REP. MIKE LAWLER (R-NY): The bill is not passed.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: The House of Representa fails to pass a short-term funding bill.

This# makes a government shutdown all but certain.

REP. HAKEEM JEFFRIES (D-NY):# Shutdowns have been in the DNA## of my Republican colleagues# for the last 30 years or so.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: The House's top# Democrat has hard words for the GOP,## and Kevin McCarthy's speakership is in jeopardy# thanks to his hard-right adversaries, And welcome to WASHINGTON WEEK.

Tonight, the federal government is a House Republicans.

Right now, it looks like things# will grind to a halt Sunday just after midnight.

Not all Republicans are thrilled by this.

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY): Shutting down the# government doe It doesn't make any meaningful progress on policy.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: We'll explore# who the shutdown will affect the## most and why it's happening in the first place.

Kevin McCarthy is still speaker last time I# ch in charge of the House.

And if his detractors# have their way, he may not be for much longer.

One putative cause of the shutdown# is a dispute over Ukraine funding.## Russia's invasion of its neighbor has become# a corrosive political issue on Capitol Hill.## The results so far of Ukraine's counteroffensive# on its southern and eastern fronts are mixed,## and it's unclear if the Ukrainians will ever be## able to make the battlefield progress Joe# Biden, Joining me to discuss this and more, Anne# Applebaum, a staff writer and my colleague## at The Atlantic, Peter Baker, the chief White# House correspondent for The New York Times, Leigh## Ann Caldwell is a Washington Post live anchor# and the co-author of the Early 202 newsletter,## and Asma Khalid is a White House correspondent for# NPR and the co-host of the NPR Politics podcast.

Okay.

Leigh Ann, you're up.

What is# happening and why is it happening?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, Anchor, Washington# Post Live: Very good question.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Thank you So, you're absolutely right in your# lead.

Kevin McCarthy has lost control## of the House of Representatives.

So, this# started with him trying to placate the hard## right members of his party to accommodate# their demands of lower government spending,## of more border security, in order# to keep the government open.

But he has tried again and again, including# today, to pass a short-term spending bill for## the next 30 days to keep the government open.# And today, 21 members of his party rejected it.

The thing is he has an option.

He can try# to work with Democrats to pass something,## but he refuses to do so.

He is trying to do this# with just Republican votes, even though most of## these Republicans have never voted for government# spending, have never voted for a short-term## government spending bill.

So he's negotiating with# people who are never going to come to the table.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: What would be the political# consequences of him working with the D LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: The consequences are# the threat he faces on a constant of being removed from his speakership position.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But he faces that LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Anyway.

An over governance.

And he is trying to get these# people to agree to something that they're never## going to agree to.

They don't even like Kevin# McCarthy.

They are not loyal to him.

They think## he is insufficiently conservative.

They have# no desire to see -- watch him succeed.

And## so -- but he's still trying to placate them,# hoping that they don't bring up this motion,## this procedural motion on the House# floor, to remove him from his speakership.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Peter, to quote T. S.# Eliot, sorry, the giving famishes the## craving.

And it seems as if -- it seems as# if the more Kevin McCarty tries to placate## this band of right wing Republicans,# the more they feel contempt for him,## the more they are demanding.

Can# you explain McCarty's strategy?

PETER BAKER, Chief White House Correspondent,# The New York Times: I'm not sure McCarthy## could explain McCarthy's to placate them.

He gave them the impeachment# inquiry, even though I think probably not going to go anywhere, because right# now, there are a lot of Republicans who wo JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well, it's the Seinfeld# impeachment.

It's not about anything.

PETER BAKER: It's not about anything.# It LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: And the Seinfeld shutdown to PE he alienated the Democrats, who might have come# to his rescue had there been a motion had it not been for impeachment, but now what# would be their motivation for doing that?

So,## he's got no friends on the right, no friends# on the left.

He's got substantial supp the Republican caucus.

We shouldn't forget# that.

But because it's a narrow majority,## any small group of people can really torch him.

And the question is, Leigh Ann broke# the story, I think, this morning that they are planning to push for his# ousters as soon as the next few JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

Leigh# Ann, give us an update on that.

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Yes, so the sa this motion to vacate and trying to remove# McCarthy from his speakership.

And they're## even talking about people who they would# nominate to replace him, including one of## the people -- one of McCarthy's deputies, the# number three in House leadership, Tom Emmer.

Now, to be fair, Emmer says that# he is not initiating this at all,## but there are members of the hard right# who have spoken to Emmer about this.

And so this is -- you know, Emmer might not be the# person, he might not be the consensus candidate,## but it shows that they are very serious# about trying to get McCarthy out of there.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

And I wanted to ask you,## you've studied the American# conserva what motivates this furthest most right# faction within the House Republican caucus?

ANNE APPLEBAUM, Staff Writer, The Atlantic:# I think it's something that we're not used to## in American politics, and that's nihilism.

Their# real i undermining the system, change -- you know,# what they would call business as usual,## what the rest of us would call normal life.# They want to smash it up and break it.

And, unfortunately, my worry is# that by doing what they're doing,## they will increase disdain for Congress# and disdain for government, you know,## when people discover next week that they're# not being paid or services they expect can't## be delivered because, you know, some people are# fighting in Washington about things that most## people don't understand.

They will -- that will be# the effect of this.

They'll JE FFREY GOLDBERG: So, in other words, if# you're in government and don't like government,## the best way to advance your cause is to# have other people not like government?

ANNE APPLEBAUM: Yes, just throw the whole thing# up in the air, smash it up, and then let what happens next.

I mean, that's kind of,# you know, Bolshevik attitude to governing.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

Asma,## I want to hear what they ASMA KHALID, White House Correspondent, NPR:# Yes, I mean, there's of frustration with what's been going on.,# th at they did strike a bargain.

They struck a# deal, a bipartisan deal just a few months ago## to both solve the debt ceiling situation# but also to further fund the government.

I sat down, had an interview actually# with the chief of staff yesterday.

And## what he told me is that, ultimately,# he feels like this is a problem that## House Republicans have to solve, that# there is really limited role for the## White House to solve this problem# because it's an intraparty fight.

One question I did post to him, though,# is, are you concerned that as this pro goes on and the government does# potentially shut down next week,## does the public -- does some of that# spill over to the what he said is that they feel and they're# going to try to continue to show that Biden is## governing while House Republicans are engaged# in this shutdown drama and this impeachment.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But we've talked -- go ahead.

previous ones, right?

I mean, I think a lot# of Americans think, okay, we've had this shutdown and that shutdown.

This# is the fir about Republicans versus Republicans.# It's not Clinton versus Republicans as## it was in the 90s or Donald Trump versus# Democrats as it was just a few years JEFFREY GOLDBERG: This is internecine fighting.

If your enemy is busy shooting himself,# don't get in the middle of it.

But on the sidelines, are watching this happen# and there will be conseq JEFFREY GOLDBERG: But let me ask you about this# question.

Can -- and w Biden administration is sometimes not excellent# at taking advantage of political situations.

ASMA KHALID: Conveying.

from almost a cynical political# perspective, they should be doing?

ASMA KHALID: That they should be doing.

I mean,## one thing hear from the president about what's going# on?

He didn't very explicitly say how but## he said you can expect absolutely that the# president will be out there communicating.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Even just to make fun of them?

ASMA KHALID: Right.

I mean, I I think the challenge for this White House is# managing the shutdown actually falls on them.

And that is a problem that# this White House that the## chief of staff was dealing with in# the he was on a Zoom call with cabinet secret a call with Biden right afterwards.

I# mean they have to manage the problem.

And I guess I mentioned this in part because I# do wonder to some degree a if it continues kind of for who knows how# many weeks, does -- is there a spillover## effect to the White House if they cannot# effectively communicate whose fault this was?

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

and the 2018 shutdown is that this is# now a full government shutdown because## no appropriations bills have been passed.# And so no federal worker will get paid.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: No federal worker.

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: No fed PETER BAKER: Congress will, won't they?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Members of# Congress will.

Their staff will no JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Well LEIGH ANN CALDWE That's mid-October for the military.# It's October 21st for the Senate a the House of Representatives and federal# workers are somewhere in that stage too.

And so the interesting part is that# McCarthy, getting back to McCarthy## here, he has all these Biden district# Republicans who are serving in Congress.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: There are 18 of them, right?

LEIGH shutdown.

They think that they are going to# get blamed for it.

They say this privately,# very openly.

And meanwhile you have McCarthy# who's trying to save his job but not thinking## about the others, his members, who might# lose their jobs when they face voters.

PETER BAKER: That's constitutes its majority.

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: Yes.

speaker is?

Do they -- would they# prefer McCarthy over someone else?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: I feel like# I'm dominating this conversation.

PETE say, Matt Gaetz, but it's not going# to be a Matt Gaetz.

The question is,## is there anybody who can actually govern in# this circumstance?

A choice out.

There's not some legislative# wizard who can make the pond still agai And so I think that they're -- they have# to let the Republicans do it on their own.

ASMA KHALID: The majority is so# narrow that whatever and whoever## is in charge on the Republican side# ultimately has to work with De ANNE APPLEBAUM: So, there's a weird way in# which the closeness of the last the fact that Democrats did so well,## is bad for the current situation, because# there's no room on the Republican s JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Leigh Ann, let me ask you# one more question on this subject.

How much## of this is about the fact that Matt Gaetz and# Kevin McCarthy can't stand each other?

I mean,## is the country grinding to a halt# because these dudes don't get along?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: It's a big part of it, yes.

A# lot of this is personality-based Kevin McCarthy,## Matt Gaetz gets under his skin.

He# cannot stand Matt Gaetz.

Matt Gaetz## cannot stand Kevin McCarthy and he's doing# whatever he can to ruin Kevin McCarthy.

And so that is a big part of it, but there's# also others.

He alone cannot cause these## problems.

There are others who feel similarly.# And like what I said at the beginning is that he,## you know -- a lot of these conservatives# have never trusted Kevin McCarthy.

And that## is ultimately a problem and they have# not -- he has not gained their trust.

And the thing with Democrats is one of the things# that they're worried about is that no new will ever -- will be able to be elected in# this Republican majority and that there's## like chaos.

And so they are really having lots# of conversations about weighing their options,## about what to do if a motion to vacate comes up# for a vote, because, ultimately, it's going to## be in their hands because it needs a majority of# House of Representatives for it to be successful.

And there is not 218 Republicans# who are going to oust McCarthy.

So,## it's up to Democrats and there are# lots of conversations happening among## Democrats about what do they# do, do they save him or not?

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

I was going# to say let's pivot and t state of American democracy, but we already are# talking about the state of Bu t I want to talk about President Biden's# speech at the McCain Institute yesterday.## It was quite something to behold in part# because he really hasn't spent a lot of## time going directly at Donald Trump# and his record on democracy issues.

Peter, you were there with the president.

Give us## a brief encapsulation of what he said and# then I want to ask Anne what it all means.

PETER BAKER: Yes, you're right.

I mean, look, he# has talked about the fate of democracy several## times last year.

He really hasn't done it this# year.

And he's basically, you know the summer trying to promote his own economic# record, Bidenomics, as he likes to call it now,## and hasn't gotten them anywhere.

The approval n Donald Trump in a rematch if it happens next year.## And so they need to draw the contrast.# They need to scare voters, that a Trump election victory would be bad, not# just because you don't like his policy, but be bad for the country and the very tenets of democracy# that we have subscribed to for 200-some years.

And so he gets up there yesterday in Tempe,# Arizona, and he says, look, this isn't just I## disagree with him.

This is a guy who talks about# the death penalty for his own former top general.## This is a guy who threatens NBC by saying that# they are guilty of treason.

This is a guy who## promotes violence and nihilism to use Anne's great# word.

And he is a threat.

He doesn't believe in## the Constitution.

He believes in retribution.# Of course, that, again, is Donald Trump's word.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

Before we go to Anne,## I want you to watch something.

This is from# General Milley's retirement wh ere he went a bit off script, but right at this# subject.

Let's listen to what General Milley said.

GEN. MARK MILLEY, Retiring Chairman, Joint# Chiefs of Staff: We don't take an oath to a## king or a queen or a tyrant or a dictator.

And# we don't take an JEFFREY GOLDBERG: That last line.

ANNE APPLEBAUM: Who could that be?

JEFFREY seems overly harsh toward Biden.

But it was# interesting because Donald Trump has attacked Milley directly# and incited violence against General Milley.## Talk about this moment where you have the former# president actually demanding in a kind of way,## almost demanding the death penalty for the# now former chairman of the Joint Chiefs,## and what it means and why Joe# Biden is so worried about this.

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So Millie is a symbol or a# spokesman, if you will, for a broader of people, and that is the group of neutral# civil servants, public servants, members of## the military, people who serve the United States# no matter who the president is.

And it's this sort## of layer of people with kind of bipartisan# loyalties or loyalties to the Constitution.

I mean, they may vote one way or the other, but# at the end of the day, it doesn't matter to them## who's running the country, they're still loyal to# the country.

And that idea tha group of people, we've all come to take it for# granted, you know, that those people exist and## they'll always be there and they'll always# be people who are measuring the pollution## and the water and the person who does that job# is someone who k somebody's cousin, you know, who's a kind of party# member and that there is this neut And an attack on that group of people is really# what Trump is beginning to prepare.

You know,## it's whether it's Milley, whether it's,# you know, the bureaucrats, whether it's -- JEFFREY GOLDBERG: The head of the FBI.

ANNE APPLEBA You're also hearing this on the farthest# right part of the Repu And this is unbelievably dangerous.

And# this actually puts the U.S., I think,## in a different world actually, even from other# democracies that are challenged right now.## Because the idea that you would replace that# group of people with partisan hacks or with,## you would bring back the patronage system# that we had here in the 19th century## is, it would be unbelievably# damaging.

I think that's important.

I think also the fact that Biden chose to make# that statement about M more broadly at an event in honor of John# McCain was really important.

In other words,## he was saying, this idea that I'm talking# about isn't my partisan view.

It's not## that people who are big D Democrats or# small, you know, we're all Democrats.## We all believe in the country, us and# the Republicans.

And he -- you know,## he clearly doesn't want the idea of democracy# to become something partisan, you know?

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

Leigh Anne, I wanted to# ask you something.

We're talking about Ukraine a# lot this week.

And, obviously, Ukraine plays into# this shutdown issue in some ways.

But I want you## to gauge the depth for us of anti-Ukraine# feeling in the House Republican caucus.

I was interviewing Secretary of State# Tony Blinken yesterday at The Atlantic## Festival and I asked him this question how# worried they are that they're going to lose## bipartisan support for Ukraine funding.# And we'll listen to what he had to say.

ANTONY BLINKEN, Secretary of State:## If you look at polling, which is not w I've seen recently suggest that there is strong,# enduring support for our support for Ukraine.

In Congress, yes, there are some loud voices# that are taking a different tack.

But if you## look at the majority in both parties,# the support is there and it's sustained.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Are you as sanguine# as the secretary of state on that issue?

LEIGH ANN CALDWELL: So, several# months ago there was an amendment## vote to stop funding Ukraine.

About 70# Republicans vote there was an amendment vote on the House floor# to strip Ukraine money from a defense bill and## a majority of House Republicans voted for it,# more than 100 House Republicans voted for it.

And so that sentiment is growing in the House# of Representatives.

In the Senate, it is there.## It's a much smaller faction of Republicans# in the Senate.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch## McConnell is doing whatever he can to keep his# party in support of Ukraine.

He talks about this## in their closed-door meetings, their closed-door# lunches with his leadership.

But it is definitely## an uphill battle in Congress.

And the more this# goes on, they're bleeding Republican support.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: Right.

Asma, could you talk# about this?

This is a huge challenge for the## White House.

Are they doing anything# to future-proof support for Ukraine?

ASMA KHALID: Are they doing anything# to future-proof?

I don't know that I## have seen any indication of them really# doing anything to future-proof.

I mean,## they're routinely asked if they believe# the support is there and to the fact that there, thus far, has# been bipartisan support in Bu t, you know, I'm sort of struck by the divisions# that you see bet American public is because I do look at polls# and you see that support for Ukraine funding,## financial support for Ukraine is lower than where# it was at the start of the invasion.

And some## polls do show a majority of the American public# does not support continued financial support.

So, I agree that, thus far,# there's been bipartisan support,## which is what the White House says, but the# public does seem to be trending slightly,# ever so slightly more towards# where Republicans are.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And I asked Leigh Ann at# AN NE APPLEBAUM: You want me to explain Ukraine?

JEFFREY GO explain where we are in the war effort and if# Ukraine, just based on your own study if Ukraine is going to make progress at a pace# that Americans, comma, and impatient people,## comma, find pleasing?

And what are the# consequences of not getting continued support?

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So the polling that# I assume Secretary Blinken is talking## about often shows that support for Ukraine# goes up when Ukrainians Americans want to support Ukraine to win.# Where we are now is that they have made## some progress in their counteroffensive# and their attempt to take back territory,## but not as much as they had hoped, and we# had hoped, by this point in the calendar.

And what you're beginning to see is them# beginning to do new kinds of things.

So,## they're now striking Crimea more often.

They# hit the headquarters of the Black Sea fleet a## few days ago.

You saw once again yesterday or# the day before these Russian commandos who are## the sort of anti-Putin Russians are moving# again in the northern part of the country.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: They're# taking the fight into Russia?

And remember that this war is# over when the Russians leave,## and it doesn't matter why they leave.

They# can leave because the Ukrainians have back territory.

They can leave because# they've lost too much in Crimea.

I mean,## there are a number of ways in which# they can be encouraged to leave.

And what you'll see over the next few weeks# is the Ukrainians trying a lot of dif things.

They're as aware of the American# political schedule as everybody else.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: They are maybe more# aware of the American political schedule## than they are because they have a fear of# a Donald Trump PETER BAKER: This is why this fight is# actually really important right now,## not just because they need artillery and# ammunition a near future, but because in Moscow, Vladimir Putin# is watching that clock and he is playing for time.

He understands that diminished support# by the public will only encourage more## Republicans to vote against funding.

And# in November of 2024, there is at least## a decent chance that Donald Trump will# be returned to the presidency, and that## will be it as far as American support# for Ukraine.

So why And that's why the next year is so critical for# Ukraine, because unless they make a difference on## the battlefield between now and then, it's very up# in the air starting, you know, 14 months from n JEFFREY GOLDBERG: And the last word# to you on this.

Is there a chance,## based on what you see, that Ukraine# will have dramatic gains along the## American electoral calendar before that?# No, it's a serious question, right?

ANNE APPLEBAUM: So, yes, there is a chance# and there are people who are planning for## that and they hope it will happen.

You# know, the Russian defense was th an they expected.

The minefields were# wider and broader than actually anybody## has ever -- anything anybody has ever# crossed.

So -- but they do think so.

JEFFREY GOLDBERG: It's a fascinating# conversation.

I wish we continue.

But,## alas, but we need to leave it there for now.

I want to thank our panelists for# joining us a And before we sign off, I just want to note# that today marks the six-month anniversary of## Wall Street Journal Reporter Evan Gershkovich's# captivity in Russia.

And tonight, as every night,## his colleagues across journalism are thinking# of him and hoping and working for his release.

I'm Jeffrey Goldberg.

Good night from Washington.