(triumphant music) - [Tony] A historic declaration on the Colorado River, farmers in Arizona brace for cuts to their share.

- So every single thing we can do we're trying, but it's only so much you can do.

- [Tony] As Americans prepared to roll up their sleeves for a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, what to know about the rollout of booster shots in Pima County.

- Probably at the highest we'll have to do about 20,000 vaccines a week.

- [Tony] And what results from the 2020 census reveal about the state's changing demographics.

- Five Arizona counties lost population.

- Hello and welcome to Arizona 360, I'm Tony Paniagua, filling in full of Lorraine Rivera.

Thanks for joining us.

It is a first for a river that has flowed for millions of years throughout the Southwest.

This week, the federal government declared a shortage along the Colorado River.

The announcement comes as no surprise as levels in Lake Mead hit historic lows this summer, but at the states that the Colorado supplies, the cuts carry the most weight for Arizona.

Under the drought contingency plan agreed upon by seven states, when levels in Lake Mead trigger a "Tier 1 shortage" Arizona sees its share of Colorado River cut by 18%.

As for when the cuts take effect and who it will impact the most I'm joined by Arizona Public Media's, Christopher Conover.

Christopher, thanks for being here and quite a significant decision by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

How did this come about?

- It is a significant decision and it really dates back most recently to the drought contingency plan as you mentioned, that was signed in 2019 by seven states, Arizona being one of them, it was approved by our Legislature and then the whole plan was approved by Congress.

And that laid out what happens as shortages get declared along the Colorado River.

So let's take a look at a map because a lot of times we don't even know exactly where the Colorado River is.

And tell us a little bit about when it comes into Arizona, where does it go first?

- It comes into Arizona in Page, Arizona, Lake Powell.

A lot of people know that as a place to rent a houseboat or spend a weekend, it comes then heading west towards the Grand Canyon, goes through the Grand Canyon, meet the Grand Canyon and it works its way towards the Arizona-Nevada border, near Las Vegas Lake Mead, that's the other one everybody knows.

And then the Colorado follows almost the Arizona, Nevada and California borders going South and it leaves the U.S. going into Mexico at Yuma.

Now some people may say, well, wait a minute, how does Tucson, Phoenix, Pinal County get their water from the Colorado?

That's the Central Arizona Project.

Water is diverted towards Phoenix, Lake Pleasant and that's the top of the Colorado River for us, the Central Arizona Project and then through a series of canals that comes down through Phoenix, Maricopa County, Pinal County and ends here in Tucson.

- And it isn't only Arizona that's going to be taking a cut, I also read that it's also going to be Nevada and the country of Mexico.

So this is going to have an impact on millions of people.

- Millions of people.

And Arizona takes the biggest cut, that was part of the drought contingency plan it's what we agreed to.

And that is a long time coming and part of that is because of the Central Arizona Project.

Historically, there have been many, many agreements on the use of the Colorado River.

- And of course, here in the State of Arizona, many of those that are worried are farmers because I was reading somewhere else as well, that apparently about 20% of the State's water supply is used for municipal purposes, the cities, the towns and so on, but the other 80% is used by other industries.

- Right under the drought contingency plan when a Tier 1 shortage is declared in Arizona, it's agriculture that takes the lion share of that cut.

Agriculture has already been taking some cuts, but as this official shortage has come along agriculture takes the big cut, which for our viewers really means Pinal county.

There is some agriculture in Pima, there is some agriculture in Maricopa, but Pinal County farmers, the cotton farmers, they will take the big cut.

- So when is it scheduled to start to go into effect?

- The cuts are announced now they were announced this week, they go into effect in January.

- And of course, what happens next?

'Cause that's a big concern.

Much of it will depend on how much snow we get in the State of Colorado, because that's where our water is, it begins, right?

- Right, the headwaters of the Colorado River, it depends on winter snowpack, of course, all the rain we've been getting here in Southern Arizona is great.

It means we have to water our plants, water our crops less, but it only recharges our local aquifers.

So they need snow in the Colorado rockies they need rain in the Colorado rockies and it is going to take time.

Climate experts say this is probably potentially closer to the new normal though.

The next issue is the Tier 2 cut, it's when the lake falls even further.

And some people are expecting that as soon as the end of 2022.

- And then one final question, Christopher, any idea on what could trigger cuts for municipalities?

'Cause of course, most of the people are living in cities and towns?

- It all comes down to the cuts that we have to take on Tier 2 and Tier 3.

I talked to in the course of my reporting, Tucson Water, which supplies a lot of our viewers with its water.

And they're not worried because they've been storing their Colorado River water, the allotment that Tucson Water gets.

"We have it stored," they said, "for about a decade, and that doesn't mean go out and leave the hose running or let the shower run for too long, but we have plenty of water in Tucson Water basin for right now."

- Christopher Conover, thank you very much for joining us.

And we'll look forward to more reports from you.

- My pleasure.

- And as you just heard, Arizona's agricultural industry will bear the brunt of the shortages impacts.

We traveled to Pinal County, west of Casa Grande where a farmer and his family are bracing for the cuts.

Will Thelander and his family have been farming in Pinal County for several decades, beginning with his grandfather in the 1940s.

The Tempe Farming Company grows crops such as cotton, alfalfa and corn.

- Been great.

Started off just helping out then got more and more duties around the farm.

Eventually became a partner a few years back and yeah, it's been going great.

Till these water cuts that we've been facing and so it's gonna be a lot more difficult moving forward.

- [Tony] Thelander is referring to the Tier 1 cuts along the Colorado River approved by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

The Central Arizona Project or CAP is an expansive and expensive system that won't be able to deliver as much water as usual to the middle of the state.

- The Tier 1 cuts specifically our irrigations district, their contract with the CAP, we're getting cut back by a ton of it.

So now instead of getting surface water from the Colorado, we're gonna have to do a lot more ground water pumping.

So that's what it means, we're gonna have a lot less water.

- Any idea on the number of farmers in this area that are going to be impacted by this Tier 1?

- Farms our size, there's about, I wanna say like eight, really big farms that are gonna be making massive decisions this year on how much to plant and equipment and all that stuff.

(water lapping) - During this monsoon which has dropped record rainfall in cities like Tucson, Thelander situation seemed surreal.

(water lapping) On our way to his farm west of Casa Grande, the raging Greene Wash adjacent to (indistinct) kept us from reaching his property.

We detoured to his cousin's farm instead.

Does it seem ironic that we couldn't get to your farm because of this wash moving so heavily right now?

- Yeah, yeah, it's very ironic because (chuckles) wish I could just build a giant reservoir and catch it all, so I'd have water for next year, but life doesn't work that way.

I wish those monsoons would just wait until the winter and go snow up in the rockies.

- [Tony] The Colorado is fed by that snow melt, but this monsoon rain is a different story.

It is very much appreciated, but unpredictable as a long-term solution.

- Well, yeah, everyone's just like, "Oh it rains, so now we have water."

It's like, nope, there's reservoirs have to be above the city, so Phoenix, Tucson, reservoirs, water can flow down.

It doesn't, we got a bunch of water raining right here we can pump it once it sinks in, but there's not a lot sinking in when you got a river flowing, so, yep unfortunately this doesn't help with Colorado.

The district's doing everything it can do drill wells throughout the district to try to move as much water as we can to keep as much in production as we can.

- [Tony] Thelander has already stopped using hundreds of acres on his farm in order to save water.

And he's also experimenting with plants that require less irrigation.

Farmers, he says are trying their best as a competition for this precious resource heats up.

- So every single thing we can do we're trying, it's only so much you can do.

People are always gonna come first and when there's only so much water development for people makes a lot more money than agriculture on a per acre or land basis.

So you're not gonna win money-wise and you're not gonna win, hey, tell people they can't have water.

And the amount of water agriculture uses compared to the civilian population it's like, I think it's 80% of all water goes to agriculture, so we're gonna be the first cut.

One thing I hear from a lot of people online, 'cause some of the other interviews is the fact that we shouldn't be farming in the desert anyway.

And then I, my retort to that is all the farmers and everyone built all the infrastructure for all these people to move out here, without us none of these people would be here.

And to that point, should we have people living in a desert?

Should we build a city in the middle of a desert?

I don't know.

These are all questions that everyone could be asking themselves.

It is what it is.

And who am I gonna yell at?

The clouds for not dumping enough snow in the Colorado?

For them over allocating the Colorado River?

A while ago when we're in a wet period, when the scientists even know we're in a wet period.

So, I mean, there's no one to be mad at.

It's just do everything you can and keep moving forward.

- This week, the Biden Administration recommended COVID-19 vaccine booster shots for most Americans.

People who received their second shot eight months ago can get a third dose of Pfizer or Moderna as soon as next month, but the White House has signaled certain groups have priority.

As for what the rollout of boosters in Pima County could look like, we asked Public Health Director, Theresa Cullen.

- [Theresa] So there's two different parts of that approach right now.

One is if you are immunocompromised, that is a decision that many people may be able to make themselves.

If you've had cancer, if you're under chemo treatment, if you've had a transplant, if you're on certain medications, you would be considered immunocompromised.

Many people will know that themselves, some people may need to discuss that with their provider.

People that are immunocompromised should seek a third shot right now if they've had the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine.

J & J, we're not sure yet, the data isn't in so we're discussing that.

The larger issue is for everyone that's been fully immunized more than eight months since their second immunization or their first shot if it was J & J.

The recommendation we believe will come out and we heard it from the White House is that at that eight month time period, people should seek another booster shot.

Now, remember that and it seems so long ago when we started doing immunizations, but there was this categorization, 1a, 1b.

1a was healthcare workers, long-term care, assisted living.

So what we believe we'll see is in that first troche of people, most of them will be the people that were healthcare workers, long-term care and assisted living.

We are waiting for full guidance from the CDC and what we call the ACIP, which is the Committee on Immunization Practice.

- And for those people who are against vaccinations, they're already using this recommended booster as a reason not to get vaccinated.

They're saying, you know, these vaccines don't work, 'cause they're already asking us to get a third vaccine.

How would you respond to those people?

- [Theresa] Well, I think people need to remember that, remember when you're little or if you've ever had children, they get multiple vaccines that are the same vaccine repeatedly.

The flu shot, we update the flu shot every year.

It does not mean that the flu shot last year wasn't effective, it just means that we needed to boost your immune system a little.

So there's no indication that the vaccination process that we've done right now, the J & J, Moderna, Pfizer is ineffective.

What we worry about is this sense of decreased immunogenicity, which means your response might not be as great as it would have been the first three, four, five six, seven, eight months after you got your first shot.

So we're just giving you additional protection, we're making your shroud less penetrable, less able for you to get the disease.

- And in so far as the booster shots, is the county playing a role?

Are you assisting in this effort?

- [Theresa] Yeah, that's a great question.

We're in the process of developing our plan to ensure that we can do the boosters right now for immunocompromised people, all of our clinics have extended hours you know, people may not know this, but we do run three health clinics and they have hours till 7:00 at night.

We've worked with the pharmacies, they're all able to give the boosters right now.

I do wanna clarify for people that we're not asking you to prove that you're immunocompromised, there is a implicit element of trust remember in the patient provider, health care network and our relationship with you.

So we're asking that people that are immunocompromised either because they know that or their provider has told them that, to seek the third vaccination.

As we move into the larger vaccination in September, we will be playing a large role.

We actually, like I stated, we're in the process of trying to develop the appropriate response to that.

We do believe that we will be continuing to have mobile clinics, we have lots now.

We're gonna expand those so that we can accommodate the influx of people that need a second shot.

On our back of the envelope calculation we think at probably at the highest we'll have to do about 20,000 vaccines a week.

Right now, our pharmacies are doing a great job.

They're doing about three to 5,000 a week.

So what we're gonna have to do is all work together to make sure we can escalate that number.

- Are there enough vaccines to go around or are you concerned that there won't be, if many, many people turn up saying that they want this booster shot?

- [Theresa] We do have enough vaccines as people have known we have vaccines in supply.

And in the remember the low temperature freezers, we have lots of vaccines.

So what we saw remember in January and February, when people were really struggling and really frustrated 'cause they couldn't get a vaccine, that is not gonna be the situation this time.

- Any idea on when younger children might be able to get vaccinated, how are those studies coming along?

- [Theresa] You know those studies are coming along.

Remember what will have to happen is the drug companies who make Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or J & J, will have to submit to the FDA, they'll have to go through that Emergency Use Authorization process.

There have not been submissions yet to them.

We know that the studies are ongoing and we are aware that some of them are complete.

We do expect or we anticipate and hope that perhaps by the end of September, early October, we'll see the extension of the vaccine into that age group.

- We've heard about younger children in another states getting sick, very sick.

Is this a concern right here in Pima County and the rest of the State?

- [Theresa] Yeah, pediatric cases do seem to be increasing from COVID, we know that there are pediatric admissions.

I think what's important to notice within the school system itself and this number changes by the hour.

Since we went back to school, we have had over 800 cases reported to us.

We've had a very significant number of outbreaks, which continue to be reported.

And we work very closely with the schools.

You know, from the Public Health perspective, we have the ability to mandate isolation and quarantine for individual students.

We work with the schools to identify who's at risk, who isn't at risk.

If there's a recommendation to close a classroom, that recommendation comes from us.

And actually it's more than a recommendation.

It's a mandate that certain classrooms be closed if they meet certain infection rates.

- Dr. Theresa Cullen from the Pima County Health Department, thank you very much for joining us.

- [Theresa] Thank you.

Thank you for the opportunity to speak.

- About 90% of the businesses in Arizona are considered small based on their staffing levels.

It is estimated about 5% shut their doors during the last 18 months or so.

Rick Murray from the Arizona Small Business Association says, it is in large part because the pandemic caused revenue to drop 30 to 40%.

He spoke to Lorraine Rivera recently about the challenges that small businesses are up against.

Here's their discussion.

- Rick let's look back.

How have small businesses throughout the State of Arizona fare during the pandemic?

- Well, it's a kind of a good and a bad of it.

Certainly, we've discovered a lot of things that we can't do that we didn't think we could do at the beginning, but it's been a tough road for most of the small businesses.

And then coming back now, it's been equally as tough.

It's tough to find employees that's, you know, bringing customers back.

You know, we've got more mandates from a mass standpoint.

And so, it's kind of been one of those up and down herky-jerky stuff, and go in regards to what, what our small businesses can do.

But the federal bailout certainly helped a lot of small businesses to weather through some of this.

Obviously, those who were best prepared for this was the ones who had cash enabled to weather through it and keep their employees onboard as well.

So it's been a, you know, it's kind of, how do you plan for the future?

How do you plan for these kinds of things?

You just, you know, it's hard to plan for anything, but you always wanna be planning for that rainy day.

- What was the Small Business Associations guidance to those mom-and-pop shops when they were having to navigate state mandates or local ordinances, and really having to decide who to follow?

- Well, we were there as a resource, and certainly we wanted to make sure that they understood all the options out there for them and the opportunities and a lot of the small businesses, the mom-and-pop out there didn't understand the whole PPP processes, it certainly was complicated even for the most, you know, the ones who are most in tune with it.

So we were helping a lot of those business to get through and navigate the pitfalls and opportunities that was in front of them.

And so, while we continue to help them through those, we've got opportunities for, you know, our businesses in regards to relationships with lenders to help them through some of these pieces.

But I think the lenders also have stepped up well, they've been certainly more than willing to help small business as long as they had the capacity to be able to see the future of new business coming in.

But, you know, it's, you know, it's all kind of hit and miss for both our financers and for our businesses on whether or not they wanna even continue moving forward, it's the time to go get a job kind of thing and they'll give up their dream of owning their won business too.

- Early on you indicated that some businesses were able to thrive and adapt and pivot.

What would you say were some of the successes that emerged during the pandemic?

- Well, I think, what I think most of us realize is that we can do a lot more than we thought we could and with a lot less than we thought we could.

I think some of the other successes, yeah depending on what side of the fence you're on, is that, well, maybe we don't need an office anymore and maybe we can work remotely.

And so, that is gonna be an interesting dynamic as we move forward in regards to office space, do we need an office as much office space?

And so we're kind of keeping an eye on those kinds of things right now, from a landlord tenant perspective of what those, what the future holds in that area.

But having, as we're doing this interview today, this is kind of a new dynamic I think, for all of us.

And now we're kind of becoming pretty old hands at this electronic communication.

- There were a variety of supports in place from the federal to local state governments.

What would you like to see from the public as you know, in some areas, it looks like the pandemic might be loosening up, but in others, it very much remains part of our day to day.

- I think we have to understand that this is going to be our new reality for the foreseeable future, where we're at.

And I think as a business owner, this is our new reality, and we need to be able to continue to weather through this, continue to find ways to do business in this new economy as we call it.

And I think even our consumers are trying to figure it out, they're going through it just like we are.

And so, as we go out as a consumer, you know, understand what that small business owner is up against has been up against because, you know, we've all lived together.

And I think the fact that, you know, misery loves company is certainly, it boats in this education very well here, so.

- Rick Murray from the Arizona Small Business Association, thank you.

- Thank you.

(soft music) - With more people moving to Arizona, the latest data from the 2020 census offers insight into where they're relocating.

One takeaway is that while urban Metro saw growth populations in some rural counties are shrinking.

To understand more about how the state's demographics are changing, we got analysis from Jason Jurjevich, an Associate Professor at the University of Arizona whose research involves the census.

- I think that a number of ways in which the state's changing, especially compared to previous growth patterns, is the state's growing slowly more slowly.

So between 2010 and 2020, the growth rate was, was much less, much slower than what it was in 2000 to 2010.

And we also see as a part of that, a rural-urban divide that mirrors some national level trends.

So in 2000 to 2010, just one Arizona county lost population and in between 2010 and 2020, five Arizona counties lost population.

And so, that sort of difference between the growth in Maricopa and Pima as well as Mohave County versus some of the more rural counties is representative of what we're seeing nationally.

And we're also seeing two other sort of takeaways, I think, is an increasingly aging population across the state, particularly in rural areas.

And Arizona is becoming even more racially and ethnically diverse based on data from the past 10 years.

- And just to remind our viewers what happens with this data next?

- Yeah, so the states have those redistricting files.

And so many of them are busy, you know, obviously looking at the data and processing it with respect to redrawing congressional districts, redrawing State House and Senate districts.

And because of the delay, there's a lot of pressure for various states given the deadlines for candidacy filing to get the work done in time.

- Jason, will there be some negative ramifications for the rural area, since the data is showing that they are shrinking in most cases here in the State of Arizona?

- Yeah, I think there's gonna be political shifts not only in Arizona with respect to rural areas, but across most of the country.

When we look at the decline of the population decline in rural areas, five Arizona counties lost population and they include Apache, Cochise, La Paz, and Navajo and Gila counties.

And so as a result of that, they'll have sort of less political influence in terms of the State House and Senate districts than they would compared to the previous census.

- And Jason, what else are you going to be looking at in the next few months, as far as this data that came out from the census?

- So there's another data file that will come out in the next couple of weeks, which is a detailed set of tables relating to the redistricting data.

And then of course, we will wrap up our evaluation of the census with the post enumeration survey to really get a sense of how accurate the census was.

No census is completely accurate unfortunately, some people are overcounted and some people including the hard to count populations are often undercounted.

And just as an example, 2010 census was considered by many to be one of the most accurate censuses in American history.

But when we look at specific racial, ethnic groups, as well as data for particular hard to count populations in 2010, for example, a 2.1% of black African-American individuals were missed in the census, which is roughly 800,000 black African-American individuals.

1.5% of the Hispanic Latino population was undercounted, which was roughly 750,000 individuals.

So once those data become available, we'll be evaluating those data for a better sense of how the census bureau did in 2020.

- Jason Jurjevich, thank you very much for joining us.

- Thanks Tony, appreciate it.

- That's all for now.

Thanks for joining us.

To get in touch, visit us on social media or send an email to arizona360@azpm.org, and let us know what you think.

We'll see you next week.

(triumphant music)