>> ALL RIGHT.

BACK TO YOU, CATHY AND ERIC.

>> CATHY: WE HAVE A LOT GOING ON HERE AT THE MAIN STAGE.

WE'RE AT THE MPR NEWS BOOTH, CORNER OF JUDSON AND NELSON, LIVE ON THE RADIO BUT THIS IS ALSO A TELEVISION PROGRAM YOU'RE WATCHING, IT'S "ALMANAC" ON TWIN CITIES PBS.

IT IS A SUNNY DAY HERE AT THE STATE FAIR AND I HAVE TO SAY IT'S JUST MAYBE A LITTLE CLOSE, SHALL WE SAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80s AND HUMIDITY IS A LITTLE UP THERE BUT NOT AS BAD AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS WEEK, THAT'S FOR SURE.

WE'VE HAD RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS SUMMER, WE'VE HAD SMOKE, WE'VE HAD ALL KINDS OF WEATHER ANOMALIES.

JOINING US RIGHT NOW IS MINNESOTA PUBLIC RADIO'S CHIEF METEOROLOGIST, PAUL HUTTNER.

>> HEY, CATHY, ERIC, GOOD TO SEE YOU.

HEY, EVERYBODY.

>> IT'S ONLY 82 DEGREES RIGHT NOW.

>> Cathy: IT FEELS A LITTLE WARMER THAN 82 ON THE STAGE HERE, I HAVE TO SAY THAT.

>> IT DOES, YEAH.

>> Cathy: LET'S PUT THIS SUMMER INTO CONTEXT.

IT'S BEEN HOT BUT WHERE DOES IT FIT IN THE CONTEXT OF PAST SUMMERS?

>> YEAH, WE WERE ON PACE, CATHY, FOR A TOP-FIVE WARMEST SUMMER UP UNTIL THIS WEEK, RIGHT, WITH THAT HEAT WE HAD EARLIER THIS WEEK.

IT'S GOING TO COOL OFF THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST SO I THINK WE'LL END UP TOP 10-ISH FOR WARMEST SUMMERS ON RECORDS BUT WE'VE HAD 26 DAYS OF 90-DEGREE PLUS HEAT.

I CALL THAT WURZER WEATHER... CATHY LIKES IT HOT.

>> Cathy: YEAH, I DO.

>> SO 26 DAYS OF 90-DEGREE WEATHER AND THE DROUGHT AGAIN.

>> Eric: WHY SO HOT?

>> I THINK THAT'S A MATTER OF VARIABILITY.

THERE'S WE THINK A BIG HIGH RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

THEY HAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 134 LAST WEEK IN KANSAS.

THAT BERMUDA HIGH HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY AND IT FINALLY EDGED NORTH INTO MINNESOTA.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN MINNESOTA BUT LESS SO IN SUMMER THAN IN FALL AND WINTER WHICH ARE THE FASTEST WARMING SEASONS.

>> Cathy: SO WE'RE GOING TO SAY GOODBYE TO METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER SIX DAYS FROM NOW SO IN CASE YOU DON'T LIKE THIS, HANG ON, FALL IS COMING.

IS IT TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT WINTER?

>> NEVER.

NEVER TOO EARLY IN MINNESOTA, RIGHT?

I JUST FLASH BACK TO LAST WINTER REALLY QUICK BECAUSE DECEMBER 14th IS A DATE THAT STICKS IN MY HEAD.

THAT WAS THE DATE WHEN WE STARTED THAT STRING OF 11 SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENTS THAT LED TO 90 INCHES OF SNOW, RIGHT, SO THAT WAS A THIRD SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD.

40 YEARS WE HAVEN'T HAD THAT MUCH SNOW SO IF YOU'RE UNDER 40 IN THE AUDIENCE, THIS WAS THE SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD, CATHY, AND, YEAH, JUST CRAZY.

IF WE LOOK AHEAD, WE'RE LOOKING AT WHAT COULD BE A SUPER EL NIÑO.

>> ERIC: WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EL NIÑO AND SUPER EL NIÑO.

>> THE DEGREE OF WATER WARMING IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, SO AN EL NIÑO MEANS A HALF A DEGREE CELSIUS WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THEN YOU WORK YOUR WAY UP, STRONG EL NIÑO, WHICH NOAA IS FORECASTING NOW ABOUT A TWO IN THREE CHANCE FOR NEXT WINTER IS 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN AVERAGE ON THAT TROPICAL PACIFIC WATER BASIN.

THERE ARE SOME MODELS THERE THAT ARE SAYING WE COULD HAVE TWO DEGREES CELSIUS OR MORE, AUSTRALIAN MODELS, SOME OTHER MODELS.

THAT WOULD BE WHAT'S UNOFFICIALLY CALLED A SUPER EL NIÑO.

WE'VE ONLY HAD A FEW OF THOSE AND EL NIÑO IN GENERAL, BIAS FOR A WARMER THAN AVERAGE WINTER IN MINNESOTA, ABOUT 70 TO 80% OF YEARS, SO PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE'LL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

SNOW COULD GO EITHER WAY BUT I'M THINKING AFTER LAST YEAR, WE MAY END UP AVERAGE OR BELOW, MAYBE EVEN HAVE SOME MELTY PERIODS WITH SOME ICE AND RAIN THIS WINTER, IF THIS EL NIÑO THING KICKS IN LIKE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL.

>> Cathy: I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY, THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE'LL SEE MORE ICE THAN SNOW.

WE DON'T REALLY KNOW.

>> WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE BUT MINNESOTA, EVEN IF YOU'RE WARMER THAN AVERAGE, IT'S STILL COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW MOST OF THE TIME, RIGHT.

BUT WE GET THOSE PERIODS WHEN WE'RE UP AROUND THE FREEZING MARK, AND ESPECIALLY BELOW ABOUT 5,000 FEET IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THAT'S ENOUGH TO CHANGE IT OVER TO RAIN OR MAYBE SOME SLEET OR SOME FREEZING RAIN, SO I THINK WE MIGHT SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THAT THIS WINTER.

>> Cathy: SO, GETTING BACK TO THE DROUGHT.

WHAT DOES NOAA SAY IN TERMS OF RAIN AMOUNTS FROM NOW UNTIL FALL WHEN WE HAVE TO RECHARGE THE GROUND WATER?

>> THE 30- AND 90-DAY WATER OUTLOOKS CALL FOR AVERAGE TO MAYBE BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL SO I DON'T SEE ANY BIG CHANGE RIGHT NOW.

BUT WHAT WE KNOW WHEN THE HEMISPHERE PATTERNS CHANGE, THEY CAN GET STUCK SO THAT'S WHY WE HAD ALL THAT SNOW, ALL THAT SNOW, ALL THAT SNOW AND THEN, BOOM, WE GO FROM OUR CRUEL SPRING INTO ONE OF THE WARMEST SUMMERS ON RECORD, AT LEAST A TOP 10.

SO THESE PATTERNS CAN CHANGE.

WE COULD WORK OUR WAY OUT OF THE DROUGHT BUT IT'S REALLY HARD TO DO IN LATE SUMMER AND FALL.

>> Eric: SOUNDS GREAT.

>> Cathy: WELL, YOU ARE TERRIFIC.

THANK YOU, PAUL HUTTNER, AS ALWAYS.

YOU GET TO HEAR MR. HUTTNER ON "ALL THINGS CONSIDERED" IN THE AFTERNOON WITH TOM CRANN ON MPR NEWS.