
Experts discuss obstacles to Saudi-Israeli normalization
Clip: 2/5/2024 | 9m 24sVideo has Closed Captions
Experts discuss obstacles to Palestinian statehood and Saudi-Israeli normalization
Saudi leaders say diplomatic normalization with Israel isn’t possible without steps toward a Palestinian state. The U.S. hopes a pause in fighting could lead to progress on reforming the Palestinian Authority, normalization and two states. Nick Schifrin discussed more with Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Khaled Elgindy of the Middle East Institute.
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Major corporate funding for the PBS News Hour is provided by BDO, BNSF, Consumer Cellular, American Cruise Lines, and Raymond James. Funding for the PBS NewsHour Weekend is provided by...

Experts discuss obstacles to Saudi-Israeli normalization
Clip: 2/5/2024 | 9m 24sVideo has Closed Captions
Saudi leaders say diplomatic normalization with Israel isn’t possible without steps toward a Palestinian state. The U.S. hopes a pause in fighting could lead to progress on reforming the Palestinian Authority, normalization and two states. Nick Schifrin discussed more with Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Khaled Elgindy of the Middle East Institute.
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorshipBut Sa quote -- "irrevocable steps" toward a Palestinian# state.
U.S. officials hope a pause in the and hostage deal could lead to progress on# larger issues, reconstructing Gaza, reforming the## Palestinian Authority, developing Gaza governance,# and finally normalization in two states.
Now we get two perspectives.
Aaron David# Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie## Endowment for International Peace and a longtime# State Department official in both Democra Republican administrations.
And Khaled Elgindy# is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute,## where he directs their Program on# Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian## Affairs.
He's participated in previous# Israeli-Palestinian negotiations Thanks very much, both of you.# Welcome back to the "NewsHour."
Khaled Elgindy, let me start with you.
Let's start with what's on the ta Hamas has refused any deal that doesn't say the# words permanent cease-fire.
This deal does not## have that.
Is it still possible, do you think, to# get a Hamas-Israel hostage-for-pause deal today?
KHALED ELGINDY, Middle East# Institute: I think it's possible.
I think what Hamas will look for short temporary pause would be treated as an effective# cease-fire.
So, if they can get those kinds of## assurances from the United States, in particular,# then I think Hamas could be persuaded to go along.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, this is a# longer pause, in the American nomenclature, than## we have had in the past.
Could that six-week-plus# pause become effectively a cease-fire?
AARON DAVID MILLER, Carnegie Endowment for# International Peace: Frankly, I think the Israelis## will be operating in Gaz And whatever commitments the Israeli make to# a permanent -- quote-unquote -- "cease-fire,"## I think all bets are off.
They're# determined, I think, to identify,## find, and eliminate key Hamas leaders# that were responsible for October 7.## So I think it's possible you may get# a break.
How long that break will be## and whether it can be turned into something# more permanent is another matter entirely.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Khaled Elgindy,# let us zoom all the way out.
The pot at the end of this rainbow, as# I said, what the Saudis are now calling irrevocable# steps toward a two-state solution.
Is that## possible with the Biden administration# as mediator and this Israeli government?
KHALED ELGINDY: I think it's certainly# possible that the parties, the Saudis,## the Israelis, the Americans, could strike# a formula that works for the three of them.
I'm not sure that it will be meaningful in# the end, but it might be enough to persuade## all sides to attach their names to it.# I think the problem isn't with getting## people to accept a state.
Even Donald# Trump had a plan for a Palestinian state,## at the end of the day, as devoid of# meaning and sovereignty as it was.
I think what would be far more useful# is if the United States, in particular,## were talking about laying out a clear# plan for ending Israel's occupation,## both in Gaza, but also in the West# Bank and Jerusalem.
If the plan were## focused on ending Israel's occupation,# then it would be much more meaningful.
But as it stands, sure, a statehood, a# Palestinian state, two-state solution,## these are throwaway lines that have# been agreed to and ignored in the past.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller,## should AARON DAVID MILLER: Well, any meaningful# commitment to Palestinian statehood by## an Israeli government that was serious about# negotiat that was serious as well is going to bring about,# must bring about the end of Israel's occupation.
I do agree with Khaled that I think such a# deal is possible.
I'm concerned about it.## I think we risk overpaying the Saudis in# bilateral coin.
A mutual defense treaty,## I don't think we have concluded one with any# country since the 1960 U.S.-Japan treaty was## revised.
Giving the Saudis access to American# nuclear technology without -- allowing them## to control the fuel cycle, that's a# huge blow to our proliferation policy.
And I also worry that, in the end, whatever# commitments the Israeli -- this Israeli governme makes is not going to lead to -- irrevocably# to a serious negotiation.
Palestinians have## to produce a partner.
Israelis need to be# serious as well.
Then we can start talking.## I don't think Israeli-Saudi normalization is the# key to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
NICK SCHIFRIN: That outside-to-in strategy has## been continued by the Biden Bu t pick up, Khaled Elgindy, on that point that# Aaron David Miller made ab partner.
Is there a Palestinian partner?
And# is there a -- quote, unquote -- "revitalized,"## to use Tony Blinken's word, revitalized# Palestinian Authority?
Is that possible?
KHALED ELGINDY: What's more# important than a revitalized## Palestinian Authority is to Wh ether it's the Palestinian Authority is# irrelevant.
What Palestinians need is a## national leadership, and that# speaks for all Palestinians,## both inside and outside the occupied territories.# That, leader.
He has been parochial.
He's# been ineffective.
He's been weak.
I think it is possible to imagine a different# Palestinian internal political configuration,## but it's something that Palestinians# have to do on their own.
But I would## add to that leadership equation the# United States.
The United States has## not been an effective broker.
It# has not managed this crisis well.
It has actually taken, I think, very# reckless decisions from the get-go,## giving Israel a green light with no# red lines of any sort.
And we are now## four months into this horror in Gaza, and they# have sort of painted themselves into a corner.
So we also need a credible American# leadership that understands and has## empathy for and the ability to connect# with people on both sides.
Right now,## the Biden administration has only managed to# show humanity and empathy for the Israeli side.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, is there a# version of the Biden administration policy that## would be less -- quote -- "reckless," less# painted into a cor AARON DAVID MILLER: It would be really,## really difficult.
This president clearly has an emotional# attachment to Israel.
He has a high r for the people of Israel, the idea of Israel,# the security of Israel, not so much, obviously,## for the current Israeli prime minister.
But# I think that lack of empathy is important.
As to whether the United States could be# a credible broker, we're facing probably## among the most consequential elections# in American history.
The real question,## I think, for the administration,# since governing is about choosing,## is whether, in this kind of an# election year, this administration## is prepared to be risk-ready when it comes to# Israeli-Palestinian peac The Israeli-Saudi piece is the easy part.# It's whether or not the United States can## be a credible mediator if, in fact --# and I don't think we're talking about## this happening any time soon -- if you ended# up with an Israeli-Palestinian negotiation.
Last time, Camp David, I was there.
Didn't# succeed.
We were facing gaps that were way,## way, way too large.
But we also didn't take charge## of the summit.
We need to be credible.# We need to apply assurances to both parties.
But we also are going# to have to apply plenty of vinegar, disincentives.
Nobody's ever going to plant a tree in your honor## if you make peace between Israelis# and NICK SCHIFRIN: Khaled Elgindy, quickly, though, is# there not an advantage to having an admi that is talking to the Palestinians, unlike the# Trump administration, and at least saying to the## region, this is where we're going, this is, as I# put it earlier, the pot at the end of the rainbow?
KHALED ELGINDY: Yes, if we're looking at things# in absolute minimalist terms, sure.
I mean,## that's the bare minimum required, is# the ability to talk to both sides.
But it's more important to go beyond# that and actually understand where the## two sides are coming from.
The United# States has always struggled with trying## to connect with, understand, have empathy# for Palestinians.
But this administration,## I think, has a much bigger blind spot than any# previous administration that I have ever seen.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, quickly,# would Benjamin Netanyahu be willing to jettison## his right-wing coalition if offered a deal that# would end with normalization with Saudi Arabia?
AARON DAVID MILLER: I'm betting# he's going to rely on what he knows,## a right-wing Israeli government.
If he goes# for the deal, he's going to end partners.
And those partners don't have much# regard for Mr. Netanyahu on trial for bribery,## fraud, breach of trust in# a Jerusalem district court.
I suspect, if he goes through this# deal, far from his b I think it's going to number his days.
NICK SCHIFRIN: Aaron David Miller, Khaled# Elgindy, thank you very much t AARON DAVID MILLER: Thank you, Nick.
KHAL
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