>>This week on NewsNight, the midterm elections as Governor DeSantis and Republicans strengthen their grip on Florida politics.

We'll look at whether we can still call ourselves a swing state.

And following the flooding of Hurricane Ian, Nicole offers a reminder that dangerous storms can strike even late in hurricane season.

NewsNight starts now.

[MUSIC] Hello, I'm Steve Mort and welcome to NewsNight where we take a closer look at the big stories impacting central Florida and how they affect all of us.

I'm on my own in the studio tonight with many of our regular panelists on storm coverage duties this week.

First tonight, though, we wanted to talk about the other big story this week in central Florida.

And that, of course, is the midterm elections.

The results offered a glimpse of a new political landscape for the Sunshine State.

We'll look at what it all means in more detail in the coming weeks.

But the outcome in several key races offers a picture of solidifying Republican power.

Governor DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio both easily winning reelection.

The GOP also sweeping the cabinet positions of Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner and chief financial officer.

Florida Congressional District 7, Trump-backed Cory Mills beat Karen Greene in a redrawn district held previously by Democrat Stephanie Murphy.

But in Florida Congressional District 10, another redrawn district ,Democrat Maxwell Frost, won his race, becoming the first ever Gen-Z member of Congress, beating Republican Calvin Wimbish.

Well, we wanted to find out whether this election was part of a broader shift away from Florida's long standing position as a swing state.

We spoke with Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida, who has decades of experience studying trends in Florida politics.

>>For the past 20 years or so, Florida really has been the number one battleground state for presidential elections and for many statewide elections.

Not all, but many.

You know, for presidential elections for six elections in a row.

We voted for the winner three times Democrat, three times Republicans.

The average margin of victory was only two and a half percent.

So, I mean, we were like the closest state and it was seesawing back and forth.

But in 2020, Florida broke its streak of six in a row voting for the winner.

And we voted for the person that lost nationally.

We voted for Donald Trump.

And not only do we vote for him, but we voted for him by a wider margin than we had in 2016.

He just eked by with about 1% in 2016, but he won by about three and a half points in 2020.

And so that was sort of a signal that Florida seemed to be trending more Republican.

And that's been followed up by voter registration data.

Republicans, for the first time in Florida history have taken the lead over Democrats.

They have about a two percentage point lead in this election and about about a 300,000, you know, 2 - 300,000 vote lead in terms of raw numbers.

And if you just look at the Florida legislature, I mean, it has actually been Republican.

That's not been competitive.

It's been Republican since the late nineties.

And even in the governor's races, we've had some really close races.

You know, the last three before the current one were decided by about one point or less.

And yet Republicans kept coming out on top, right.

If they were close.

But Republicans kept winning.

So long winded way of saying that it does seem that Florida is trending Republican and it seems to be because Republicans are pushing issues that a majority of voters in the state already like.

Some of it is because of who is coming to the state.

We grow by 2 to 3 million people a decade.

And so it seems that some of particularly some of it's Governor DeSantis policies over the last few years have attracted Republican voters to the state.

And probably in terms of demographics in Florida.

The biggest change we've seen is among Hispanic voters.

For a long time, it was sort of received political science wisdom that as Hispanic population grew in Florida, Democratic fortunes would grow as well.

And in fact, I just point out that back in 2008, when Barack Obama won the presidency and won Florida by like three percentage points, Democrats actually increased their registration lead to like six percentage points.

I mean, it went up a lot.

And people at the time were saying, is Florida going to be a blue state?

It's not going to be competitive anymore.

It's going to be democratic.

And I at the time said, you know, we have to wait and see maybe, but we have to wait and see.

That's what I will say about what's happening in Florida right now.

Is Florida still going to be competitive?

I think potentially, absolutely.

It still could be competitive.

It will depend on the issues.

The candidate, you know, it's not totally out of reach yet for Democrats.

We have to wait and see.

But the potential is there.

And Republicans, you know, really are hopeful that this is the case.

I mean, the potential is there that over the next few elections, it will become clear that Florida really is just a Republican state and that very rarely on occasion, you know, depending some odd circumstance, it might go Democratic in a national election.

But it's possible we could be going red.

A little early to tell you, but it could it could be going red for sure.

>>Aubrey Jewett from UCF.

A reminder, be sure to head on over to our website for much more on every episode of NewsNight, including in-depth interviews and links to useful information on the topics we discuss on the program.

It's all at wucf.org/newsnight.

Well, just weeks after Hurricane Ian devastated parts of our state, after making landfall in Lee County, Nicole offered a stark reminder to Floridians that late season tropical systems have the potential to spin up in the Atlantic.

For parts of our region, the flooding from Ian had only recently receded when Nicole started showing signs it might make a central Florida landfall.

Well, I sat down with Seminole County's emergency manager, Alan Harris, in the wake of Ian to talk about how his agency prepares for hurricanes and tropical storms.

>>As long as we are in the cone of uncertainty, we consider a direct strike as the only viable option for preparedness.

So we look at what would the worst case scenario be.

So we look at all the model runs.

We look at how fast it's moving to us, how what the projected strength of the storm would be once it gets here.

And then we make determinations based on that.

And there's a lot of modeling that goes with that.

So we know about how many people to evacuate based on the different categories and approximately how long it would take individuals to evacuate from their home, including those that have transportation dependencies.

From that, then we can make decisions on when do we need to start preparedness?

When do we need to open up shelters?

When do we need to start transportation services to get people to the shelters?

And about how long do we have to make sure that all of our critical infrastructures are protected before the storm gets here?

>>Hurricanes are easier than some natural disasters in that you can see them coming that trickier in that they're all different.

How do you prepare when each storm, Irma, Charley, Frances and now Ian are all such different events?

>>It's really getting people out of the mindset.

In Florida, we're pretty used to hurricanes, most people at least, that have lived in Florida for a while.

So we had to get those individuals to reevaluate what they thought because they may be considering everything based on their last storm.

And then for all the new people that have moved into Florida, trying to educate them on what to expect.

>>What can we learn?

Do you think there's lessons to take away teachable moments that we can say, well, this went well.

This didn't go so well.

What are the lessons?

>>Sure.

So certainly we can we've learned quite a few things over the years in hurricanes.

One of the things that we need to make sure that we have is ample high terrain vehicles, vehicles that can go into flooded, flooded waters, because this is not going to be the last flood in Seminole County.

We've experienced flooding after Hurricane Irma.

We experienced flood back flooding back in 2008.

And each year to some level, we will see some flooding, certainly not to this level, but sometimes we get high, high up on on certain low lying roads and things like that.

So making sure that we have ample vehicles that can do those types of things.

And I know there's a lot of resistance to that in the in the world, that there's a talk about militarizing the law enforcement.

But these are not although they are old military vehicles, they're not used for that type of activity.

They're used to evacuate individuals and their pets.

And over and over and over again, you see these army type vehicles, these large trucks in the in the neighborhoods, and they're pulling individuals with special needs and wheelchairs because of this flash flooding that occurred out of their homes, not used in military militaristic settings.

So it's really changing the culture.

And unfortunately, in the United States also and really everywhere, people are used to instant, instant response.

So you push a button and the groceries show up at the front door.

They expect that for debris as well.

They expect that they will be able to push a button or the garbage truck that comes by will come and pick up their debris and it's just changing the mindset.

We are so used to instant and immediate response to things now.

It's hard for people to understand or really grasp what it is for a long lasting disaster, which unfortunately does happen.

>>Do we need to change our mindset as well in these inland communities as to what a disaster might look like?

You know, resiliency and flood mitigation has been a thing in coastal areas in central Florida for a long time.

That's not new in our state.

For a lot of people here in a fast growing area that may have moved here fairly recently.

They might think, boy, I thought we were safe here.

Do we have to adjust our mindsets?

>>Absolutely.

And that's really for not only just people in general, but our elected officials, individuals in the media, because where do they love to go and what are the reporters love to go?

They love to go out on the beach.

They don't go inland to see what's happening there.

We're only 30 miles from the coast.

We're not going to lose a category in strength of hurricane if it comes in off of the East Coast.

And if it comes on the West Coast fast enough, we're not going to lose much here either.

It's still going to be very, very heavy winds.

The only thing that we don't have, which is horrific on the coastline, is the storm surge, but we get the flooding instead.

And that's it's was with us for a long period of time.

It's different risks for the same hazard.

>>Do we need to harden our infrastructure like has been done on the coast?

We hear a lot about resiliency, particularly the current administration in Tallahassee has spent a lot of money on resiliency efforts in the coastal areas, but also on stormwater improvements in inland areas.

Has that helped and do we need more?

>>We do need more.

So we have done a lot in the building code when it comes to wind.

In fact, Florida probably has the best building code in protecting structures for wind hazards.

Unfortunately, the water hazard, the flooding hazard is something that we still need to work on.

And that is going to be one of the things that we take away from hurricane Ian at least internally in the inland county is as we rebuild, as we redevelop our community, do we need to elevate more and do we need to build to a level where we we can be more flood resistant?

>>Alan Harris, emergency manager with Seminole County, speaking to me in the wake of Hurricane Ian.

Meanwhile, be sure to join the conversation on social media.

You can always find us at WUCFTV on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

All right.

Next tonight, this hurricane season in Florida's provided an example of the flooding dangers that storms can pose to parts of our region.

Some coastal regions in Florida have been developing resiliency infrastructure for years to protect against flooding from storm surge and sea level rise.

But as we now know from the 2022 hurricane season, even those inland areas can be highly vulnerable.

I recently spoke with Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national reporter covering the environment for USA Today.

She's based in Daytona Beach.

>>Part of the issue with a long term development of Florida is all the new development is only required to handle like a 25 year rain.

So if you're built to hold the you know, you see the retention ponds.

We all know retention ponds, they're built to handle like in some cases a 25 year, maybe a 50 year rainfall.

If you get a thousand year rainfall, if you live in a neighborhood where you know, it floods on a four inch rainfall day.

If you should pay attention to those forecasts for 10 to 15 inches of rain and know, okay, this is serious, I need to and you know, should there be better efforts to make sure those people understand, I don't know how much warning they were given from their local officials.

>>I mean, how much comes down to the planning process, development and urban sprawl and how do those factor into this?

I mean, in 2011, I believe Florida abolished the state agency that managed risky development.

How much of this has got to do with where these places are?

>>Oh, it has everything to do with it.

I mean, if you look at the pattern of development over the last 50 years in Florida, the last 60 years in Florida, how many times have people paved over wetlands?

I mean, you know, these these subdivisions, there's I just recently rode through a new subdivision that's under underway.

And they're there.

There are wetlands everywhere.

I mean, it's just literally they're bringing in truckloads of clay.

So what happens to that water the next time when it's now sitting there percolating down into the ground?

And that that's been the case for years in Florida, they decided that a retention pond would hold a 25 year rain.

Well, meanwhile, as climate warming takes effect and the air is warmer, the water's warmer.

All these storms, even a regular sunny afternoon thunderstorm, is holding more water than it did before.

So a rain that used to be what they would call a one in 100 year rain is actually coming much more often than it used to when Florida's planning rules were put into place.

But, you know, is it fair to ask a developer to hold 100 or 500 year rain?

It would.

That would drive.

I'm told it would drive the cost of development through the roof.

And, you know, ultimately, the average person who buys there or rents there may bear that burden.

So I'm not sure what the answer is, but it certainly there have been all these construction and all this development that has rechanneled the water.

That's, you know, the Daytona Canal system was built for not not to hold storm water in the third in like the thirties, early thirties, forties.

Instead, over the years, all that development in Daytona, much of it is the stormwater has been channel to that canal system.

So it's now doing duty for far more square miles than it was intended for.

And the same can be said for canals all over central Florida.

There's just a lot of there's a lot of there's been a lot of reconstruction of wetlands.

And, you know, another thing is they the water management district has permitted wetlands.

You know, there's this wetland mitigation where if you want to destroy wetlands in a subdivision, you can buy credits in a mitigation bank 30 miles away.

That's all well and good for creating wetlands that will help restore the aquifer or whatever.

It'll protect wetlands.

But in the meantime, if you filled in this wetland, what happens to that water that falls on that wetland?

It you know, it.

A lot of people are questioning whether that process of allowing mitigation credits really makes sense in terms of stormwater management.

>>I mean, the governor has pushed resiliency and stormwater infrastructure investment, especially in coastal communities, but not exclusively.

And I wonder if you think an event like Hurricane Ian will sort of prompt a reevaluation as to where those kinds of resources need to go or maybe even a further prioritization of that spending?

>>That's a good question, and I don't know the answer because we have so many different crises happening at the same time.

The coast needs resources because sea level rise is happening already, causing erosion everywhere.

These inland areas that have now been flooded.

It certainly seems that there will have to be some serious questions about where we put money toward improving existing areas of flood.

How do we plan how do we plan for the future if we're going to have rainfall more often?

What kind of rule changes do we need to make?

You know, after Hurricane Andrew.

They changed a lot of the building codes to make homes stronger.

We see how successful that is now with so many new homes that were able to withstand, you know, Ians strongest winds.

But there haven't been a lot of improvements or changes to the rainfall regulations about stormwater.

And we know that we're getting more and more rainfall.

So hopefully someone will look at that and go, hey, there are some serious lessons we need to learn.

>>And there are a lot of difficulties with code changes.

Of course, people, if you've got to get the public buy in for a lot of those things, that affects property ownership and that all of that kind of stuff.

>>You're right.

You're right.

>>Can inland areas do you think that experienced the worst this time learn anything from the experience of places by the ocean when it comes to flood mitigation efforts?

Or is the area around the St. John's River just a totally different kettle of fish from the coast?

>>It's a different kettle of fish maybe in central Florida, but we always have to realize that the St. John's is tidally influenced in the North End.

So one of the things that happened with this storm is that when when it went offshore, went to the east, it pushed the ocean into the mouth of the Saint John's River and was holding the river back because it was moving so slow.

So as all that storm water was pouring into the river from all these entrance points in central Florida, it was held up on that end.

And I think there, again, it's a case of people don't understand what it means to be in a flood zone.

Yes, I think I think people aren't looking at the flood zone maps.

They don't understand that we have a letter system in Florida.

If you're in in the letter, that's the most extreme.

You really need to always be aware and hopefully there will be some effort to make people more aware and make that information more accessible so people understand what the risks are.

>>So they can make decisions, for example, on whether to get flood insurance, because hardly anybody has it in central Florida.

>>No.

So many people don't have flood insurance.

And I mean, and I've spoken to people before who go, well, I didn't think I would flood.

And sometimes I've been interviewing people who are at the bottom of a hill, you know, they're in one of those subdivisions and they're down.

And often times when you go the name of their street implies that it's a valley or a bowl and you're like, and you tell me again why you don't have flood insurance.

I mean, and maybe it's expensive, but and, you know, an insurance is a whole other level that, you know, the nation is already in trouble with the flood insurance and how often they have to pay out flood claims.

If so many more people get flood insurance, that is going to have a ripple effect as well.

>>And the building and development in flood zones, of course, is not exclusive to Florida.

Authorities in Texas and Houston, for example, which experiences extreme flooding in heavy rainfall, have also been criticized for the same thing.

This is a nationwide issue.

>>It is.

And over we you know, we did a huge investigation last fall.

And the the amount of rainfall that has increased, you know, across the eastern half of the United States, we're seeing astronomical, more rainfall than we used to.

Many of the states in the east are seeing they've seen their wettest five or wettest ten years on record.

In the last ten years or the last 20 years, they're seeing far more rain than they did 50 or 60 years ago.

So along the Mississippi, along the Missouri, many locations where they just, you know, Waverly, Tennessee, is a perfect example.

They had that horrible flooding along that creek because, you know, they just got that surprise, double digit rainfall.

>>Dinah Voyles Pulver, Daytona Beach based national environment reporter for USA Today.

And you can find our recent special episode of NewsNight on Hurricane Ian and its aftermath on our website, wucf.org/newsnight.

All right.

Finally tonight, the often unequal pace of recovery from hurricanes and tropical storms.

President Biden last year signed an executive order that requires federal agencies like FEMA to take into account factors such as race, ethnicity, geography, gender identity and disability in their work.

You can find a link, by the way, to FEMA's strategic plan on our website.

Some research has shown that nonwhite or lower income residents have a reduced chance of getting approved for FEMA grants.

We'll talk more about this subject.

I turned to Chauncia Willis, the former emergency management coordinator for the city of Tampa.

She's now the co-founder and CEO of the Institute for Diversity and Inclusion in Emergency Management.

>>We see a lot of these same issues all around the world ufortunately, our country has created a construct that pits the wealthy, more affluent individuals and families in a position where they're able to prepare more adequately and have more access to resources before a disaster.

And for those that do not have adequate resources and those that do not have the socioeconomic status of others, they essentially don't do well in disasters.

And they face disproportionate impact.

>>What about those agencies that distribute aid?

Do we see systemic issues in organizations like FEMA, for example, that might contribute to this issue?

Well, you know, FEMA has done a great job in terms of really focusing on equity.

However, the reason they're focusing on equity is because there are so many pervasive, inequitable policies that are systemic, that have negatively impacted communities of color and marginalized communities throughout our country.

And those policies include everything from individual assistance after disaster, public assistance even before a disaster to just the amount of funding that goes into lower income communities is almost negligible.

And so the infrastructure support, the mitigation in lower income communities is not there.

>>How much of this do you think comes down to simple realities like homeownership, disparities in home values that affect the amount of assistance that communities of color can receive?

I mean, I've read data that show homeowner owners disproportionately benefit from FEMA assistance.

Communities of color, of course, have very high rates of renting.

>>Mm hmm.

>>How much does that affected just the basic realities of the market in individual neighborhoods?

>>It it affects it tremendously.

I mean, redlining and other inequitable practices that have prevented homeowners of color from actually being able to purchase properties in safer, less vulnerable areas, really attributes to the disproportionate impact that we see after a disaster.

So when we're looking at these disasters and we're seeing where white communities are recovering much more quickly, and we go to say, for example, the Ninth Ward in New Orleans, and it still hasn't recovered.

We know that a lot of that can be attributed to inequities, the disproportionate systems that the systems that essentially are inequitable in our country.

And so it's unfortunate, but absolutely true.

>>Why do we see neighborhoods with large African-American populations flooding so much worse?

For example, do you see infrastructure as being a problem as part of that puzzle?

>>Mm hmm.

Infrastructure is a huge problem.

In general, those communities who might be considered marginalized and are marginalized or disenfranchized from government do not receive the same level of infrastructure investment.

So programs like the BRIC program, a mitigation program from FEMA, those programs are intended to provide funding.

And I mean funding in the millions and billions of dollars to communities to ensure that their infrastructure is adequate when those grants are being formulated and prepared.

Many times communities of color are excluded.

And what you see is an entire community facing repetitive flooding, dealing with disaster after disaster, having compounded disasters and the mental trauma that goes along with that is significant.

The financial impacts of having to recover or try to recover because you never really recover.

You just kind of bouncing.

>>Chauncia Willis from the Institute for Diversity and Inclusion in Emergency Management.

Well, that is all the time we have for this week.

We'll see you next Friday night at 8:30 here on WUCF.

In the meantime, from all of us here at NewsNight, take care and have a good week.