[INSPRATIONAL MUSIC STING] - Everything you ever wanted or needed to know about politics right here.

Julie Roginsky, Democratic Strategist and Principal of BARO Strategies.

And also Dale Florio, Republican Strategist, Managing Partner, Princeton Public Affairs Group.

Julie and Dale, good to see you.

- Good to see you.

- Hey, Steve.

- We are taping this only a week after the election.

We'll be seeing a little bit later.

So, let's not date ourselves.

Julie, the Democrats got crushed because?

- We don't know how to communicate.

We don't know how to speak to voters in their own voice and on their own level.

We preach and we scold, and we don't listen.

That's why we lost.

- And Dale?

Donald Trump and the Republicans taking over in Congress won for a lot of reasons.

The most significant is?

- Just energy, right?

I mean, you can say anything you want about Donald Trump.

He just creates energy, talks in simple sentences that people understand.

To Julie's point, right?

I mean, listen, I think the Democrats put the Vice President in a very, just, almost impossible to win situation.

We can talk about what she could have done or said, but just a difficult situation to even have the President go through that first debate.

There should have been a serious conversation- - President Biden?

- How he chooses not to run again.

It was tough.

- Julie, let me ask you something.

You've always been the kind of, so-called Democratic strategist, who's never afraid to be critical of the Democrats when they need to be criticized.

Why the heck do you think the Democrats or the leaders in the Democratic Party, whatever that means, didn't have an honest discussion a couple years ago and say, "We're gonna talk to the President.

He clearly can't run again.

Let's have an open primary.

Let's see who wins."

Why was that so hard?

- Because I think when you're working in the White House, two things happen.

And this happens in the Governor's office as well here in New Jersey.

This happens everywhere, right?

One is you start drinking the Kool-Aid because you support your principal.

That's why you're there.

You're loyal to your principal.

And if you're not loyal to your principal, you gotta get out.

So from that perspective, clearly they were loyal to their boss.

And two is that, I think they probably assumed that because they saw him day-to-day and he was functioning just fine.

And from people who I know who see him all the time, he is very much with it.

Maybe he's not speaking as eruditely as he once did, although he was never particularly erudite.

But you know, he's not- - But not in a public forum.

Not in a public forum.

- But, but, well, this was the first time we saw him in a public forum.

And that's, I think, part of the problem, right?

Is that we didn't know how he was going to do.

None of them probably assumed he was going to do as poorly as he did until he did.

But I think a lot of it has to do with just, look, why did Phil Murphy's staff defend him on some really indefensible things?

And why did Chris Christie's staff defend him in some indefensible things?

And I can go back, you know, governor after governor, it's not a partisan issue.

- So, the Emperor has clothes on, even when the Emperor does not have clothes, Julie?

- It is your job to convince everybody else that the Emperor has clothes.

That's the hallmark of- - But what about to the Emperor?

- I'm sorry?

- What about to the Emperor?

Don't you need to tell the Emperor, "Hey, you're naked."

- If you are a good staffer, and most importantly, if you have a principal who wants to hear it, then yes.

But I have to tell you, and Dale correct me if I'm wrong, I have worked for very, very many politicians, and there are very few and far between who actually want to hear the truth.

- Hey, listen.

I agree with Julie.

I mean, she's absolutely right.

It was a hard situation.

Very, very difficult.

I'm just saying that they put the vice president almost in an unwinnable situation, right?

Just very difficult for her to win.

- Let me ask this.

Go ahead, Julie 'cause I wanna talk policy as well as, 'cause both of you- - Yeah.

- Go ahead, Julie.

- Yeah, the other thing I wanna add, and Dale touched on this a little bit is, look, I think the American people ever since, at least since the 2008 crash, but probably even prior to that, really hate politicians.

They want people who seem genuine, right?

And so, for example, Chris Christie always did very well, even in a Blue state, because he seemed genuine.

You might like him or not like him, but he seemed like a real guy.

Hillary Clinton didn't seem so genuine, but Donald Trump did, which is why I think he won in 2020.

Biden was a real guy.

Scranton Joe, right?

People understood him.

And then Trump was... And this time around, Trump despite being around for 10 years, still doesn't seem like a politician.

He still seems like a real guy.

Now, you might debate that issue, but that's how he is perceived by people.

And I think for the next person who runs on the Democratic ticket, they have to really be authentic.

Authenticity is the key.

They have to stop being worried about pissing off one coalition or another.

They have to speak plainly.

Be themselves.

And that's really, really crucial going forward.

- Talk about pissing off coalitions, Dale.

Let's talk policy.

The president, President Trump argues that he is going to engage in mass deportation.

He talks about tariffs immediately.

China in particular, tariffs in China.

Talks about a whole range of things.

"On Day 1, gonna be done."

You understand government better than most.

How hard is it gonna be for him even with Republican Congress to act on those things effectively?

Please, Dale.

- I am sure that there's gonna be dozens and dozens of executive orders that attempt to do some of these things.

- Explain to folks executive orders versus going through the legislative process, Dale.

- Sure thing.

An executive order is delivered by the Chief Executive, be it a president or governor that directs a government agency to do this or to do that.

Or it puts in a policy that needs to be followed.

Now, those executive orders can be challenged in court by a Congress, but if he has both houses, that may not be the case, or somebody else could challenge it.

But executive orders tend to carry a lot of weight and are very successful, especially at the presidential level.

So, he can do all those things that you just described, Steve.

- Can he do that with tax policy?

Can he extend the 2017 tax breaks or tax cuts, if you will, for wealthier folks or corporations and others?

Can he do that by himself?

My understanding is he can't.

- When it comes to fiscal policy, it's a different story.

He's not on solid ground when it comes to those types of things.

- Julie, tax policy.

The president wants to cut taxes for whom, Julie Roginsky?

- Elon Musk, the person that delivered the White House to him.

I mean, the Trump tax cuts the first time around truly benefited the very wealthiest among us disproportionately.

That's not a debate, that's just a fact.

But I will say for anybody who voted for him because they thought that there'd be mass deportations or because they thought somehow you'd be paying less because of tariffs.

'cause China was gonna pay for it, I've got bad news.

You want your strawberries to be about 15 bucks a pint?

Support the deportations.

You want your iPhone to be about $3,000 that you buy for your kids or for yourself for Christmas?

Ask for those tariffs.

I mean, much like Mexico didn't build that wall in the first term, nobody's paying for these deportations and nobody's paying for these tariffs except the American people.

And I think it all sounds very good on paper, but in reality, when it happens, it's gonna be awful.

And by the way, for all the Latinos and places like Passaic who voted for Donald Trump, when he comes for Abuela, you have nobody to blame by yourself.

Because the best interview that I saw recently was with a shop owner, I think somewhere either in New York or New Jersey, who's Latino, who said, "Yes, I voted for Trump.

But he's not gonna be coming after families.

He's just gonna be coming after the bad guys."

Well, no, actually, this person who's gonna be in charge of these deportations said, "If you are here illegally and you've been here for 30 or 40 years and you married a citizen and you have children who were born here, you're getting outta this country.

And if you wanna keep staying together as a family, everybody's gotta get out."

- Yeah, you don't believe that's gonna happen, do you?

- Do I?

- I know, Julie.

I know you do.

I'm asking Dale.

(laughs) - Okay.

- The devil is always in the details, right, Steve?

Campaigns are full of buzzwords.

Mass deportation.

Immigration was a huge issue.

He sold it.

The logistics of what he ultimately does could be an entirely different story.

- And tax policy?

- I'd be really surprised if there was mass deportations.

I really would be surprised- - Would you be surprised if there are tax cuts extended, Dale?

- I would not be surprised if tax cuts are extended.

Maybe not by executive order, but I think there'll be an attempting Congress.

There may not be enough votes for that, but- - Do you think the majority of Americans who don't make $200,000, $300,000 or more, or multimillionaires, billionaires, et cetera?

Do you think the vast majority of folks who voted for President Trump will get those benefits?

- I think if they see buying eggs at the grocery store going down, I don't think that they're gonna care if somebody that's making more money than me gets a tax cut 'cause they wanna see what impact it has on them.

If it helps them keep their job, if it helps them get better prices on things that they wanna buy.

You know, we understand how tax policy works, right?

The people that have more money, invest that money, which then creates other jobs and keeps businesses going.

- Complex stuff.

Go ahead, Julie.

Final word, 20 seconds.

Go.

- 20 seconds.

January 20th, 12:01 PM, Donald Trump is gonna take credit for the greatest economy in the world, Joe Biden's economy.

So, let's see what happens with his economy.

But at 12:01 PM, every Republican's gonna say, "We're living in the age of prosperity."

- Julie Roginsky.

Dale Florio.

Interesting stuff.

Fascinating times.

Thank you, Julie.

Thank you, Dale.

Good stuff.

- Thanks, Steve.

Stay with us.

You got it, we'll be right back.

- [Narrator] State of Affairs with Steve Adubato is a production of the Caucus Educational Corporation.

Celebrating 30 years in public broadcasting.

Funding has been provided by PSE&G, Holy Name.

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

Johnson & Johnson.

New Jersey Sharing Network.

New Brunswick Development Corporation.

Delta Dental of New Jersey.

Community FoodBank of New Jersey.

And by NJM Insurance Group.

Promotional support provided by New Jersey Globe.

And by NJBIZ.

- (Narrator) Since 1903, PSEG has worked to keep our commitment to customers and communities, to keep your lights on and homes warm.

We’re there when challenges strike like storms or economic uncertainty.

We're preparing for tomorrow by working to replace aging infrastructure, provide carbon free nuclear energy, and deliver energy efficient options to customers.

PSEG, powering progress.