GEOFF BENNETT: Welcome to the "NewsHour."

Former President Donald Trump's future now rests in the hands of a jury in New York City.

Jurors in the criminal hush money case against Mr. Trump began deliberating this morning.

AMNA NAWAZ: Seven men and five women received instructions from Judge Juan Merchan and were then sent off to decide this historic case.

William Brangham has been covering the trial from the start, and he joins us now.

So, William, let's start with those instructions that the judge gave to the members of the jury.

They're very important in this case, the subject of a lot of debate between the defense and the prosecution.

Tell us more about what exactly the judge instructed those jurors to do this morning.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You're right, Amna.

They are always -- they're important in every case, but particularly in this one because it is such a complicated case.

And the judge laid out several key issues.

First off, he stressed to the jury that a defendant can be held liable for the criminal acts of other people if the defendant basically instructed or asked or helped them to do so and did so intentionally.

Secondly, the judge then went through the 34 different charges, which all accuse Donald Trump of falsifying business records.

And those are 34 different checks and invoices and ledger entries, all in relation to the payment made to silence adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Third, he explained that, for those 34 charges to become felonies, not just misdemeanors, they must have been done to commit or to conceal another crime.

And, in this case, it is alleged that he was committing a violation of New York state election law, which basically prohibits someone's -- promoting someone's election through unlawful means.

And he explained that that could have been a violation of federal election law, falsifying other records or tax law.

Again, quite complicated instructions.

In fact, the jury today asked for a rereading of some of those.

Those apply to each and every count, and the jury on each of those has to be unanimous.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, William, this now sits with the jury.

It's an if -- it's a big if -- but if the jury does decide that former President Trump is guilty in this case, what kind of punishment might he be facing?

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: If he's found guilty on one count or 34 counts or somewhere in between, it is then up to the judge to decide his sentence.

And in New York state, judges have a lot of leeway in deciding the sentencing.

Each of these charges carries a maximum of four years and $5,000 penalty, four years in prison.

But it is not at all clear that the former president would be incarcerated.

He could be sentenced to probation.

He could be sentenced to house arrest.

Each of those latter two would give him more freedom.

I mean, all along, Judge Merchan has acknowledged the historic nature of who this defendant is.

I mean, this is a man who's running for president.

He ought to be out campaigning.

This is a man who very well could become the next president.

And so Merchan said it is a last resort for him to imprison Donald Trump.

But he said, if it comes to that and he feels it's necessary, he could do so.

Whether that happens or not, I mean, legal analyst Norm Eisen looked at all of the cases of felony prosecutions of falsifying business records, like this case, and found that about 10 percent of those cases ended up where the defendant went to jail for a period of time.

Now, those cases often involved other charges as well that Trump is not facing.

And, of course, none of those defendants were Donald Trump.

You also simply can't overlook Trump's history and his demeanor towards the rule of law.

I mean, this is a man who has been fined and gagged and warned and held in contempt by a lot of different judges in different cases.

He's never admitted guilt or remorse.

He has attacked this judge directly.

All of those things can be counted in sentencing.

So it's very uncertain.

I think anyone that tells you they know what's going to happen here, don't listen to them.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, this is, as you mentioned, a defendant who's also running for president.

And we obviously have to wait for the jury to reach a decision, but do we have any sense of how a verdict could impact, potentially, that presidential race?

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Yes.

Along - - very good timing here.

Along with our colleagues at Marist and NPR, we put out a poll that asked this question, what might happen if Trump were found guilty or not guilty and how that would affect their vote.

And I want to put up some of those results here.

If Trump is found not guilty among all registered voters, 14 percent said it was more likely they would vote for him; 9 percent said it was less likely he would get their vote.

Three-quarters of all registered voters said it wouldn't make a difference.

But among Republican voters, an innocent verdict bumps up that more likely to vote for him number to 26 percent.

The percentage saying they're less likely to vote for him drops to just 3 percent, and those saying it makes no difference, that goes down slightly to 68 percent.

Now, what if Trump is found guilty?

Among all voters, those saying they're more likely to vote for him stays unchanged, about 15 percent.

But double the number, 17 percent, say a guilty verdict means they're less likely to vote for him.

And 67 percent of all registered voters again say it wouldn't make any difference.

But, again, let's look specifically at Republican voters.

If he is found guilty, the number of Republicans saying they're more likely to vote for him goes up 10 percent to a quarter of all Republican voters.

The number saying they're less likely to vote for him rises to 10 percent.

That's a 7 percent shift; 64 percent of all Republicans say a guilty verdict would make no difference.

So, overall, this poll indicates that a guilty verdict could impact Donald Trump, but only at the margins affecting his electoral chances.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, that is William Brangham joining us from New York tonight.

William, thank you.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Thanks, Amna.