
Week in Review: Assessing the Potential Local Impact of Trump’s 2nd Term
11/29/2024 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions
Watch the Nov. 29, 2024, episode of "Week in Review."
Is he playing turkey — or serious? The potential local impact of Trump’s gambit on tariffs. And what has to happen before the year ends.
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Week in Review: Assessing the Potential Local Impact of Trump’s 2nd Term
11/29/2024 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions
Is he playing turkey — or serious? The potential local impact of Trump’s gambit on tariffs. And what has to happen before the year ends.
Problems playing video? | Closed Captioning Feedback
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Learn Moreabout PBS online sponsorship>> Hey, everyone, thanks for joining us on this special edition of the Week in review.
I'm Amanda Hope you had a very happy Thanksgiving on tonight's program.
We're looking to the future and what a potential impact.
A second Trump administration could have on Illinois.
He could be playing chicken turkey.
But President elect Donald Trump says your parents coming with the nation's top trading partners day one.
>> I said I'm gonna put 10200 300.
I'm going to put highest half and issue meaning I'm going to stop them from ever selling a car engine edges.
>> What that could mean for the local economy.
Chicago also see an impact if Trump's orders Ares plans come to fruition.
>> There is going to be mass deportation.
Because we just for some as illegal immigration crisis on the board, right?
Illinois leaders are preparing when it comes to immigration, abortion and the environment.
>> Illinois will continue to be a refuge for those whose rights are being denied elsewhere.
Women seeking reproductive health care.
Immigrant searching to work hard for a better life.
Lgbtq Americans looking for welcome and protection.
>> Meanwhile, Chicago has a month left to get a budget passed.
>> And now to our week in review Thanksgiving panel.
Joining us are some very familiar and fabulous faces.
We've Turkey out the team up either.
Sharon, Nick Blumberg Patty, what Lee and Joanna Hernandez, we should also note, by the way, that we are recording this program just ahead of the holiday.
Let's get to it because by the time this airs of folks are going to presumably be having their credit cards and wallets out Black Friday, small Saturday shopping.
And this comes as President elect Trump has promised to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China right at the start of his presidency.
Nick, if he does do this, what impact is that going to have in Illinois?
>> Well, the concern, you know, on a day-to-day basis for the to in Black Friday shopping or who are just back from it is that it's going to make a lot of everyday consumer goods.
A lot more expensive, but it could have also, you know, some pretty significant impact on some of the big industries here in Illinois.
You know, there's the expectation that, you know, car assembly plants that that we have, you know, several of here in Illinois and throughout the Midwest, you know that it's going to be more expensive for carmakers that, you know, auto stocks have seen, you know, some tumbles after these announcements after these sorts of threats.
You know, there's also the threat of something like a retaliatory tariff.
You know, during the first Trump administration, China put a tariff on soybeans and Illinois is regularly the most productive soybean grower in the United You know, it's not just a question of do things become more expensive.
It's also a question of do you know, Illinois do you know that is the agriculture, you know, kind of get host in the process here, Well, in there's such a rolling impact because, of course, if you have fewer people, perhaps buying cars because they can't comes with talks either.
I going to say that Chicago could also be at sort of the worst case scenario for gas prices rising because a lot of oil that is transformed into gasoline and then sold in Chicago comes from Canada, which means that that would be a more expensive process.
If those tariffs do go into effect.
And that, of course, will hit people squarely in the pocket book because you know that they as the economists say the demand for gas is inelastic because you have to get you have to get to work.
You have to get your kids to school.
So that could be a big right away impact person.
I want to mention that Mexico or the U.S. has a big motor company in Mexico.
>> So what is what would that look like?
I mean, the president called a Shawn Vaughn.
She's even said, okay, put a tariff.
I'm gonna put a tariff back on And she's even mention that.
What's the point of putting a tariff on a company like a mortar company that's been in Mexico for 80 years.
You're going cause inflation.
You're going to cause loss of jobs for the United States and Mexico.
So I think to Nick's point what we learned in the pandemic to was that global supply chain and like you were mentioning, so many of the parts of the components.
>> For what we think of as American made products are coming from overseas.
So.
>> How does that embolden the UN?
And there's someone in the U.S. but the parts are coming from someplace else.
So how does that work?
It'll be interesting as well because, you know, the president has some authority to essentially unilaterally impose tariffs, you know, for national security reasons, other justification, things like that.
But there are folks in Congress, including Republicans who have talked over the years about reining that authority.
And it'll be interesting to see whether if these tariffs go into place, if some of, you know, Illinois is Congress, people, even the Republican Congress, people say, hey, slow down.
>> This is not actually helping a lot of the folks who helped put Trump back in office.
To that end, we know that Trump was elected in part because Americans so frustrated about inflation just.
>> The price of going shopping, buying eggs, buying a car.
What impact and why would he pursuing this if he was elected on the basis promising that he was going to bring down inflation when tariffs, it seems are going to it from all economists predictions do the very opposite.
Well, it is a best case scenario for a tariff is that encourages companies to bring manufacturing back into the United States.
And the idea is that if that's too expensive.
>> To bring manufactured goods into the country, companies will just decide to make them here.
And that will sort of set off what they hope will be a virtuous circle of prices soar just, you know, remaining stable, but more jobs being created.
it's just not clear that that is how this all works out.
temperatures soon have a factory, right and made good to me.
But there may be short-term pain.
Long-term What we've also heard the president-elect say that China and Mexico and Canada would pay these tariffs.
And that's just not how it works.
These are not sort of charges that one country makes to another country.
It's what you charge companies to bring their goods into the country now you know, not in political important, but if it costs me more to bring something to sell in America, I'm going to charge Americans more to cover those costs because not in the business of losing money.
At least I don't think I would be if I hers and I think you'd be pretty.
Yeah.
So there are a lot of unknowns.
And of course, we're back in this place where we were at the beginning of 2017 where everybody is not quite sure if we should take the president-elect seriously or literally or say he could just be talking once it into a factor, then it's like, oh, that didn't do what I thought it would.
unpopular.
>> I roll it back.
And but like, you know what you are saying about, it's not just going to be Canadian companies are Mexican companies.
I just heard.
>> You know, the president of CEO of Ikea saying these tariffs now, you know, we could be starting to have to charge more.
>> Yeah.
One of the things we've heard from, you know, the presumptive Commerce secretary nominee is that these can be, you know, both a source of revenue, this this extra import tax as well as a bargaining chip.
But always the question with bargaining is okay.
What do you hope to achieve here?
If it's that, you know, you're damaging relationships with our, you know, to close trading partners with whom we share a border.
You know, if you're putting these things into place the potentially have, as you say, you know, long-term game, but short-term pain, you know, does that damage you elect really does that damage?
You know, the the you know, or at least complicate the United States position on the world stage, though, it could be a bargaining chip, but we don't necessarily have a clear idea of what the strategy is.
known in some more on the impact on Illinois because something the Illinois has been a lot of money.
>> In on is the electric vehicle industry really trying to pump it up manufacturing here and sort of related to that era questionnaire, at least tangentially.
So is that the president-elect wants to the federal tax credits, the co 2 folks fi in EV, what impact could that have on companies such as review?
>> Well, you could see at least in the short term sort of a run on electric vehicles.
There's been some pretty good reporting done that folks are really interested right now in buying an EV and taking advantage of that tax credit.
So but want you can't.
Yeah, exactly, but absolutely.
If you know, if demand is diminished because folks aren't getting that 7500 bucks, you know, that could, you know, certainly have some 10 stream effects on Rivian.
There's also the question of, you know, some of the environmental regulations on EV is which, you know, Trump has said he wants to roll back these kind of Biden era efficiency standards which have been meant to, you know, make you know, car manufacturers, push them towards the V's, push them towards cleaner vehicles.
Trump wants to roll that back.
Interestingly, the auto industry has sort of said like, look, we need stability.
We need certainty we've already invested.
changes, Patty.
almost everything, though.
When you think about this and I've been thinking about this a lot in terms of climate change in the environment and just kind of the whiplash effect that people are having and then you can't plan.
It's.
>> You know one administration, it's this.
The other one, your swing, the appetite, waiting really chaos.
You know, I'm thinking about something like let's say the EPA and now they're talking about wanting to get the EPA again.
You got it.
You lose everybody.
Then you've got a bunch of people who need to come up to speed really quickly.
And then you got it again.
And it's just you're losing institutional knowledge.
You're just constantly.
Nobody knows which way the wind is blowing.
It's just kind of too much chaos.
But in terms of electric vehicles, have we heard is Illinois going to try to do like what California did wearing?
Let's put this in place and we'll give you.
But does Illinois.
does have some credits, but more money or you're having.
And I think in it to this in just a bit.
effect.
Let's go there right now in terms of >> the finances that the state and the city depend on the federal Illinois already actually giving some tax credits for electric vehicle purpose should purchases.
But does it perhaps have the money to make up what federal legislation calls for?
And so in general, we have the expectation from the governor that Trump is going to target Chicago, Illinois, some of these more democratic lead states in cities.
How could Trump make things difficult for Chicagoans are there's really just a plethora of ways that he could make Chicago's life harder.
So Chicago relies on federal grants in any number of ways.
>> They use federal grants to pay for police.
They use federal grants to fund affordable housing.
They use federal grants to improve roads and bridges and all sorts of certain infrastructure.
Now the Trump administration during his first term tried to do something very similar.
They said, look, if you don't revoke your self proclaimed Sanctuary City status, we're going to take these law enforcement grants that you give away and that ultimately the city sued the federal government over that.
That case went all the way up to the Supreme Court and the city one.
So there are some protections sort of still in place left over from that court fight.
But that was not.
So that was sort of a halting effort.
And we heard the newly appointed foreigners are saying that they were going to launch the mass deportation issue.
And there's really no way to do that without targeting cities like Chicago, New York City, Denver or Los Angeles.
And to do that, you're going to run directly into governors like JB Pritzker and mayors like Brendan Johnson who have said we will protect our residents.
Whether or not they are undocumented.
How does that complicate things as you have both Chicago and then the state soon thereafter having budget discussions, what can they count on from the federal government?
Nothing.
Yeah.
>> Yeah.
I mean, I was actually doing kind of a deep dive into some of the environmental funding in and it's the same thing that the federal government does.
A lot of matching grants for a lot of habitat restoration projects or, you know, cleaning up brownfield and things like that.
And a lot of times it's.
>> You know, you come with this much money will match with this much money.
I don't know how many environmental organizations have the funds to do.
A lot of the things that we would be surprised have had federal dollars attached to them.
You look at that beautiful restoration of, you know, Illinois Beach State Park or the Wildlife corridor in Chicago like there's federal dollars so many places.
And if you decide to make some of that go away.
But I would say in the case of I was thinking about the Great Lakes, you have states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Indiana and that are very important electorally.
So do you want to sort of Kyiv off those states and maybe Illinois kind of with our bodies there.
And think, you know, I wonder feet, you know, that's what I wonder if he can do that.
I mean, just thinking about Lake.
>> Of withholding federal funds rate, especially when the Trump administration, the transitions transition in basically say we're going to hold the largest deportation of the country has seen.
So let's say, like the steak Chicago Governor Pritzker and they are like, hey, we're not going to help you.
What is that going to look like?
Can they withhold these federal funds?
It's an open question.
And I think that the other sort of potential that, you know, could sort of protect Illinois and protect Chicago is that the Republicans only have the narrowest of margins in the House, which means that even a single Republican you know, not voting for it could sort war efforts to sort of past sort of a purely Republican piece of legislation.
And of course, that the Democrats can still filibuster in the Senate, which means there will have to be some level of compromise on legislation.
The issue is what Trump can do unilaterally through executive order.
And it's just not clear sort of how far the courts will allow the him to push those boundaries, sort of what will be uphold and honestly, what will be the collateral damage.
In the meantime, and they're also potentially backstops in place, depending on, you know, the source of the federal funding, how it flows through.
A lot of this money goes directly to states.
It's, you know, so.
>> It's all these different sorts of programs where it's a lot of doubt based on need or based on population, depending on what formula that has long been in play.
Exactly.
And then there's also the Congress because, you know, we talk about federal dollars as though it's, you know, sort of floating out there in the ether federal dollars are our tax dollars.
>> And they flow through back to lawmakers, states and You know, even Republican lawmakers, there are plenty of federal grant programs that they will defend it just But if you know, if there's a program that helps build a new bridge or or Paiva, you know, a highway in there, you know, home state or district, they're likely going to be in favor of that because it is of benefit to their constituents.
It benefits the local economy.
So that's a potential backstop there as well, especially with those super majorities.
you do have, minority of Illinois's delegation that goes to DC made up of members of Trump's own party.
Just 3 members.
>> So, Nick, what can you share their in terms of how important they might be in bringing home money to the state.
these are all, by the way, folks that represents more the southern part of the region.
So what does that mean for residents of Chicago and the suburbs?
Well, I think again, sort of an open question because if you're you know, if you're the 3 Republican members of the Illinois delegation, yet they are likely to be may be talking again about tariffs.
>> Pushing back on some of those ideas because a lot of their constituents are in agriculture and rely on things like growing soybeans for you know, to to get by.
You know, there's also the question of, you know, Representative Mary Miller is aligned with the far-right Freedom Caucus, which was and align closely with Trump.
Exactly.
But, you know, the Freedom Caucus was a thorn in the side of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy eventually helped lead to his ouster.
They've been a thorn in the side of current House Speaker Mike Johnson.
So there's both the question of, you know, can some of these folks push back on, you know, initiatives from the Trump administration that they see as damaging to their constituents, they could be if they are successfully, you know, those votes are successfully whip.
They could be a part of that very narrow majority.
It right now.
It's looking like the Democrats have picked up just 2 seats in the eating into that even further.
And yet it's a potential that they could play or at least, you know, one of them could play an obstructionist role in the Congress.
You we touch briefly on this admission of nasty part Haitian is you noted the president elect has promised >> the largest mass deportation in history.
When you are doing reporting, what are you hearing from Chicago residents about I think there's there's so many different opinions.
And I think the main thing to that I find surprising is obviously we know there has been an uptick of Latino supporters who >> support Trump, right?
And it's so interesting that I had a recent conversation with somebody he's been here for a year.
He's from Venezuela.
He's a Venezuelan refugee and he was so adamant that Trump was only going to send back criminals with criminal records.
So I think there's like this new message that he is only going to be targeting people of criminal records, but they've never set that.
They haven't ruled out sending separating families or sending, you know, children back or separated from their families.
But I think that's like the really interesting notion that's happening right now with the people who support Trump and the people who are like immigration advocates.
Lawyers were trying to prepare for what this appreciate and making of will.
Many of them are talking to their clients, of course, and workshops really trying to make the people in Chicago are in Illinois's feel comfortable with understanding what's, you know, their rights.
And that's very important.
I think that's something that we kind of saw back in 2017, we saw ICE raids.
We saw families variant tear it apart.
We know what that looks like.
So I think at this moment they're preparing for that and really making sure that people are empowered and know their rights.
And Patty, you also touched earlier on the environment.
But I want to go back to that because as as our guru of all things that the president, of course, he's gone back to that chant that we heard from him when he first was making a run for the White House of >> Drill, baby drill.
What impacts things like that have on jury.
Even that's of course, far away from Illinois.
But are you looking at what could happen say in the Great Lakes turnover at the EPA?
I mean, again, they they're sort of the overarching organization over all this money that flows into Great Lakes takes state.
So you wonder about what happens with protections for threatened or invasive species, you know, but >> I would have to say even when you have administration's like in Illinois that, you know, skew heavily Democratic, that doesn't mean that we didn't still destroyed bubble Prairie.
>> To, you know, promote airport expansion.
So I feel like environmental advocates and advocates are used to constantly having to fight for nature.
So whether it's rolling back regulations on pollutants or, you know, narrowing the definition of what a wetland can be considered like there.
It's not like my inbox over the last 4 years has constantly been flooded action alerts.
You know, it's our where's the Bears?
Gonna build their new stadium.
It's just like kind of constant.
But I think the concern is that, you know, there's no break, no, no brake pedal.
gloves are off.
Everything is just freeing clear to to take us backwards.
And, you know, I would say that even globally we're seeing that economic interests constantly take precedence over the environment.
I don't think anybody is really making a whole ton of progress.
Ward cutting their emissions and, you know, making those goals that was going to be for 2030, even 35 50.
So I think the concern is that we're just never making that forward progress that we need.
Every time you take a tiny inched forward, it's a bigger step backward.
So I think those some of the biggest concerns that we have conservation organizations in the Chicago region like people here love their ego reserves.
They're very You know, they get the job done.
But unfortunately, for too long, we have been relying on nonprofits, volunteers to maintain some of our best natural resources.
And it just gets exhausting.
>> And, you know, I want to move on now to we've talked about the election, of course, and we know that Trump is going to be in the White House come January, but we also finally have election results finalized from this city of Chicago.
For example, in they are telling they are.
So for the first time Republican won a Chicago Ward.
The 41st word on the very northwest corner of the city.
Trump won by less than 2 percentage about the margin nationally in the popular vote.
>> And I think it's an indication that in those sort of people who are sort of moving perhaps a little bit from the center to the center.
Right.
I think the larger story is the drop in turnout.
And if you talk about it was a drop in turnout, you know, you're talking about fewer Democratic voters coming out.
And I think that was really the tale of the Chicago election results.
And, you know, so back 4 years ago, it was almost more than 74% of the vote this year.
It was less than 70% of the votes.
And that is, you know, 10's of thousands of people who decided not to vote.
And I think something that the Democratic Party locally and nationally and trying to figure out is why didn't those people come out to vote and that meant that in wards like the 22nd Ward and the 25th Ward, you saw sort Trump expand his margin over over the 2020 vote.
The question that I don't know the answer to is does indicate a rising level of support for Trump or is it because fewer Democratic voters came out?
And I think we have to be very careful when we sort draw those conclusions because I think if you are sort of a political operative or if you're somebody who's interested, you would tend sort of address those problems differently.
And I think that there's a great peril that both parties, both Republicans and Democrats, will learn the wrong lessons from and I think because, you know, it's dangerous, as you know, join to say, well, there's been a huge surge of support for Trump among Latino Chicagoans.
Well, certainly the the margin is different, right?
But what does that actually telling And does that mean that they favor sort of a tough immigration of the Ryan can get at the what you know, how they voted, but the why and that for years to figure this out we have about a minute left and I want to get to you know, we have a minute left in the show.
But a month left of 2024.
>> So what has to happen still in this calendar year?
Nick, I'm going to begin with you.
>> It's not quite by the end of the calendar year necessarily, but we are waiting on final approval for the Red Line extension that the CTA is planning to the far South side.
They need nearly 2 billion dollars in federal money and they are saying they are hurrying to get that done before President Biden leaves office and they some pretty confident Heather.
Chicago needs a budget us a and off the December 31st.
And there is no clear path to an agreement to fill the city's massive budget deficit.
>> So everybody is going to come back on Monday and tried to put their nose to the grindstone the last 10 seconds to either of you something you're looking for me and my so just going to be and how the city continues to mobilize to help the immigration population here.
I mean, again, we have thousands of people besides the 50,000 new arrivals who are here.
We still have thousands of others who are undocumented here been waiting to be citizen.
eyes will be on That is going to be our last word.
Thank you so much.
Yes, we are out of time.
Our thanks to have their sure.
I'm Nick Lambert.
Patty, what Lee and to Joanna Hernandez.
We will be back to wrap things up right after this.
>> Chicago tonight is made possible in part why the Alexander and John Nichols family.
The Pope Brothers Foundation, additional support is provided by.
>> And that is our show for Friday night.
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We are very grateful for all of you.
Now, Patty.
>> wanted to get back to you because we can get to share what you are looking.
think Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funding which is pump like 4 billion dollars into Great Lakes.
Unlike the last 10 years is up for re authorization and it's kind of just sitting there.
So I'll be interested to see if that gets react for like another 5 years.
those are really critical funding.
course the Bears will have played on Thanksgiving Day.
So what about 22 Lauren, the prospects for them moving the stadium?
I mean, is it going to be the Michael Reese hospital site?
Is it going to be a new when bill went to So I mean, when do they have the money and the saying is you say so they can get the Super Bowl, but they also want a lot of money from Springfield and good luck with going to be story 20 the winning track >> Closed captioning is made possible by Robert, a Clipper and Clifford law offices, a Chicago personal injury and wrongful death for that is proud to recognize its 20 attorneys recognized in the

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