonard Spencer earlier this week, I mean, he says they're doing all they can to make sure people know the issues that are important to him and also spoke with Carolina Amesty as well.

And she says that she's out talking to people in the communities, trying to make sure they understand what she has done already an what she's hoping to continue.

>>And Steve, we haven't even mentioned state attorney's races.

Right.

So there's a national online magazine “Bolts” recently identified the 30 most important criminal justice elections across the country.

Two of them are in Florida, including here in Orlando.

And these are the state attorney races in Orlando and Tampa, where the governor suspended the incumbent, the independently elected prosecuto in this case, Monique Worrell, replaced him with Andrew Bain.

Now Monique Worrell iis running against Andrew Bain to get her job back.

That election is in the hands of Orlando -- or Orange and Osceola County voters.

>>I want to note that we are recording this on Thursday.

Early voting ends this weekend, November 2nd or 3rd, depending on your county.

Meanwhile, you can join the conversation on social media or at WUCF TV on Facebook and Instagram, and you'll find us on X at NewsNightWUCF.

Okay, next tonight, Florida's constitutional amendments.

There are six proposed amendments on the ballot this election.

As we've discussed on the show, two are drawing most of the attention: abortion access and recreational marijuana legalization.

As a Florida resident, former President Trump has had a few things to say about the amendment supporting three on marijuana, opposing four on abortion.

The governor has aggressively campaigned against both, and he did so again this week in Clearwater.

>>Whe you're reading these amendments, if you don't know what some of the words mean, if you don't know what this would do, if you don't have a very firm sense of that, you should vote no.

And I don't car where you stand on these issues.

This is about somethin even bigger than normal issues.

This is something that is going to be a part of Florida forever.

>>Ron DeSantis, there.

Well, NewsNight asked Florid political analyst Susan McManus about the impact the amendments might have on the election as a whole.

>>What everyone is watching is whether amendments 3 and 4, but particularly amendment 4 the abortion initiative, how much that will gin up turnout and some crossover voting.

Obviously, the proponents of that amendment are countin on a hefty number of Republicans crossing over to vote yes on that.

And they're also counting it on a way to stimulate the turnout, particularly of young women.

So we will see.

But in terms of the passage of that amendment, the polls that have been taken have been very close, but they have shown around 30, 35 40% Republicans voting for that.

But it's still narrowly, passing on the 61% as the poll that was done right, most recently.

>> McManus there.

Well, the governor staked a lot on defeating these, amendments, Curtis.

We've got some polling on it.

What does it show?

>>Take first I guess, amendment Amendment 3 looking at that one, you know, it's very interesting here by looking at the polling, it's looking like this will actually pass here in the state of Florida.

But I guess it kind of just depends, again, on the voter turnout and who's actually coming out to vote and how they vote.

When you look at it, that's what the polling says.

And that's honestly, you know when you look across the board here, I'm going to say that while it shows that, you know, amendment people will likely pass as well.

I think it may ended up being it may end up being a little bit close, close counter here because again, 60% is what we're looking at.

Yeah, that's the threshold here.

So I think it's a it'll be very interesting.

We're seeing these early numbers of voter turnout right now.

We still got a little ways to go here, especially when you come out.

Look at the next few days a well as on Election Day turnout.

>>I mean, some i the legislature would like that, the amount needed to be even higher around 60- 67%.

What do you think i going to happen there?

>>Yeah.

The key is the 60% like a lot of states with these were have successful like abortio rights amendments on the ballot.

They just needed 50.

So they essentially, you know, it's essentially the same as like Democratic turnout trying to get out, you know, young women, things like that.

Like essentially that became like, you know, Democratic, you know, campaign, the, you know, abortion rights, you know, campaign.

But the families at 60 here, they need Republicans, so they can't really do that.

So they can't make it seem too partisan.

So it just it's very, very tricky for them.

>>I mean, you could have people crossing over people that vote Republican but also, voting yes on the amendment 4, for example.

>>Oh, absolutely.

I mean, polls consistently show both of these issues.

They cross party lines right there.

There's quite a bit of support for both of them among Republicans.

These are not just partisan issues.

Like to everybody's point, 60 is an enormously high threshold.

I mean, there's a lot of, a lot of ink has been spilled on on just how Ron DeSantis sort of stormed a reelection in 2022.

He did not get 60%.

No, no partisan politician will get 60% of the vote when they're faced with an in a fair district, a nongerrymandered district against an opponent from the other party.

So if these are going to pas and it's going to be very close, it's going to require bipartisan support, cross partisan support.

>>I mean there is enough I guess a lot of it's going to come down to who is still undecide to make up that sort of 2 or 3% that is needed for those amendments to pass.

I want to talk about the DeSanti administration's tactics.

Yeah.

I mean, it' definitely raised some eyebrows.

I mean, let's talk first of all about the his threat to -- his administrations threat to TV stations that are running ads supportive of amendment 4.

I mean, the group that took out these TV ads in question is suing, right?

To stop the state from I guess, enforcing its threats.

There was a court development on that this week, right?

What's the status there?

>>Yeah.

The same judge, Mark Walker, who initially I think the phrase in ther was, “it's the First Amendment, stupid.” >>He' becoming a very familiar name.

>> Yeah.

So he's a he' also very quotable.

So.

>>Yeah.

>>Yeah, he, essentially just, a doubled down on that saying this, this is jus sort of a First Amendment issue.

You can't, you know, threaten people or threaten TV stations for playing an ad.

>>The Florida Department of Health, Jason, seems to be playing a pretty significant role in opposing amendments 3 and 4, right?

I mean, how unusual is it to se that kind of state involvement?

>>Oh, this is this is utterly unprecedented in Florida and in a state with a long history of, petition drives for constitutional amendments that, you know, politician in Tallahassee despise, right?

I mean, just a couple of years ago, there was a petitio drive to raise the minimum wage.

You know, Jeb Bush famously hated the amendment to to mandate lowe class sizes in public schools.

But no governor before has ever used state resources and weaponized state powers against citizen-led petition drives.

The way this governor has, you know, the the governor's office and all these state agencies have repeatedly refused to answer basic question about how much they're spending and where they're pulling this money from.

So it's it's forced reporter like us to do a lot of digging in public records to try and figure this out.

And from what we can tell, it looks like the administration has now spent more than $19 million of taxpayer money on this campaign.

And this is an enormous amount of money.

It's never been done before.

The government has never gotten involved with campaigning against an election that we're we're also trusting it to sort of administer fairly, right?

None of this is -- none of -- we've never seen anything like this.

>>I mean, do you agree that it's weaponization?

I mean, the governor would say he's using state's resources to protect Floridians, right, from what he sees as, malign actors on the other side.

>>Yeah.

Like in his mind, this is, these are bad proposals.

It's a it's a whole nonpartisan saying.

So he's just looking at it first, the governor and saying that, well, that, you know, there' there's things wrong with this.

There are things wrong with that.

So I'm going to use my, I guess, you know, bully pulpit to, to oppose them.

But like he said, this is just unprecedented to do it in such a huge, sweeping way, including, even the Department of Transportation, getting involved in this.

It's just it's it's a lot.

It's a lot.

>>But the governor's objecting to the fact that there is no, I guess, in the amendment there's no definition of fetal viability.

He's also concerned abou the parental consent part of it.

>>Yeah.

And, Steve, remember, nobody is saying the governor can't go out and personally campaign against these amendments.

And people, you know, he has an obligation to speak up, use his voice to say what he thinks about issues of importance.

Nobody is saying he can't go out and raise private money -- political money, like every other political campaign does.

What we're talking about her is taking money from taxpayers, many of whom support these amendments.

Remember, whether or not we've talked about 60%, these need to get 60%.

>>More than half.

>>Yeah, yeah.

Polls consistently show both of these amendments are popular with more than a majority of Floridians, right?

So you're taking money from those Floridians and paying to try and stop these.

That's what the objection is here.

It's not that he's campaigning against them himself.

It's the fact that he's dragging public resources into it.

>>And I think, though, just really quickly here I think the thing that he said, and I know he spoke here locally at Winter Garden aways bac and then he spoke recently here.

His whole -- his whole bit here is about protection.

That's what he's saying.

It's like, hey, I'm doing this as, as a means to, you know, protect people in Florida.

I'm making sure they understand because he wants people to understan what's in the amendment, even go so far as saying, hey, parents, make sure you read this.

Do you know that there's a possibility that your childre may be able to get an abortion without your permission here?

So he says that it's okay to use those.

From what he's trying to say here is it's okay to use those state resources because I'm doing a public service by, you know, letting them know, hey, this is why this is not the way to go.

>>And we heard that poin in the soundbite that we played just now.

Be sure to check out WUCF's Voter Guide, by the way, with in-depth information on races in Central Florida and throughout the state.

You can find it at wucf.org/vote.

Well, this election might give us a pretty good indication as to whether celebrity endorsements work.

Kamala Harris's campaign has picked up many, including several Puert Rican stars, Bruce Springsteen and, of course, Taylor Swift.

The Democrats hope she can help juice Gen-Z turnout, which they believe will benefi the vice president's campaign.

Some studies have shown youn people more energized than ever, driven by candidate policies.

And in Florida, the high stakes amendments on the ballot that we just talked about.

Well, NewsNight talked with one 20 year old UCF student who is planning on voting for the first time.

And I asked her what issues she thinks are important to her age group.

>>I think the biggest ones that I'm concerned about, and the ones that are talked about the most are going to be amendment 3 and 4, just that legalization of marijuana, as well as the topic of abortion and the government's role in that.

I think just because you're looking at such a wide range of people, you're looking at everybody from a college student to a six year old individual who may need the legalization of marijuana for various reasons.

And you're looking at women, all women who can go through the most tragic things to, you know, just not being in the right spot in her life and kind of being able to jus make that decision for herself.

So I think those are going to be the two biggest ones that I talk about and look at, and the other people will.

>>All right.

Well, it seems like that person is motivated by the abortion and marijuana issues.

Spectrum News 13 has done som reporting on this issue as well.

Do we get an idea about what is motivating young voters here in Florida?

You know, a lot of it is opportunity, Steve.

That's what it all comes down to for a lot of young people.

That's what we've been seeing.

You know, nowadays a lot are saying that, hey, they -- >>So economics?

>>Economics.

That's what it comes to, you know, hey, I can't afford to buy a home.

I can, even if they are buying homes they're doing so later in life.

And so they're saying that, hey, these type of things need thes things need to change in order for me to have access so that I can, you know, make the money that I need.

And right now, they're not able to do that.

>>Cost of living continuing to be an issue.

What do you hear?

>>Well, yeah, definitely.

Like, she said the abortion and marijuana are just two, two major issues, you know, for young people.

But again, you just don't know if young people are going to vote.

That's always been the case when they lowered the age from 21 to 18 in the early 70s, it was, oh, it's gone.

The young people are going to flood the polls.

And they just they just never do at the sort of level that the older people do.

>>I mean, that is true.

Young people have historicall proven pretty tough to turn out.

Do the parties think they can change that in this election?

>>Yeah, yeah.

I think you run into a couple of challenges, a lot of young folks that that really sometimes don't start paying attention until like a week before the election.

And there's, you know, they need a lot of help to get registered, to vote ahead of time and to get them prepared to vote.

You know, there are, there are groups really trying to work out, reach out to this demographic and help.

I mean, you've got groups that are going, you know, through dorms right now on college campuses, just reminding people to vote, getting the their early voting information.

They're also just sort of unique challenges that young people face sometimes, I think.

So, for instance, we've seen like really long lines at UCF's polling place.

Polling early voting station here.

And that's partially because a lot of university students need to update their address when they vote.

And so that is contributing to long lines here.

That's the sort of thin you can actually do in advance.

Call the Supervisor of Elections office.

Change your address before you go to vote.

That can help smooth that process.

So trying to find ways to try and smooth out the kinks to help encourage more young peopl to get involved and make it as painless as possible, I think is really important.

>>What about the politics of Gen Z?

I mean, some polls have shown that Gen Z males seem to be more open t to President Trump than females.

I guess that sort of reflect the broader electorate, right?

I mean, do we see a trend among young people, as we've seen with, Latinos and Black Americans, of more openness to the former president, or are they still, do you think a reliable vote for Democrats?

>>We don't know.

I mean, we'll find out next, you know, next week.

But, it's quite possible that, teah, young Gen Z seem to be even more than millennials, like, you know, especially men, you know, possibly, like, ope to voting for Trump, but, like, will those people turn out?

Young men turn out to vote, you know, even less than young women do.

You know, it's it's a question of.

Yeah, they may they might like Trump.

They may be like, you know, the people they listen to the podcast to listen to, like, you know, may make them, may want to possibly lean towards voting for Trump.

Have they registered?

Have they, you know, thought about it until this week?

You know, that that's that's the question.

>>Well, if you're a young voter, you can show us you're ready to vote, post a photo of yourself exercising your right to vote on social media, using the #ReadytoVote2024.

Do not take a photo of your ballots, though.

Meanwhile, you'll find a link to voting resources from Preserving Democracy, a partnership between WNET New York and PBS stations around the country, including WUCF.

It's on our website, WUCF.org/NewsNight.

But that is all the time we have for this week.

My thanks to Jason Garcia, Steve Lemongello, and Curtis McCloud.

Thank you guy so much for coming in.

>>Yeah.

That was fun.

Thank you.

>>Appreciate your time today.

Good conversation.

We'll see you next Friday night at 8:30 here on WUCF.

In the meantime, from all of us here at NewsNight, take car and have a great week.

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