Funding for To the Contrary provided by the E. Rhodes and Leona B. Carpenter Foundation, the Park Foundation and the Charles A Frueauff Foundation.

Hello, I'm Bonnie Erbe' A powerful black female prosecutor charges a white former president and members of his family with massive fraud.

Donald Trump denies the charges and calls her move racist.

Then is the blue wave fading since the red ruling that created it?

The Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case was issued?

♪♪ Hello, I'm Bonnie Erbe' Welcome to To the Contrary, a discussion of news and social trends from diverse perspectives.

Up first, Dukes up in New York court, Former President Donald Trump took his family to the White House while he was in office.

Now he's taking them to the courthouse.

New York Attorney General Letitia James is suing Donald Trump, three of his adult children and his company on charges of large scale business fraud.

The suit seeks $250 million and could bar them from entering the office of any New York based company for five years.

James says, quote, For too long, powerful, wealthy people in this country have operated as if the rules did not apply to them, end quote.

James, a black woman will be up against a white former president who was supported by and supported nationalistic groups.

What can we expect from a trial?

The Trump Organization also faces criminal prosecution over its business dealings.

And Trump is the focus of a federal investigation for removing sensitive classified documents from the White House and storing them in his seaside Florida mansion Mar-a -Lago .

The Trumps and Trump organizations deny wrongdoing.

Joining me today are former GOP House member Nan Hayworth, the Wisconsin Examiner's Ruth Conniff Podcaster Danielle Moodie, and Washington Examiner columnist Tiana Lowe.

Danielle, do you think Donald Trump is going to know what hit him when he starts dealing with Letitia James?

No, I don't think that he's going to know what hit him.

I think that Letitia James has put together a three year investigation that has uncovered a tremendous amount of fraudulent criminal activity that Donald Trump and his family have been a part of for well over a decade.

And I think that her referral to both the IRS and the Department of Justice show us that she is not here to play games, that she is very serious about the accusations that she has made and she has the information to back it up.

Do you think she needs to worry about her security, her personal security?

I mean, we know that anybody who takes on the right just online is subject to all kinds of death threats.

Bonnie, come on With all due respect, threats have come against conservatives that I know personally that are at least as vile as anything thrown against the left.

This is a regime media point of view that somehow only folks who challenge conservatives and Republicans are subject to calumnies or feel threatened in any way it is.

To the contrary, it is is the left.

It is the Democrat Party that seeks to wield the power of government, the lethal power of government very forcefully against the citizenry.

It is the right.

Former Representative Hayworth.

It is.

It is the right.

The far right that is pushing for legal access to military style weapons and it is the right who in abortion cases years ago killed some doctors.

On January 6th killed people, including Capitol police .

They did not And conservatives as well as people who criticize Donald Trump have faced a lot of threats.

That's just reality.

OK, I'm not without even touching January 6th, which I believe all mainstream Republicans heavily condemned No, I wish they did No, they haven't.

Nan, please finish quickly and then we'll go to other people.

Go ahead.

In fact, it is the Democrats and the left over and over again who seek to use the lethal power of government.

That is the defining trait of government, that it can use lethal force against the citizenry, against American citizens, starting with the weaponization of the IRS, against conservative groups during the Obama administration and going right through to the weaponization of the DOJ and the FBI against Donald Trump when he was both a presidential candidate and president.

Last time I checked, the IRS didn't slaughter anybody.

Okay, there.

Is.

And neither do conservatives.

Are you kidding me?

Nan, let's like can we operate in a place of reality?

Like I just don't like?

-Yes, I want to No, apparently you do not.

Because if you take January six just on its own merit and you see the Trump flags, along with the American flags used as weapons against police who you all claim to back and support.

But when they were actually trying to protect members of Congress, they turned around and said, Oh, these are people that are vile, that are un-American.

Again, are you kidding me when you talk about the threats that have that have been waged against Democrats across this country by your party.

You were talking about kidnaping, threats against the Michigan governor.

You were talking about threats against your own threats against your own vice president.

And people and people talking about hanging the vice president of the United States.

Like what reality do you all operate in?

It is scary, actually.

It's frightening.

I mean, I totally agree with Danielle.

We are seeing the rise of violent white supremacist action here in Wisconsin.

I mean, we had people, three people killed in Kenosha by Kyle Rittenhouse, who was acquitted.

But admitted to doing the shooting.

We had a call for militia to come into our state, to take arms and take to the streets.

And with all due respect, Representative Hayworth, you know, having your taxes come over by the IRS is not the same as having people come to your town with automatic weapons looking to kill you and take justice into their own hands.

That is what we're facing.

And it's really important that conservatives denounce it, that they distance themselves from the really hateful stuff that Trump has stirred up in this country.

It's dangerous.

All right.

Tiana Okay, let's not forget that literally last month, cops had to stop an assassination attempt against Justice Kavanaugh.

All the all the Republican appointees, almost Supreme Court need 24 hour security because you have these radical leftist doxing them coming to their house, which, mind you, in Virginia, where most of them in Virginia and in Maryland, some of that political protest is illegal on private property.

Right.

But just to bring this back to what this is about, this is about this Trump case.

Look, I am a conservative who would be very happy with a Ron DeSantis candidacy, with a Glenn Youngkin candidacy.

I denounced Trump on January six and said that he should have been impeached and removed from office.

I still stand by the fact that it is time for conservatives to learn from what was good about that presidency and move on.

That being said, first it was Russiagate, then it was Ukraine Gate.

We've had two impeachments and we've always heard the walls are closing in, the walls are closing in.

Letitia James, to your credit, straight shooter, she is someone who was instrumental in getting Andrew Cuomo out of office.

I give her plaudits for that.

I'm not going to I don't know why Trump is making this about race because that's ridiculous.

Not everything has to be about race.

Maybe because he's a racist But my secondary thing is is is he had three she had three years of this investigation.

She came into office promising to lock Trump up and the best they could get is some financial stuff in a civil lawsuit.

The fact it isn't criminal I mean, the problem is let's let's move on.

I do want to get to the federal.

There were some interesting rulings from a court of appeals, including two Trump appointed judges, One Obama appointed judge, a panel who who agreed with the Justice Department saying that his claim of executive privilege, which has never in the history of the Supreme Court, been applied to serve a former president, was bogus.

And it, of course, now can be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

We'll see what happens there.

But Nan, were you surprised, were you pleased that two Trump appointed judges ruled against their former president who appointed them?

Well, I'd like to think that judges performance in office is not biased by the president, by whom they were appointed.

So I certainly am not displeased nor pleased by this ruling on that basis.

Clearly, there are many issues that remain to be resolved in this in this case.

And the one thing that I will say is that everybody is going to deserve their day in court.

And this DOJ and FBI have proven over and over again.

And in fact, there are whistleblowers now within the FBI who are starting to make clear, to make the case that there has been tremendous bias against against Donald Trump himself, against conservatives.

There has been a drive to create a narrative that somehow conservatives and Republicans and white Americans in general are problematic.

And this this is a this is a problem.

This is a problem for the nation.

So let the rule of law prevail.

Ruth, do you agree that that the legal system is going unfairly against Trump?

No.

And I think Trump has said that over and over again.

And I think we should not downplay the significance of this case.

Yes, it is a state level case.

No these are not criminal charges However, it's all been shared with federal prosecutors, and we don't know when the next shoe is going to drop.

But just on the face of it, we've known for a long time that Trump is a huckster and a fraudster.

So these are details.

This has this gets him where he lives because he has the potential to lose control of his family business, to lose control of being able to do business in New York.

But the broader issue here is that the Republican Party is captive to this huckster.

And if I were speaking as a conservative person or for friends of mine who are conservatives, I would say, get away from this guy.

You know, it is really it does not do conservatives any good to be associated with Trump Except that they when they do dismiss him, they can't ever run for office or seek an appointment.

He crowds them out of the party, but then, you know, Danielle, one point I want to make is there's been a lot of criticism from liberals against Merrick Garland, who's the head of the Department of Justice, for moving so slowly.

One of the reasons is if you bring to trial a former president on something like treason.

That's a very hard, subjective case to win.

In the Capitol ever.

However, if.

You bring to the trial of former president for lying to Congress about improperly taking documents that did not belong to him and were very top, top secret, that is an easy case to make.

So your thoughts on that?

Me and my thoughts are that I wish that the Department of Justice would bring an indictment charge against Donald Trump because they have more than enough evidence on either one of the cases that they have been moving forward on.

I mean, the reality is that Donald Trump is dangerous.

The reality is that Donald Trump issued and authorized a coup.

Right.

Like the reality is that Donald Trump is continuing with his conspiracy Q-anon and on nonsense that is dangerous to our democracy.

And the fact is that the Republican Party doesn't care.

And the thing about what I will say, Bonnie, is that the Republican Party is not hostage.

It's not a hostage to Donald Trump.

They are willing participants and accomplices to the overturning of our democracy because it suits them, because guess what happens in an authoritarian regime?

You don't have to care about what the people want.

You don't have to care about going after votes because their votes no longer matter, which is why the Republican Party has instilled installed so many of their election deniers in places of power because they don't want to work for the American people's vote.

They just want to be able to do whatever the hell it is that they want.

And then you have people that are on here that don't even exist in reality and deny the truth.

The only reason why Donald Trump isn't in jail right now is because he is wealthy, he is white, and he is well-connected.

That's the reason why Donald Trump isn't in jail.

I have to say, as a former, as one who covered the Justice Department for nine years, Merrick Garland is a very scared person.

That's why he hasn't been indict (Correct) on the federal level.

But your thoughts, Tiana, before we go to our next topic.

Okay, let's say that everything you guys are saying is true.

Let's say that that Donald Trump is guilty of treason, which, again, the punishment for under the Constitution is execution by the state.

Right.

If that is true, that maximizes the incentive for him to run again.

Part of the insanity is, you know, I'm always told by liberals, why can't you just choose anybody else but Trump?

Yeah, I've been saying that for six years and let's go with Desantis Not Liz Cheney, not the warmongers, not people on Raytheon payroll, but okay.

Donald Trump has every single incentive, so long as he is perceiving, rightly or wrongly, that he is the victim of a of a legal witch hunt to run for office again.

Because we saw time and time again Office of Legal Counsel, a wealthy judgment show that the president is the only person who has that sort of legal immunity from prosecution and from civil lawsuits.

So if you are if you think Trump is actually guilty as sin.

and that these convictions will happen, of course he's going to run again.

This is part of my issue where I never want to say that we should allow anyone to be above the law.

That doesn't make any sense to me, you're saying.

And two sentences to respond and then we need to move on.

You're saying that because he might run again for office regardless of whether he could get reelected, but that he might run again.

Nobody should prosecute him because that will make him want to run again.

That does as a proof, as looking at it from the perspective of a prosecutor.

That is not something that prosecutors take into account.

All I'm saying is that it is a perverse incentive structure where the more legal hot water he is in, the greater the incentive for him to run for president, for legal immunity from prosecution.

because he's using the presidency as a cover as opposed to actually wanting to care about the American people.

Nan, last word.

One sentence.

Based on the outcome of every antecedent proceeding against Donald Trump by the DOJ and the FBI.

I think there's probably a lot less to the steak than there is to the sizzle they're trying to generate in a crucial time before a midterm election.

The Democrats are probably going to lose big in because policy matters most.

Trump's policies were vastly better and Biden's policies are awful and they are bringing the country down.

That's why his approval rating.

All right.

That's it.

That's it.

Now we have to.

Go from from lawsuits to the midterms.

Will there be a red wave or a blue wave at the polls in November?

That depends on whom you ask.

Historically, it's the president's party that loses seats in the midterms, but this year may defy precedent.

The main variable is whether you think it's the economy, stupid, or if you believe the Supreme Court abortion decision overturning Roe versus Wade will be key.

A surge of women have registered to vote, but registering and actually casting a ballot are two different things.

Pollsters are asking whether Democrats can sustain enthusiasm as we head into the midterms.

And one positive change for the GOP is that even though the Hispanic population has traditionally voted Democratic, they may be tilting Republican.

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Democrats a 70% chance to retain control of the U.S. Senate and a mere 28% chance to hold the U.S. House.

But that percentage has risen steadily since the Dobbs ruling was handed down.

Your thoughts, Ruth?

Is that is the blue wave going to hold or not?

Well, I don't know that it's going to be a blue wave election, but I think it's going to defy history in that it's not really a referendum on the party that currently holds the White House because Trump is so common, prominent, and because his actions and the efforts to overturn elections, to seize control of election apparatus are so unprecedented.

In addition to the really bad news for conservatives that they got with the they caught the car they were chasing and overturned abortion rights.

That has caused a huge surge in voter registrations among women.

And here in Wisconsin, for example, where we have Senator Ron Johnson, one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the U.S. Senate.

It's a big problem for him.

Suburban women have been abandoning Johnson for quite a while.

He was one of the people who embraced January 6th.

Has said that those were great people who came in to the Capitol.

He's he's on the record saying all kinds of unforced errors, like we should evaluate Social Security every year instead of guaranteeing it to people.

And I think ultimately, because women in Wisconsin no longer have abortion rights, because Planned Parenthood is not providing abortions, because we have stories of women who with wanted pregnancies late in their pregnancies, who had severe complications, not being able to get the treatment they needed, their doctors waiting for them to go into sepsis before they can provide care.

It's a big deal here and people are okay.

All right.

All right.

Quick question, Mandela Barnes, his opponent, according to some recent polls, was only a point behind him.

Does he have a chance to win?

Ron Johnson is very vulnerable.

COOK Political Report put him in the toss up category that's almost unprecedented for a two term incumbent.

Mandela Barnes is our lieutenant governor, 35 years old, very dynamic, charismatic, young black man, first black lieutenant governor.

And, you know, there is a there is a real danger for Johnson.

All right.

Let's go to Nan.

You do not think there's going to be a blue wave, I assume?

Well, I don't think there's going to be a blue wave.

Look, and I find it remarkable.

I mean, just the the the arrogance to imagine that women are registering to vote solely because of Dobbs.

Dobbs was the right constitutional decision.

Many feel.

I happen to agree, and I am not someone who feels that there should be total bans on abortion.

But it was the right constitutional decision.

Everybody should know what every American citizen should know that the Constitution is the ultimate law of the land.

What these justices did was a constitutional decision.

But what we have to remember in terms of the electorate, in terms of the Hispanic vote, in terms of women's vote, is they are not monolithic.

I'm a woman who certainly does not intend to vote for any Democrats this year because I am concerned about the economy.

I am concerned about crime.

I am concerned about parental rights and education.

Note well that Glenn Youngkin and Winsome Sears.

Winsome Sears, an amazing black American who was the first.

She may be the first female lieutenant governor.

I think she's certainly the first black female lieutenant governor in Virginia history, one in significant measure because suburban parents, women and men turned out because they were very concerned about what their children are being taught in school.

So do not assume that somehow the women's vote is going to be monolithically based on doll.

Danielle, your thoughts?

Blue wave or not?

I mean, look, I don't believe in polls.

I think polls are like reading tea leaves.

And I prefer to pay attention to the lines that are going to be wrapped around polling stations as opposed to doing a whole guessing game 40 some odd days before the election.

The reality is, is that women are registering in large numbers.

And why is that?

Because they don't want to give over their body bodily autonomy to men.

Right.

Because they actually want to be able to determine their life outcomes and being able to decide when and where and if you want to be a mother is that big decision on what your life is going to look like in the future?

All right.

And Tiana, your thoughts?

Blue wave or not?

Okay, So I just want to point o it's not 1973.

The federal government legally mandates almost all private employers to fully fund my birth control.

So it's not I'm not barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen because all of a sudden we are saying that, yeah, a state is allowed to limit abortion to 15 weeks when a fetus is capable of feeling pain, has a heartbeat and can recognize its own mother's voice.

So now we have a 19th century abortion law in Wisconsin.

We have an abortion law that was written 71 years before women got the right to vote.

That's what we're living under, no exceptions.

Okay, the ACA is still in effect.

Private employers are still required under law to recall that No, women can not get an abortion in state of Wisconsin, even if they're in urgent, urgent medical crisis.

So let's not pretend this is all okay.

It is okay.

Because, again, this is not 1973.

We had Griswald, we have plan B, we had.

What are you talking about?

We have more choice then than my mother's generation did.

And now.

Okay, with regards to this blue wave, you know what number I'm thinking of?

Because I actually do believe in the polls, because science, The polls are not science The number I'm thinking of is 8.3%, 8.3% inflation year over year.

Core CPI doubling from month to month from to last month to this month, core CPI doubling.

The fact is, people can prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Not only do we have legal protections to do so, but most women I know are empowered enough to use birth control if they need birth control.

You know what?

You can't protect yourself from the dollar deflating by 8.3% in domestic purchasing power year over year.

People are people are feeling the squeeze.

I'm really looking forward to taking that to the hoop on Election Day and telling women, you know what, you're in a late term pregnancy crisis and your baby's dying.

You can't get an abortion.

That's not a problem.

What's a problem is CPI year to year.

You know, I really don't think you have a winning argument there.

Mothers are being unable to feed their children is a problem.

A baby formula shortage is a crisis.

A gas shortage is a crisis.

This is a reality we're living in now.

I mean, women are going across the border to Minnesota and Illinois.

It's like you said, it's an early term pregnancy.

But that's not the really ugly stuff.

The really ugly stuff now.

Is that because a woman has to actually be adjudicated about to die before the doctor can intervene?

Doctors are on the phone with their lawyers, with women in the emergency room who have wanted pregnancies and are in a severe health crisis, waiting to know at what point in the decline of their health near to death can they finally intervene?

It is barbaric.

But Ruth.

Wisconsin citizens can change their law to accommodate those situations.

That's a very interesting point.

No, in fact, our Democratic governor, we have divided government.

Wisconsin has proposed that Wisconsin citizens gain the ability to amend that 19th century abortion law.

The Republican legislature has called it a political stunt and rejected it.

So the voters have no power to get in there.

But that's not true of the state of Wisconsin.

We are about out of time.

That's it for this edition.

Please keep the conversation going on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram and visit our website, pbs.org, slash to the contrary and whether you agree or think to the contrary.

See you next week.

Funding for To the Contrary provided by the E. Rhodes and Leona B. Carpenter Foundation.

The Park Foundation and the Charles A. Frueauff Foundation.