- This war is of existential importance for Russia.

Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and widely in Europe's East, or the future of Russia will be very bleak.

[bright upbeat music] - Hello, and welcome to "GZERO World."

I'm Ian Bremmer, and today we still have a lot more questions than answers about Vladimir Putin's political future and Russia's war in Ukraine, following the most surprising and chaotic weekend in Russian politics since the war began.

On June 23rd, Wagner Group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, accused the Russian military of attacking his forces and launched an armed rebellion that made it within 125 miles of Moscow.

And then as quickly as it began, it was over.

Less than 24 hours later, Prigozhin called off his attempted coup.

He announced he would flee Russia and the Kremlin dropped the mutiny charges in a deal brokered by Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko.

The crisis represents the single most brazen challenge to the Kremlin's authority in post-Soviet Russia.

Nothing else is even close.

In the near term, not much is expected to change on the battlefield in Ukraine, but in the medium term the damage has been done.

Putin emerged from the chaos looking a lot weaker.

Losing the aura of invincibility is every strong man's worst nightmare.

And I spoke with former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Dimitri Trenin, about Russia's view of the Ukraine War and the Kremlin's belief that it's fighting an existential battle with NATO just hours before Prigozhin announced his rebellion.

Don't worry, I've also got your "Puppet Regime."

- Desperate people are turning to actual books for summer entertainment.

- But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Announcer] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Announcer] Every day all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains.

[vibrant music] With a portfolio of logistics and real estate, and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today, learn more at prologis.com.

- [Announcer] And by, Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

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Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead.

And... [bright music] [air whooshing] - There are two sides to every story and then there's the truth, and it's a good lesson to keep in mind when it comes to the Ukraine invasion, which is a war of artillery and airstrikes but also a war of information.

Both sides are digging in for what looks like a slow grueling counter offensive this summer, and both have a huge interest in manipulating the public narrative in their favor.

After 24 hours of chaos, following Wagner Group head, Yevgeny Prigozhin's attempted coup about face, and then exodus to Belarus, Russian President, Vladimir Putin needs to project an image of stability and complete control.

[fanfare music] For Ukraine, the truth of the counteroffensive is only that it's happening.

[speaking in foreign language] - [Ian] President Zelensky is staying quiet about goals and that's exactly the point.

As the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in early June, "Plans love silence."

The truth is Ukraine's army will likely try to reach the Sea of Azov, breaking up the front line and cutting off Russia's land bridge to Crimea.

So far, they've launched long range attacks on the frontline in the South, and localized strikes in places like Bakhmut to probe for Russian weaknesses.

Kyiv also has its fingerprints on cross-border attacks in Belgorod and in Moscow.

But early reports of heavy casualties and equipment losses show that so far, at least, the Ukrainian Counteroffensive is going worse than planned.

But inside Russia, the story of the Counteroffensive is a lot different.

[speaking in foreign language] - [Ian] With no independent media and very little access to the outside internet, the Kremlin completely controls the messaging, especially on Russia's popular political talk shows.

[speaking in foreign language] - At the start of the war, the pundits enthusiastically supported what Putin called his "Special Military Operation," repeating the Kremlin's claim that it was fighting Nazis in Eastern Ukraine.

When it became clear the invasion wasn't going as planned, the rhetoric expanded to justify a longer war against a much bigger threat.

[speaking in foreign language] - On state media, NATO and the collective West have launched a formidable offense using all their power and military strength with a singular goal of destroying Russia.

The invasion has gone from a special military operation to an existential war for the survival of the country.

Now that messaging has changed, but the themes are familiar to anyone paying attention to Putin.

The Russian president thinks the collapse of the Soviet Union was, and I quote, "The greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century."

In Putin's view, Russia only lost territory, influence, and money when former Soviet republics like Georgia, Estonia, and Ukraine, formed their own governments after the fall of the Soviet Union.

[speaking in foreign language] - Putin doesn't see his former neighbors as allies or even as independent countries, but rather as traders who bit the hand that fed them.

And for a loyal Russian TV audience of tens of millions that's their version of the truth.

My guest this week, Dmitri Trenin, is someone who says he fully believes that truth.

He's the former director of the Carnegie Moscow Center and former colonel of Russian Military Intelligence.

Before the war, he was someone who could speak even handedly, even critically about Russia, and translate its motivations for a western audience.

But after the invasion and after months of saying there was no way it would happen he rebranded himself as a hardliner.

I think it's important to hear the Russian perspective to better understand the path to compromise.

Here's our conversation.

Dmitri Trenin, thanks so much for joining us on "GZERO World."

- Thank you very much, Ian.

Thank you for having me.

- Let me start with where we are right now.

We are at the beginnings of this Ukrainian counter-offensive.

How do you think the war is, from Russia's perspective, how is the war going?

- Well, I think that the war has taken on a character of a war of attrition.

So I think most people here expect the hostility is to last a while, maybe a long while.

The war is not seen as one between Russia and Ukraine proper, rather it's seen as a war between Russia and the US-led collective west with Ukraine, the tip of the spear.

But I think most people believe that Russia will ultimately prevail.

The issue is at what cost, how long it would take what sort of an effort would be also needed inside the country, to what extent Russia will mobilize its resources to fight the war.

Most people over the last 16 months have learned to adapt to a very strange reality of a major war being waged with, I think outwardly, the country looking very much the same.

- So, Dimitri, I mean, it's true certainly that the Russian economy has not collapsed and a lot of the early expectations of the West that the sanctions would have have not played out in terms of the way the Russian economy is functioning.

But at the same time, I mean, a lot of Russians have been killed, a lot of Russians have been injured, hundreds of thousands of Russians have been sent into the fight, young men.

Of course, more than that have fled the country.

How are people responding to that aspect of the war?

- Well, I think again, it very much depends on whether you have someone, a member of the family, on the frontline, or if you don't.

I think that those who who have their family members out there fighting or or in the forces close to the front line, you will be very concerned about what's happening.

You'll be very, very concerned about your loved ones.

On the other hand, if you are not in that category in places like Moscow, you don't really feel that a lot of people are focused primarily on the war.

- You suggested that Russia feels like they are fighting against NATO, and I mean, of course we're not talking about NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine, but I assume you mean the intelligence support the military support, the training, all of that.

Do you think that Putin was aware, before he made the decision to invade on February 24th, that he was going to be fighting against NATO?

Did he expect that level of support of Ukraine from the United States and its allies?

- My guess, based on publicly available information, Putin's own statements, the concept of the special military, the operation as it appears to outside observers, I don't think that initially there was much expectation of any sort of fighting.

There was also some expectation, I think, that what used to be called healthy forces within Ukraine, say the pro-Russian element in the Ukrainian political class, would use this opportunity to to actually topple the Zelensky government and come to power, and then welcome Russian forces, and relying on the support of the bulk of the Ukrainian Army who would be fighting the Nationalist Battalion such as the Azov, and then some of the others.

- I'm wondering, I mean, you said that Russia views itself as fighting against NATO.

Russia, of course, is largely fighting by itself, only Iran really providing significant support because of course, the Iranians are already sanctioned very heavily by the west, they have less to lose.

How disappointing is it for Russia that, I mean, in this war that you are suggesting the Russians are perfectly legitimate in fighting, and they're fighting against all of NATO, that Russia has to fight basically by itself?

- Well, I think it's taken as a fact, and there was no expectation of Russia's formal allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, such as Kazakhstan and some of the others, to join Russia in that fight.

There was no real expectation of China joining Russia in that fight.

China is certainly a superpower, and China will do what is in China's interest.

Engaging in a proxy war against the United States, on the side of Russia is certainly not believed to be in China's interest.

But, China has been an important source of various materials, civilian materials, and when Russia's trade with the European Union, its largest economic partner, collapsed virtually, China picked up part of that.

Again, acting out of its own interest, not out of any favor to Russia.

Russia is not expecting favors from anyone.

So it's not seen as disappointing, but rather it's seen as Russia being, well, the word punished is wrong here, but Russia being ganged up against because of its, because of its determination to protect and defend its own national interest, that's how it's seen.

- Given that Russia's essentially fighting by itself with Belarus against, you know, the most powerful military actors in the world, you know, doesn't this imply that the Russian leadership needs to have a sense of reality for its own people, for its own survival, for its own long-term perspectives, and therefore needs to be more modest about what it thinks it can actually accomplish?

- Well, Ian, I think that the Russian leadership and the bulk of the Russian people have a sense of history.

So this is not the first time that Russia has been confronted by, let's say, the combined forces of the west.

This is the first time, however, that Russia has no allies in the West.

We had allies in both 1812 and 1941 wars, in Britain in the first case, and the United States and Britain in the other one.

This time, the entire West is against Russia, and that is ascribed to the success of US foreign policy, to the success of US, call it hegemony, call it dominance, call it leadership, whatever you want to call it.

The United States has the power and it has shown that power to mobilize the West against Russia.

I think this supports the thesis that this war is of existential importance for Russia.

Either it protects its national security interest in Ukraine and widely in Europe's east or the future of Russia will be very bleak.

- There was a belief among American defense analysts and NATO defense analysts that once the Russians invaded they would be able to roll over Ukraine very quickly.

They were wrong.

They saw the incompetence, they saw the inadequacy of Russian defense forces and that made the Russians look very weak.

What do the Russians need to do to not look so incredibly weak on the global stage?

- Well, they need to win.

They need to win that war in Ukraine defeat the combined forces of the West in Ukraine.

That's the only path to winning back credibility in the West.

And I would say that initially you would recall what I was saying when I was commenting on the Special Military Operation.

It was certainly much more special than military, Putin was not preparing to fight.

He was preparing, I think, to deter, to, you know, to give backing to the internal Ukrainian forces who would rise up to the occasion and, you know, do the toppling of the regime in Kiev, that sort of thing, and make place for replacement regime.

Russia did not start the war with the shock and awe.

Although it had the capability- - But, I mean, it's certainly true that Russia did not try to destroy Kyiv or try to take it, and it failed.

I do think it's interesting that, I mean, Russian deterrence no longer seems to stand up to the Americans, the Europeans, others providing longer range missiles, F-16s, all of these things.

I have seen growing levels of saber-rattling, nuclear saber-rattling, from people like former Premier President, Medvedev, some from President Putin himself.

And I'm wondering how you think about the Russian nuclear force/deterrent, the largest in the world, and the role that it does or should play?

- Well, I think that one of the surprises of this entire conflict was the inability of Russia's nuclear deterrent to keep the United States from intervening in a proxy conflict, in a proxy war, in an area of utmost strategic importance to Russia.

Ukraine is a huge place.

It's the largest country in Europe outside of Russia.

It's a country that is led by a virulently anti-Russian regime, which has been in existence since 2014.

This conflict started eight years back or nine years back, and it's been a conflict, low level, low intensity conflict waged mostly in Eastern Ukraine.

This conflict did not start out of the blue on the 24th of February.

It has at least a nine year history preceding it.

and if you look back a decade before that, you can see that this whole business of Ukraine being invited to NATO, being conditioned with the elite being drawn into the Western camp, this was a challenge that essentially no Russian leadership would've been able to tolerate.

- So again, the Ukrainians should not, a country should not have a sovereign right to decide which strategic alliances it wishes to be a part of.

That's the perspective, right?

- When Ukrainian leadership was negotiating NATO membership for Ukraine, the idea of NATO membership was supported by a minority within Ukraine, and yet the leadership was very much pushing that forward.

Now, again, various countries can take various leaderships, and various countries can take various decisions, but each decision carries a price, and that applies to Russia, that applies to the United States, that applies to Ukraine.

And what I see today, and what worries me most today, is that the trajectory of the Ukraine crisis, I see this trajectory taking us all, and I mean you and me as well, toward a direct military collision between Russia and NATO.

And if there is such a collision, then you know, an exchange, a nuclear exchange between Russia and the United States may not be seen as a fantasy.

- You've also been directly involved in some high level, and not reported, at least not not widely reported, sort of track two, track one and a half discussions between Russians and Americans, trying to see if there might be any way to end this confrontation.

Do you come away with any sense of progress or hope from those discussions so far?

- Well, I wouldn't characterize them necessarily as either track one and a half or high level, but certainly there's been no attempt, to my knowledge, between the two countries to start discussing how to end this conflict on terms that would satisfy the interests of the respected parties.

I think it's important though, to stay in touch, to keep the lines of contact open.

For 30 years we've built relationships, and we learned to respect one another, we learned to see and accept the differences that separate us.

But we also trust, still trust I think, many of our colleagues on the other side as professionals.

And my conclusion, as of today, is that political leaderships are not there yet to think in terms of a new equilibrium and the new geopolitical setup in that part of the world.

The US strategy, which is built on Russia being a weakling, and there being no limits to how much the United States, or how far and how high the United States can escalate this conflict, makes me think of a Russian roulette with a nuclear bullet sitting in the revolver.

And this gives me a lot of fear, a lot of concern.

- I take that very seriously, Dimitri, that's again why I wanted to talk to you, and I really appreciate you coming on the show today.

- Thank you again, thank you.

[bright music] - And now Summer is officially here, time for "Puppet Regime," where world leaders have some ideas for your summer reading list.

- With no new television shows and skyrocketing movie prices, desperate people are turning to actual books for summer entertainment.

So to help you choose what to pretend to read this summer we've assembled some world leaders, President Biden, please begin.

- For my pick, I'll go with something that's really been resonating with me lately.

"Never Retire: What You Should Do Now To Keep All Your Options Open."

- Grim, and I like it.

Okay, next up we've got, Vladimir Putin.

- Uh, I have like billion things on my night table at once, like who can ever finish one book at a time?

But currently I'm reading Sartre, "No Exit," and also "Things Fall Apart."

- Okay, you know, you can always relax by watching "Swan Lake."

Now let's go to our next guest.

Look who just dialed in.

Mr. Trump, what are you reading these days?

- Oh, a lot.

Let me tell you, it's just piled all the way up in the Mar-a-Lago bathroom, I mean the library, well also the library, but it's just a complete- - Sir, could you just say one book?

- Well, fine, if I must.

I've really enjoyed this very challenging little number called "Which Witch is Which?"

- Finally the witch hunt you've been talking about.

Okay, one last one here we've got, whoa, hey, MBS from Saudi Arabia, what's on the royal reading list these days?

- Oh hi, yeah, I'm reading last year's Nobel Prize winner, Annie Ernaux, her sparse autobiographical portraits of a woman navigating her own desires amid the ingrained misogyny of rural France are just, ugh, extremely moving.

- Well, okay, well there you have it.

Reading really can change your perspective on- - Guys, if you don't read this book, so help me, God, I will have you dragged out, cut into pieces and- [Host gasps] Oh, am I still on?

♪ Puppet Regime ♪ - That's our show this week.

Come back next week, and if you like what you see, or even if you don't, but you're thinking, hey, maybe Iranian disinformation, we got the Russia stuff.

Check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[bell dings] [upbeat music] [bright music] - [Announcer] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Announcer] Every day all over the world.

Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains.

With a portfolio of logistics and real estate, and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today, learn more at prologis.com - And by, Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at Cox.career/news.

Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, and... [bright upbeat music] [bright music]