panel of political analysts.

That's Amy Walter# of The Cook Political Report With A Democratic strategist Faiz Shakir, who was on the# campaign.

He was the campaign manager, in fact,## for Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign.# And Republican strategist Kevin Madden,## who advised Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

Thank you all for being here.

Amy, the Haley campaign is# tr AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right.

AMY WALTER: So the expectations have been sort of# shifting over these la the polls suggest that this is# going to be a very big night for## Donald Trump.

He's up an average# of about 14 points in the state.

Now, the polling has been wrong in New Hampshire# before.

For those of us who around in 2008,## the polls going into that Democratic Party# suggested that Barack Obama was going to## win by eight to 10 points.

Obviously,# he didn't.

Hillary Clinton won that## primary.

What makes the state so unique is# that, yes, independent voters can show And this is what she's counting on, is a surge of# voters who maybe they do traditionally -- they're## registered as independents, but they traditionally# vote for Democrats, and maybe would never think## to turn out and vote for a Republican,# but they like what Nikki Haley is doing.

But what would that tell us about her future# going forward?

She argues in that campaign memo## that Lisa outlined, her campaign argues that there# are independent voters all over the country.

But## these are a very different type of independent# voters.

And, in fact, the group of voters I'm## going to be looking at are a group of voters who# describe themselves as somewhat conservative.

They are the voters that really tend to determine# who the winner of these elections are.

And,## right now, we don't know where they're going,# but they are probably a better predictor than## whether or not you can open your primary to# folks who identify or register as independent.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, Kevin, pick up where Amy# left off there.

If Haley doesn't win tonight,## and we know there's been some expectation-setting,## Chris Sununu even saying, second# place is fine.

But w Does she continue with her campaign,# and for what purpose?

I mean, does she## just amass delegates in case the Trump# campaign doesn't continue at some point?

KEVIN MADDEN, Republican Strategist:# Well, delegates are still hard to come by,## and she really has to show mo It's one thing to say, hey, we feel# like all the expectation-settings with# memos, but, at the end of the day,## this campaign has to demonstrate that they --# that the one-on-one race that they have said## that they wanted is now crystallizing# the debate for Republican voters,## and that those voters are starting to# trend towards Nikki Haley into a real race.

So we're going to need to see something within --# if she doesn't win tonight, at leas the single digits, because after a double-digit# loss in Iowa, you have to show that the trend## line is working in your direction.

Now, whether# or not she can actually get to South Carolina,## like, I think after tonight, you will# still have the -- like we always say,## you don't really run out of reasons to# run for president.

You run out of money.

AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

I think she will continue on.

But, at some point, we really cl ose narrowing of the polls in order to# really provide that ac is going to bring her onto the bigger# delegate contests that come in March.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Faiz, meantime, Democrats# are providing some counterprogramming tonight.## President Biden, Vice President Harris,# and their spouses held their first joint# campaign event in Northern Virginia focused# on abortion rights, trying to draw attention## to what has been a political liability for# Republicans ever since Roe was overturned.

What do you make of that strategy?

FAIZ SHAKIR, Democratic Stra this issue alone.

I mean, I think# it's recently seven times since the Dobbs# decision.

It's won every single time.

You look at down-ballot races in Virginia,# all -- anywhere in this country, and it## has been a propellant of voters turning# out for Democrats.

So this is huge.

Now,## it also drives enthusiasm.

So it's# not only a supermajority issue,## winning Kansas and Kentucky and places# like that.

It's an enthusiasm driver.

And for Joe Biden, we know one of his# weaknesses of the campaign right now is## that enthusiasm.

This issue does it for him.# When he's at his best, President Biden is a## coalition manager.

He's a parliamentarian-style# president.

He's managing a coalition.

A big part## of that coalition wants abortion rights, and# they bring the enthusiasm to his campaign.

And so I think he knows and recognizes right# from the jump this is going to be giant for him.

GEOFF BENNETT: Is that the campaign's goal,## to make this m FAIZ SHAKIR: Well, in addition to that.

So, yes,## there's multiple thi And then you have got the democracy# threat with Trump.

Those two, I think, are obvious and clear, essentially on the# table already.

And then the question is,## now what do the small sliver people who haven't# yet made up their mind or moved back and forth,## very small numbers here, what moves them?

And I'm not sure that those two issues are# it.

So now I think you have got to m I think, a lot of economic-relat d issues to speak## to people who haven't already made# up their mind on Biden AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, bring us back to New Hampshire# now as we're going to start in soon.

And tell us where you are looking.

We# know some of those more de Manchester and Concord and Nashua, that's# where Haley has to do particularly well.

AMY WALTER: That's right.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

And I really se nse for just how big the pool of independent# voters versus voters who are Republican are.

We have seen polls that have it anywhere from 35# percent to 47 percent.

And, obviously, how well## Haley does in those polls is driven in part by how# well -- how big the independent voters are there.

And curious to see how people# think about Donald Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: Right.

yes, I'd be satisfied with him.

Many of them,## most of them thought that the election# of Joe Biden w They didn't think that the January 6 and# some of the legal challenges against Donald## Trump were going to be a problem for# him.

So I'm very curious to see just## the makeup of that electorate there.# But the other thing that's happening,## as we have been watching for these# last couple of days, the walls sort of## closing in around Nikki Haley, in that the# Trump campaign getting everybody on board.

We saw in Lisa's report the other candidates in## the Republican primary coming out and# endorsing him, now leaders in Congress,## including many from swing districts# coming out and endorsing Donald Trump.

AMNA NAWAZ: Yes.

AMY WALTER: Basically, the message being sent, you know what?

This thing's al GEOFF BENNETT: And, Kevin, we have a# long night ahead of us.

What are you## going to be watching for as the returns come in?

KEVIN MADDEN: Well, like Amy,## I'm going to be lo I mean, I think the thing, the interesting# thing about New Hampshire is our first glimpse into what could potentially be# Trump's bi which is a toxic profile with# those moderate swing voters.

And even Republican-leaning independents voting# for Nikki Haley could signal a greate for voters like that around the country.

And,# again, this is going to be a close election.## It's going to come down to a lot of suburban areas# and swing battlegr And if the president's still# struggling with those voters,## I think it says a lot about where the general# election battle -- batt AMNA NAWAZ: I can't believe we're# talking about the general already.

(LAUGHTER) (CROSSTALK) as quickly as some predicted could be, we# have a very long general election ahead.

Does that change the Biden campaign's# reelection strategy at all?

FAIZ SHAKIR: I mean, it has to.

I mean, so o has not been spending a ton of it, has# not been staffing up in a major way.## And what we know is that there are a few# battlegrounds that are going to determin the election.

And it's going to have to# be heavily organized in thos because the sliver of voters who haven't# yet made up their mind is so small.

And so if you're talking to everyone who is# going to know, because it would really go## county by county and find your 500 people# who haven't yet made up their Bi den versus Donald Trump, which I know is# hard to believe.

And those are the people.

And you're going to have to figure out --# getting into real person conversations with them, what are their preferences, what are their# attitudes, what are their beliefs.

My sense is,## a lot of these are working-class voters, people# without a college de a year.

They're living with the cost of living# concerns in their lives and their families.

And so you hit them with a sense of, what# has Joe Biden done?

What is he trying to## do?

Because I think a lot of his economic message# has not yet trickled down to a place where pe understand what it is he's been fighting for.

And# it can be done, but it needs to be invested in.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Amy, you# could make the point that,## looking ahead to the gener (LAUGHTER) AMY WALTER: As long as we're here.

GEOFF BENNETT: As long as we're formidable general election candidate# against Joe Biden than D AMY WALTER: Yes, that's# been her message throughout.

GEOFF BENNETT: Why don't Republ that he's the strongest candidate# that matched up against Biden.

He looks like the strongest one, stronger# than Nikki Haley does.

And this idea about## needing to win over swing voters, that's not# very sexy to primary voters.

We have always## talked about in politics one of the hardest# cells in a primary is to tell primary voters,## I'm the most electable candidate# in the fall.

I'm the person that's## going to win over people that don't# believe exactly what we believ Now, it worked in 2020 for Joe Biden, in part# because that election wasn't about Joe Biden,## even for Democrats.

It was about Donald# Trump.

That's not what the case is here.## This is still Donald Trump's party.

And those# voters want to see him get one more shot at it.

AMNA NAWAZ: Amy Walter, Faiz Shakir, Kevin Madden,## I know you're all sticking around.

We're# going to hav We will see you all back here shortly# for our additional live coverage right here on PBS or online.

And that# is beginning at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.