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♪ >>> HI, EVERYBODY, WELCOME TO "CHAT BOX."

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF NUMBERS ON THE SHOW THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST CENSUS DATA IS OUT.

WE'LL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AND SEE WHAT THAT MEANS FOR NEW JERSEY IN JUST A FEW MINUTES.

BUT WE START WITH THE SCIENCE AND THE POLITICS OF COVID, INEXTRICABLE AT THIS POINT, REALLY.

DECLAN JOINS US IN A FEW MINUTES TO TALK ABOUT THE POLITICS.

BUT WE START TONIGHT WITH THE SCIENCE.

LET'S GET UP TO SPEED WITH OUR RESIDENT EPIDEMIOLOGIST.

HOLA STEPHANIE.

>> HOLA.

HOW ARE YOU?

>> SO, WE HERE IN THE NEWS BUSINESS, WE MAKE A LOT OF IT WHEN THE CDC ISSUES NEW GUIDELINES, RIGHT?

SO, I WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT THEM.

I WANT TO GO -- I WON'T GO THROUGH THE WHOLE THING BUT BASICALLY IT LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE NEW CDC GUIDELINES ARE SAYING IS IF YOU GOT YOUR SHOT, YOU'RE A LOT BETTER OFF THAN IF YOU DIDN'T GET YOUR SHOT, RIGHT?

WHAT'S THE NEWS HERE?

>> THAT'S ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

I THINK WHAT WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO DO IS GET VACCINATED BECAUSE BEING VACCINATED MEANS YOU'RE SAFER AND THERE'S MORE THAT YOU CAN DO.

THERE'S MORE PEOPLE YOU CAN GET TOGETHER WITH AND BROADER ENVIRONMENTS.

AND SO, WHEN PEOPLE ARE SAYING, WHY SHOULD I GET VACCINATED?

THAT'S REALLY THE MAIN REASON.

IF YOU'RE VACCINATED, YOUR RISK IS LOWER IN ALL SETTINGS, AND THAT MEANS THAT YOU CAN GET TOGETHER WITH A SMALL GROUP OF OTHER VACCINATED PEOPLE, WHETHER THAT'S INSIDE YOUR HOME OR THEIR HOME OR OUTSIDE WITHOUT MASKS.

YOU CAN HUG PEOPLE AGAIN WHO ARE FULLY VACCINATED.

AND THAT'S A REALLY BIG BENEFIT FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE.

>> I HEAR FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE, IF I GOT VACCINATED, WHY DO I STILL HAVE TO WEAR A MASK?

>> RIGHT.

SO, YOU NEED TO CONTINUE TO WEAR A MASK INDOORS, IN CROWDED PUBLIC SPACES BECAUSE LIKE MOST THINGS IN LIFE, THESE IMMUNIZATIONS ARE NOT 100%.

NOW, IF YOU ARE GOING TO GET INFECTED, IT WILL BE A MUCH MILDER CASE, YOU'RE NOT LIKELY TO GO TO THE HOSPITAL OR NEED A VENTILATOR BUT IT'S STILL POSSIBLE AND IF YOU BECOME INFECTED, YOU CAN STILL POTENTIALLY SPREAD IT TO THOSE UNVACCINATED PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT HIGH RISK, SO FOR THE TIME BEING, WEARING A MASK IN THOSE ENVIRONMENTS, CONSIDER IT DOING YOUR PUBLIC GOOD FOR THE DAY.

>> SO, YOU'RE TRYING NOT TO INFECT OTHERS MORE SO THAN NOT TRYING TO GET INFECTED.

>> RIGHT.

WE ARE NOT YET AT HERD IMMUNITY.

WE'RE GETTING THERE.

WE'RE GETTING A LOT OF PEOPLE VACCINATED BUT UNTIL WE HIT SORT OF CLOSER TO THAT MAGIC NUMBER OF WHAT WE'RE THINKING IS 70%, MASKS ARE GOING TO STICK AROUND.

SO, IF PEOPLE WANT TO GET RID OF THEIR MASKS, I ENCOURAGE YOU ALL TO GO OUT AND GET YOUR VACCINE.

>> IT FELT TO ME LIKE THERE WAS A RUSH OF PEOPLE GETTING VACCINATED.

NOW PEOPLE SEEM TO THINK THEY DON'T HAVE TO RUSH TO GET A SHOT AT ALL.

WHAT'S THE STATUS OF THE STATE'S VACCINATION EFFORT?

A LOT OF PEOPLE NOT FOLLOWING UP ON THEIR SECOND DOSES, RIGHT?

HOW'S THE HESITANCY GOING?

>> RIGHT.

SO, I THINK WHAT'S HAPPENED IS THE PEOPLE WHO WERE INITIALLY EAGER TO GET THEIR VACCINE, THEY LOGGED ON AND THEY GOT THEIR VACCINES RIGHT AWAY.

I THINK SOME PEOPLE FELL OFF ON TRYING TO MAKE APPOINTMENTS BECAUSE THEY THINK, OH, IT'S STILL TOO HARD TO GET AN APPOINTMENT SO THEY'RE NOT TRYING.

I THINK WHAT WE'VE MADE SOME HEADWAY IN IS THE PEOPLE WHO WERE TRULY HESITANT, THE PEOPLE WHO WERE WAIT AND SEE.

I'LL LET OTHER PEOPLE GO FIRST AND SEE HOW IT GOES.

THOSE PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO GET VACCINATED.

I THINK WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH NOW ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE, I DON'T WANT TO GET VACCINATED AT ALL, AND THOSE PEOPLE ARE MUCH HARDER TO REACH, BECAUSE AS YOU MENTIONED, THIS IS WHERE SCIENCE INTERSECTS UNFORTUNATELY WITH POLITICS.

>> SO, WHO'S NOT GETTING VACCINATED?

DO WE KNOW THAT DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP?

>> YEAH.

SO, RIGHT NOW, LARGELY, IT'S PEOPLE WHO IDENTIFY AS REPUBLICAN NATIONALLY.

ABOUT 30% OF PEOPLE WHO IDENTIFY AS REPUBLICAN SAY THEY WILL UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES GET VACCINATED.

AND THAT NUMBER IS UNFORTUNATELY BEEN CLIMBING.

THE NUMBER OF BLACK AND LATINX PEOPLE WHO WERE INITIALLY SAYING, I'LL WAIT AND SEE, HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THEY'VE SWITCHED OVER TO THE, I ALREADY HAVE MY VACCINE OR I'M TRYING TO GET IT.

WE NEED TO DO BETTER IN THE 18 TO 24 TO 29-YEAR-OLD RANGE.

THAT POPULATION SEEMS TO THINK THAT THEY'RE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE SEVERE COVID OR LESS LIKELY TO BE HOSPITALIZED.

HOWEVER, THEY'RE ALSO THE GROUP AND THE ONLY GROUP THAT HAS HAD A TRANSMISSION RATE OF OVER 1 DURING THE ENTIRE PANDEMIC.

SO, THEY'RE SPREADING THE DISEASE.

WE REALLY NEED YOUNG PEOPLE TO GO OUT AND BE WILLING TO GET VACCINATED.

>> BECAUSE WHILE THEY MAY BE HEALTHY AND STRONG, AND NOT HAVE A TERRIBLE CASE OF THIS, THE PERSON THAT THEY PASS IT ON TO MAY NOT BE SO.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

AND I THINK THERE'S BEEN A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY IN THAT AGE GROUP.

THERE ARE PEOPLE RIGHT NOW UNDER 49 WHO HAVE DIED, WHO HAVE BEEN ON VENTILATORS, AND AS YOUNG AS A FEW YEARS OLD.

SO, YOU KNOW, IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN TO YOU, BUT IT COULD.

>> SO, I HAVE A GROUP OF FRIENDS THAT ARE IN THE HEALTHCARE BUSINESS, AND THEY'RE KIND OF LIKE MY SOUNDINGBOARD.

I GET -- I TALK TO THEM FOR ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE AND STUFF, AND THEY'RE TELLING ME THAT MEDICAL PERSONNEL, NURSING HOMES, SOME HOSPITALS, THAT THE VACCINATION RATE AMONG STAFF IS VERY LOW.

THAT'S A PROBLEM, NO?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

WE NEED EVERYBODY TO BE INVOLVED IN THIS.

WE NEED EVERYBODY TO BE WILLING TO GET VACCINATED.

NATIONALLY, ABOUT 17% OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS SAY THAT THEY WILL NOT GET VACCINATED AND THAT'S REALLY CHALLENGING TO TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THAT, BECAUSE WE LOOK TO OUR HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS TO PROVIDE EXAMPLES OF HOW WE SHOULD BEHAVE SO IF THEY'RE SAYING THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GET VACCINATED, THAT HAS A TRICKLE DOWN EFFECT TO THE REST OF THE POPULATION.

>> DO WE STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST INFECTION RATE IN THE COUNTRY?

>> I BELIEVE RIGHT NOW, MICHIGAN DOES.

THEY DECIDED TO PASS US UP, UNFORTUNATELY, AND THEY'RE SEEING A SIGNIFICANT SURGE RIGHT NOW.

SO, NEW JERSEY IS STILL WITHIN THE TOP, I BELIEVE, FIVE, AND WE ARE STILL AVERAGING ABOUT 2,400 CASES PER DAY OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS.

THAT'S LOWER THAN IT'S BEEN BUT IT'S STILL TOO HIGH FROM WHERE I'M SITTING.

>> WHERE ARE WE RIGHT NOW COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR?

IF WE WERE TO LOOK AT A GRAPH RIGHT NOW.

>> IF WE WERE -- >> ASSUME THIS IS A GRAPHIC RIGHT HERE.

>> THAT'S A GRAPHIC WE'RE LOOKING AT?

SO, WE ARE DEFINITELY LOWER THAN WE WERE THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

I THINK PART OF WE NEED TO REMEMBER IS THIS TIME LAST YEAR, WE DIDN'T HAVE ADEQUATE TESTING SO THE NUMBERS WERE PROBABLY EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT DATA SHOWED US, SO WE'RE DEFINITELY STARTING TO SEE THIS DECLINE.

I OWE A LOT OF THAT TO VACCINES, RIGHT?

THE MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE VACCINATED, THE FEWER CASES WE SHOULD SEE AND IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A DIAL.

AS YOU TURN UP VACCINES, WE'LL START TO TURN DOWN THE NUMBER OF CASES.

>> WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT NORMAL, YOU KNOW, AND RETURNING THERE.

BUT DO WE NEED TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE HONEST ABOUT WHAT NORMAL IS GOING TO BE?

I MEAN, INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL, INDIA, BRAZIL, SUPER HOT RIGHT NOW.

ARE PEOPLE GOING TO BE TRAVELING TO AND FRO AND HOW DOES THAT AFFECT POTENTIAL RETRANSMISSION RATES HERE IN THE STATES?

>> YEAH, I HAVE A FRIEND SENT ME A GREAT SIGN THAT SAID, WHY RETURN TO NORMAL WHEN WE CAN DO BETTER?

NORMAL -- WE WEREN'T PREPARED FOR A PANDEMIC.

NORMAL, WE HAD UNREASONABLY HIGH RATES OF FLU AND FLU DEATHS.

WE KNOW THAT MASKS, FOR EXAMPLE, WORK FOR RESPIRATORY DISEASES, SO WHATEVER NORMAL'S GOING TO LOOK LIKE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS NEEDS TO BE BETTER THAN WHERE WE WERE.

AND AS YOU MENTIONED, YOU KNOW, AIRLINE TRAVEL IS STILL DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE TRAVELING INTERNATIONALLY.

THERE ARE PEOPLE LITERALLY DYING IN THE STREETS IN INDIA RIGHT NOW, SO WE'RE DOING BETTER, BUT UNLESS WE ALL CONTINUE DOWN THIS PATH AND AGREE TO GET VACCINATED AND AGREE TO LISTEN TO THE SCIENCE, WE CAN LOSE THE GROUND THAT WE HAVE GAINED, SO NORMAL IS GOING TO LOOK VERY DIFFERENT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS.

>> ALL RIGHT, RECSTEPHANIE, ALW GOOD TO SEE YOU.

THANKS FOR TAKING TIME WITH US.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

>>> ALL RIGHT, SO THAT'S SOME OF THE SCIENCE, BUT A PANDEMIC IS NOT JUST SCIENCE.

THERE'S MORE TO IT THAN THAT.

EVERY RESTRICTION COMES WITH A CONSEQUENCE, AND THE STATE ECONOMY HAS REALLY SUFFERED FROM THE SERIES OF LOCKDOWNS.

GETTING BACK TO BUSINESS NORMAL HAS BEEN A TOUGH ROAD FOR THOUSANDS OF SMALL BUSINESS PEOPLE AND THEIR EMPLOYEES.

IT'S BEEN MORE THAN A YEAR AND SOME PLACES ARE JUST NEVER COMING BACK.

ONE PERSON WHO'S BEEN TELLING THAT STORY IS STATE SENATOR DECLAN O'SCANLON WHO REPRESENTS MONMOUTH COUNTY WHERE TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY ARE SUCH A BIG PART OF THE ECONOMY.

SENATOR, WELCOME BACK TO THE SHOW.

>> DAVID, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

I APPRECIATE IT.

>> WHERE ARE YOU RIGHT NOW?

>> I'M IN DOWNTOWN RED BANK WHERE UNFORTUNATELY RIGHT BEHIND ME YOU SEE A STORE THAT WAS ONE OF THE VICTIMS OF THE PANDEMIC, AND THE GOVERNOR'S POLICIES, BUT THERE'S OTHER AREAS HERE IN RED BANK THAT I'LL TURN AROUND IN THE BACKGROUND AND OUR RESTAURANTS ARE DYING TO REOPEN AT FULL CAPACITY OR SOMETHING APPROACHING THAT.

THEY'RE DYING TO GET SOME BAR SEATING, WHICH OTHER STATES HAVE AND OTHER SURROUNDING STATES HAVE ANNOUNCED EVEN JUST TODAY.

NEW YORK, I BELIEVE, ANNOUNCED TODAY THAT IT WOULD FULLY REOPEN JULY 1, BUT I THINK THE STATE ANNOUNCED SOME BAR SEATING.

WE'VE SEEN CONNECTICUT GIVE DEFINITIVE DATES WHEN OUTDOORS, ALL RESTRICTIONS WOULD GO AWAY I THINK THE MIDDLE OF MAY AND AT THE END OF MAY, ALL RESTRICTIONS WOULD GO AWAY AND THAT IS ALL CAVEATED BY THE FACT THAT IF OUR NUMBERS DON'T CONTINUE TO GO IN THE DIRECTION WE EXPECT, THINGS MIGHT CHANGE.

PEOPLE ARE MATURE ENOUGH THAT THEY UNDERSTAND THAT.

OUR GOVERNOR, SO FAR, HASN'T TRUSTED PEOPLE TO ACCEPT THAT.

>> AS WE HEAD INTO SUMMER OF '21, WHAT IS THE STATUS, REAL QUICK, OF SMALL BUSINESS IN YOUR DISTRICT?

SO MUCH OF IT DEPENDENT, AS WE SAID EARLY ON, RESTAURANT BUSINESS, BEACH STUFF AND THAT KIND OF THING.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT INTO 2021 RIGHT NOW?

>> I'M LOOKING AT THE ABSOLUTE NEED TO MOVE QUICKLY.

FOLKS ARE PLANNING NOW.

THEY'RE HIRING NOW.

ESPECIALLY HERE AT THE SHORE.

I'M IN RED BANK NOW, WHICH IS PROBABLY FIVE MILES DUE WEST OF THE ACTUAL SHORE, SO THIS WHOLE ECONOMY IS COUNTING ON THE GOVERNOR TAKING THE ACTION THAT SO MANY OTHER GOVERNORS HAVE TAKEN.

NEW JERSEY'S STILL THE MOST LOCKED DOWN STATE IN THE NATION OR ONE OF THE MOST LOCKED DOWN STATES.

THAT'S GOT TO CHANGE.

SO, THESE PEOPLE CAN PLAN AND LOOK, IT'S A MORALE QUESTION TOO.

IT'S BEEN DEMORALIZING FOR THEM AS NEW JERSEY HAS DRAGGED ITS FEET.

MANY OF THEM JUST AREN'T SURE WE'RE EVER GOING TO GET ON TRACK, THAT THEY MIGHT LOSE A WHOLE SUMMER.

THAT CAN'T HAPPEN.

WE CANNOT LET IT.

>> SO, YOU HAVE THIS TWEET THAT'S PINNED ON YOUR TWITTER PAGE.

IT'S FROM MAY OF 2020.

IT SAYS, WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO TAKE RISKS WITH LIVES AND WITH OUR ECONOMY.

STUFF DECISIONS, TO BE SURE, BUT THE LIVES AND WELLBEING OF ALL NEW JERSEYANS DEPEND ON US BOLDLY STEPPING UP, SAVING OUR ECONOMY IS SAVING LIVES.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

TAKING RISKS WITH LIVES?

WHOSE LIVES?

>> IT'S ALL A RISK.

IF YOU'RE GOING TO STAY LOCKED DOWN, THERE'S RISK.

YOU ARE DEFINITELY GOING TO KILL MORE BUSINESSES, KILL MORE LIVELIHOODS, AND MAYBE LONG-TERM ACTUALLY KILL PEOPLE.

IF YOU OPEN TOO QUICKLY, IF YOU EXPOSE TOO MANY PEOPLE TO THE VIRUS, YOU WILL KILL PEOPLE THERE TOO.

SO, THERE'S NO QUESTION IT'S A BALANCE.

AND THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES TO WHATEVER YOU CHOOSE.

I HAD SOMEONE TWEET AT ME TODAY SAYING, OH MY GOD, WE NEED TO GET TO COVID ZERO BEFORE WE DO ANYTHING.

WELL, THAT MEANS YOU'RE WILLING TO KILL BUSINESSES, KILL LIVELIHOODS, AND KILL PEOPLE AS WELL.

THERE ARE PROS AND CONS AND RISKS ALL THE WAY AROUND.

SO, THAT'S WHAT MY QUOTE WAS.

WE HAVE TO TAKE RISKS IN EITHER DIRECTION.

>> SO THE GOVERNOR CAME OUT THIS WEEK.

THE GOVERNOR CAME OUT AND SAID HE WAS GOING TO EASE SOME OF THE RESTRICTIONS.

THEY MADE A BIG THING OUT OF IT.

SAID IT WAS A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT.

YOU CALLED IT A PERPETUATION OF CONVOLUTED AND DRACONIAN SERIES OF COVID-19 EXECUTIVE ORDERS.

BOTH CONVOLUTED AND DRACONIAN?

>> WELL, I'M NOT SURE I USED EXACTLY THOSE WORDS BUT IT PROBABLY IS BOTH OF THOSE THINGS.

THE GOVERNOR TEASED ALL WEEKEND HE WAS GOING TO HAVE A MAJOR REOPENING ANNOUNCEMENT AND THEN IT WAS A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WHICH ARE IMPORTANT TO THE INDUSTRIES HE ADDRESSED BUT NOT TO THE OVERALL ECONOMY.

NOT TO THE MORALE OF ALL OF OUR BUSINESS PEOPLE WHO ARE DYING FOR THE GOVERNOR TO FINALLY INDICATE THAT HE GETS IT.

SO, YEAH.

YOU CAN'T TEASE A MAJOR REOPENING STATEMENT AND THEN DO NOTHING.

THAT IS JUST DEMORALIZING.

IT'S AS IF THEY PLANNED ON DOING SOMETHING -- >> IN YOUR MIND -- IN YOUR MIND, YOU WANT REOPENING OF 100%, JUST LIKE NEW YORK CITY?

>> WELL, NEW YORK CITY'S NOT 100%.

IN MY MIND, IT'S GIVE US DEFINITIVE DATES DURING THE COURSE OF MAY.

>> THE STATE ANNOUNCED TODAY THAT JULY 1st, NEW YORK IS GOING TO BE 100% OPEN.

>> WELL, ACTUALLY, DE BLASIO ANNOUNCED THAT.

CUOMO SAID HE WASN'T SURE YET.

BUT DE BLASIO ANNOUNCED THAT AND HE'S PROBABLY RIGHT.

CERTAINLY NEW JERSEY, YOU CAN LOOK AT CONNECTICUT AS WELL.

THEY ANNOUNCED DEFINITIVE DATES FOR THE REMOVAL OF RESTRICTIONS.

AGAIN, IT'S ALL PENDING THE NUMBERS CONTINUING TO GO IN THE DIRECTION THAT WE EXPECT AT THE RATE WE EXPECT.

PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT.

BUT IT'S TIME FOR US TO SIGNIFY THAT WE REALIZE WE'RE BEATING COVID AND THAT THE PERFECTS ARE GOING TO ACCRUE TO OUR BUSINESSES, OUR ECONOMY AND ALL OUR LIVES SOON.

THAT'S THE MESSAGE THAT PEOPLE NEED.

THAT'S THE RIGHT MESSAGE TO SEND WITH, AGAIN, A CAVEAT.

IF IT DOESN'T GO IN THE DIRECTION AND AT THE RATE WE EXPECT, WE MAY HAVE TO PIVOT.

WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THINGS.

THAT'S FINE.

BUT THE SLOW DRIP, DRIP, DRIP AND DRAGGING OUR FEET SUGGESTS THAT MAYBE THE VIRUS IS DIFFERENT IN NEW JERSEY THAN IN OTHER PLACES.

DOESN'T HELP.

IT'S DEMORALIZING TO OUR BUSINESSES.

>> SO KEEPING THE NUMBERS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WOULD INCLUDE PEOPLE MASKING UP?

PEOPLE KEEPING DISTANCE FROM ONE ANOTHER?

NOT MEETING IN CROWDS AND GETTING VACCINATED, NO?

>> FOR NOW, ALL OF THOSE THINGS.

FOR NOW AND UNTIL WE REALLY CRUSH THIS.

IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT ISRAEL IS ON THE SAME PATH BUT WAY AHEAD OF US.

WHEN TWO WEEKS AFTER ISRAEL HIT THE NUMBERS THAT WE'RE AT, WE'RE CLOSE TO 60% OF ADULTS HAVING THE FIRST VACCINE, WHICH ACCRUES A LOT OF IMMUNITY WITHIN ABOUT 10, 11 DAYS.

WITHIN TWO WEEKS OF HITTING THE 60% NUMBER IN ISRAEL, OF PEOPLE HAVING FIRST VACCINE, THEIR NUMBERS PLUMMETED.

WE ABSOLUTELY CAN EXPECT TO SEE THAT HERE.

WE'VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE THEM.

DESPITE THE GOVERNOR'S PREDICTIONS OF DOOM, OF ONLY A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, PROJECTING WE COULD HAVE -- HIS AVERAGE WAS WE MIGHT STILL BE HAVING 4,000 CASES A DAY.

WE'RE AT AROUND 2,400, I THINK, SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

SO, ISRAEL'S LEADING THE WAY, AND WE ARE FOLLOWING IN THEIR FOOTSTEPS AT THEIR SAME NUMBERS.

WITHIN TWO WEEKS, IT'S VERY LIKELY OUR NUMBERS WILL BE PLUMMETING.

THE GOVERNOR SHOULD TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND TELL PEOPLE THAT PRESUMING THAT HAPPENS, WE'RE READY TO REOPEN DRAMATICALLY.

THAT'S THE MESSAGE HE SHOULD BE SENDING.

UNTIL THAT TIME, UNTIL THAT DATE, KEEPING MASKS ON, SOCIAL DISTANCE, AND KEEP GETTING YOUR VACCINES, THAT'S A GOOD THING.

THAT WILL HELP US GET THERE.

BUT WE'RE ALREADY AT A POINT, PROBABLY, IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE IMMUNITY THAT PEOPLE HAVE WHO HAD COVID, WE ARE PROBABLY AT OVER 70% OF PEOPLE HAVE SOME SUBSTANTIAL LEVEL OF IMMUNITY OR WILL HAVE IT WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE OR TEN DAYS.

>> DECLAN O' SCANLON, THANKS FOR TAKING A FEW MINUTES WITH US.

ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU, MAN.

>> THANK YOU, DAVID.

SAME HERE.

THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

>> FINALLY TONIGHT, I NEVER PASS UP AN OPPORTUNITY TO CRUNCH NUMBERS WITH OUR FAVORITE DATA WRANGLER, OUR FRIEND AND COLLEAGUE, COLLEEN O'DAY.

NO OVERTIME FOR THIS, SO SORRY, BUT WELCOME.

>> YEAH, THANKS FOR HAVING ME, DAVID.

IT'S ALWAYS NICE TO TALK CENSUS WITH YOU.

I THINK WE DID THIS A COUPLE YEARS AGO, DIDN'T WE?

>> YES.

YES.

WE ARE CENSUS NERDS.

I PICTURE YOU WAITING BY YOUR LAPTOP, REFRESHING THE CENSUS PAGE EVERY FEW MINUTES, SAYING, THE NUMBERS ARE COMING OUT TODAY.

BUT THIS WASN'T THE BIG BATCH OF NUMBERS, RIGHT?

WHAT NUMBERS DID WE GET?

>> CORRECT.

AND THAT -- BUT THAT IS LITERALLY WHAT I DID BECAUSE THE CENSUS HAD ORIGINALLY SAID WE'RE GOING TO PUT THESE OUT AFTER WE START OUR PRESS CONFERENCE BUT IN FACT, THEY DIDN'T PUT THEM OUT UNTIL AFTER THE PRESS CONFERENCE ENDED SO THAT WAS A LITTLE FRUSTRATING.

THIS IS JUST THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN NEW JERSEY, WHICH WE KNOW IS NOW 9.29 MILLION.

IT WAS QUITE SURPRISING.

WE HAD BEEN AT 8.9 MILLION FOR MOST OF THE LAST DECADE OR, YOU KNOW, SOMEWHERE AROUND THERE.

AND AT ONE POINT, WE HAD ACTUALLY HIT 9 MILLION AND THEN THE CENSUS KIND OF TOOK IT BACK AND SAID, NO, WE THINK WE KIND OF OVERESTIMATED HERE.

SO, THE FACT THAT WE GAINED ABOUT 500,000 PEOPLE FROM THE 2010 CENSUS IS -- WAS SURPRISING.

AND THE ESTIMATE IS 400,000 PEOPLE MORE THAN WHAT THE CENSUS BUREAU HAD SAID A FEW MONTHS AGO THEY THOUGHT THE 2020 POPULATION WAS.

>> SO, IS THERE ANYTHING WE CAN TAKE AWAY RIGHT NOW FROM THESE NUMBERS THAT SUGGESTS AN IMPACT IN NEW JERSEY?

DID WE WIN?

>> YEAH.

SO, DEFINITELY.

WE DID NOT LOSE A CONGRESSIONAL SEAT.

THAT'S ONE THING.

I MEAN, WE HAD NOT BEEN EXPECTED TO LOSE ONE, BUT IF WE'D HAD A LOWER SHOWING OF FOLKS FILLING OUT THE CENSUS FORMS AND OUR POPULATION INCREASE WAS MUCH SMALLER OR MAYBE A DECREASE, WE COULD HAVE LOST A SEAT SO WE DIDN'T LOSE A CONGRESSIONAL MEMBER.

WE STILL HAVE 12.

AND THE OTHER THING IS, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF AID, FEDERAL AID THAT COMES OUT THAT IS BASED ON CENSUS POPULATION DATA, SO CERTAINLY THAT'S GOING TO HELP US OR IT SHOULD HELP US TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE MONEY BACK FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, DEPENDING ON WHAT THE PROGRAM IS, AND WHEN WE DO GET THOSE NUMBERS FOR CITIES AND COUNTIES, YOU KNOW, THOSE PLACES THAT MEET CERTAIN BENCHMARKS CAN ALSO EXPECT TO GET SOME MORE MONEY, SO THAT'S, YOU KNOW, BOTH OF THOSE ARE GOOD NEWS.

>> SO, WE'VE BEEN HEARING SINCE THE CHRISTIE ADMINISTRATION THAT NEW JERSEY WAS LOSING RESIDENTS, NOT TO MENTION THOSE ALLIED VAN LINES REPORTS THAT WE SEE EVERY YEAR THAT SAY ALL THE TRAFFIC WAS GOING OUT OF STATE.

BUT HERE WE SEE, WHAT WAS IT, 4.5%?

INCREASE?

>> YES.

THANK YOU FOR BRINGING THAT UP, BECAUSE THERE WAS A LOT OF CHATTER ON TWITTER OR TWEETS ON TWITTER THIS WEEK ABOUT THAT UNITED VAN LINES SURVEY, AND SOMEBODY ASKED IF THERE WAS A COPY OF IT AND MY RESPONSE WAS, I DON'T LOOK AT THAT UNLESS I'M GOING TO DEBUNK IT.

BECAUSE YOU KNOW, WHAT THAT WAS, WAS JUST A SURVEY OF PEOPLE WHO USE UNITED VAN LINES FOR THEIR MOVES.

I HAVE NO DOUBT -- >> "MY COUSIN VINNY."

>> YEAH, IT'S NOT -- THERE'S NOTHING SCIENTIFIC ABOUT IT AT ALL.

SO, CLEARLY, THIS, YOU KNOW, THIS SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO MOVE OUT OF NEW JERSEY, BUT THERE ARE ALSO PEOPLE WHO MOVE IN.

CLEARLY, YOU KNOW, WE'VE GOT A 500,000 INCREASE IN POPULATION IN OVER THE LAST DECADE.

THAT'S SIGNIFICANT.

>> THE LIBERALS WERE HAVING FUN HERE IN NEW JERSEY MOCKING THE REPUBLICANS WHO ALWAYS SAID THE SKY WAS FALLING AND THEY REFERENCED THE ALLIED VAN LINES STUDY.

>> ALL THE TIME.

>> SO, I FOUND THAT TO BE PRETTY FUNNY.

>> WELL, THEY PUT OUT -- >> I SAW A STORY -- GO AHEAD.

>> I WAS GOING TO SAY, THEY PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE TODAY KIND OF POINTING TO SOME REASONS THEY THINK THAT THE INCREASE MIGHT HAVE OCCURRED, INCLUDING STUDENTS WHO WERE HOME BECAUSE OF COVID, MIGRATION FROM PUERTO RICO BECAUSE OF, YOU KNOW, THE HURRICANE DOWN THERE.

>> AFTERMATH OF MARIA.

>> AND WHILE BOTH OF THOSE THINGS COULD PLAY A SMALL ROLE, I THINK ULTIMATELY, THAT'S -- THOSE WOULD NOT BE THE MAIN REASONS WHY WE HAD AN INCREASE.

>> I SAW THE STORY OUT OF NEW YORK WHICH THERE WAS A DISTRICT THAT LOST A SEAT BECAUSE, WHAT, 86 PEOPLE -- IF THEY HAD COUNTED 86 MORE PEOPLE, THEY WOULD NOT HAVE LOST A SEAT.

I MEAN, YOU HEAR ABOUT THAT WHEN THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT THE CENSUS, BUT THERE IT IS RIGHT THERE, RIGHT?

>> YEAH, RIGHT, EXACTLY.

SO, OUR RESPONSE RATE FOR PEOPLE WHO VOLUNTARILY FILLED OUT THE CENSUS WAS 67%.

IN NEW YORK STATE'S CASE, IT WAS 61%.

NOW, IF THEY HAD HAD A BIGGER RESPONSE RATE, MAYBE THEY WOULD HAVE COUNTED MORE PEOPLE.

I MEAN, THE CENSUS BUREAU DOES TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND USE OTHER METHODS TO TRY TO CAPTURE THOSE PEOPLE WHO DID NOT REPLY, BUT YOU HAVE TO THINK THAT PEOPLE REPLYING THEMSELVES IS ALWAYS A MORE ACCURATE NUMBER.

SO, YEAH, IF MORE PEOPLE HAD APPLIED WHO HAD -- HAD REPLIED, WHO KNOWS IF NEW YORK MAY NOT HAVE LOST A SEAT.

>> IS OUR 67% RETURN RATE, IS THAT GOOD COMPARED TO OTHER STATES?

I GUESS WE BEAT NEW YORK, BUT IS THAT GOOD?

WHERE DO WE FALL IN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE, DO YOU KNOW?

>> I MEAN, YEAH, IT'S NOT GREAT.

YOU'D LIKE TO THINK THAT MORE PEOPLE WOULD RESPOND, BUT THE NATIONAL AVERAGE WAS 64%, SO WE DID BEAT THAT.

YOU KNOW, THE STATES WHO HAD ABOUT $9 MILLION BOTH IN PROVIDING GRANTS TO COUNTIES AND LOCALITIES AND NONPROFIT GROUPS TO TRY TO GET OUT THE COUNT, AS IT WAS CALLED, AND THEN NONPROFITS ALSO, OR THE PHILANTHROPIC COMMUNITY SPENT OUD $2 MILLION TO $3 MILLION SO WE DID MAKE A PUSH, AND IN PLACES WHERE IT MATTERS, ALTHOUGH I GUESS WE WON'T FIND THAT OUT UNTIL WE GET THE FULL BREAKDOWN THAT HAS RACIAL AND ETHNIC BREAKDOWNS BUT CERTAINLY THERE WERE PUSHES IN NEWARK AND JERSEY CITY, PATTERSON AND PLACES WHERE WE HAVE TYPICALLY HARDER TO COUNT POPULATIONS OF EITHER IMMIGRANTS OR, YOU KNOW, BLACK AND BROWN PEOPLE, AND ALSO CHILDREN ARE OFTEN UNDERCOUNTED.

SO THERE WAS, YOU KNOW, THERE WAS A LOT THAT THE STATE DID TO TRY TO CAPTURE THOSE FOLKS.

>> SO, I HEARD A LOT OF DISCUSSION ABOUT WHAT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT MAY HAVE BEEN FROM THE CITIZENSHIP QUESTION AND HOW MUCH THAT MIGHT HAVE LED TO PEOPLE NOT PARTICIPATING.

ANY EVIDENCE OF THAT YET WITH THESE NUMBERS?

>> SO, WE DON'T HAVE THAT YET BECAUSE, AGAIN, WE'RE GOING TO NEED TO SEE THOSE FIGURES FOR ETHNIC BREAKDOWNS AND TO SEE HOW THE IMMIGRANT NUMBERS SHAKE OUT.

BUT CERTAINLY, THERE WAS -- THERE WERE A NUMBER OF GROUPS THAT REALLY PUSHED BACK AGAINST THAT AND TRIED TO GET OUT THE MESSAGE TO COMMUNITIES OF IMMIGRANTS TO SAY, YOU KNOW, THE QUESTION IS NOT ON THERE, AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT THE GOVERNMENT COULD TRACK YOU, EVEN IF -- IN ANY CASE, IF THERE WAS A QUESTION OR NOT, BECAUSE THE CENSUS DATA IS KEPT ESSENTIALLY IN A LOCK BOX, THOSE INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES, FOR, I THINK, 72 YEARS, SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THAT.

BUT CERTAINLY, WE WON'T KNOW THAT UNTIL WE SEE WHAT THE BREAKDOWNS WIND UP BEING.

>> ALL RIGHT, NERDING OUT WITH COLLEEN O'DAY, SENIOR WRITER FOR NJ SPOTLIGHT NEWS.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

THANKS FOR COMING ON WITH US.

>> YOU TOO.

THANK YOU SO MUCH, DAVID.

>> THANKS ALSO TO STEPHANIE SILVERA AND DECLAN O'SCANLON.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @DAVIDCRUZNJ.

I'M DAVID CRUZ FOR THE ENTIRE CREW HERE, THANKS FOR WATCHING.

WE'LL SEE YOU NEXT WEEK.

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