>> Cathy: WAIT, TWO INCHES IN 1991 IN DULUTH?

WHAT THE HECK ABOUT THAT SNOW.

IT'S BEEN ALMOST TWO MONTHS SINCE WE LAST VISITED WITH OUR NEXT GUEST.

HOT DRY WEATHER AND DEEPENING DROUGHT WERE TOP OF MIND THEN.

BOTH STILL ARE BUT WE CAN ALSO ADD THE UPCOMING SUPER EL NINO TO THE LIZ.

WHEN PAUL DOUGLAS IS NOT JOINING HERE IN STUDIO B YOU CAN CATCH HIS PREDICTIONS IN THE STAR TRIBUNE, HE ALSO RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY CALLED PRAEDICTIX.

RAIN, IT'S RAINING HARD IN PLACES THAT DON'T NEED THE RAIN.

>> I KNOW, STOP THE PRESSES.

BREAKING NEWS!

>> Cathy: GREAT NEWS FOR SOME PLACES.

>> YEAH, IT TAKES MONTHS TO GET INTO A DROUGHT, IT'S GOING TO TAKE MONTHS, MAYBE A YEAR TO PULL OUT OF THE DROUGHT.

I'M RELIEVED IT CAN STILL RAIN HERE.

THE BIG HEADLINE DURING EL NINO IS WE TEND TO HAVE SOMEWHAT DRYER WINTERS, MOST OF THE BIG STORMS ARE SOUTH.

THIS IS NOT GARDEN VARIETY EL NINO, THIS COULD BE A GODZILLA EL NINO.

>> Cathy: WHAT?

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

>> DON'T BE AFRAID.

WELL, BE A LITTLE AFRAID.

IT MEANS, LOOK, WE'VE HAD EL EL NINOs SINCE WE'VE HAD AN ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANS BUT THE ONE THAT'S BREWING SURVIVOR HISTORIC.

STRONGER THAN ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN BEFORE AND THIS IS UNREALISTIC, GODZILLA, EVEN OFF THE COAST OF L.A.

WOULD NOT BE WEARING DESIGNER SUNGLASSES.

[ LAUGHTER ] SO WHAT HAPPENS?

USUALLY EL NINOs EAD TO MILDER WINTERS, MORE MILD PACIFIC AIR, LONGER FOR MINNESOTA, A FEW ACTOR SLAPS BUT NOT AS MANY AS USUAL.

LESS SNOW FOR MOST EL NINOs AND MORE GLAZE ICE, MORE RAIN MIDWINTER, MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

>> Cathy: UGH.

>> WE'LL SEE.

ACCORDING TO ZEKE HOUSEFATHER, A CLIMATE SCIENTIST, WHICH ONE IS UNLIKE ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN.

HISTORICALLY WE ARE IN UNCHARTED WATERS, LITERALLY, WARM WATERS IN THE PACIFIC.

THAT SOLID RED LINE IS THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TO DATE.

THE DASHED LINE YOU CAN SEE IT PEAKS RIGHT AROUND NOVEMBER, DECEMBER.

WE CAN SEE THE EFFECTS OF EL NINO.

THOSE OTHER LINES BELOW ARE PREVIOUS SUPER EL NINOs.

SO THIS IS IN A DIFFERENT LEAGUE ON STRONGLY -- ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR WARMER WINTER.

MAYBE DES MOINES WINTER, SOME ARE THINKING EVEN KANSAS CITY WINTER.

TIME WILL TELL.

BUT AGAIN LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE NOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS EL NINOs AND WE'VE HAD THESE EL NINOs AGAIN SINCE WE'VE HAD AN ATMOSPHERE AND OCEANS.

IN FACT, THEY SEEM TO BE GETTING STRONGER.

IF YOU LOOK AT FOSSILIZED CORAL, AND WHO AMONG US HASN'T -- [ LAUGHTER ] IN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS IN THE PACIFIC, THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN DID A STUDY THAT SHOWED A 37% INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST THOUSAND YEARS WITH, FOUR SUPER EL NINOs JUST SINCE 1982.

SO THESE NATURAL PHENOMENAL APPEAR TO BE GETTING STRONGER AND WARMER OVER TIME.

AND CLIMATE CHANGE COULD BE A FACTOR.

WE'VE HAD HOT SUMMERS IN THE PAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE 1930s, DUSTBOWL DAYS, TO THE RIGHT OF THAT GRAPHIC, YEAH, THAT'S CLIMATE CHANGE.

THAT'S THE RESULT OF GREENHOUSE GASES, RERADIATING WARMTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEANS.

WE JUST HAD THE HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD NATIONWIDE.

ESPECIALLY NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE CONSISTENTLY WARMER, HERE'S MORE WATER IN THE AIR, IT DOESN'T GET AS COOL IN THE SUMMER.

FIFTH WARMEST SUMMER IN MINNESOTA.

AND SOME OF THAT WARMTH IS GOING TO BLEED INTO A VERY MILD AUTUMN.

THIS IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST, DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, FIVE, EIGHT, TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

ONE OF MANY DIFFERENT MODELS.

QUITE A BIT COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.

IN TERMS OF MOISTURE, EL NINOs, IT TENDS TO BE WETTER, CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS TO FLORIDA UP AND THE EAST COAST, THEY COULD SEE MORE RAIN AND SNOW.

MOST EL NINOS HERE TEND TO BE A LITTLE BIT DRYER, PARTICIPATION COULD GO EITHER WAY.

HOW MUCH RAIN IS IT GOING TO TAKE?

IN ONE MONTH THE TWIN CITIES ON UP TO DULUTH WOULD NEED TO SEE ABOUT 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE MONTH, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.

IF YOU LOOK AT PREVIOUS EL NINOS THESE ARE SOME OF THE BIG DROUGHTS GOING BACK TO THE 1930s AND I WANT YOU TO LOOK AT THE COLUMN ON THE RIGHT.

IT TOOK AN AVERAGE OF ONE TO TWO YEARS OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TO PULL OUT F THESE DROUGHTS, SO WE CAN'T EXPECT OVERNIGHT RESULTS, BUT AGAIN WITH THIS RECENT STORM, SOME ONE TO THREE-INCH AMOUNTS WHICH IS PUTTING DENTS IN THE DROUGHT, BUT I STILL THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT DROUGHT INTO SPRING OF NEXT YEAR.

>> Eric: EDUCATING AND ENTERTAINING AT THE SAME TIME.

>> WELL, THANK YOU.

>> Eric: