(upbeat music) - Good evening and welcome to Horizonte, a show that takes a look at current issues through a Hispanic lens.

I'm your host, Catherine Anaya.

Tonight we discuss how the growing Latino population will continue to play a bigger role in this presidential election year.

According to the Pew Research Center, there are 36.1 million Latinos who are eligible to vote this year.

That is up from 32.3 million in 2020.

That represents 50% of the growth in overall eligible voters in those four years.

This year, Latinos are expected to make up 14.7% of all eligible voters, a new record, and that's despite the fact that only 53% of all Latinos were eligible to cast a ballot in 2022.

Here to discuss the importance of the Latino vote in 2024 is Jason Barasa, a partner in the political consulting firm, Veritas, and Dr. Edward Vargas, an associate professor at Arizona State University, and a senior analyst at BSP Research, which helps organizations reach a diverse population with services like polling, focus groups and more.

Thank you, gentlemen, for being here.

We appreciate it.

- Thank you.

- Okay, so this is a topic that I know you are both ready to dive into.

So let's just start with the talk that we heard the last two election cycles, which was that Latino voters are shifting to the right.

Starting with you, Dr. Vargas, is that fact or fiction?

- [Edward] I would say, first of all, thank you for having us and this is such an important conversation, so thank you for having us on.

- [Catherine] You bet.

- I would say it is fiction.

In fact, I've got four reasons why I say this.

One has to do with a new study that my colleague, Eric (indistinct) Gonzalez over in Michigan State just did using some cooperative election survey data.

And what it shows is starting in 2014, you actually see, while you see a little bit of decline in the democratic share, you actually see this being taken up into the independent bin.

And actually, you also see a reduction of Latino Republicans moving into that space as well.

So you see a rise, actually, in the independent side.

Two has to do with the 2022 election, the midterm election.

We should see...

I've seen actually a decrease in support for the Democratic party after the 2020 election.

And we didn't see that.

We didn't see that in particular states where Latinos are growing exponentially, specifically like in Arizona, Texas, and Nevada, which are really important areas.

So we didn't see the results happen there.

Third has to do with the GOP really doesn't have a Latino policy priorities.

I mean, their policy path is trying to target immigrants and a lot of folks in our community.

And fourth has to do with that this election cycle is really being...

It's interesting because the priorities are much varied than in the past.

While the 2020 election was much more about the economy, this election is about abortion rights.

So the diversity of the policy and how it impacts Latinos will differ, so I don't see it happening.

- What about you, Jason?

Do you see this rise among Latinos becoming more independent?

- To say that it's a rise, I think is a little bit of a misnomer.

I think that when you look at the Hispanic and the Latino voting population, what you're seeing is similar that we've seen in past years.

They still self identify as Democrats.

Most of the population is still identifying and still saying in polls that they are on the side of the Democratic party or at least supporting issues that are being put forward by the Democratic party.

But one interesting thing is happening.

As we are studying this demographic more and more, we are starting to see some trends that are similar to a broader electorate.

Some of the issues that demographics within the Latino voter population identify with on a broader scale, yeah, they are so similar.

So for example, when you're looking at males in the younger demographic, 20 to 35, 20 to 40 age range, there's more propensity for them to be more of a MAGA or a Trump voter than a democratic voter.

And that's not to say that there's a wholesale abandonment within that demographic.

You're just seeing that that demographic tends to be more open to the idea of voting for Trump.

- Well, keeping in mind that we're talking about the Latino population, which is diverse within itself, is it still early to tell if there are any trends that you're seeing so far with this election cycle?

I mean, it is obviously, just the spring, but a lot can change between now and the fall.

But what trends are you seeing?

- Well, I would say that, one, the Latino electorate is about nine years younger than the median voter, which is really important here because we see an increase of young people voting.

Every year, it's always every election cycle, larger and larger increase.

There's also a big difference here on education.

Education can actually be a really important key component to the next coming election, particularly among those that have high school completion, have a high school degree.

Latinos are becoming much more educated than in the past and much more...

The younger people in particular are much more progressive, relative to years in the past.

So I could see really close, like North Carolina's gonna be actually a really interesting state to watch, given the increase also of educated folks moving into like, for example, the research triangle.

So education is key here.

Again, Latino, young voters care about abortion, they care about healthcare, they care about childcare for their children.

So much more of a diverse set of interests in terms of their top salient issues.

- So when you hear that, would you say that that is equal to what is happening in Arizona, what we're seeing across the country, Jason, or is it different with more specific issues in Arizona?

- No, I think it's consistent across the country.

Obviously, each state's gonna be different and the issues that are impacting their voters are gonna be particular to that state.

In Arizona, for example, border issues are much more at the forefront than they are gonna be in a more northern state or a non-border state.

So those issues come to the forefront and you would expect that the population would be more educated on those issues because it is talked about much more, and so it's more of a real life for them.

So in that regard, we are seeing a voting population here in Arizona that's particular to certain things.

There are other issues that are gonna be at the forefront, for example, abortion.

That issue is gonna be much more at the forefront and it's gonna be consistent across the board nationally as far as its interest within the population nationally as it is here in Arizona.

- And could a specific issue like that, Dr. Vargas, cause somebody who's voted one particular way, pretty much all their life, but on this one issue might prompt them to vote differently?

- Yeah, great question.

So two things I want to point out here.

One has to do with a recent Unidos poll that of folks, Latinos, who said that immigration was their top issue, the follow up question was, what should Biden or the Congress do?

What should they do about immigration?

The top choice is finding a path to citizenship and amnesty.

It's not border security, it wasn't build a wall.

What we're seeing here in Arizona with this new SB 1070 version two is that it's inspiring a lot of people who weren't necessarily that active, and they were maybe children at the time of SB 1070, but now they're in positions of power.

Just recently Lucha announced that they're gonna knock on a million doors this coming election.

So I think, in fact, this anti-immigrant rhetoric, which is being pushed by the Republican party, is actually going to inspire and improve Latino turnout.

- So what would you say about the Latinos who are voting Republican or have voted Republican?

Are you still seeing the gains that Republicans saw among Latino voters in key states like Florida, here in Arizona?

I mean, how would you describe the Republican Latino voter?

- I would think, one, the first thing is the campaign professionals are doing their job.

They're analyzing the issues and they're digesting it down beyond just the top level.

So for example, on education, for example, one, is that an important issue to voters across the nation?

Yeah, it is, but what about education is important?

So let's dive down into that.

And what we're seeing is the Republican party has identified a few issues that are incredibly important to the Latino voter.

They're focused in on that demographic and they're talking to them in such a way as to start shifting their opinions.

That's what they should be doing.

The counter to that is to have the Democratic party and their spokespeople and their candidates come forward with making their case, focusing in on their issues to try to bring those voters back into the fold and back into the Democratic party.

- All right, question for both of you.

Do Hispanic voters appear influenced more now by a single issue or several issues than in previous cycles?

Because you're both mentioning a variety of different issues.

So is it a multiple level of issues that are driving voters right now?

- Yes, abortion, for example.

Climate change.

Education, as my colleague brings up here, President.

Biden had really strong policy related to student loan forgiveness.

There's conversations happening right now about what would tuition for community colleges look like, and we know that Latinos are most impacted, actually, with living in what are called educational deserts, meaning they don't live in places that have four year institutions.

So these are these broad diversity array of policy issues will help, I think, the Democratic party.

- We live in the age of information, so there's information that's readily available to the population.

One of the products of that is the electorate is educating itself and seeking out information.

So issues that they are learning about are becoming more of a priority than they were in the past.

So, to say that we are seeing a diversification in issues, I don't think is necessarily exactly correct.

I think that voters cared about that previously in previous cycles, but it didn't necessarily come forward.

As we've become more sophisticated with processing the information, digesting it down, and then turning that into campaign messaging, what we're seeing is an effective use of targeted messaging that's now moving those voters forward.

So the end product is, yes, we are seeing a diversification, but really what it is is more specificity and how we're communicating to the voter.

- So if it comes down to former President Trump and President Biden, what does each candidate have to do to get the Latino vote?

- Yeah, I'll start with one, for President Biden, is be more presidential, meaning do more public appearances.

He didn't show up at the Super Bowl, which is a great opportunity.

So he hasn't been seen in public for a little bit.

So that's one thing.

And on the other side for Donald Trump is quit vilifying and demonizing our community.

Stop calling us rapists, stop trying to demonize us as othering and othering us.

Stop using scapegoating individuals, for example, the, and bless her soul, the nursing student in Georgia.

This attacking of our community is not gonna help their cause.

- [Catherine] Jason.

- I think it's gonna come down to the sophistication of the individual campaigns and what they are identifying.

A lot of people like to think, well, if I talk about a particular issue, I'm going to be able to shift a voter one way or the other.

I would challenge that and say, it's really not about shifting the voter, it's identifying what issue that voter already agrees with you on and then communicating that they're the candidate of choice for that voter.

So it's gonna come down to both the Biden campaign and the Trump campaign, digesting the Hispanic voter and the Latino voter in finding where there's similarities and then effectively moving those voters to the polls on election day.

- In one minute, what would you project for voter turnout among Latinos?

- The short, quick, it'll be historic, but it's always historic.

(laughing) Just as our population transition into voting age.

I think we're gonna see some really interesting surprises down ballot.

And I think that's really where the action will be, that will then improve the party's decision of who becomes president.

In other words, we have a really important election here with Gallego and Kari Lake.

And a recent poll just came out today that has, Gallego's up by seven points, for example, and I think that will increase basically turnout.

- What do you think, Jason?

And we haven't even talked in depth about all the other races that are happening in Arizona.

- Well, that's (indistinct), when we look at what's going on in Arizona, is there gonna be an increase?

I think that there will be, but I think there's gonna be an increase across the board.

Arizona has become so much more of an important state nationally.

So we're looking at a presidential election, a competitive senate election that's on the books, a state house and Senate that could be up for grabs.

So there's a lot going on in Arizona.

There's a ton of issues that are out there.

And I think that we're gonna see an increase just in voter participation across the board.

And right along with that is an increase in Hispanic population out there.

- Well, as we mentioned, it's still early.

A lot can change between now and November.

So I know you said that you could teach a whole class on this and you said you could talk for hours, (laughing) so we have to have you back in the fall.

- Looking forward to it, very much.

- Yes.

Thank you, gentlemen.

Appreciate you both being here.

- Thank you.

- Thank you.

- Good to see you.

That's our show for tonight.

For Horizonte and Arizona PBS, I'm Catherine Anaya.

Thanks for joining us.

Have a great night.

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