>> Cathy: WELL, BY GOLLY, ON OLD-FASHIONED OURNAMENT BLIZZARD, HIT A LARGE SWATH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OVER THE WEEKEND, DUMPING MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW, CLOSING ROADS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.

AND JUST A MERE 9 OR 10 INCHES IN MUCH OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO.

THIS COMING WEEKEND'S WEATHER FORECAST?

TEMPS ARE PROJECTED IN THE 70S FOR SOME OF THOSE SAME LOCATIONS.

WEATHER WHIPLASH, ANYONE?

OR SHOULD WE CALL IT A WEATHER ROLLER COASTER?

WE HAVE OUR ALL-STAR WEATHER DUO HERE TO HELP US DECIDE WHICH 'CLEVER' PHRASE OUR PRODUCERS SHOULD BE USING.

PAUL DOUGLAS.

WHEN HE'S NOT TALKING SNOW TOTALS AND FORECASTING WITH US, YOU CAN CATCH HIS PREDICTIONS IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE."

HE ALSO RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PREDICT-IX.

AND WE'RE HAPPY TO HAVE MARK SEELEY BACK WITH US TONIGHT.

HE IS THE AUTHOR OF "MINNESOTA WEATHER ALMANAC" AND A PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

YOU GUYS, GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT FORECASTING SNOW TOTALS IS NOT EASY.

PAUL DOUGLAS.

>> NO, IT'S NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE, LIKE ECONOMICS.

>> Cathy: RIGHT.

BUT THEY SEEM TO DO A PRETTY DARN FINE JOB THIS PAST WEEKEND.

>> YEAH.

I THINK MOST OF US, AND I'M SPEAKING COLLECTIVELY, FIRST OF ALL, IF YOU PREDICT A BLIZZARD, IT'S LIKE YELLING "FIRE" IN A CROWDED THEATER.

YOU BETTER BE RIGHT.

BUT I THINK MOST OF THE METEOROLOGISTS HAD THE RIGHT IDEA.

THE WEATHER SERVICE DID A GREAT JOB.

WE KNEW THERE WAS GOING TO E A NARROW BAND OF ONE TO TWO FEET.

AT THE LAST MOMENT, THE MODEL SHIFTED IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY HAD -- IRONICALLY, THE FORECAST TWO DAYS BEFORE THE EVENT WAS BETTER THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ACTUALLY ARRIVED.

BUT PEOPLE KNEW IT WAS NOT GOING TO E A GARDEN-VARIETY GENERIC MARCH SNOWSTORM THAT IT WAS GOING TO BE A BLIZZARD.

AND IT WAS.

AND MANY SPOTS DID GET ONE TO TWO FEET.

>> Cathy: HOW DO YOU PUT THIS INTO CONTEXT, Dr.

SEELEY, WHEN IT COMES TO OUR HISTORIC RECORD?

>> WELL, OUR MARCH HISTORY IN MINNESOTA, AS MOST MINNESOTANS ARE AWARE, IS FULL OF STORIES ABOUT BLIZZARDS, ALL KINDS OF BLIZZARDS.

SO IT'S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF HISTORICAL PROBABILITY.

I MEAN, WE GET -- THINK THE NOTION, THOUGH, THAT WE HAD BACK-TO-BACK CONDITIONS THAT AFFECTED DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHIES, THE ONE EARLIER OVER THE 12th AND 13th AFFECTED THE NORTH SHORE, WHICH HAD A BLIZZARD, AND THEY HAD TO SHUT DOWN PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 61, 9 TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW AND HEAVY WINDS UP THERE.

AND THEN WE ONLY HAD, CATHY, A BRIEF RESPITE, OF MAYBE HALF A DAY AND WE TRANSITIONED INTO THE NEXT BLIZZARD, WHICH AS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHICH WAS OVER THE 14th DO THE 16th -- TO THE 16th, AND AGAIN, WE HAD ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES, UP TO 20 INCHES IN WABASHA COUNTY AND WE HAD THE HIGH WINDS.

AND WHAT I THINK CAUGHT MY ATTENTION, AND PAUL PROBABLY MIGHT WANT TO REMARK ABOUT THIS, THE SWATH FOR THAT BLIZZARD WARNING WAS A BIG SWATH, WASN'T IT?

>> YEAH.

>> IT OCCUPIED -- A LOT OF TIMES IN MARCH, WE HAVE BLIZZARD WARNINGS, BUT THEY'RE SMALLER GEOGRAPHY.

BUT THAT ONE WAS PRETTY WIDE SWATH.

>> YEAH, IT WAS THE FOURTH BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE METRO IN THE LAST 20 YEARS.

AND EVEN A LOT OF METEOROLOGISTS GET CONFUSED WITH BLIZZARDS.

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE RATE OF SNOW OR -- I MEAN, YOU CAN GET A BLIZZARD WITH BLUE SKY OVERHEAD, THE SUN OUT.

IT'S A FUNCTION OF VISIBILITY WHEN IT DROPS NEAR ZERO WITH HIGH WINDS.

YOU CAN'T SEE THE HORIZON.

AND IF YOU'RE DRIVING, AND YOU CAN'T SEE THE HORIZON, IT'S VERY EASY TO DRIVE OFF THE ROAD.

YEAH.

>> Eric: DOES ANY OF THIS HAVE KIND OF PREDICTIVE POWER TO WHAT THE SUMMER MIGHT LOOK LIKE OR THE SPRING?

>> NOT REALLY.

SERIAL CORRELATION.

IN FACT, I'VE WRITTEN ABOUT THAT IN MY BOOKS QUITE A BIT.

WE'VE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO LAY A GOOD CLAIM FOR SERIAL CORRELATION, TIME CORRELATION ON WEATHER EVENTS IN MINNESOTA.

WE'RE WAY TOO VARIABLE FOR THAT, ERIC.

IT'S CRAZY.

ALTHOUGH TOMORROW, WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT THIS BEFORE WE WENT ON THE AIR, TOMORROW'S TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GO UP NEAR THE ALL-TIME STATE RECORD.

I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME HIGHS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA, OVER 80° TOMORROW.

>> Cathy: IS THIS THIS BUBBLE OF HOT AIR THAT WAS FRYING PHOENIX?

>> YES.

>> Cathy: HAS IT FINALLY ARRIVED HERE.

>> WE'RE GETTING A TWO-DAY TASTE OF THIS INCREDIBLE HEAT BUBBLE.

THIS IS A FOUR SIGMA EVENT.

FOUR TIMES THE NORMAL.

DEPARTURE THAT HAPPENS ONCE EVERY MAYBE 10 OR 15,000 YEARS.

AND ACCORDING TO CLIMATE CENTRAL, A WARMER CLIMATE BACKGROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER, MADE THIS FIVE TIMES MORE LIKELY.

110 IN ARIZONA YESTERDAY.

JUST CRAZY RECORDS.

HUNDREDS OF RECORDS BEING DEMOLISHED.

THERE'S NO SNOW COVER LEFT IN THE WESTERN U.S.

PARTS OF NEBRASKA, 800,000 -- I BELIEVE 800,000 ACRES UP IN SMOKE, BIGGER THAN THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF RHODE ISLAND.

SO FOR ME, A LOT OF FLASHING YELLOW LIGHTS.

WHEN YOU GET THESE HEAT SPIKES, THESE HEAT BUBBLES EARLY IN THE WARM SEASON, IT USUALLY PORTENDS AN UNUSUALLY HOT AND RY SUMMER, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST.

I'M WORRIED ABOUT MASSIVE FIRES OUT WEST.

OF AND I KNOW IT SOUNDS RIDICULOUS TO BE TALKING ABOUT THAT.

BUT THERE'S PRECEDENT.

PAST COUPLE OF YEARS, WHETHER IT'S BRITISH COLUMBIA, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, YOU ET THESE HEAT WAVES EARLY IN THE SEASON, IT DRIES THINGS OUT.

AND THE FIRES THAT FORM NATURALLY ARE OFTEN BIGGER, BURNING STRONGER, AND LONGER IMPACTING MORE PEOPLE.

AND I WORRY ABOUT WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

BUT I THINK IT'S -- MY GUT, MY SPIEDDY SENSE IS IT'S GOING TO BE HOTTER THAN NORMAL SUMMER HERE.

>> Cathy: OU JUST TOLD ME, MARK SEELEY, WHICH TOTALLY MISSED THAT LAST WEEK, NOAA MENTIONED THAT WE'RE GOING HIS TO SEE HE WILL INI DON'T COMING UP.

>> AND NOW THEY'RE FORECASTING -- OR MOST OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TRANSITION INTO EL NINO AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY WE'LL NOT ONLY MIGRATE TO AN EL NINO EPISODE BUT BY THE END OF THE SUMMER MAYBE A SUPER EL NINO EPISODE.

>> Cathy: HOW WOULD PEOPLE EXPERIENCE A SUPER EL NINO?

>> WELL, AS PAUL'S ALREADY ALLUDED TO, IT COULD AMPLIFY IF WE DO GO INTO A WARM SPELL HERE THAT'S A PROTRACTED WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL.

WHICH, BY THE WAY, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FOR SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER SO FAR IN MINNESOTA.

ALREADY.

THAT COULD BE FURTHER AMPLIFIED AS WE GET DEEPER IN THE YEAR AS A SUPER HE THE YEAR AS A SUPER H EL NINO SETTLES IN.

>> Cathy: SO BIG HEAT WAVES.

>> WELL, I THINK YOU INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT WAVES, EVEN IMPACTING MINNESOTA.

BUT SOME OF THE EXPERTS, I'M NOT AN EXPERT ON EL NINO, BUT THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW ARE COMPARING THIS TO 2016, SO THE BIGGEST EL NINO IN TEN YEARS, POSSIBLY THE BIGGEST SINCE '97, '98, WHICH WAS THE MOTHER OF ALL NINOS, THAT BLEEDS MORE WARMTH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND, SO, -- BUT FOR ME, THE GOOD NEWS, WE SEEM TO BE HEADING INTO A WETTER PATTERN, NOAA PREDICTING THAT THE DROUGHT UP NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA SHOULD EASE DURING THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.

BUT, YOU KNOW, IS IT GOING TO BE A STINKING HOT SUMMER?

I THINK SO.

>> Eric: YOU GUYS GOT A OT OF POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH.

>> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> Eric: THANK YOU.