Lori Townsend: The demographic landscape is changing in the United States and new data from the 2020 census shows that Alaska is no different.

Our population is growing and is more diverse than ever, what regions of the state are growing the fastest?

And what do the numbers tell us about shifting racial and ethnic trends?

We're discussing census results and what they mean right now on Alaska Insight.

The results of the 2020 Census were initially delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

When they were finally released last month, the numbers painted a vivid picture of shifting demographics in the United States and Alaska.

Alaska Public Media's Adelyn Baxter has our data breakdown.

Unknown: First, here are the major headlines: From 2010 to 2020, Alaska's population increased by about 20,000 to more than 733,000 people.

That makes Alaska the 48th most populated state, moving down one spot in the national ranking ahead of only Vermont and Wyoming now.

This represents a 3.3% growth rate over the last decade, that's less than half the average gross growth rate of 7.4%.

Across the nation overall, we may rank near the bottom in overall population, but we continue to move up the rankings when it comes to diversity.

Alaska is now the 12th most racially and ethnically diverse state in the nation.

That's determined by the likelihood that any two people selected at random will be from different races.

Within the state, the Aleutians East Borough and the Aleutians West Census Area are the most diverse regions.

The share of Alaska's population that identifies as Alaska Native and American Indian grew to nearly 22%.

Like in much of the rest of the country, the share of the population that identifies as Hispanic also grew in Alaska.

It rose to 6.8% in 2020, from 5.5% in 2010.

The proportion that identifies as Asian alone increased to 5.9%.

The Black population fell to 2.8%.

And the Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander population rose slightly to 1.7%.

The share of Alaska's population that identifies as two or more races also increased, while Alaska's white population declined by more than 10%.

In terms of geographic distribution, the Matanuska-Sustina Borough saw significant growth -- a more than 18,000 person increase from 2010.

The borough is by far the fastest growing in the state.

Parts of rural Alaska also grew, including the North Slope Borough, which grew by nearly 15%, and the Kusilvak Census Area, which gained 12%.

Meanwhile, Alaska's largest city Anchorage lost 579 residents, the Interior's population also decreased and Southeast saw a slight boost.

So Lori, overall, Alaska's population continues to grow and diversify, but certain areas of the state are seeing more growth than others.

Lori Townsend: Thanks for that great breakdown Adelyn.

There's a lot to unpack in the census information and here to help us understand what the numbers mean for Alaska is David Howell.

David is the head demographer for the State of Alaska.

Also joining us is Veri di Suvero, de Severo, di Soovio.

Did I get that right, I hope I did.

Veri is the executive director of the Alaska Public Interest Research Group or AKPIRG.

Hello, David and Veri thanks for joining me and Veri, please, how bad did I destroy your name there?

Unknown: I am so happy to be here.

Thank you and you did the French pronunciation.

The Italian pronunciation is di Suvero.

Lori Townsend: I will remember I will endeavor to remember that.

All right.

Thank you, David.

Before we dive into more of the findings, we know that the pandemic greatly complicated the efforts to get the count done.

So overall, how thorough do you think it ultimately was?

Unknown: I think it was very thorough.

There, the Census Bureau does a post enumeration survey that will give us a little bit more insight into out went.

But overall, it seems like the operations went off, not as planned because obviously you can't plan for a pandemic, but the follow up operations seem to have been carried out fully.

Lori Townsend: All right.

Alaska often bucks trends that are unfolding in other parts of the nation and some of the census information for our state seems to support that, for example, Adelyn's reporting that we just heard notes that Alaska's population grew at a much slower rate, less than half of the national trend.

What was the growth rate in the last census?

And do you have any information about why we're growing more slowly?

Unknown: Well, it's tough to say, between 2000 and 2010, we actually grew by about 80,000 people, or a growth rate of 13%.

So quite a bit faster than this decade.

A major factor for us is the economy down South was doing poorly early on this decade.

And we saw a lot of net positive migration early in the decade.

But then once the economy kind of fired back up down South, we started to have negative net migration.

So we think the state topped out by around 740,000, in the mid decade around 2016.

But then that migration turned negative and we actually started losing population.

And this has happened previously in the past that when Lower 48's economy is booming, and ours is struggling a little bit, we see a negative net migration.

Lori Townsend: Yes, and kind of following up there.

We have heard that we're losing residents, we've had more outflow than in that doesn't square with the census finding.

So help us understand the difference in annual estimates versus the census count that happens every 10 years.

Unknown: Right.

So the census occurs every 10 years, obviously.

But then in between, we create population estimates based on a series of data sources, but in Alaska, our primary data source is the Permanent Fund Dividend applications, and so we are very lucky compared to other states that we have this timely source of data in the PFD.

We also have births and deaths records coming from our Vital Stats Department, as well as, as well as IRS records to kind of compare with the PFD applications to check on migration.

But the census allows us to kind of reset and compare our methods or reevaluate our methods and see what we were doing well, and, you know, see what we can improve on.

Lori Townsend: All right, thank you, David.

I want to turn to you very now.

Veri what information do you use at AKPIRG, Alaska Public Interest Research Group, from the census?

And how is it used?

Today, the Census Bureau released information related to housing demographics, is that an area that you'll dig in on and please kind of let us know what's what is useful information from AKPIRG's perspective?

Unknown: Yeah, thank you so much, Lori.

You know, I think that we did a lot of work actually, to make sure that the census was answered.

And so from a public interest and consumer advocacy standpoint, which is really what AKPIRG does it's, you know, looking at both how can we make sure that everyone's participating in the census to be counted to have the best numbers possible?

And then also, then, once the census has been answered, and we do have more of that information, you know, it affects everything.

So housing numbers are absolutely something that we're going to be digging into, you know, looking at how housing trends, how and how the, you know, obviously, the pandemic has affected, you know, the housing market around the state is, is interacting with those numbers.

And in addition to that, you know, there's a lot of lending patterns, a lot of, you know, financial issues around consumers that we're going to be looking into as well.

And then especially, you know, looking at access issues.

So language access is a big piece of our work, we actually helped translate the census into Alaska Native languages for the first time ever, and also provided other world languages, or other information in world languages for the census.

And so, you know, not only looking at the fact that we knew those languages would be needed, but also now looking to see where in other parts of life, you know, in economic growth, and in other pieces of our of our society where that language access is also going to be needed.

Lori Townsend: And when you're looking at things like housing demographics and lending patterns, are you specifically looking for discriminatory practices?

Or what is it that you're seeking to better understand?

And then how will you use that information to work with lawmakers?

Or maybe if there's a policy issue that needs to be addressed?

Unknown: Yeah, I mean, that's a great question.

I think the the great thing about data is that it can really tell a story and also, it provides you with a really good starting place.

So for one example, we do a lot of work around payday lending.

And payday lending is a specific type of loan that you can get for a short time, and the interest rates can be pretty high.

So in Alaska, a 14 day loan for $100 is 521% interest rate, which is really high.

And so one of the things that we do is we look across, you know, what, what geographies are mostly taking out fees loans versus other loans that may have a lower interest rate.

And also, are there any sort of racial discrimination patterns, or patterns where veterans are taking out these loans at higher rates than civilians, which it turns out, communities of color, low income communities, and veterans tend to take out or tend to get payday loans at higher rates.

So the census helps inform all of that work that we do, which then helps provide a good sound basis when we are talking to policymakers.

Lori Townsend: Really important, and good to know.

Thank you so much.

David, let's turn back to you.

Now, I want you to walk us through what you found most interesting about Alaska's census data.

But first, this year, the census form allowed for up to six different ethnic categories to be checked, whereas in the past, only two were allowed.

How does this affect the results?

And, and also, how do you think it affects participation?

Do you know if more people engaged because of these larger selection options?

Unknown: Yeah, they definitely changed the race, race and ethnicity questions this year.

And this was the first year that the white and Black race were able to write in responses.

And it seems like they definitely did write in responses.

This has led to the decline in the white alone population, as well as the Black alone population.

In the past, other races were allowed to write things in, but not the white and Black population, which is good and allows people to kind of identify themselves more how they see themselves.

But as far as people certainly marked more races, and that could be a shifting demographic in Alaska, and that we have a, you know, Baby Boomers are moving out and older people tend to just like one race, and then we have younger people coming in.

And so younger people tend to see themselves more diversely, than the older cohorts.

Lori Townsend: Do you, do you think that this increase in categories?

What do you think about it?

Do you think it could expand again, or at some point do the percentages just become too small to be meaningful?

Unknown: That's a great question.

They seem to change them every couple of decades.

So I could definitely see them expanding.

I don't know, they've talked about using Hispanic as a race in the past, but that seems to have kind of moved away from that.

And just kind of diversifying that Hispanic ethnicity question to allow for more options.

But it's, it's interesting on our end, because it makes some of the data less comparable.

So comparing race alone between 2010 and 2020.

It's a little different, because the question has changed so much.

So for data consistency, it's can be a little frustrating, but I could definitely see them expanding it even farther.

Lori Townsend: All right.

Veri, your thoughts here?

Do you think there should be more options?

What are your thoughts about this ability to select more ethnicities?

And and what would you like to see going forward as far as choice?

Unknown: Yeah, that's, it's a great question.

And you know, there is that balance of making sure that there's useful aggregate data, and then the data for people to actually feel represented in who they are.

And I know, as we were working on the census, we got a lot of those questions, trying to help people understand, you know, what to answer on their form.

And so one of the huge categories that I know there's a lot of advocacy around and a push to expand to as Middle Eastern.

Right now, Middle Eastern communities and individuals are counted as white, which a lot of groups and people believe doesn't represent, you know, their identities and also their position and power and representation in our society.

And so, you know, I think that's just one example of where hopefully, the Census Bureau will be working with, you know, communities to figure out what options really do represent who they are and how they see themselves.

Lori Townsend: Does it feel sort of like the census is still kind of catching up to how rapidly we're becoming much more diverse and, and, you know, different people are marrying into different ethnicities at a rate that is the census just kind of not catching up as well as it should at this point?

Unknown: Well, it's hard.

I mean, it's hard because everyone's there own person, right?

And so the Census Bureau has a long history and not all of it is a good history.

And so especially when working with Alaska Native communities, you know, there's a lot of a lot of trust repairing that needs to happen.

And so and we saw a lot of that in this past census census, there are some Census Bureau workers who really wanted to make sure that folks knew, you know how to put their their tribe instead of their Alaskan Native Corporation on the census form.

But you know, there's, there's still a long way to go for sure.

As we're making sure that people feel represented in this country.

You know, that's, that's a tall order.

And it's hard to do that in 10 questions.

Lori Townsend: This question might sort of be self evident, just based on what we've been talking about.

But people who identified as white only fell more than 10 percentage points.

Veri, did you find that surprising at all?

And then David will turn back to you.

Unknown: I mean, it's hard to say I'm not, not the demographer.

But I, you know, I think I was really not surprised.

But glad to see that there is a rise in Alaska Native population, since you know, Alaska has always been an Indigenous place.

And, you know, with the rise of people identifying as mixed race and feeling confident, also putting on their forms that they could put more than one race and still be counted in both of those races, as well as mixed race.

I think that the expansion of those categories was really exciting.

And just to specify what I mean by that.

We heard from a lot of people who, especially Alaska Native folks who were, maybe Alaska Native, and then another race, who didn't want to make it seem like they were fewer Alaska Native people in their community by putting mixed race or other.

And so you know, working with the Census Bureau to ensure that if, you know, if I checked white, and then also checked another race, that I that I wouldn't be discounting myself from both categories by putting both.

I think that was really huge.

So I guess I don't have a good answer about the white percentage.

But I think that it does speak to more trust in in sharing more of identities overall.

Lori Townsend: Yeah.

David, pick that up there your thoughts about this percentage point drop?

And does that just seem like it makes sense because people are more comfortable with adding in other ethnicities.

Now?

Unknown: I was actually quite surprised.

I think I triple-checked the numbers with when I realized that the decline and the weight alone population.

People have been able to select multiple races, going back to 2000.

But with this write-in category, you know, as Veri pointed out, you know, people can really identify themselves how they see themselves, which is great.

And so it's, you know, it gives us a better picture of what our society actually looks like.

So I think it's a good thing.

And it's what -- but I was quite surprised by it.

Lori Townsend: Well, that's really interesting.

Let's, let's continue on that we know that ethnic diversity, as we've been talking about, has increased overall, kind of break that down for us, where were some of the bigger gains?

Unknown: So the Alaska Native population in particular gained, as you pointed out, going from 19 to 22%, of the overall population.

And this is not too surprising for us, because they see a lot of growth through what we call a natural increase, where just births outnumber deaths.

And so they have a higher birth rate than Alaska as a whole.

And relatively low net migration rates, about probably lose about half a percent a year to net migration.

So we weren't too surprised to see their steady growth, you know, bump up their percentage of the actual population.

Whereas the Baby Boomer population who moved here in mass in the, you know, late/mid 80s, early 90s, they've kind of reached these retirement ages, where Alaska has always seen losses in population.

And so we're really starting to see them leave the state.

And so that will, you know, kind of lead to a decline in the white population.

Lori Townsend: Following up on, you know, as we were discussing people that identified as Alaska Native only that percentage drop, but certainly it grew in combination with other ethnic ethnicities.

Does this finding square with other ethnic groups as far as increases overall, or maybe including other categories?

Unknown: Yeah, I mean, Alaska has a, you know, a growing Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander community, large Asian communities.

So we're seeing growth in these groups.

And you know, it's not too surprising.

It's kind of stayed on the same course for the last couple of decades.

So not too unexpected there.

Lori Townsend: If this mirrored in national trends as well?

Unknown: Yeah, I'd have to, I don't have the numbers right in front of me.

So I can't say exactly.

But I mean, yeah, the nation as a whole did become much more diverse and will continue to do so as people continue migrating in.

The US as a whole, the birth rates are down quite a bit.

So we will be growing more through migration rather than births in the future.

So that will continue to diversify the country as a whole.

Lori Townsend: The Matanuska-Susitna Borough region saw the biggest population increase, but the Interior lost more than 3000 residents.

What regions of Interior and of the state saw the biggest losses?

Unknown: Fairbanks saw the biggest loss.

And Fairbanks' number it's a little, a little bit to unpack there, because there seemed like there is a slight undercount at the dorms for UAF, so that would account for, you know, around 800 people we think.

And then another thing to factor in is there's a squadron of F35s that recently recently moved to Eielson, but they their movement of the troops got delayed because of COVID.

So they weren't actually counted there for the census, they would have been counted at their previous duty location.

And so now that these airmen are coming in, and they're bringing their families, you know, we'll we think we'll see a bump in the Fairbanks population over the next year or two.

Lori Townsend: What parts of rural Alaska increases?

Unknown: So most of Northern and Western Alaska saw increases.

And this is similar to the Alaska Native population as a whole, not too much migration, high birth rates, so you get a lot of growth through natural increase, which again, is just births outnumbering deaths, and this has just been a steady, you know, just kind of slow growth over the decades.

So not not too surprising.

But the growth definitely jumps out compared to the rest of the state because Anchorage, and Juneau and Fairbanks are somewhat driven by out of state people moving into the state, which we've kind of seen a lack of in the last few years.

Lori Townsend: Anchorage lost some residents, under 600.

That doesn't really seem like a big number for either gain or loss.

But what do you make of that?

And is it dramatically different from the 2010 census?

Unknown: It doesn't, it's not a big loss.

But it is surprising, because Anchorage has grown consistently in the past.

And so that part of it to us was quite surprising.

Well, it wasn't too surprising, because our estimates, we thought that they were down.

And so it kind of backed up what we what we had estimated, but it was definitely surprising, you know, through the decade that they would actually lose population, rather than growing.

Lori Townsend: You mentioned some surprises.

Were there any other big surprises for you in this data that stood out?

Unknown: Yeah, we were surprised to see Haines was down, we're not clear, we're working forward, there's a more detailed release release of data coming with more age breakouts.

Haines is a much older borough, and so we weren't sure if maybe, you know, people snowbird outside of the state, maybe COVID, they didn't come back to Haines in time to be counted in the census.

And maybe they're counted in Arizona or something.

But we won't know that.

We we know that a lot of the loss was in the 18 and above population, but we don't know exactly what ages they are when we get the more detailed release.

If it's a lot of people over the age of 60, then you know, the snowbird theory might actually help water.

But for now, we're just we were surprised to see that it did drop.

Lori Townsend: Veri how about for you, when you look through the data?

Were there surprises that stood out to you that, that were of note?

Unknown: Yeah, I mean, I think one thing that we did look at the Department of Labor estimates, before the census was completed, and the North and Northwest Arctic Boroughs, gained population, I think, about 1000 people, ish.

And I think that was a surprise, which, which we just hadn't expected.

But, you know, I think that the, again, beyond just the numbers, I think the racial diversity piece was not unexpected, since we've worked with a lot of partners, especially, you know, the Alaska Literacy Project and RAIS that works on welcoming immigrants and refugees into Alaska.

So there is sort of a good sense of what languages and communities are immigrating to Alaska.

But seeing that reflected in the data was definitely exciting to see.

Lori Townsend: All right.

Well, thank you so much.

There's so much to unpack and understand about all the census information.

We could keep talking for a long time, but we're out of time.

So Veri and David, thank you so much for being with with me this evening to help us begin to understand what's coming out with this interesting census information.

As you heard this evening, the census is important not only as a reflection of who we are ethnically as Americans and Alaskans, but it's also an important dataset that helps the government know where and how much to invest in roads and other infrastructure.

And in Alaska, although we continue to be on the lower end of the list for overall population, we also continue to shine as one of the top tier states for incredible diversity that brings together a rich blend of cultures and traditions to celebrate and enhance all of our collective lives.

That's it for this edition of Alaska Insight.

Be sure to tune in daily to your local public radio station for Alaska Morning News and Alaska News Nightly every week night.

Be part of important conversations happening on Talk of Alaska every Tuesday morning, and visit our website, alaskapublic.org for breaking news and reports from across the state.

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We'll be back next Friday.

Thanks for joining us this evening.

I'm Lori Townsend.

Good night.