>>> ILLINOIS HAS SEEN 107 TORNADOES IN THE YEAR 2023.

THAT MAKES IT THE STATE WITH THE MOST TORNADOES THIS YEAR.

BUT SCIENTISTS CAUTION THE THOUGHT OF ADDING THE PRAIRIE STATE TO TORNADO ALLEY.

JOINING US TO EXPLAIN WHY THAT IS, ARE COLBY HUNT.

FARM BUREAU PRESENT.

TRENT FORD, ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST AND PAUL SERACA, PROFESSOR OF METEOROLOGY.

WELCOME BACK GENTLEMEN.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

PAUL, WHAT'S YOUR REACTION TO ILLINOIS LEADING THE COUNTRY WITH THE MOST TORNADOES SO FAR THIS YEAR?

>> WELL, BASED ON A LOT OF THINGS THIS YEAR, IT DOESN'T SURPRISE ME.

ILLINOIS IS A STATE THAT GETS VARIETY OF NUMBERS OF TORNADOES.

SOME YEARS ARE VERY LEAN.

AND SOME ARE VERY ABUNDANT.

THIS HAPPENS TO BE ONE OF THEM.

BUT THAT IS ALSO COUPLED WITH OTHER STATES THAT WE NORMALLY THINK OF AS TORNADO ALLEY STATES NOT GETTING MANY TORNADOES.

>> TRENT, WHY CAUTION, THOUGH, THE IDEA OF ILLINOIS BECOMING PART OF WHAT IS TYPICALLY THE STATES THAT ARE TYPICALLY CONSIDERED TORNADO ALLEY?

>> WELL, I MEAN FIRST OF ALL, THE IDEA OF TORNADO ALLEY IS A BIT ANTIQUATED ANYWAY.

MAYBE A BIT OF A MISNOMER.

WHEN IT COMES TO THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADOES, THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDWEST GET A LOT OF TORNADOES AS WELL.

AND ACTUALLY, WHEN WE LOOK AT INJURIES, FATALITIES, THE SOUTHEAST U.S., THINK ABOUT LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, UP TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, LEAD AS FAR AS THE IMPACTS OF TORNADOES.

SO WHEN WE SPOKE TO TORNADO ALLEY, TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, NEBRASKA.

THAT IS WHERE THE BIG WEDGE TORNADOES ARE.

BUT THEY ARE A HAZARD IN THE MIDWEST AS WELL.

>> WHAT DO YOU SAY IS DRIVING THE NUMBER OF TORNADOES WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR, TRENT?

>> SO, THE LARGE NUMBER OF TORNADOES FIRST STARTED OFF IN THE WINTERTIME.

NOW I SAY WE DON'T HAVE A TORNADO SEASON IN ILLINOIS.

BUT PEAK FREQUENCY IS BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE.

BETWEEN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE OFF TIMES FOR TORNADO FREQUENCY.

BUT THIS YEAR WE HAD A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IN JANUARY.

PRETTY HIGH TORNADO FREQUENCY IN FEBRUARY.

AND A HUGE OUTBREAK IN MARCH.

ACTUALLY RECORD-BREAKING FOR MARCH AS FAR AS THE NUMBER OF TORNADOES.

AND THAT JUST CATAPULTED US TO THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR, WE SURPASSED OUR NORMAL AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND 54 TORNADOES.

IN APRIL, MAY, AND JUNE TODAY, AS WELL AS JULY, HAVE BEEN CLOSE IF NOT A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL.

THAT PUTS US UP IN THE TOP THREE TO FIVE AS FAR AS NUMBER OF TORNADOES.

>> YOUR FARM HAS BEEN HIT WITH HIGH WINDS AND STORMS.

TELL US A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED, PLEASE.

>> YEAH, JUNE 29th, WE GOT HIT.

WE LOST SOME GRAIN BINS.

CORN WAS LAID OVER.

A LOT OF HOUSES DAMAGED.

OUR LITTLE TOWN LOST A LOT OF TREES.

IT WAS A PRETTY BIG DEAL.

>> WHAT WOULD YOU SAY, LIKE WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT LOSING GRAIN BINS, LIKE THAT, WHAT IS THE FINANCIAL IMPACT?

WHAT'S THE HIT?

>> SO, TO REPLACE THE TWO GRAIN BINS WE LOST, I FIGURE OUR FARM SUSTAINED ABOUT $400,000 WORTH OF DAMAGE TOTAL.

>> OKAY, PAUL, YOU HAVE ALSO SORT OF CAUTIONED ABOUT HOW WE COUNT A TORNADO.

AND WHAT, THE NUMBER OF TORNADOES THAT ARE SORT OF EF-0.

COUNTING TOWARD THAT TOTAL.

>> RIGHT.

IN THE PAST 15 YEARS, WE HAVE GOTTEN MUCH BETTER AT IDENTIFYING WHAT WE THINK ARE NOW THESE WEAKER TORNADOES.

ESPECIALLY TORNADOES NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL ISOLATED STORMS LIKE WE MAY THINK OF IN THE PLAINS AS TRENT MENTIONED BUT LINES OF STORMS.

AS WE GO INTO JUNE AND JULY, WE START GETTING MORE FREQUENCY OF LINES OF STORMS THAT CREATE THESE, WHAT WE CALL QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TORNADOES.

THEY ARE REALLY HARD TO IDENTIFY.

THEY SPIN UP REALLY QUICKLY.

USUALLY THE WINDS OF THE LINE ITSELF ARE STRONG.

THE TORNADO INCREASES A SMALL REGION OF DAMAGE.

>> OKAY.

TRENT, IS THIS PART OF A LARGER TREND IN THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADOES?

>> WELL IT'S A TOUGH QUESTION.

HISTORICALLY, IF WE GO BACK 40, 50 YEARS AGO, WE UNDERCOUNTED A LOT OF THE SMALLER TORNADOES.

JUST BECAUSE IF THEY WERE OFF SOMEWHERE WE DIDN'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF POPULATION, WE MAY HAVE MISSED THEM.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL RECORD, WE CAN ONLY GO BACK TO MAYBE THE 1980s AND THE 1990s TO SEE ABOUT THE TORNADO FREQUENCY.

SO IT IS REALLY CHALLENGING TO SAY OKAY, WHAT WE ARE SEEING HIGHER FREQUENCY.

I THINK MORE IMPORTANTLY, IF WE GO INTO THE FUTURE, ARE WE GOING TO SEE HIGHER FREQUENCY, THE STATE OF THE ART RESEARCH DONE RIGHT HERE IN ILLINOIS ON THAT, IT DOES SUGGEST THAT WE MAY SEE AN INCREASED FREQUENCY OF AT LEAST TORNADO DAYS.

THESE OUTBREAK DAYS LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR AND A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SPOTS BUT IT IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.

YOU KNOW, NO MATTER WHAT, WE ALWAYS LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE FREQUENCY OF TORNADOES.

BUT AS OUR URBAN AREAS EXPAND, PHYSICALLY, GEOGRAPHICALLY, IT DOES PUT AREAS IN A HIGHER RISK OF BEING HIT BY A TORNADO WITH OR WITHOUT SOME INCREASING TREND.

THAT IS AN IMPORTANT POINT TO MAKE AS WELL.

>> COLBY, YOU MENTIONED THE AMOUNT OF DAMAGE TO THE GRAIN BINS THAT YOU LOST AND SOME STRUCTURES LOST.

WHAT KIND OF IMPACT COULD STORMS LIKE THIS IN THIS PARTICULAR STORM SEASON HAVE ON THE FARMER'S HARVEST?

>> YEAH.

WE WERE FORTUNATE ENOUGH IN A TIME WHERE FARMERS COULD BUY MORE EQUIPMENT.

BUT IT IS TIGHT.

WE ARE STILL UNDER SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES LEFTOVER FROM COVID.

THE CASE MAY BE.

SO REPLACING THOSE STRUCTURES LIKE THE GRAIN BINS WE LOST, THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DELIVERED IN SEPTEMBER.

IF THEY CAN BE PUT UP BY THE TIME THEY COMPLETE HARVEST, THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN.

SO JUST THE TIMING.

GETING THE REPLACEMENT EQUIPMENT IN IS KEY RIGHT NOW.

>> AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR YOU?

WHAT'S THE END RESULT?

>> YOU CAN ALWAYS BORROW NEIGHBOR'S.

I THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO FIND IT.

IF THE BINS DON'T HAVE TO BE CONSTRUCTED, WE CAN DELIVER IT.

JUST, THERE IS SOME PRICING ISSUES WITH THAT.

OR WE'LL FIND A WAY.

>> OKAY.

AND TRENT, WE HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT.

WHAT ROLE DOES CLIMATE CHANGE HAVE IN THIS TORNADO PATTERN?

>> THIS IS THE IDEA OF LOOKING AT PROJECTIONS FORWARD.

IT IS REALLY UNCERTAIN.

THE RESEARCH DOES SUGGEST THAT CLIMATE CHANGE MAY AFFECT TORNADO FREQUENCY AND WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF TORNADO DAYS.

WHETHER THAT MEANS MORE INTENSE TORNADOES OR WEAKER TORNADOES IS STILL UNCLEAR.

BUT THERE'S A LOT MORE RESEARCH TO BE DONE.

TORNADOES ARE HARD TO OBSERVE.

LET ALONE MODEL WITH OUR GIANT GLOBAL MODEL SO THERE IS A LOT MORE WORK THAT NEED TO BE DONE TO BETTER UNDERSTAND AT WHAT RISK WE ARE SEEING WITH THESE INCREASED FREQUENCY AND WHAT RISK WE ARE PUTTING OURSELVES IN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT.