♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ Gavin: Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson.

The 2024 presidential campaign continues to heat up.

Seven Republican candidates debated this week, including South Carolina's Nikki Haley and Tim Scott.

Missing though former President Donald Trump, who was in Somerville this week for a rally, USC's political science chair Kirk Randdazzo joins us to analyze the debate.

But first, we take you to Summerville for the Trump campaign event.

[silence] Former President Donald Trump made his fourth appearance in the Palmetto State this year on Monday, touring The Sportsmen Boats plant in Summerville, where he gave his stump speech to a crowd of more than 2000 people for around 40 minutes.

and most importantly, were at levels against crooked Joe, that nobody's seen because you just don't see that with Republicans.

They have certain advantages, as you know, they have certain areas of the country that regardless of good or bad they want to vote for these people.

I think they I actually think they're changing their tune also.

Because nobody, nobody can want to vote for this guy.

Nobody.

and maybe he makes it to the gate.

I don't know if he makes it to the gate.

I don't think it even matters anymore.

Because they have been so disruptive to our country.

What they've done is a party, that I don't even think it matters who they get to put in and a guy from California that's destroyed that state.

Trump: They're going to put in Kamala Actually our numbers are better against Kamala!

Kamala than they are against Joe.

So maybe we'd like Kamala too.

But 2024 is our final battle.

With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state we will expel the war mongers.

Get them all out of our government.

We will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the communists, the Marxists, the fascists.

and we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country.

We will route the fake news media, those people right there, they're fake so many of them.

Gavin: I spoke with several of his supporters who make up his robust and unwavering lead in every national and early voting state Republican poll, including a Fox Business poll that puts Trump at 46% and former Governor Nikki Haley in a distant second at 18%, surpassing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 10%.

And Senator Tim Scott at 9%.

Trump supporters don't care about his four criminal indictments, or South Carolina's own two homegrown candidates.

Glen: 2016 is what got me I like standing points he had to hear all these other politicians, but I had a gut feeling when he kept speaking, he was going to actually deliver what he did.

And he finally did.

A president finally did what he said he was going to do.

And now he's willing to do more.

and I promise you, he'll make it happen.

Cyndi: I've supported him from day one.

and I will continue to support him because of everything that he did for with our police officers, with our families, with just with everything.

Regarding the family, he's very strong, and I believe he's the strongest candidate when it comes to family values.

Debbie: Because he never should have been out.

The country was doing great when he was the president.

He stood for everything morale, and he still does.

We are living in an evil time right now.

I can't even believe It's like the epitome of evil.

but he's not having any of it.

No matter what it is.

He's could keep he'll keep those borders shut.

He'll keep the children safe.

You know, It's just we're living in it.

It's an atrocity.

What's happening in this world.

Gavin: Trump again skipped the Republican presidential debate.

This time, Wednesday night in California.

The more candidates attacked him this go around, as well as each other.

Gov.

Desantis: And you know who else is missing an action.

Donald Trump is missing an action he should be on this stage tonight.

He owes it to you to defend his record, where they added 7.8 trillion to the debt.

That set the stage for the inflation that we have now.

Sen. Scott: Black families survived slavery.

We survived poll taxes and literacy tests.

We survived discrimination being woven into the laws of our country.

What was hard to survive was Johnson's Great Society where they decided to put money [applause] where they decided to take the black father out of the household to get a check in the mail and you can now measure that indexed unemployment and crime and devastation.

Nikki Haley: Infuriating because Tik Tok is one of the most dangerous social media apps that we could have and what you've got I honestly every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say, because I can't believe they hear.

Tik Tok situation What they're doing is these 150 million people are on Tik Tok that means they can get your contacts, they can get your financial information, they can get your emails, they can just say messages.

and this is important.

This is very important.

Mixed: This is very important.

I'm gonna say you've got a new house, you're gonna make medical in China, not America, excuse now wanting kids to go and get on this social media that's dangerous for all of us.

Sen. Scott: Talk about someone who has never seen a federal dollar.

She doesn't like.

10 cents on the gallon in South Carolina.

As the UN ambassador, you literally bring in $50,000 on curtains and a $15 million subsidized location.

Next.

Nikki Haley: You got bad information.

First of all, I fought the gas tax in South Carolina multiple times against the establishment.

Mixed: was when they wouldn't pass the gas tax the establishment that companies wanted me to do it so much, that I said the only way I will do all three.

<All you have to do is go watch Nikki Haley on You Tube.> If you won't give me three times the deduction in income tax, then I will look at your gas tax.

Secondly, on the fifth is a nice part.

Secondly, on the occurrence, do your homework Tim Because Obama bought those curtains does this on the back.

It's in the in the back.

It's state departments.

Do you send them back?

You're the one that works in Congress.

Oh my gosh, you get hung up on your curtains.

Before I even showed up at the residence you are scrapping.

Gavin: The next Republican presidential debate is November 8th in Miami.

Joining me now to discuss the latest on the 2024 presidential campaign trail this week is Kirk Randazzo.

He's a political science chair at the University of South Carolina.

Kirk always great to have you on set.

<Appreciate the invitation.

Thank you.> So Kirk, a lot to talk about.

Obviously, we're just now five months away from the South Carolina primary, a little over three months to the Iowa caucuses.

And we just had our second Republican debate this week.

The debate was two hours long.

It started off pretty cordially, but that didn't last very long.

I just want to ask you kind of what you took away from this debate?

Kirk: Well, I think there were a couple of points, the the most obvious of which is that Donald Trump did not participate again.

and here's the front runner and all the polls, that is just not adhering to the norms of a primary cycle.

But his absence not withstanding, I think some other good takeaways were how other candidates performed, especially Nikki Haley, I think she had a remarkable debate, again, very similar to what she did the first time around.

And you saw some other candidates like Tim Scott, in particular, trying to establish himself a bit more maybe emerge a bit more from the pack and not really clear whether he was successful or not.

And then I think the third sort of major takeaway was the absence of Mike Pence, even though he was on the stage.

He really didn't seem to contribute much to that debate at all and I think his performance was a lot less than what he had hoped.

Gavin: Yeah, It's interesting that you talked about Pence too, because he had a lot more time.

Speaking time in the last debate this time looks like DeSantis, kind of around the table there with 12 minutes and 27 seconds, followed by Vivek Ramaswamy.

Tim Scott getting more time too.

but when we talk about what expectations were, do you think that the folks delivered on what they were expected to do in that debate?

Many major gaffes and anything kind of maintaining their status.

Kirk: Well, I think they delivered from the standpoint of the secondary figures to Donald Trump, so they were able to talk maybe a bit more about their ideas are their policy goals.

But where I think they failed is in terms of demonstrating to the average voter, why they should pick that candidate rather than Donald Trump there.

There was a little bit of attention given to Trump but really not nearly enough.

No conversations about electability or any of Trump's weaknesses.

Maybe with the exception of Chris Christie, he always kind of comes out punching.

But none of the other candidates really took the reigns to carve out their space in relation to Donald Trump.

Instead, they carved out their space in relation to each other.

Gavin: Sort of attacking the man that wasn't there.

Yet.

DeSantis seemed to have maintained he was in the middle of that debate stage.

Pretty much like he did in the first debate.

No gaffes, but nothing over the top spectacular either he did attack Trump saying Donald Trump is missing an action he should be on the stage tonight.

That came right after Chris Christie kind of said the same thing, right.

So it almost sounds like an echo.

But you're seeing a little bit more of that.

but again, not enough of that to really differentiate themselves.

Kirk: So not enough of that.

and for DeSantis, in particular, given how his campaign has floundered pretty significantly over the last few months, this was an opportunity for him to reset things, re frame himself, and demonstrate that he is the viable alternative.

and I'm not entirely sure that that he landed comments where he needed to, in order to cast that signal or set that expectation.

Gavin: Yeah, and then kind of sticking with Trump here, didn't really seem to be affected.

Like we're saying that his campaign did feel the need to send out an email toward the end of the debate saying the real Nikki Haley, titled the real Nikki Haley, and kind of just talking about some of the things that she's stood for Ukraine flip flopping or running for president other things.

but these are just links to articles, not statements of she's still pulling a solid number two in South Carolina, New Hampshire.

and that was because of that big debate bounce in the first debate.

Do we see something similar happening after this one for Haley?

Kirk: I think so I think out of all the people on the stage, she had a remarkable performance again, so this is now two in a row.

and I think the extent to which we see the poll numbers shift in any real or meaningful way, it will be in Nikki Haley's favor, I think she demonstrated that she knows the issues.

She's not afraid to throw some elbows back and forth.

You know, she and Tim Scott got into it a little bit.

She and Ramaswamy got into it a lot again, and she had some some really funny lines to respond to potential attacks on her and I think it just demonstrated that she's got the material to be President of the United States.

Gavin: Yeah.

Do you think that gets across?

I mean, she gets some zingers.

and like you said with Ramaswamy mean it kind of like debate part two but then we also saw her and Tim Scott, like, get into it.

Because one of the moderators, Dana Perino was kind of saying that up towards the end of that, right, like, let's see what's going on between you two, because there are so many similarities between them.

Kirk: Yeah and for Haley, and Scott in particular, I think they need to distinguish themselves, not just from Trump, but in particular from each other.

Otherwise, they run the risk of splitting the vote in South Carolina.

and they really need this state in order to get some momentum going into Super Tuesday.

and so I think Haley, with her jabs with her responses, I think she had a better showing than Tim Scott did, and really, is likely to give the average voter some information that they didn't otherwise have, that maybe sways things in her direction.

Gavin: Really making the most of those few coveted seconds.

So they have to answer these questions, but also get a jab in too, I saw a political headline that said, Tim Scott has a pulse.

I don't know if that's the headline, I would want coming out of a debate, I would hope folks would recognize me.

But that was because of the first debate.

He was kind of fading in the background there.

and I think at one point during this past debate, a lot of questions were kind of going around the first half, and he said, Can you all not see me heard him say that one point cuz he wasn't getting enough time to.

but in the back half, there was a lot more going on with that energy, that dynamic between them.

So did he register with folks more so this time, even though maybe didn't go all the way?

Kirk: So I think he had a better performance this time than than the first one?

You're right.

the first one, he was an incredibly minor player, and really didn't get much attention at all.

This time around.

He got into the fray a bit more.

But I'm not sure it was enough, simply because of the fact that he always sort of fell back on his typical talking point how, you know, his life is maybe an exception to the rule, though he doesn't frame it that way.

He just says, Hey, if I could do it, anybody could do it.

and I'm not entirely sure.

That's a message that resonates with many people.

And so he needed to change things up a little bit.

and he did so I think at the margins, but I'm not sure it was enough to really get a significant bump in any of the polls that we're about to see coming out the next few days.

Gavin: And that's what but I talked to Trump voters this past week, when he was in town in Summerville.

You hear them say that they like his grittiness and like when Trump is not the nicest guy when he's hitting back against people, so I think we're maybe seeing some more of that tenacity coming out of Nikki Haley.

And Tim was trying to get some of that he was trying to scrape a little bit with their with him in Vivek Ramaswamy.

You hear DeSantis trying to be like the adult in the room too.

I mean, is everyone trying to channel that Trump Trumpism that attitude but can't really go full bore?

Kirk: Yeah, I think I think the lesson that all candidates Republican and Democrat alike We need to learn from this is that a very large segment of the population is just mad.

They're mad that things aren't better than the they should be.

They're mad at the economy and inflation at wages that aren't keeping up.

They're mad that folks in Washington DC don't seem to represent their interests and so there's a lot of anger that's out there.

Trump, whether you love them or hate them, has done a remarkable job tapping into that anger.

and I think some of the other candidates are trying to do that, but not send the signal that they will have maybe other behaviors that are less appealing that Donald Trump seems to exhibit.

and that's a really difficult line to walk.

and I'm not sure anybody has mastered that approach yet.

I think they're still trying to feel out different talking points, different phrases, to see what might resonate with the populace.

Gavin: Yeah.

Cuz the Mr. Nice Guy, bit maybe doesn't work entirely.

Well, for Tim Scott.

Kirk: Right.

Yeah.

and I think it works when it comes to governing.

but it doesn't necessarily work when it comes to campaigning.

and that's sort of the big difference.

and I think that's a difference that Donald Trump sort of forgot about.

His four years in the presidency, felt like one giant campaign still, and there was less of an emphasis on actually governing.

And I think the folks on stage last night, are trying to play up the governing side of things, but forgetting that all of this needs to be couched within a campaign and you have to demonstrate that you are willing to fight for the beliefs you have for the ideals that you articulate.

Gavin: And then that kind of goes into electability, on top of all that, you know, the primary is so different from the general election.

but it doesn't seem to matter.

Right now, according to polls, folks still want Trump across the board, whether It's in early voting states, or national polls, how does that mesh with what we're hearing from these candidates right now?

Kirk: Well, I think the one thing we should all recognize is that polls this far out, are wildly inaccurate, that six months from now, when we see things that happen on the ground during the primaries, or maybe during some of the trials that Donald Trump is facing, those numbers are going to shift.

and as we get closer to November, those numbers are going to shift pretty dramatically.

So right now, polls give us a snapshot of where people are in time.

But I'm not sure they're very useful in predicting what will happen when it comes time to vote for particular candidates.

So So I think we got to take all that with a with a grain of salt.

That said, I think for Joe Biden in particular, the early polls should be of a concern, because he's he's trying to point to all these accomplishments over the last couple of years.

And that message doesn't seem to be resonating with people, at least not to the point where It's moving the needle on any of those polls and so I think Biden should should change the message that he's arguing to the American people right now and for someone like Donald Trump or any of the other candidates, I think they need to recognize this is where the electorate is currently at least within the Republican primary.

This is where they are currently.

and if we don't play to that, we're not going to even be in the general election, let alone have a chance to win.

So So I do think there's information candidates can take for the rest of us.

I wouldn't use it as any kind of predictor for what will happen next November.

Gavin: Yeah, Kirk, I mean, we talked about Trump and his his legal cases, obviously, his supporters are just empowered by that.

That's what they tell me.

They're not worried about that.

but it is gonna get a little messy when we start talking about these criminal cases going forward next year, right after the February primary here in South Carolina, right around Super Tuesday, when you're talking about the election interference case, that's gonna be March 4th, right now, the hush money case, March 25th, classified documents, May 20th.

and then there's also several cases going forward before that, too.

So there's got to be some concern or maybe some hope for some of these other candidates that things will get so messy when it comes to those cases that they'll have a little bit of a hope or a glimmer of hope that they can pounce on and start capitalizing on just how how complicated situate the situation is.

kirk: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right.

and just as an example, you know, one of the... One of the things that people liked about Donald Trump was his success as a businessman, alright?

And they looked at the Trump Organization and see the name on all these properties.

And Trump played that to his benefit to say, look, I've been incredibly successful.

and I will take that to the White House.

Well, just this past week, we learned from a judge in New York that Trump got part of where he was maybe a large part of where he was by simply lying and artificially inflating the value of properties, so that he could get additional loans in order to do business.

That really hammers at his reputation as a successful businessman.

And that was really the core of Trump's identity.

So if candidates will pick up on that and use that to hammer the point that Trump may be is more of a con man than he is a businessman that might start weighing a bit more with with voters.

But that's a message that's going to have to come out repeatedly.

You can't just say it once and hope that people listen.

And I'm not entirely sure if if any of the candidates right now are willing to take that step because it means taking Donald Trump head on.

And we all know when that happens, he'll come back out fighting.

And to this point, most people have just backed away and not challenged him directly.

Think that's what the candidates is going to have to start doing really quickly.

Because as you said earlier, there's not a whole lot of time until people start voting in the various primaries, or caucuses.

Gavin: Yeah, and I'm sure that some of their testing with their polling, internal polling to see if they can get away with attacking him like that, because they're making these, you know, small attacks here and there, they're starting to come out more and more.

but It's going to be interesting to see how they use that, especially when they gave him the cover of saying, Oh, this is a weaponized Department of Justice going after this guy.

It's gonna be kind of hard to use that and then also attack him right.

Kirk: Yeah, although that excuse, I think is going to be harder to sell, given that the Department of Justice just indicted Bob Menendez, the senator from New Jersey, for things like bribery, and some of that some of those similar things that Trump has been accused of.

And so I, with that example, in play now, I think the weaponization of government, or the DOJ in particular, that starts to ring a bit more hollow than maybe it did previously.

Gavin: And everything going on with Hunter Biden, in the impeachment.

There's a little red meat there on the Republican side, too.

We have about three minutes left Kirk and I'm gonna ask you just about what we can expect going forward.

Now, obviously, we're talking months from now.

But let's talk starts to ring a bit more hollow than maybe about a couple weeks from now what we're gonna have the third debate November 8, candidates will need to have 70,000 individual donors and hit 4% either two national polls or one national poll and two polls from separate early voting states.

I'm expecting us not to see as many people on that debate stage next time.

Will we start seeing people dropping out when the the writing's on the wall, I mean, whats it gonna take for these people?

Okay not gonna happen?

Kirk: Yeah.

and that's, I think that's an excellent question.

We've we've seen a couple of candidates drop already.

But but you heard last night, the final question from Dana Perino was, hey, who should get voted on off the island.

<Little cringing, Right.> and it was an awkward, awkward moment.

but I do think <One of many right.> And one of many exactly.

I do think though, candidates are going to have to start asking themselves very seriously, is it worth staying in the race, and I'm thinking people like Burgum, Christie, Pence, maybe even Tim Scott, that are polling still in the single digits in in many polls, that's going to be a very difficult decision for them to make.

but you're right, the bar for the third debate has gone up.

It's gone up every single time.

This is why we lost a Aisha Hutchinson from Arkansas.

I think these other candidates are really going to have to weigh whether It's worth staying in, and whether they're going to have the money to stay in because that's the other big question.

Will donors continue to trip... continue to contribute to the to the campaign's of people that are just scraping by at the margins?

I'm not sure that's going to happen.

And so folks, I think you're going to start dropping out in the next couple of weeks.

Gavin: Again, It's interesting because you know, you do see them still raising money here and there sometimes in the millions but these debates also provide a way for these donors to kind of look on in a Hunger Games type style way of saying who can do what it helps them then it hurts many of them too.

So really quick, anything that you're watching for besides that in the coming weeks on the campaign trail?

Kirk: I'm really waiting to see candidates take Donald Trump on directly.

It's still been very hesitant at best, maybe kid gloves with a jab here and there, but nothing, nothing really of substance.

And I think in the next couple of weeks, that has to happen in order for them to gain any kind of traction.

The second thing I'm very curious to see is the extent to which Trump is going to duck the third debate.

So we got some criticism last night for not being there on stage.

Will the other candidates or maybe more importantly, will the Republican Party put pressure on Trump to participate in the third one?

That's a huge question.

And I'd love to see, I'd love to see him on stage and get into that debate.

I'm just not sure that he is that he will.

And so if he doesn't, what kind of consequences or repercussions might he face for just blowing all of that off?

And I think that's a huge question that we'll find out in the next few weeks.

Gavin: Yeah, It's an ever changing landscape when it comes to politics.

Love to watch for that's USC political science chair Kirk Randazzo Kirk, thanks as always.

Kirk: Appreciate it.

Great to be with you.

Gavin: To stay up to date with the news throughout the week, check out the South Carolina lead.

It's a podcast that I host on Tuesdays and Saturdays that you can find on southcarolinapublicradio.org or wherever you get podcasts for South Carolina ETV, I'm Gavin Jackson.

Be well South Carolina.

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