GEOFF BENNETT: And we are, of course, watching this historic verdict against the backdrop of the current presidential election.

Joining us now are our politics team.

That's Lisa Desjardins, who covers the Trump campaign, and Laura Barron-Lopez, who covers the White House and the Biden campaign.

AMNA NAWAZ: Great to see you both.

Thank you for being here.

Lisa, kick us off here.

We heard President Trump's immediate reaction earlier in the show.

You have been talking to your Republican sources.

What are you hearing?

LISA DESJARDINS: Well, the Trump campaign and Republicans are using a single word over and over again right now.

They're saying shameful.

I'm going to point to the statement by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who is the top elected Republican in the United States right now.

He wrote: "Today is a shameful day in American history.

This was a purely political exercise, not a legal one.

The weaponization," as he calls it, "of our justice system has been a hallmark of the Biden administration."

So, obviously, they have the first president ever convicted of felonies.

They're going to say this was wrong and they're trying to put the blame back on the Biden administration.

But when you go a little deeper and talk to other Republicans, some who opposed former President Trump, like Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas, I spoke to him a short time -- while -- a while ago.

And he said, no, this speaks to confidence in the justice system.

He told me that this is a very serious moment and he felt like this was a very serious decision.

He said he's not sure if this will make a difference in the campaign.

It is, however, potentially making a difference in the dollars for the Trump campaign.

We have already seen just in the last hour since the verdict was announced the WinRed site that Republicans use for fund raising crashed because of interest.

And a source tells me that, just in the time it crashed, they believe they would have raised half-a-million to a million dollars.

GEOFF BENNETT: So, Laura, how is the Biden campaign reacting to this?

One imagines they had a plan for this potential outcome.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: So, first, I want to address how the White House is reacting.

What the White House is essentially saying that, my sources there, that President Biden is not expected to address this verdict today in any type of official form.

That could change in the coming days, as -- if he gets questions from reporters that are with him as he travels.

And White House Counsel's Office spokesperson Ian Sams said that, essentially, the White House respects the rule of law and we have no additional comment.

But a Biden campaign aide that I spoke to said that they never expected that any result in this would ultimately help or hurt Trump.

Now, when it comes to the official statement that the Biden campaign put out, they said that: "In New York today we saw that no one is above the law.

There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office, at the ballot box.

Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president."

So, again, they're saying right there that they think that they're going to persuade swing voters based on issues much more than on this verdict.

AMNA NAWAZ: And, Lisa, you have been reporting on the potential impact, right, as this trial coverage unfolds.

AMNA NAWAZ: This is against the backdrop of a major presidential election.

Some of the polling has shown that some of the -- most of the support for Mr. Trump is baked in.

But do we have any idea what this guilty verdict means for his support?

LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

Up until now, there's been real divide over the bringing of these charges and whether politics was involved or not.

And I know we have discussed that on this program.

But as far as what they will do, I want to point back to our polling.

We asked American voters, registered voters, if the former president was found guilty, would they be more likely or not to vote for him?

And among all registered voters, just 15 percent said they would be more likely, but the same amount said, about, 17 percent, said less likely.

Two-thirds of those said that it would make no difference.

Let's look at Republicans, though, in that same survey.

If Donald Trump is found guilty, 25 percent of Republicans said it would make them more likely to vote for him, 10 percent less likely.

These are folks who identify as Republicans.

And what's happening there when you talk to Republican sources is, this is Republicans who believe that this was a setup, a political event, and that's why they say it would make them more likely to vote for him.

What does it mean to vulnerable Republicans, especially?

I talked to Dave Schweikert, this congressman from Arizona in a toss-up critical seat that could control the direction of the House.

He said he doesn't think there will be a difference, mainly, from voters.

He thinks that voters are locked in right now, that Trump has brought support downballot, but he doesn't think that's changing.

There is some question from some deeper Republican sources I talk to about the folks that Laura has done great reporting on, the Haley voters, those unhappy Republicans, independents, who may secretly be Republicans, but aren't comfortable saying they're Republicans anymore.

This is something Republicans will watch, is this a kind of verdict that will affect those voters, take them away from Trump or bring them to Biden?

GEOFF BENNETT: And picking up on your point, Lisa, Laura, how is the Biden campaign -- how does this affect their outreach to those moderate Republicans and those voters who supported Nikki Haley, who said they will never support Donald Trump under any circumstances?

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: The Biden campaign is actively courting those Nikki Haley voters, independents that lean to the right, Republican moderates.

And one source close to the campaign told me that they think that this would have an impact at the margins and this election is going to happen at the margins, that, ultimately, that this creates a new barrier for those moderate Republicans to vote for Donald Trump.

Are they going to be comfortable voting for now a convicted felon?

But I have some new reporting from outreach by the Biden campaign, specifically on this voter group.

The Biden campaign held a call last night with roughly a dozen or so former Republican lawmakers, and specifically saying that they needed their help with outreach to these voters that they think are true persuasion voters.

And these Republican lawmakers told, former Republican lawmakers told them on the call to really enlist them and use them.

And they agreed that they were going to create essentially working groups where they were going to -- some of these Republican lawmakers were going to be tasked with trying to get bigger-name Republican endorsements for the Biden campaign.

Some were going to be tasked as key surrogates for the Biden campaign.

Some were going to be working on trying to get local state Republicans to swing over to Biden.

So this is -- just goes to show you that the Biden campaign, with the help of former Republican lawmakers, is really trying to reach out to these moderate Republicans.

And they think that the three areas that they could potentially do this on aggressively are threats to democracy and extremism -- this verdict feeds into that extremism -- reproductive rights, as well as the economy.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, Lisa, look ahead for us now and what we see ahead in the campaign.

Is this a message that you see former President Trump leaning into?

Because it could potentially motivate his base more?

LISA DESJARDINS: Absolutely, and not just him.

Let's talk about people like Elise Stefanik, the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, her job to try and keep the majority there.

She came out with a statement quickly.

Her job is also to raise money.

And we know that Republicans, RNC, has had trouble keeping pace with the Democratic Party.

This is something that we have already seen as a fund-raising boon to them.

And you know that former President Trump does well when it's us against the world, when he paints it as though all of his supporters are being attacked by someone.

This is an example of where you should expect him to say that even more.

GEOFF BENNETT: Lisa Desjardins and Laura Barron-Lopez, our great thanks to you both for that incredible reporting.

LAURA BARRON-LOPEZ: Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, let's return now to William Brangham in New York, who has been inside the courtroom today on this historic day.

William, how does all of this fit into the broader legal landscape that the former president now faces?

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Well, as you say, Amna, this is the first trial of his to go to actual - - to trial and to be heard in front of a jury.

There are, as we have reported, three other major cases that Donald Trump is facing.

There is the Georgia case, the Fulton County case that alleges election interference with state officials in the 2020 election, Trump and many other co-defendants in that case.

But that trial has no date set.

The lead prosecutor on that, the DA there, Fani Willis, has a court that is looking into whether or not she should be removed from that case.

So there's no progress on that.

The second case is, of course, the January 6 case, major federal case being brought against Donald Trump for his role in the January 6, 2020, election, insurrection, trying to overturn that election.

That case, we know, is also going nowhere.

It is waiting on the ruling from the Supreme Court as to whether or not Donald Trump has immunity for any actions that he took.

The third case is the classified documents case down in Florida that is also a federal case.

The judge in that case has postponed that indefinitely, and it is on a fast track to nowhere.

So it is very likely that what has just transpired here will be the only case that Donald Trump faces a jury before the election.

And many people have argued it's inappropriate that voters will go to the polls not knowing whether or not the leading candidate is actually guilty on any of these major cases that he is charged with.

We heard at the top of the program that Donald Trump said that the real verdict will be November 5.

And that is, in one way, incredibly true, because, if he is reelected, two of those three cases will go away, because he is likely to appoint an attorney general who will take over the Department of Justice and eliminate those cases or dismiss them entirely.

That's the January 6 case and the classified documents case in Florida.

Both of those would likely go away if Trump is president.

Georgia, we're not so sure about, so a still very uncertain future legally for Donald Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: That is William Brangham reporting for us from New York.

William, thank you.