♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason Perry: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week we have Maura Carabello, president of the Exoro Group; Doug Wilks, executive editor of the Deseret News; and Daniel Woodruff, reporter with KUTV2 News.

So glad to have you on this evening.

Sometimes you have interesting political stories which have like the story by itself but connections to so many others and some ramifications going through, and some of that we're gonna talk about tonight all the way into the next election cycle.

And Maura, I want to start with you about some big news this week.

Former President Donald Trump indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on Thursday of this week.

This is the first time this has happened to a president of the United States.

Talk about the implications of this indictment.

Maura Carabello: Historic, right?

And we'll continue to talk about this, because there'll be quite a bit of theater around the process of it happening.

What I'm struck in watching, though, is Donald Trump has successfully made a career out of martyrdom and victimhood actually.

And it's been a powerful motivator.

I suspect this will, you know, really inflame and solidify his base again.

One of the things I am watching, though, is the consequence of his defense about the system has done this to me has a systemic effect of us starting to chip away at the integrity and sort of the trust that we have in institutions.

And I think that that's going to be a common refrain for him as we now have the judicial system handle this.

So one of the things I'm thoughtfully looking at is, is he going to use rhetoric to chip away at the judicial system?

And what are the long-term consequences to our citizens about losing faith in these systems?

Jason: Doug, talk about--there are two really great points there, but one is--the first one is about how this motivates certain parties in the political spectrum.

What does this do for Conservatives, Trump supporters, and maybe what does it do to the other side as well?

Doug Wilks: Look, there's a lot of people who are uncomfortable with this, Conservatives and Progressives alike.

When Mar-a-Lago happened and they searched Mar-a-Lago, he got a bump, so his base thought, well, how could you treat him that way?

Department of Justice has a policy to not, you know, indict or do something to a sitting president and then people have-- presidents have gotten in trouble after office.

And of course, we know certainly Richard Nixon was pardoned by Gerald Ford.

In this case, it's a local jurisdiction bringing forth a matter, you know, a payment to a porn stars with, you know--we don't know--the indictment is not unsealed yet, but are people going, well, is that really worth changing history in this case?

On one side you say no one's above the law, on the other side it says, yeah, but are you taking all these resources to go after someone for whatever you can?

There's also some worry that there's, you know, was Trump involved in the election in Atlanta trying to monkey in that space.

So if you have these local jurisdictions bringing forth charges, does that open the floodgates, and does it pose a threat into the future?

So there's a lot of things at play.

It's not quite as simple as if you break the law, you need to pay the price, because we know there's a lot of layers to this politically certainly.

Jason: Totally, sure.

Daniel, you've interviewed a lot of people and following stories.

How is this being received?

Who are you getting a sense for the--in the interests of the public in it but also how it might be mobilizing certain people to get engaged maybe that weren't or just frustrated with the process?

Daniel: Well, I'm gonna be watching certainly as a reporter how this impacts the race going forward.

But I think the interesting thing to talk about is how Republicans in Utah are responding to this, and it's largely very quiet.

And I think the big reason for that is because Republicans, as we've reported, recognize that Donald Trump controls a notable portion of the Republican base, but here in Utah a lot of Republicans have expressed their desire to not see Donald Trump become president again.

They want Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, and I say they broadly.

There are certainly others that disagree with that, but I think it's interesting that you see this sort of position they're in.

We can't say too much about it.

We can't say too little about it.

We kind of have to straddle this middle to both not inflame Republicans on our side--or on Trump's side--as well as those that may support another candidate.

Maura: It's a notable juxtaposition to the national.

I mean, you saw the speaker come out very strongly sort of in defense.

So it's a notable distinction among Utah Republicans.

Jason: Talk about this for a second, Doug, because if you look through the press, you look through the statements, very few.

In fact, one of the few that I could find was Senator Mike Lee, and this was it about this indictment.

He said this is not a good day for America.

That's about as much as we've seen from any elected official in the state of Utah.

Doug: Yeah, well, there's--I mean, I don't know if Donald Trump is that upset about this?

The front page of the New York Times today is a three-column photo of Donald Trump, it's talking about the indictment, but this is--nothing has stuck to him all through his presidency, before his presidency.

So much media about his taxes and everything.

This puts him squarely in the limelight.

I mentioned earlier that the Marshals office, the Secret Service, everyone's meeting today to plan for the event.

So he's going to be indicted next week.

The world's attention is going to be there.

Now, that's not a good look.

No one needs to be on a perp walk, right?

But nevertheless, the focus of the nation is on Donald Trump.

And if he can make the case I'm being persecuted, this is a witch hunt, this is obviously unfair, this is why you need to return me to the White House, then it might not be the worst thing in the world for him.

Maura: He's made a career out of being the exception to the rule.

I mean, any other of the dozens of steps and sort of outside of the norm actions would have traditionally squashed any political career, but he has been an exception to the rule.

Jason: Maura, I wanna bring up one interesting issue that's connected to this.

It's what happened in Emery County this week, because it has a connection to what we were just talking about where the support is for former President Trump.

But the Republican Party in Emery County had a resolution this week to censor Senator Romney, to censor him for aiding and comforting the Democratic Party.

This failed there, it was a vote of 34 to 41 how it failed, but the fact that it existed may play into this narrative we've just been talking about.

Maura: Not only did it exist, but as you said, aiding and abetting, I mean, that's language associated sort of with enemies of war.

So this is a highly-politicized issue about who is going to represent the leadership of the Republican Party.

And as we move into the convention season, I think sort of the challenge for the Republicans or the Republican Party itself, the--activists and where they're going to go-- I have to say I was a little surprised.

I was disappointed that they brought this, because it's superfluous, and it's mean-spirited in my mind, but I was surprised actually that it failed.

But going into the convention cycle, the Republicans have as much divisiveness going on within their party as they do as they attempt to take on the Republicans in a general election--I mean, excuse me, the Democrats.

Doug: No, I think it's really interesting, Daniel and I try not to give our opinions too much as journalists, but I will give this, I think it's nonsense.

You have a county of how many, 9,000, 10,000 people?

A third are Democrats.

So you have this small, small group, and the motion failed.

We did a story at the Deseret News, Sam Benson, one of our writers, and we called and talked to all the county chairs.

We talked to 22 out of 29.

That's who got responses.

And we asked them, you know, are they supporting Donald Trump?

Are they supporting DeSantis or what?

Fifteen want DeSantis, the others said they're looking at Trump but they'd rather have someone else.

So DeSantis has gained momentum.

You know, how many legislators signed the letter immediately after DeSantis was going?

Jason: Eighty six.

Doug: Eighty six, so immediately the people in the party started drawing the line for DeSantis, and now he's coming to the convention.

So is this Trump country, DeSantis country, or something else?

Jason: Uh-huh, Daniel, let's talk about that for just a moment.

You brought up the DeSantis factor, where some Utahns are, the ones you're talking to at least.

And as Doug just mentioned, Governor Ron DeSantis is going to headline the Utah GOP convention in April.

That's a big get for the Republican party is what they're saying publicly, but it's interesting to say where Utahns are on this.

Eighty six elected officials said that they would support DeSantis, and here's our polling that we did with the Deseret news.

This is going back to just in November, so we can monitor what happens over time.

When we asked Utahns, 24% of Utahns said they would support Ron DeSantis.

Uh The next biggest number was don't know, 21%; 16% Liz Cheney; 15% Donald Trump.

As you're following this story and the people you're talking to, is that continuing to resonate, or is traction increasing in who you're talking to?

Daniel: I think it sounds about right from what we hear.

Interesting to me that I'm sure president--former President Trump is not happy that Liz Cheney is polling him by 1% here, but I think the 21% don't know, is interesting too.

I expect that as we get further into this race, I think you'll see a lot more coalescing, kind of like what we saw in 2016 around that one candidate, which presumably would be Ron DeSantis.

Who knows, though?

I think it will be interesting to watch as Republicans kind of make their stake in the ground.

And I think it just shows, too, in the polling that as in 2016, Republicans do not run to Donald Trump.

They do not run to embrace him.

And it will be fascinating to see ultimately how it shakes out on the national stage.

Can Ron DeSantis pose a truly viable challenge to President Trump?

Or is it going to fizzle as other Republicans have against President Trump and really his Teflon nature of things sliding right off of him?

Maura: But to stay on the polling, I'm surprised that the don't know is that low, actually.

At this point, traditionally one would proffer that we should be more open to even hearing a campaign.

We don't know yet who the slate is going to be.

Mike Pence has made a run.

He doesn't seem to be getting much traction, but it is interesting that we're staying so people partisan year in and year out now and that--I would expect that the 21 would actually be higher, people saying I have some preferences, but I don't know.

The reason it makes it interesting for me is that when voters lock into an opinion, I think DeSantis is the most vulnerable to this, so now I've locked in, and am I going to defend him now?

Instead of looking at the playing field and saying I'm still evaluating, I've started choosing people already.

It makes for interesting politics if you're running a campaign.

And everything starts so early now, so, so, so early.

Doug: We talked about political exhaustion, too, right?

It's like people kind of go, you know, I don't know, I'll watch it, It's too early.

The most interesting for me is that some of Donald Trump's most ardent supporters in Utah like Dawn Pay have said, you know, enough.

You know, I like what he did here, I like that--there are Supreme Court justices, but I just can't deal with the rhetoric anymore.

Jason: Maura, which before we leave this, you've advised so many campaigns, and you're a political strategist too.

As you look at that list--and the list is going to change a bit--some have announced, some haven't, what do you--what is your kind of your takeaway really of this fact that Utahns--at least a lot of them--seem to say even though it hasn't announced yet, we'd pick this person over another one.

Should we take anything from that?

Is it the actual Ron DeSantis support, or is it the lack of support for President Trump?

Maura: Yeah, I mean, I think what--I think the big opportunity is, is to cut through with true leadership.

Right now you're still in the same old arguments the same way.

I mean, it's what's going to hurt Trump the most is that he can't seem to look forward, he wants to look backwards.

Will someone distinguish themselves by having a clear forward-leaning agenda, in much the same way--if you want to old-school it--in much the same way that Reagan brought to the table.

He brought a new agenda said differently--or sort of a traditional Republican agenda said differently.

We haven't seen any cut through.

Um, DeSantis, interestingly enough was able to do this in his Florida governor's campaign.

Can he bring that same level of clarity?

I don't know that the Republicans particularly are energized yet about anyone.

I don't know that they're hearing anything yet.

I think there's still opportunity for someone to cut through.

This makes for volatile elections, and it also makes the fundamentals more important.

Those who have good campaigns will do better.

Doug: He won Florida big.

I mean, he--I mean, that caught the attention of everyone, and what we haven't talked about is Joe Biden, and we haven't talked about the Democratic Party.

As people look at, well, how is he sauntering?

Is he okay?

Can he walk?

And that becomes part of that conversation.

His policies against Republicans, it is gonna be great political--I don't like political theater, but I guess I'm saying.

It's gonna be an interesting race, and in the consequences every time the--everyone says this is the most important election, but the consequences are real, right?

I guess we can say that.

Jason: I wanted to transition to one of the campaign issues, Daniel, because we've been doing some polling, Hinckley Institute and the Deseret News, about student loan forgiveness.

I think we need to talk about this, because it sort of a campaign issue, but it's really hot in the press right now as well.

We have Senator Romney and Senator Lee have both come out this week saying that they would vote to suspend President Biden's support of the student loan forgiveness program.

I just want to give you these numbers very quickly, because it's interesting to me, because we asked the question about where Utahns were on this initiative.

And interestingly enough, 55% of Utahns said that they disapprove of forgiving these student loans.

What does this represent in the public and where Utahns are on this issue?

Daniel: Well, we've certainly talked to Utahns who--and the argument has been out there since the very beginning of those who oppose it saying, why am I going to be put on the hook for somebody else's decision to take out loans?

And that's kind of the overarching argument.

It's interesting, though, I'll say it depends on who you talk to.

I've been up to the University of Utah and talked to students, and I couldn't really find any that didn't want that, right?

And so I think generationally you're going to see a difference, right?

Between the ones that may not be burdened with such heavy loans versus the ones that are or will be.

And they're saying wait a second, I was planning on this.

When President Biden announced this, I rejoiced, I celebrated.

It will be fascinating to see how that plays out among different age groups, because that's really where the distinction lies, I think, in how they feel about it, whether they have to pay 'em back or don't.

Jason: Doug, in our--in this same poll we asked about the Supreme Court and where Utahns were on the constitutional power of President Biden to forgive student loans.

I thought these numbers were interesting, 49% of Utahns said I don't support loan forgiveness.

That's sort of consistent with where they've been.

But the next highest number was 30% said Congress should pass a law and not the president if this is what's going to happen.

Doug: Well, I think there is a hunger for Congress to take charge and pass the laws and do the job that they're supposed to do.

And I think there's been frustration over 10 years because from President Obama to Donald Trump to now, a lot of governing has been by executive order, and when you have executive order, then the executive order gets changed, and because there hasn't been any kind of ability to work across the aisle on some of these issues, they do a lot together that we never write about, right?

But I think they want the legislature to take a role in this.

I mean, that kind of a poll, you know, you're asking me or someone else to weigh the constitutional ability of the president to do this.

They don't know that.

My issue is if it's inherently unfair, why don't you help--why don't you help people with credit card debt who maybe have had a predatory practice?

They have a credit card, they can't get out from under it.

They have to make a minimum payment.

University of Utah is a top-tier university.

If you're a student, of course you wanna launch any way you can.

So it doesn't surprise me that a student would want that forgiveness, because of course you would want that, but if you're walking at the University of Utah, those kids are gonna pay back their loans, right?

You do a good job teaching those kids, they're smart.

So this is an issue that really probably goes to the Supreme Court and they'll decide the constitutionality of it.

Jason: Maura, is this a real campaign issue?

It sounds like we have--what we just heard is we got the students maybe fairly supportive, maybe the older population that were not students not so supportive, at least in the state of Utah.

Is this a real campaign issue?

Is it gonna sway?

Maura: No, I mean, if you're a politician in Utah, it's a pretty easy campaign issue, actually, because you do some polling that shows the electorate's pretty coalesced.

So I don't think it's fraught with minefields.

What is the real underlying issue is what Doug said, which is we continue to see executive branches, regardless of whether they're Republican or Democrat.

You have a congress that is not addressing major points and major issues, not having that discussion, and so you see the executive branch usurping it, which I think is some of the softness in the should we forgive is more about the process and less about the money.

I do think it's fair for people to say, well, as Doug suggests or what I heard Doug suggest is that, you know, public money tax dollars should go to things that people value the most, and I think that's part of the discussion about who is the beneficiary of some of this funding.

Jason: Let's transition a bit.

Daniel, an interesting article this week in the AP, investigation from the Associated Press found that China--this is about China.

We have a lot of conversations in this state about China.

Their global influence campaign has been--this is the quote-- surprisingly robust and successful in Utah.

Talk about that article a little bit and how they represent Utah's connection.

Daniel: Yeah, some good reporting by the AP and my friend Sam Metz, who is one of the authors on that who's based here in Utah, and I think it's a very deep article.

There's no way I can go into all of what they covered in the short amount of time we have, but I'll just say this, to me it shed some light on why certain pieces of legislation in the Utah legislature may not have moved forward as they pertain to China.

There are so many bills that get introduced session by session, many of them die for various reasons, but I think what the AP did a good job in was shedding light on why certain ones took a while to pass or were held up one year and then moved forward the next because of some lawmakers potentially that were wanting to not see them move forward or things like that, and I'll just leave it at that really, that the thing that I took away from it was understanding a little bit more why the legislature may have done or not done certain things pertaining to China in the last couple of sessions.

Jason: Maura, some interesting connection points to the state of Utah.

We have had certain pieces of legislation, Representative Candice Pierucci, one of them has sponsored a few over the coming years--the past years-- one eliminating Confucius institutions of higher education, calling on state officials--this is what the bill said--to disclose when foreign governments pay for their travel.

It's interesting to see this conversation about China and this connection to the state of Utah get on the national stage.

Maura: It is, and you know, part of it is Utah--even though we're a small Western state--is and will continue to be sort of internationally focused, much due to the fact that many of us leave and serve, particularly missions for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

We have kind of a global approach to things.

And you've seen that in our economic development, and I think that that's smart and healthy.

The question is transparency.

Do we know why people are making the decision?

I do think there's lots of room here for more disclosure about official trips, who was paying for things, why they were paying for it, and I would suspect that you wouldn't find I hope partisanship in that and that we do maybe need to be a little more clear about the influence.

One of the things I loved about the AP story--and I agree with Daniel, you should go read it.

There's a ton to unpack there.

But one of the things that I did appreciate is this reporter went and talked to several elected officials and there was some before and after conversations there and saying, one, I think you have to acknowledge pre-pandemic versus post.

And also saying, well, we didn't quite realize when they were inviting us.

We were acting in earnest, we were talking about the supply chain.

Now we're all a little more sophisticated about embedded political messages that we maybe didn't understand.

And I do think you saw some discovery there from elected officials that I really appreciated that they were growing and learning with us.

Daniel: And former House Speaker Greg Hughes actually acknowledged in the article, I took a trip to China, that may not have been the best decision.

Maura: Right?

Doug: Well, I mean, I won't comment on the article, but China is looking to influence the world, okay?

There--I mean, there was a great China summit at Utah Valley University last year and they brought in experts, UN experts, John Huntsman Junior was there and talked--we talked to him at length.

China wants to go in and help governments where it can have influence.

So, for example, if you need infrastructure in an African country, does America have a system where we can help whether it's loan programs or what you can do so that they get a tie to the Western world.

China wants to fight that.

China wants to be the person to do that so there's an affinity for China in these growing countries.

So with supply chain issues, influence issues, we need clear foreign policy with China, our lawmakers have talked about that.

We see those risks, and it will continue to be a major, major topic going forward.

Jason: It's even bled into our discussion about social media.

We've seen a lot about talk about China's connection to this app, TikTok, which has been banned on government phones in the state of Utah, but I wanna get into social media even more generally because that connection is there.

And can we start with a question from a student?

Because we had a couple of pieces of legislation aimed at social media and its impact on kids in particular.

Let's take this question from one of our students.

Jaspar Ruegemer: Hi, my name is Jaspar Ruegemer.

I'm a Political Science major at the University of Utah.

How is Governor Cox expected to argue against the claims that SB152, which requires social media companies to verify the age of all Utah users, and HB311, which regulates social media platforms to ensure they are not strategically designed to be addictive to minors, are a violation of the first amendment?

Jason: 'Kay, Doug, let's start.

Doug: It's a significant question.

I think the real issue is Governor Cox has moved forward to try and protect youth and children, and he's been pretty strong in what he has said.

So, look, bring on the challenge, but we have to do something, and Utah is a leader in that space.

It has--Aimee Winder Newton is-- what did we say the name was?

A family--a commission on family.

They're working very hard to try and figure out how we protect our children.

We know the statistics on suicide, on anxiety, and they're moving forward to do that.

The burden should be on the companies to protect children, privacy and those things.

So if it's challenged, it's challenged, but I admire the fact that the state is moving forward to try and do something.

Jason: Maura, I want to talk about this challenge for a second, because our elected officials in the state of Utah are certainly saying whatever the challenges are, we're gonna take it.

But I wanna cue up a clip from the governor, Governor Cox, that Doug was just referencing here this week about whether or not the challenges are going to come and whether or not they're worried about it.

Let's watch this video.

Spencer Cox: And so there's no doubt there's going to be legal challenges.

The same type of legal challenges that we saw with big tobacco, the same type of legal challenges that we saw with big pharma and opioids, and so I'm not gonna back down from a potential legal challenge when these companies are killing our kids, and so we're ready and willing to move forward with those legal challenges.

Maura: So I think the governor, actually, is who answers the student's question really well, in which he says this is a test balloon.

We know that this is going to have legal challenges, and we accept those and we're prepared for those.

And I think he points out that this is in fact somewhat of a message bill, saying I don't mind that the state of Utah will be the ones paying to sort of float and test some of the legal measures in this law.

I do know that they put some effort into the drafting of these laws, which brings up the efficacy of it.

And I've been on quite a journey with this.

I've not landed.

I actually think that what's important is that we all stipulate the goal of keeping kids healthy mentally and physically is something everyone shares.

So I don't ascribe any negativity to what anyone's doing, but I've become a little suspect that there might be harm actually in proffering a bill such as this.

One is it is in fact the resources that is going to take to litigate something like this.

And I think those resources might be coming from other programs that could support kids right away.

But the one thing I fear the most, and this came from-- I started thinking about this.

I heard Peggy Noonan say we're not sort of focusing on the right things.

And I believe that what I'm worried about with this bill is it gives us all a means to say, oh good, the villain in this is social media, and they are harming our kids.

And in fact, social media is in my mind the symptom, not the disease, and we continue as Americans to look for external sources and not looking at our culture and saying, you know, I have to take responsibility.

Now, do I get to say, oh, social media is harming my kids, they need to be held accountable?

I think it's time for Americans to turn--and Utahns--to turn a little more inward and say, no, they're a contributor, social media is a contributor, certainly the leading cause of death in Utahns is gun violence.

Guns are contributors, and why are we not turning inward and saying what as I as a parent?

What as I a community?

And those are harder discussions, because self-analysis is harder, and I feel like this encourages a Band-Aid approach and doesn't actually speak to the real problems.

Doug: Can I just say, you can't do everything, so do something.

Maura: So start with the leading indicators, don't start with soft science.

Jason: This is gonna have to be where we end it today, sadly.

We'll follow some polling over the next couple of weeks from the Deseret News on this very issue.

Thank you for being with us, great conversation.

And thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

This show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next week.

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