Support for the statewide broadcast of the state of Ohio comes from medical mutuel, providing more than 1.4 million Ohioans peace of mind with a selection of health insurance plans online at med mutual dot com slash Ohio by the law offices of Porter Wright, Morris and Arthur LLP.

Now with eight locations across the country, Porter Wright is a legal partner with a new perspective to the business community.

More at Porter Wright dot com and from the Ohio Education Association representing 124,000 members who work to inspire their students to think creatively and experience the joy of learning online.

At OHEA.org.

the tech world meets the political world in the next week as Intel celebrates its massive Central Ohio project.

But there's a lot of work to be done before the chips start getting made.

And with two months till the midterm election, women appear to be registering to vote in huge numbers.

Will explore that this week in the state of Ohio.

Welcome to the state of Ohio.

I'm Karen Kasler.

A ceremonial groundbreaking for what Ohio officials have called a silicon heartland will happen in Licking County in the next week.

President Biden is scheduled to join in with Governor Mike DeWine and other mostly Republican state officeholders for the public start of construction.

On a $20 billion, 2000 acre facility that Intel will build to make semiconductor chips.

State House correspondent Joe Ingles reports the clock is already ticking for state and city leaders in that area to get ready for what's being hailed as the biggest economic development project in Ohio history.

Take a look at this road leading to the Intel site now because it's not going to look like this much longer.

The biggest part that ODOT is directly involved in is widening and adding an additional lane to state route one.

61 from I-270 out to us.

62.

That will be done within the footprint of the existing roads, and we'll add that on the inside.

So we don't need to take additional real estate to do that.

And the work is supposed to begin in July of 20, 23 should be wrapped up by November of 20, 24.

While widening the road is the first thing on the agenda.

Cars are not the only kind of transportation being considered more.

Sees also the region's point on securing new passenger rail service to central Ohio.

So we're looking at Columbus to Cleveland, Columbus to Dayton and Cincinnati, Columbus to Pittsburgh, Columbus to Chicago.

What that could do is that could open up available employees in those regions to get to and from the site.

That's an option that we think could really be powerful, especially if you think about Newark in particular, or Zanesville, or if you go up Delaware or Mansfield, giving those employees an option not to have to drive, you know, an hour or two to get too close to the site.

Passenger rail could be a big part of that.

And this is an exciting time for that because the bipartisan infrastructure bill gives us money to do that, to implement new service.

And central Ohio hasn't had passenger rail since Amtrak cut service to Columbus in 1979.

Josh Lapp with Transit Columbus wants it back and says Columbus is the largest city in the nation without a rail line.

Of some sort.

But if rail materializes this time, it would be the better part of a decade before it's up and operating.

He thinks a more immediate solution would be rapid bus transit.

It is a bus, but it's a bus that is grade separated so that it's not just running on the road.

It actually has its own its own right of way.

It doesn't you know, it operates exactly like you would think a train operating except it's running on the, you know, on the street or in its own right of way rather than on tracks.

You know, there's a fairly successful system in Cleveland, the health line that was rated pretty well when it came out.

I know there's some operational issues maybe currently But we've seen huge success with BRT lines around the country and certainly around the world.

Business leaders say getting public transportation options, especially those that don't rely on the roadways with other vehicles, are important for Intel.

Rick Carafano with the Ohio Chamber of Commerce says an estimated 140 companies in Ohio will serve as suppliers to Intel.

And he says between 25 to 30 new companies will come here because of Intel, and all of them will likely want to attract a diverse pool of employees.

California says transportation will play a key role in achieving diversity.

There was a Columbus workforce study performed recently that showed that the the of the the percentages of households without a vehicle by race or ethnicity.

So for the Columbus metro region in 2019 14.3% of black households are without a vehicle.

4.6% of white households are without a vehicle.

6.4% of households are without a vehicle.

So you're talking about here in the Columbus metro region, there are 6.4% of all households do not have a vehicle to get to work and rely on some form of public transportation or otherwise.

Of that, I mean, you're talking 4.6% are white households.

14.3% are black households.

So I think as Intel strives to be inclusive in its hiring processes, it's going to need to take a very strong look at public transportation and how do you get different populations that maybe don't reside in looking county out to their operations in addition to roads and public transit.

California also says there will likely need to be upgrades to broadband and cellular service in the area.

The green areas of this map show the highest Internet speeds, with red showing the slowest as Intel starts construction.

Facebook's new parent company Mazda, is planning to expand its facility in New Albany to real estate.

Companies are spending $400 million on land to develop a datacentre campus and industrial park.

And this week, the Washington, D.C. based company DB Data announced $1,000,000,000 project.

You the Intel site The bottom line is there are a lot of things to do and they need to happen quickly.

Intel plans to open the first phase of its operation in 2025 Joe Ingles Statehouse News Bureau.

Voter registration is up in the United States, with politics making headlines every day and midterm elections that will decide which party holds the U.S. House and Senate coming up.

That's not a surprise, but what is notable is analysis from multiple sources showing or projecting that women are outpacing men in registering to vote by double digits in some states.

While Ohio does not ask for gender on voter registration forms, there is data that suggests that that is happening here, too.

But Democratic political data and data services firm Target Smart has been looking at publicly available voter registration data from Ohio and around the country since the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark decision legalizing abortion in June.

In Ohio, Target Smart estimates women have outpaced men in registering to vote by 11 points.

They're younger.

More than half of those new registrants are under 35.

Overwhelmingly, they live in cities or suburbs.

And with all that data and others considered as a group, they're more likely to vote Democratic than Republican.

Tom Bonier is a Democratic political strategist and the CEO of Target Smart.

So the majority of the data that we collect is data that's provided by the state.

It's publicly available voter data.

What we do is we just aggregate it and we compile it so we can view it in the context of past elections.

We do then append other data sources, sometimes consumer data sources.

We also build predictive models But, you know, from a partizan perspective, it's incumbent upon us to make the data as accurate as possible.

Meaning there's nothing to gain by trying to skew the data one way or another.

The campaigns we work with need accurate data.

So when you talk about getting the numbers from the state, I want to ask you about specifically gender.

And I looked up the Ohio voter registration form and I've got it right here.

And there's no space on here for gender.

So how do you come up with a gender description or put people in a specific category in Ohio when it's not on the form?

So what we do is we use that publicly available voter file as the base or the analysis, and then we append all sorts of data from a bunch of different sources, literally thousands of different variables.

A lot of these come from commercially available consumer databases.

Think about the marketing databases that are used by companies when they're advertising into individuals.

And so that data is a lot more.

It has a lot more depth than the publicly available voter file.

So one of the variables that we append is gender.

And indeed, some of these variables, even the political parties do this to try to find voters that they can persuade and that sort of thing.

What you're doing here is not completely unique to what you do with a lot of data.

Services are doing the same thing.

Yeah, that's right.

This is a very common practice on both sides of the aisle.

You know, the era of big data in politics is something that began sometime ago.

It's always evolving.

And there's always more data being brought to the table, but it's something that is pretty commonplace at this point.

So what did you find as you were doing this modeling?

What did you find when it came to Ohio's voter registration?

And you've been really looking at voter registration since the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision in January.

That's right.

You know, I think there was an open question in terms of how that Dobbs decision would impact the November elections, understanding that it's a landmark decision.

There's no real precedent for this in terms of the 50 years of Supreme Court precedent being effectively vacated.

And I think there are a lot of theories about how this could impact the election, but not much data.

So we began to dig into the data in the first place.

To look was voter registration.

You know, we don't want to wait until the election takes place to begin to have a sense of who may be impacted and how.

And so we could look at real time voter registration data.

So we sat June 24th, the date of the Dobbs decision as the inflection point.

And we looked at the voter registration trends in Ohio before June 24th and then after.

And what we found was a very stark difference where after June 24th, women started registering to vote in Ohio at a much higher rate than men prior to June 24th.

When you look at the new registrants in Ohio, they're roughly even between women and men, which is generally what you would expect to see after Dobbs and since Dobbs.

Women have an 11 point gender gap advantage over men among new registrants.

Now you can't determine gender conclusively from voter registration forms, but you can determine age.

And it's I believe you found that voters, especially younger voters, are registering in big numbers.

That's right.

When you look at those new registrants, you know, generally they do skew younger than the average voter for obvious reasons.

A lot of times it's young when people are just turning 18 or getting their driver's license, they'll register to vote.

But what we found similarly is since the Dobbs decision, the voters who are registering to vote in Ohio are much younger than they were before.

At this point, with the latest data, we have.

58% of those voters who have registered to vote in Ohio since the June 24th Dobbs decision are under the age of 35, which is a pretty, pretty significant increase from just before that period.

Now, while that's a significant increase in voter registration numbers, we can't necessarily translate that to what might happen in November because this is a voting block that just doesn't turn out to vote as much.

In fact, they're about the lowest turnout block.

That's right.

The big question now is does this surge in intensity and a doozy chasm that we're seeing in voter registration translate into turnout?

You know, at this point, no one will be able to answer that question until Election Day.

We did see in 2018 there was a similar surge in registration among younger voters that did eventually translate into an increase in turnout among younger voters.

But time will tell if that's the case in this election cycle in Ohio.

This state has been red for quite a while.

Five executive offices, supermajorities in the Ohio House and Senate majority on the Ohio Supreme Court, though in this last year, the chief justice of the Ohio Supreme Court has sided and agreed with the three Democrats in ruling that our legislative and rational maps are unconstitutional.

Those are being used even though they're unconstitutional, gerrymandered in this November's election.

Our congressional map has gone from 16 to 15 and likely to once again be dominated by Republicans.

So in a state that really has a history of a lot of Republican election wins.

How do you think Democrats and Republicans are going to do this year?

Is there any way to extrapolate from the data you have?

Well, the big question is how valuable is that past precedent or to what extent did Dobbs shuffle the deck enough that we'll see something different happen And again, no one can answer that question until the election happens.

I think Democrats looking at Ohio maybe take some hope from looking at results in Alaska, where Democrats picked up a House seat in a very red state.

You look at Kansas and the ballot initiative there where the pro-choice position succeeded, surprisingly by 20 points.

Again, Kansas, a very Republican state.

And so there's some evidence that perhaps the past precedent and his historical trends aren't going to hold to form perhaps as much as they have in previous elections.

But again, time will tell.

And what can you tell about the people who are registering in Ohio?

Again, you can't know some things like gender.

You also can't know whether people are registering as a Republican or a Democrat in Ohio because we don't do that.

We we are the only way you become affiliated with the party is to vote in a primary for somebody from that party.

So what can you tell about the people who are registering in Ohio and what party they're likely to fall into?

So we do build predictive models on Partizanship.

They're far from perfect, but they do provide a good indicator because of the datasets that you mentioned.

We have a good sense of what a Democratic voter and what a Republican voter looks like.

And we can rely on the different variables we have at the individual level on these voter files.

And so from a comparative sense, what we can tell is that the voters who are registering to vote in Ohio and who have registered since the Dobbs decision in June look a lot more like the Democratic voters who are already on the file than Republicans at this point by almost a two to one margin.

When you look at just those women voters who have registered since dropped very substantial margin where they're much more Democratic leaning from the model perspective than those who were registering prior to Dobbs.

There are about 7.9 million registered voters in Ohio now.

Since 1994, Republicans have won all five statewide executive offices of Governor Attorney General Auditor, Secretary of state and treasurer except in 2006 when all those offices but auditor were won by Democrats.

Ohio has had one US senator from each major party since 1969.

But between 1975 and 1995.

Both Senators were Democrats John Glenn and Howard Metzenbaum and from 1999 to 2007.

Both were Republicans George Voinovich and Mike DeWine.

Two weeks from now a few hundred people from the 30 branches of the NAACP in Ohio will be in Columbus to talk about the work ahead for the next year.

They will be attending a two day conference on issues critical to black Ohioans such as education voting and criminal justice reform.

Democratic former state senator Tom Roberts heads the NAACP in Ohio.

This is our 92nd state conference and at the national level the theme was that this is power.

And so I've taken that same theme and made it the power of us in the each one of the workshops will focus on the power of us and a equal justice system, the power of education, the power of us in media.

So each one, the workshops will take off on that theme.

So I'm very excited about the workshops and our speakers who we've invited to our 92nd state convention.

You have listed as a tentative special presentation, something involving the FBI and U.S. attorney, and I know you can't talk about who involved who might actually be your speakers, but why those particular entities?

Why have you invited them to come speak to your group?

I actually did a workshop or a seminar with some earlier in the year.

It's very important for our units to know who is in charge of the FBI in the U.S. Attorney's Office in their jurisdiction Often we get complaints, often we get harassed as the situation going on right now in Springfield.

And it's important.

Springfield, Ohio, it's important for those presidents to know firsthand, just as we know the police of chiefs and the sheriff's office who are our partners at the national level.

So that's why we invited them is a continued conversation with with our national partners in law enforcement.

One of your speakers is Justice Melanie Stewart.

The Ohio Supreme Court justices have gotten in trouble in speaking to some groups.

What are you expecting Justice Stewart will be able to say to your group?

Well, first of all, I want to keep her out of trouble because we need her at the Ohio Supreme Court.

You know, she is the 116th justice She is the first woman elected black woman elected to the Ohio Supreme Court.

So whatever she shares with us, I think will be important and relevant.

And that's why I want the delegates to know some of our elected officials and especially the judiciary.

Very few of our folks and people in general know many of the judges say, you know, other than the municipal court judges.

So part of it is to continue to educate our delegates on the judicial system.

And justice.

Melanie Stewart is just a fine individual.

I think she'll deliver whatever message she delivers, I think will be relevant to what we want to hear.

When you talk about education, I'm sure voter education is going to be a part of what you're going to be doing for the rest of the year.

Voter turnout is going to be a big deal for both Republicans and Democrats.

Voter turnout, though, among blacks has been decreasing.

So how do you combat that, especially going into a midterm election where voter turnout tends to be lower than in a presidential election?

Yeah.

You know, in all of my political career, I've never used the term midterm or off year election because I think for our voters and for everyone every election that supports that township trustee, the school board member to the president, United States, those elections are important.

And that's the kind of message we want to continue to deliver hope that we have to elect people at the state and local level who are going to have our best, best interests in mind.

The black agenda, the things we stand for, economic development, education, criminal justice reform, people who are going to be our voices in whatever body they are in.

So part of what we have to do is really sell people.

You're right there.

There's a lot of dissatisfaction going on right now.

Things that happen in the nation's capital.

Turning people off to our democracy.

But it has been the voice of of CB has been the voice for democracy for over 113 years.

And so that will be our message.

How important it is to elect people to those offices.

There's going to be a criminal justice or bail reform amendment on this year's ballot in Ohio.

Are you concerned at all about that?

Yes.

It's a terrible amendment and we will be campaigning against it.

You know, I've been involved with groups statewide for the last three years talking about bail reform.

Talking about issues of jail overcrowding.

And this I think we need to stay focused on really what Bill was intended for.

And I think this is going to distract voters from really working at the local level to get true bail reform.

And I know groups over the years have been unusual.

Groups like ACLU and the Buckeye Sheriffs of the Buckeye Association working together for true bail reform.

I think this Constitution amendment is a distraction and we will be working against it.

Are you trying to just reach Democratic voters?

Should there be an assumption that all black voters are Democratic voters?

No, that is absolutely true.

We want to reach any every voter.

That's why I belong to several constituent groups at the state and local level, progressive thinking people, so we can move the bodies into information, into the voting booths and vote.

So, yes, my to be honest with you.

The NAACP was created by multicultural race of people, black and white.

It was a white female who started with what you may be, Dubois.

So from the very beginning, the history of CPP has been multiracial and generational.

So, yes, our goal is even though we are focusing in on the securing of political, economic and social rights of all people.

Not much of our constituency happens to be people of color, but by no means do we limit it there.

Our national board, our founders, who are both black and white, I imagine that as you're trying to reach voters, especially younger voters, you run up against voter apathy and the concern that why should I vote my vote doesn't count.

Nobody wants to hear my voice, especially when you've got gerrymandering, which the Ohio Supreme Court says is in both the legislative maps and the congressional map.

And also and those maps are being used this fall and also through restrictions on voting laws under the auspices of tamping down on voter fraud.

How do you reach people who feel like nobody wants to hear my voice?

And again, I think that's part of our job, is to sell that there is no voter fraud.

Every secretary of state has said that there's no voter fraud, but yet people say it and people repeat it.

And so I guess I still go back to we have been a a organization of hope.

We've been an organization to help people see what what is the right way and what is what we should be doing You know, we often call ourselves the premier imminent civil rights organization in the nation.

19 09 when we started.

So we will be around as long is as the rights of people of color are not respected.

And I'm just not going to leave it there because we will say the rights of all people.

You know, even though much of our constituency will be people of color.

But we we will work for the best of the democracy and especially in times like this when the democracy is being thrown under the bus so many times.

Robert says the conference will also feature a report from the Ohio Department of Education on how to close the academic achievement gap between black students and other kids, which goes back decades.

Next week on this show, we start a series of interviews of the major party candidates for the five statewide executive offices, ending with the candidates for governor as early voting starts next month.

First up, the candidates for treasurer.

Republican incumbent Robert Sprague and Democratic opponent Scott Scherzer.

And that's it for this week for my colleagues at the Statehouse News Bureau of Ohio Public Radio and Television.

Thanks for watching.

Please check out our website at State Newstalk and follow us and the show on Facebook and Twitter.

And please join us again next time for the state of Ohio.

Support for the statewide broadcast of the state of Ohio.

Comes from medical mutuel providing more than 1.4 million Ohioans peace of mind with a selection of health insurance plans online at med mutual dot com slash Ohio by the law offices of Porter Wright Morris and Arthur LLP Now with eight locations across the country, Porter Right is a legal partner with a new perspective to the business community.

More at Puerto right dot com and from the Ohio Education Association representing 124,000 members who work to inspire their students to think creatively and experience the joy of learning online At OHEA.org.