>> Gene: IT IS ONLY JANUARY BUT NOT TOO SOON TO THINK  ABOUT THE WATER WE MIGHT SEE FEEDING THE RIO GRANDE THIS  SPRING.

THE NATIONAL WATER AND CLIMATE  CENTER IS PART OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND  TRACKS SNOW PACK IN THE WEST'S RIVER BASINS, PROVIDING  FORECASTS FOR SNOW MELT.

THESE FORECASTS ARE UPDATED  THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE YEAR TO HELP WATER  MANAGERS AND FARMERS AND THE REST OF US KNOW WHAT TO  EXPECT.

OUR LAND LAURA PASKUS SPOKE  THIS WEEK WITH ANGUS GOODBODY AT THE NATIONAL WATER AND  CLIMATE CENTER AND HIS COLLEAGUE JAZ AMMON AT NEW  MEXICO SNOW SURVEY PROGRAM IN ALBUQUERQUE TO UNDERSTAND  WHERE WE STAND AHEAD OF SPRING.

>> Laura: GUS AND JAZ, THANK YOU FOR JOINING ME TODAY.

I APPRECIATE IT.

GUS, I WOULD LIKE TO START  WITH YOU.

THE NRCS JUST PUT OUT THE  JANUARY FORECAST FOR THE -- JANUARY WATER FORECAST FOR THE  RIO GRANDE.

GENERALLY SPEAKING HOW DO  THINGS LOOK RIGHT NOW?

>> Goodbody: GENERALLY  SPEAKING THINGS ARE LOOKING BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MOST  PART AS FAR AS OUR EXPECTATION FOR SPRING AND SUMMER RUNOFF.

IT SORT OF DEPENDS ON WHICH PORTION OF THE BASIN WE ARE  TALKING ABOUT, BUT RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE EARLY SNOW  ACCUMULATION IS FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN  IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY,  ALONG WOLF CREEK PASS, IN THAT AREA.

>> Laura: SO, JAZ, ON THE GROUND, WHAT ARE YOU SEEING  OUT THERE IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE WATERSHED?

>> Ammon: I WAS ON ONE OF OUR WEATHER STATIONS IN THE TAOS  AREA, ACTUALLY ON THE PROPERTY OF THE TAOS SKI VALLEY,  GENERALLY, AND THINGS WERE PRETTY LOW.

ESPECIALLY I THINK COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME FOR THIS YEAR,  LAST YEAR.

SO,   WE DID GET SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ACTUALLY  AFTER OUR SURVEY CYCLE SO THAT IS A LITTLE BIT OPTIMISTIC.

THAT WEEKEND FOLLOWING OUR CUTOFF FOR THIS MOST RECENT  SURVEY, OR THIS MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLE, MAY PLACE A  BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC OF A PICTURE, BUT THINGS WERE  LOOKING LOW IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE HEADWATERS WHEN I WAS  UP THERE.

>> Laura: I WANT TO REMIND OUR  AUDIENCE THAT WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SNOWPACK IN  THESE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS, WE ARE NOT JUST TALKING ABOUT  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT HITS THE GROUND.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE OTHER FACTORS THAT GO INTO  WHAT AFFECTS THE SNOWPACK?

>> Ammon: OUR PROGRAM  SPECIFICALLY REALLY FOCUSES ON THE SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT IN  THE SNOW.

SO, THAT IS SORT OF A DENSITY  MEASUREMENT, HOW MUCH ACTUAL WATER IS PRESENT IN THAT DEPTH  OF SNOW.

FOR THE RECREATION COMMUNITY,  SKIERS OR SNOWMOBILERS, THOSE TYPES OF FOLKS, DEPTH IS  PROBABLY THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT FACTOR THEY ARE  FOCUSED ON AND DENSITY MAY BE A SECONDARY FACTOR.

AND FOR US THAT SNOW WATER FACTOR REALLY IS WHAT WE ARE  MEASURING.

>> Laura: LAST YEAR YOU AND I  TALKED ABOUT SOME OF THESE SAME ISSUES.

CAN YOU EXPLAIN FOR PEOPLE HOW THINGS LIKE MAYBE TEMPERATURE,  GROUNDWATER DEFICITS, THINGS LIKE THAT MIGHT AFFECT SNOW  PACK?

>> Goodbody: SURE.

SO, IT IS MORE SO ABOUT HOW THE SNOW IS GOING TO MELT IN  THE SPRING TIME AND SOME OF THE THINGS YOU MENTIONED  REALLY CAN IMPACT THAT.

WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT  THERE IS IF WE HAVE DRYER SOILS OR DRYER GROUNDWATER  CONDITIONS, IT MAY TAKE MORE OF THE SNOW MELT TO REPLENISH  THOSE BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN OUR  STREAMS IN SOME CASES.

THIS YEAR IS A LITTLE BIT  DIFFERENT THAN THE MOST RECENT YEARS, IN THE SENSE THAT WE  HAD QUITE A STRONG MONSOON THIS SUMMER, SO SOME OF THOSE  DEFICITS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE RIO GRANDE  BASIN IN THE MOST RECENT YEARS, WHILE NOT COMPLETELY  GONE, ARE CERTAINLY IN A BETTER POSITION THIS YEAR.

SO WE DO EXPECT RUNOFF SUFFICIENCIES FROM THE SNOW WE  GET THIS WINTER TO BE BETTER PERHAPS THAN IN PAST RECENT  YEARS.

>> Laura: THAT IS SOMETHING  NICE TO HEAR.

I KNOW THAT YOU ALSO LOOK AT  THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WHICH IS HUGE BUT, YOU KNOW, I AM  WONDERING JUST A LITTLE BIT HOW THAT WATER SUPPLY FORECAST  IS LOOKING THIS YEAR.

>> Goodbody: SO AS A WHOLE,  THE UPPER COLORADO IS UP TO A DECENT START THIS YEAR WITH  WELL ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK IN MUCH OF THE BASIN.

IT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE WEST WIDE THAT HAS SORT OF BEEN THE  CASE.

IN A SENSE THE RIO GRANDE  BASIN IS THE ONE AND MAYBE THE ARKANSAS, THE TWO BASINS, THAT  HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS EARLY SEASON MOISTURE TAP THAT  WE HAVE SEEN FROM A LOT OF THE STORMS COMING OFF THE PACIFIC.

>> Laura: SO, ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THINGS CAN DEFINITELY  CHANGE FOR THE WORSE AND FOR THE BETTER, WHAT CAN WE  GENERALLY EXPECT FOR THE WATERSHED OVER THE NEXT FEW  MONTHS?

LET'S START WITH YOU GUS AND  THEN WE'LL TALK TO JAZ TOO.

>> Goodbody: THAT IS A REALLY  IMPORTANT POINT IS THAT WE ARE EARLY IN THE SEASON RIGHT NOW.

SO, WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING TO DETERMINE THE RUNOFF IN THE  SPRING AND SUMMER IS LARGELY BASED ON WHAT IS YET TO HAPPEN  THIS YEAR.

YOU KNOW, OUR ABILITY TO LOOK  FORWARD AND ACTUALLY PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHAT TO  EXPECT FROM THE REST OF THIS WINTER IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

I WILL SAY THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF A  THIRD CONSECUTIVE LA NINA YEAR, WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT  REAL FAVORABLE AND FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE RIO GRANDE  BASIN, BUT, AGAIN, IT IS REALLY VARIABLE YEAR TO YEAR,  EVEN WITHIN LA NINA TYPE YEARS.

SO I AM NOT RULING ANYTHING OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE THING WE KNOW NOW IS WE ARE OFF TO LESS SNOW THAN  WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WHICH DOES NOT  NECESSARILY BODE WELL FOR WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE  SPRING AND SUMMER BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO TURN THAT  MESSAGE AROUND.

>> Laura: JAZ, DO YOU WANT TO  ADD TO THAT?

>> Ammon: I WOULD JUST SAY  THAT AS THOSE FOLKS WHO LIVE IN NEW MEXICO WILL BE WELL  AWARE, OUR LANDSCAPE HERE IS VERY WIDELY VARIABLE  THROUGHOUT THE STATE SO THE UPPER RIO GRANDE IS GOING TO  BE A LOT DIFFERENT THAN MAYBE A DIFFERENT MOUNTAIN RANGE IN  THE GILA OR OTHER AREAS SO WHERE YOU LIVE SPECIFICALLY  MAY GET SOME KIND ANOMALOUS SITUATION OR OUTLOOK ACROSS  THE RIO GRANDE MAY NOT REFLECT THAT SPECIFIC AREA VERY  ACCURATELY, BUT GENERALLY WE ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT MOST DATA  IS STILL YET TO COME SO WE CAN'T DRAW ANY STRONG  CONCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT BEING THE JANUARY FORECAST  CYCLE.

>> Laura: SO, I KNOW, YOU  KNOW, WE HAVE HAD SOME ROUGH YEARS FOR FARMERS, FOR THE  CITY AND CERTAINLY FOR THE RIO GRANDE ITSELF.

WE WERE KIND OF BALED OUT LATE IN THE SEASON LAST YEAR WITH  SOME GOOD MONSOONS BUT IT SEEMS TO ME LIKE IT IS NOT TOO  EARLY FOR PEOPLE TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING  UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

I AM CURIOUS FROM BOTH OF YOU  WHAT YOU WISH THE REST OF US WOULD MAYBE BE PAYING BETTER  ATTENTION TO.

>>   Goodbody: IT IS SORT OF BACK TO THE SAME THING, THAT  WE ARE LIMITED AS FAR AS BEING ABLE TO PREDICT INTO THE  FUTURE.

AND A LOT OF THE WEATHER THAT  IS STILL TO COME THIS SEASON IS REALLY WHAT IS GOING TO  DICTATE WHAT OR RUNOFF IS.

SO A LOT OF OUR FORECASTING,  PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY SEASON, IS MORE ABOUT GIVING A  RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES AND THEIR LIKELIHOODS ESSENTIALLY.

SO, I ENCOURAGE PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, TO LOOK AT THE FULL  PROBABILISTIC FORECAST AND TRY TO DIG A LITTLE DEEPER THAN IS  IT GOING TO BE ABOVE OR BELOW, BECAUSE JUST SOME THINGS ARE  JUST NOT KNOWABLE.

>> Laura: WHAT ABOUT YOU JAZ?

ESPECIALLY, YOU'RE OUT CHECKING THE SNOW LEVELS AND  STATIONS.

WHAT DO YOU HOPE THAT THE REST  OF US WILL PAY ATTENTION TO THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE  SEASON?

>> Ammon: WELL, ONE OF THE  INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT THE RIO GRANDE AND THESE OTHER  MAJOR RIVER BASINS IS THAT THEY ARE HIGHLY MANAGED BASINS  SO OUR FORECASTS ARE SPECIFICALLY FOR UNIMPAIRED  STREAM FLOWS AND WE HAVE A LOT OF RESERVOIRS AND OTHER  FACTORS IN THOSE WATERSHEDS THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH  WATER IS IN THAT RIVER AT YOUR PARTICULAR LOCATION.

SO, IT IS HARD TO DRAW A DIRECT COMPARISON BETWEEN SNOW  ACCUMULATION, SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AND AMOUNT OF WATER  THAT IS ACTUALLY IN THE RIVER.

>> Laura: ONE LAST QUESTION.

I AM CURIOUS, YOU KNOW, I FEEL LIKE ONE OF THE THINGS WE  TALKED ABOUT HERE ON THE SHOW IS THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS  THAT ARE VERY PREDICTABLE IN TERMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THAT A  WARMER WORLD FOR THE SOUTHWEST TENDS TO BE A DRYER WORLD, BUT  WE ALSO TALK A LOT ABOUT HOW CLIMATE CHANGE HAS MADE  CERTAIN THINGS LESS PREDICTABLE AND LESS SURE.

I AM CURIOUS WHAT YOU BOTH MIGHT HAVE TO SAY ABOUT, YOU  KNOW, WHAT WE CAN ANTICIPATE IN FUTURE YEARS WITH RESPECT  TO CERTAINTY OR UNCERTAINTY IN THIS CHANGING CLIMATE?

>> Goodbody: THAT IS AN INTERESTING QUESTION.

YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THE BASIS FOR OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THESE  SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO RUNOFF DOES HAVE TO DO WITH WHAT WE  HAVE OBSERVED IN THE PAST, TO SOME DEGREE.

PERHAPS, THE BIGGEST THING THAT CLIMATE CHANGE PRESENTS  AS A CHALLENGE TO US FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IS THAT  SOME OF THOSE PIECES MAY NOT BE STABLE, MEANING THEY MAY  NOT BEHAVE THE SAME WAY THEY HAVE IN THE PAST, WHICH  ULTIMATELY DOES LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL  UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECASTING GOING FORWARD.

THAT SAID, I WILL SAY THAT A LOT OF THE CHANGES WE ARE  EXPERIENCING FROM CLIMATE CHANGE TENDS TO BE INCREMENTAL  IN NATURE AND THEREFORE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONTEXT OF  THE UNCERTAINTY WITHIN FORECASTING ALREADY,   I AM BASICALLY SAYING IT IS QUITE  UNCERTAIN AS IT IS RIGHT NOW.

SO OF THESE NEW UNCERTAINTIES,  WHILE CONCERNING DO NOT INVALIDATE THE CURRENT  FORECASTS.

>> Laura: ANY LAST WORDS, JAZ?

>> Ammon: I WON'T ADD TOO MUCH TO WHAT GUS SAID BUT I WILL  SAY KEEP -- STAY POSTED FOR WHAT IS YET TO COME.

WE NORMALLY DO A SUMMATION OF THE CONDITIONS WE HAVE  OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE WINTER, LATER ON IN THE  SPRING, FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.

SO THAT IS WHEN WE REALLY HAVE A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE OF WHAT  TO EXPECT MOVING FORWARD INTO THE SUMMER AND THE IRRIGATION  SEASON.

>> Laura: THANK YOU BOTH SO  MUCH.

WE'LL ALL DEFINITELY BE PAYING  ATTENTION.

SO, THANK YOU.