>> CATHY: TEMPERATURES AROUND MINNESOTA YESTERDAY WERE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, INCLUDING RECORD HIGHS OF 48 IN BAUDETTE, 52 IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS, 50 IN PARK RAPIDS, AND 53 IN ST.

CLOUD.

ADD IN TODAY'S RAIN AROUND THE STATE, AND A WHITE CHRISTMAS DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY.

WILL THERE BE SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE NORTH STAR STATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY?

LET'S ASK OUR FRIEND PAUL DOUGLAS.

IN ADDITION TO HIS REGULAR VISITS TO THE "ALMANAC" STUDIOS, PAUL PENS A WEATHER COLUMN FOR THE "STAR TRIBUNE," CAN BE HEARD ON WCCO RADIO, AND HEADS UP HIS VERY OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PRAEDICTIX.

I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT O SAY ANYMORE.

I MEAN, THIS IS WEATHER YOU'D FIND, WHAT, IN OCTOBER?

>> LATE OCTOBER.

>> Cathy: RAIN, YEAH.

>> I'M ENJOYING MARCH A LITTLE BIT OF SLUSH, A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN.

SOME PEOPLE ARE GOLFING.

I SAW A GUY MOARCHING HIS LAWN IN ST. PAUL YESTERDAY.

>> Cathy: STOP THAT.

>> Eric: I WANT THE SCENIC VIEW OF OUR PLACE WITH THE SLIDES.

>> OU WANT THE PICTURES?

>> Eric: I WANT TO SEE HOW BARREN IS LOOKS OUT THERE.

>> MY GREEN-ISH LAWN.

>> Cathy: THAT'S PRETTY GOOD.

>> YEAH.

I DON'T KNOW.

I'M RO-SNOW.

I'M ANTI-30 BELOW.

BUT IT DOES SEEM A LITTLE SURREAL.

TO BE GOING THIS LONG WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

ANYWAY, IF YOU'RE KEEPING SCORE, AND WHO AMONG ISN'T, FOUR AND A HALF INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR.

LAST WINTER TINLT WE AT THIS TIME WE HAD 15 AND A HALF.

AND BY THE WAY, 4.5, THE 35TH LEAST SNOWIEST START TO A TWIN CITIES WINTER.

AND SINCE JULY THE 1ST, BY THE WAY, WE'RE ON TRACK FOR THE THIRD WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.

2023.

AND SINCE J., JULY, THE 1ST, IT HAS IN FACT BEEN THE WARMEST ON RECORD, FOR A LOT OF REASONS.

NOT JUST EL NINO.

THERE'S THE SNOW COVER MAP.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

>> Cathy: OH, MY GOSH.

I DON'T KNOW.

>> YOU WANT TO BUY A GENTLY USED SNOWMOBILE?

I THINK IT'S GOING TO PICK UP.

SOMEHOW MODELS HINTING THAT JANUARY, FEBRUARY, WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

BUT THIS IS CLASSIC EL NINO.

WHICH TENDS TO DIVERT, AT THE DETOUR THE BIG STORMS.

CALIFORNIA.

TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA, AND THEN RIGHT UP THE EAST COAST.

WE'RE SORT OF IN THIS ATMOSPHERIC NO-MAN'S-LAND.

IT'S BEEN A FIRE HOES OF MILD PACIFIC AIR.

NOT JUST FOR THE US.

BUT FOR CANADA.

AND ACCORDING TO N.O.A.A., THIS IS ONE OF THE FIVE STRONGEST EL NINOS SINCE 1950.

SO I WANT TO SHOW YOU THE -- THESE ARE THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.

WHERE YOU SEE THE RED, THAT'S WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

EL NINO, YOU HAVE WARM WATER IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

CHECK OUT 1982.

IMPRESSIVE.

AND THEN COMPARE THAT WITH 2023.

AND, AGAIN, IT'S NOT ONLY EL NINO.

WHICH IS A NATURAL CYCLE.

BUT IT'S ALSO THE BACKGROUND WARMING, THE FACT THAT GLOBALLY, THIS YEAR, ALMOST CERTAINLY THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD.

AND MUCH OF THAT WARMTH WENT INTO THE OCEANS.

NOT JUST THE PACIFIC, BUT EVERY OCEAN BASIN.

NOVEMBER, ACCORDING TO NASA, THE 537TH CONSERVATIVE MONTH WARMER THAN THE 20TH CENTURY AVERAGE.

SO IT'D BE LIKE FLIPPING HEADS 537 TIMES IN A ROW.

YEAH, THE PLANET'S WARMING UP.

IT'S NOT JUST THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE CRYO CRYOSPHERE.

IT'S ALSO THE OCEAN.

SO WE HAVE KIND OF A DOUBLE WHAMMY.

THIS IS FROM CLIMATOLOGIST BRIAN BREAT SCHNEIDER UP N ALASKA AND WHERE YOU SEE THAT BROWN, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, IOWA, NEBRASKA, ILLINOIS, A 50% DROP IN SNOWFALL SINCE 1974.

SO, YEAH, THE WARMTH IS SPILLING DEEPER INTO NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER.

THE LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES TOO WARM ALOFT FOR SNOW HERE IN THE METRO WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN LATE TONIGHT, TOMORROW MORNING.

MAYBE TWO, THREE INCHES OF SLUSH, CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

DULUTH COULD PICK UP MAYBE FOUR OR FIVE INCHES OF SNOW.

THAT'S IT.

BETWEEN NOW AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

BY THE WAY, STATISTICALLY THE ODDS ARE 72% FOR THE TWIN CITIES.

AN INCH OR MORE ON CHRISTMAS MORNING.

THREE OUT OF TEN ON AVERAGE ARE BROWN.

AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE SEVENTH BROWN CHRISTMAS JUST SINCE 2000.

I'M JUST THE MESSENGER.

ARE YOU DREAMING OF A BEIGE CHRISTMAS?

I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE GREEN-IS HSKS IN THE METRO.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AGAIN, LOW 40s.

NEXT WEEKEND, THE WEEKEND BEFORE CHRISTMAS, IT COULD BE LOW TO MID-40s.

SO EVEN IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHATEVER SNOW FALLS TONIGHT, I THINK MOST OF THAT IS GOING TO BE GONE.

>> Eric: IS THE NORTH POLE MELTING?

>> THERE'S LESS ARCTIC ICE OVER THE NORTH POLE.

>> Cathy: ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT SANLT YA?

SANTA?

>> THE ARCTIC IS WARMING THREE TO FOUR TIMES FASTER THAN EVEN WE ARE.

SO, YEAH, THERE'S JUST LESS ICE.

BUT EVEN IF IT RAINS CHRISTMAS EVE, IT'S OKAY.

ERIC.

>> Eric: OH, GOD.

>> SANTA HAS "RAIN-DEER."

>> Eric: LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, HE'S HERE ALL WEEK!

TRY THE VEAL?