- Ukraine will become a member of NATO.

They'll also become a member of the EU.

The obligation we have now is to continue to help them prevail in this war because, in the end, if they don't prevail, there's no NATO, there's no EU.

[upbeat music] [gentle music] - Hello and welcome to "GZERO World."

I'm Ian Bremmer coming to you today from Munich, Germany, site of the 60th Munich Security Conference.

This annual gathering of world leaders and defense officials got underway as a grim milestone approached.

It has been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the deadliest conflict that Europe has seen in decades.

[guns firing] The war set in motion a global turning point, which has impacted everything from energy to food prices and supply chains, but also rallied a fraying transatlantic alliance into a unified front.

Still, while the vast majority of Ukrainians remain steadfast in their fight, political battles and crisis fatigue in the United States and the European Union are making a victory for Ukraine look all the more elusive.

I'll talk about the current state of the war with NATO's deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoana.

Later, the greatest moments of the Munich Security Conference over the past 60 years.

But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Narrator 1] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator 2] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Narrator 1] And by Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at cox.career/news.

Additional funding provided by Jerry and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and... [gentle music] [gentle music] - Two years into Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, one question looms large.

What's the plan?

By NATO's best estimates, 70,000 Russians have died.

250,000 have been injured over the course of the war, which constitutes some 90% of Russia's pre-war force.

Kiev is highly secretive about battle losses, but US officials in August put their death toll around 70,000 Ukrainian troops with well over 10,000 additional civilian deaths.

So as the conflict enters its bloody third year, I ask and try to answer that basic question.

What's the plan?

The contours of Ukraine's strategy may have shifted with the battle lines, but the core has remained the same.

Survival.

[suspenseful music] After fending off Russia's all out offensive in 2022, its much hyped summer counteroffensive last year was a bust.

[soldier shouting in foreign language] - Ukrainian ground forces today find themselves in as perilous position as when the war started, with the military's top commander telling a German journalist and I quote, "The enemy is now advancing along almost the entire front line, and we have moved from offensive operations to conducting a defensive operation."

General Syrskyi only recently took over Ukraine's military after president Zelensky reshuffled the country's military leadership for the first time since the war started.

Syrskyi replaced the highly popular General Zaluzhnyi whom Zelensky blamed for the failed counter offensive.

In the meantime, Ukrainian special forces have launched a series of audacious attacks inside Russia and in the Black Sea to try to keep Moscow on its back foot.

"What's Putin's plan?"

you ask.

That one's easier, wait out the clock.

Putin is banking on war fatigue, both from the Ukrainian troops in the trenches and the country's western backers, especially the United States whose purse strings are tightening.

And it may be a sign of Putin's growing confidence that Russian dissident Alexei Navalny died in an Arctic Circle prison earlier this month.

Here in Munich, I can tell you that the European Union's ironclad support for Ukraine shows some, and I emphasize some, signs of cracking.

Take the $54 billion in Ukraine funding the 27 EU nations recently agreed to.

That was only after Hungarian Prime Minister and Putin's closest European friend, Victor Orban, stood down on his veto threat.

His opposition is part of an increasing nationalistic tide sweeping Europe from France, the Netherlands, which privileges isolationism and a softer Russia stance.

So what's Europe's plan?

Keep the money flowing to Ukraine while it can.

In the United States, it may already be too late.

European officials that I've been talking with here are straight up freaking out about the US Congress inability to pass a significant funding bill.

And even if, and that's a big if, sympathetic House Republicans can pull a $95 billion rabbit out of a hat, it will surely be the last US penny that Zelensky will see until after the November election.

Military analysts say Ukraine will, at best, hold existing front lines with a new influx of American weaponry, and very likely fall back without it.

And speaking of that November election.

- They asked me that question.

One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, "Well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?"

I said, "You didn't pay?

You're delinquent?"

He said, "Yes.

Let's say that happened."

"No, I would not protect you.

In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.

You got to pay, you got to pay your bills."

- Candidate Trump referring to America's NATO commitments.

But this message was just as relevant to non-NATO member Ukraine.

If Trump prevails in November, any hope of further Ukraine aid from the United States falls closer to zero.

So what is President Biden's plan?

Pray to God that suburban moms and swing states stick with them.

But that's the topic for another day.

Back in Ukraine, 92% of their citizens surveyed last fall said that they would accept nothing short of a total Russian withdrawal from their country, that includes from Crimea, in exchange for peace.

And as this conflict enters its third year, that's what the fight is about.

It's about 44 million Ukrainians who overwhelmingly want to defend their territory, no matter the cost.

Is that enough to win?

Ask me next year, or maybe the year after that.

And we begin today with NATO's Deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoana, who I was speaking with as news broke, that Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, had been killed.

NATO, deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana.

So good to see you again.

- Good to see you again.

- So, Mircea, I don't want to surprise you, but I am literally just hearing that Alexei Navalny is apparently dead according to the international wires.

What do we think about a Russian government, a Russian leadership that continues to act in this way?

- I would say that this is a huge loss for the democratic world and for Russians, because there are lots of Russians that will love to live in a different country.

This is the sinister continuation of a tradition of gulags over Russian history.

And I met Navalny's wife and kid in Europe a few months back.

And I think, on a personal note, I think they were ready for him to make the ultimate sacrifice.

And I know that this kind of despotic instincts, that are rediscovered now in Russia, are doing Russia no good.

I think Navalny, even after his sacrifice for Russia's future, will become even more of a symbol and a martyr.

We are losing a great, great, great fighter for freedom.

And to be honest, I'm not surprised that this is the kind of instinct of despotic regimes is to eliminate, even physically, all competition, not allowing any descent, just one thinking, one rule.

And in the end, this will backfire.

You cannot keep...

I know from Romania.

I've seen dictatorship with my own eyes.

You think you are immortal in power, and one day, the people will find out that there is something else.

I only hope that the sacrifice of Alexei Navalny will not be in vain.

And I hope that this will be an example for the young Russians, the ones who know that there is also another kind of life possible for them.

And I hope that his inspiration will stay for the young ones.

- So here we're at the Munich Security Conference, the war in Ukraine, now a couple of years on, and tell me where you think it stands militarily right now.

- We gave the somber prediction at the beginning of the war.

This will be a war that will be long, and we are not changing our prediction that we don't see, on either side, enough resources to basically change the dynamic of the war, at least for the short term.

I think we've also made, in strategic communication, a little bit of over-optimism those before the counter offensive.

And now I think there is a little bit of over-pessimism.

I think the truth is somewhere in between.

You see the Russians becoming more dynamic on the frontline.

You see the Ukrainians doing massive positive things in the Black Sea.

- [Ian] Yeah, yeah, taking out a lot of the fleet, actually.

Yeah.

- So there are things that I think we should take them at face value and don't rush into conclusions, but it's clear that this will be prolonged, politically and militarily.

We don't see the conditions for any form of cessation of hostilities.

And I think the easiest way is for Mr. Putin to order to stop the invasion that he ordered two years ago.

- But nobody's expecting that- - Of course not.

And also, we don't expect Ukrainians, President Zelensky and Ukrainian people, to give up on their sovereign land.

So yeah, this is here to stay with us.

We have the obligation and the interest to continue to support Ukraine.

99% of the support for Ukraine comes from NATO allies.

And we anticipate that this topic will be front and center of the Washington Summit, our anniversary summit in July- - In July.

- Yeah.

- Now what I don't expect is gonna be front and center of the Washington Summit is a commitment for Ukraine to join NATO.

Or certainly, I mean, a timeframe.

Even though the Secretary General has still said that that is the intention that they will eventually become members, we don't know how, we don't know when.

Do you think that there's any possibility there's movement on that?

- Listen, Ukraine is getting closer to NATO every day.

They're becoming more interoperable with us.

There's a level of trust and synergies.

And I do not anticipate a firm commitment in terms of a date in Washington to be announced.

But I think Washington will be a very interesting bridge towards NATO membership.

Eventually, with NATO playing a bigger role in interoperability in the future of forces in Ukraine, in making sure that we held them transform in a way that will be fully compatible with us.

So what Secretary General Stoltenberg says, what all of us are saying, and also the key allies are saying, Jake Sullivan said this issue also when he visited with us 10 days ago, is that Ukraine will become a member of NATO.

As a Romanian, they will also become a member of the EU.

The obligation we have now is to continue to help them prevail in this war because, in the end, if they don't prevail, there's no NATO, there's no EU.

It's just a return to the sphere of influence of Russia, which is something I believe Ukrainians are fighting against, and also we are fighting against.

- Now when you say if they don't prevail, I haven't heard anyone credibly believe that the Ukrainians are going to be able to militarily get their land back.

And when I say their land, I guess I should be saying all of their land.

But at a minimum, at an absolute minimum, the territorial boundaries that existed before the Russian invasion on February 24th.

Do we have to increasingly understand that as a reality?

- Listen, wars are unpredictable by definition, and it's very difficult to make a forecast, a foresight, of where these things would go.

But I know one thing, that Ukrainians, without help, recuperated 50% of the territory occupied by Russia in initial stages of the war.

So there is room for them to do even better.

And this depends on their own capacity to continue to mobilize, the public opinion, and, of course, to have enough forces, for us to do better in helping them.

So I would say the one thing, if they continue to have the same determination and bravery to fight, and I don't see any change in that, and if we continue to help them at levels that are appropriate to the intensity of the war, they have all the chances in the world to do even better on the battlefield.

- Now, unfortunately, that big piece of that relies on the consistent military, economic, and, therefore, political support coming from the United States, which has done the lion's share of the lifting so far.

And, of course, that has become a very significant bone of contention for the Biden administration inside the House of Representatives.

It increasingly looks like a much bigger challenge to be able to continue to get that funding.

And even if it happens, probably at lower levels, and maybe this the last time around, what is that doing?

That process has been going on for a few months now.

How is that affecting NATO allies?

How is that affecting the Ukrainians?

- Let me put a little bit support for Ukrainian perspective because we speak here of military support and US has the lion's share because of the size of the country and industrial and military might of the US.

But if you put all the support for Ukraine in the last two years, military, economic, macroeconomic, humanitarian, name it, European allies, or non-US allies of America, did more in terms of footing the bill.

So more than 50% of the support for Ukraine comes from non-allies.

I'm also seeing, and Secretary Jens Stoltenberg released a public report about defense spending in Europe.

There was a big conversation in the US, for good reasons, that you just cannot expect you, the American taxpayer, to foot the bill for European security.

Europeans have to do better, and we are doing better.

The number that we have now is far from being perfect.

Now 18, France is 2%, will be 19 allies today.

But if you put on aggregate what the non-US allies in NATO are doing, we are 2% on aggregate because Poland is 4.5, because Romania is 2.5, because the Baltics.

So I think there is a political conversation in the US.

But as someone who knows America well, I think that there is beyond this very partisan period of election, that's democracies.

I think there is a realization, in the end, that Ukraine is more than Ukraine, and Ukraine is more than European security, that Ukraine is an indicator of the willingness and the capacity of the West to be able to cope with challenges coming from China or anywhere else.

And if you see, also, from an American perspective, which is a global superpower, that you see Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran ganging up, you start seeing a world that you need your allies.

And I think, in the end, this alliance, 75 years in the next few weeks, will be as indispensable to America and to all of us like it has been since the inception three quarters of a century back.

- In the last few weeks, we've seen much more talk about the Russians increasing their troop levels on the Estonian border, for example.

Is this an environment where NATO governments, NATO allies, are thinking more seriously that they could be in a direct, not a proxy fight, not a war in Ukraine, but in a direct war with Russia?

- We are undergoing, as we speak in NATO, the most important transformation of our deterrence and defense, military planning, command and control force structure, multi-domain operation, exercising steadfast defender is still going on.

- [Ian] That's the largest exercise- - [Mircea] Since 1988.

- [Ian] Since '88, yeah.

- So the business of NATO, and this is something we know, and Russia knows, that the best deterrence is strong defense.

In a way, this discussion about Russia moving, they don't have many troops to move, to be honest, because most of the troops are boggled down in Ukraine.

- Yeah, the Finland border doesn't look very busy at all.

- This is my point.

They're now harvesting the seeds of their own strategic era in attacking Ukraine.

They had Finland and Sweden, two very staunch neutral countries.

Sweden has been neutral since 1812.

1812.

Finland, more recently.

So now what we have, we have a NATO, and Russia has to deal with the NATO that is having an Eastern flank from the Barents Sea, from the North Sea to the Baltic, to the Black, and to the Mediterranean seas.

And we are doing our part.

So we don't see from Russia the capacity, and to be honest, not even the intent today, to go against a NATO ally.

But we also see Russia being exceptionally unpredictable, very dangerous.

And I think that we could suspect, for the next period, for them to focus on Ukraine, and also really unleashing against all of us, all the instruments of hybrid warfare, cyber attacks, disinformation.

So I would say that we are not seeing an imminent risk against us.

The more we do, we defense.

And the more our plans become executable, the least chances for Russia to dare to do something against us.

But Russia is unpredictable, and we have this self-perpetuation of leadership at the top.

There is also a risk that staying for too long in power, you start seeing the world with lenses that are not realistic anymore.

And this is something that we do well.

We don't see an immediate threat to our alliance.

And the more we do things together, the slower the chance.

Can we rid it out totally?

No.

Russia remains aggressive, unpredictable, and this kind of very personalized leadership at the top can always create surprises.

So we had better be prepared.

- Mr. Geoana, thanks for joining us on "GZERO World."

- Yeah, Ian Bremmer, thank you and your wonderful team.

[gentle music] - In the 60 years since it was founded, the Munich Security Conference has hosted Heads of State, diplomats, experts, and journalists from around the world for important and very often very intense conversations about the world's biggest security threats.

An exhibit in Munich honors the conference's diamond anniversary and the many memorable moments in its history.

Here's GZERO's Tony Maciulis.

[upbeat music] [upbeat music continues] - Benedikt Franke.

First of all, congratulations on the 60th anniversary, the conference that's about to get underway, and I learned a German word this week, Zeitenwende, the turning point.

It seems to me that the history of the conference is about turning points, right?

- It has been.

I mean, we've had so many turning points over the last 60 years.

Just think of the end of the Cold War.

Think of the first military missions of Germany.

When we talk about the wars in former Yugoslavia, talk about 9/11.

There have been more turning points than non-turning points in the last 60 years.

- Henry Kissinger, obviously a famous, dare I say, infamous figure in foreign policy globally, died recently, of course, at the age of 100.

He was a founding member of this conference, wasn't he?

- So he and Ewald von Kleist, you can see on the picture, they came up with the idea together.

He was a professor at Harvard at the time.

He joined every single conference until the last two.

So he's been to well over 50 Munich Security Conferences.

[upbeat music] So this was my very first Munich Security Conference.

The moment was actually quite amazing because that is the speech where Putin outlined many of the things that he has done since 2007.

[Vladimir speaking Russian] - He has been very open about his intention.

He's been very open about how he felt disenfranchised, pushed into a corner, not taken seriously.

And for us at the Munich Security Conference, and I think for historians around the world, the question must be why did we not hear it?

Why didn't we see what he meant?

Did we not want to see it?

- [Tony] Then you see this iconic moment that looks so hopeful.

Hillary Clinton and Sergey Lavrov together in what was meant to be a reset.

- It felt like a reset.

I was in the room and it felt amazing.

They had a closed door meeting just before, apparently some hard questions were asked, some hard answers were given, but both of them seemed convinced that they could resolve their differences.

Two and a half years later, Russia invaded Crimea.

- One of the more dramatic moments, 2018, this one involved a prop.

Bibi Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, showed up with a piece of this.

What is this?

- So this is part of, what they say, is an Iranian drone that was shot down just before the conference.

We had a special podium built for him in which he could hide this piece.

And it was particularly dramatic because the Iranian foreign minister was sitting in the second row right in front of him.

- That said, Benedikt, I got to stop you 'cause there's an elephant in the room.

And here it is, an actual elephant right in the middle of the room here at America House.

What is the meaning of this?

- It has become a metaphor for things that are actually quite easy to see, but quite often don't make it into discussions for fear of escalation, for fear of making things worse, for fear of embarrassment.

We are all about the elephant in the room.

We want to make sure that it is at the core of every single debate that we have.

- Benedikt, is the elephant in the room in 2024 Donald Trump?

- I think it's one of a couple of elephants.

It seems to be a herd by now.

[Tony chuckles] We obviously have the situation in Ukraine.

We obviously have the situation in Gaza.

We obviously have Donald Trump, but we have a lot of other elephants and we try to address them all.

- Benedikt Franke, thank you so much.

- Thank you for having me.

[gentle music] - That's our show this week.

Come back next week and if you like what you see or just want me out of Munich.

You can get that done if you check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[gentle music] [lively music] [lively music continues] [lively music continues] [lively music continues] [gentle music] - [Narrator 1] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator 2] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform, addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Narrator 1] And by Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at cox.career/news.

Additional funding provided by Jerry and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and... [gentle music] [gentle music]