- We're operating in a world where security's paramount.

You need resilience.

You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.

The first way we do that as Canadians is we become an essential trading partner of the United States.

[upbeat theme music] - Hello and welcome to "GZERO World."

I'm Ian Bremmer, and today, we are taking a hard look at three of America's closest allies, France, Britain, and our nice big neighbor to the north.

Yes, I'm talking about you, Canada.

All three are on the verge of transformational political change, and when you put together these snapshots of political turmoil and then add the United States to the mix, you get a broader story about a West in disarray.

How do these political changes impact our ability to confront some of the world's biggest challenges like war in Europe and the Middle East, the AI revolution, and climate change?

My guest today, one of Canada's most interesting men.

Sorry, Jim Carrey.

He's on the short list to become the country's next prime minister.

He holds the unique distinction of having led the central banks in both Canada and England.

He's also the United Nations' special envoy for climate action and finance, and has a lot to say about this moment in politics and how it could literally impact the future of the planet.

The two of us recently caught up in Toronto, and later, a look at some of the most important elections around the world that have already happened, and don't worry.

I've also got your Puppet Regime.

- [Narrator] Prime Minister Narendra Modi!

- Hello, ladies.

- But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

- [Narrator 1] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator 2] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Narrator 1] And by.

- [Narrator 3] Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at cox.career/news.

- [Narrator 1] Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and... [upbeat music] [lively music] - You know that stereotype about Americans being self-absorbed and ignorant of the world around them?

Well, I find it to be as offensive as it is true.

Take, for example, this viral clip of a British comedian asking Americans about the UK's current prime minister.

- I'm asking New Yorkers what they think of Rishi Sunak.

- Of who?

- Of who?

- I would probably say like a chef.

[upbeat music] - [Ian] But Americans would do well to tune into the heaping pile of shepherd's pie that is British politics right now.

In late May, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, yeah, now you know who he is, stepped up to a rain-soaked lectern in front of 10 Downing Street to call for snap parliamentary elections on July the 4th.

- Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future, to decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made or risk going back to square one with no plan and no certainty.

- [Ian] Political analysts and opposition members agree that Sunak's Tory party faces humiliation at the polls and will lose government control to the opposition Labour Party for the first time in 14 years.

Voters are fed up with scandals under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as well as the sky high cost of living, a flailing national health service, and an ongoing migrant crisis.

In short, Britain is facing a political sea change not seen since Brexit, and it's one that even the hapless Labour Party cannot help but capitalize on.

I wish I could say things are better across the channel, but French president Emmanuel Macron is facing his own political catastrophe.

Earlier this month, far-right candidates strongly out-performed in France's European Parliamentary elections, and right after results came in, the French president shocked his country by immediately calling for snap elections in late June and early July.

He's betting that French voters will choose his governing coalition over that of far-right opposition leader Marine Le Pen.

[Emmanuel speaking in French] [Emmanuel continues speaking in French] - [Ian] And closer to home, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's polling numbers are reaching lows that even US President Biden would have a problem with.

Voters are tired of Trudeau's Liberal Party after three scandal-ridden terms in power and after years of sluggish economic growth.

In recent polls, Trudeau trails Conservative opposition leader and populist firebrand Pierre Pollievre by 20 points, and although Trudeau technically still has over a year until he's forced to call an election, once he does so, it's likely to be a grizzly affair.

but getting back to that ugly if accurate American stereotype, why should we care?

Isn't the US election in November the one that decides the fate of the world?

Well, yes and no.

In many respects, the US, of course, is the global leader, but only because of its alliances with Western democracies, not by itself.

If those allies are mired in their own political turmoil, it opens the door for adversaries like China and Russia to step in.

It also means that key global priorities like combating climate change get harder and harder and harder to accomplish.

So, to discuss all this and more, I'm joined now by that Canadian of all trades, Mark Carney.

Here's our conversation from Toronto.

Mark Carney, it's really good to see you.

- It's great to be here, Ian.

- So lots to talk about with you today.

I think of you as a climate guy.

- Yeah.

- But let's start with Europe, because you and I know each other well from your UK central banking days.

- Oh, yes.

A quieter time.

- Yes, and Brexit was not easy to manage.

A lot of people consider it one of the biggest own goals.

Do you now see Macron, Emmanuel Macron, after getting absolutely thumped, his party, historically so, in the European Parliament elections, immediately calls a snap election for his parliament, a very dangerous thing to do, is that on par with what Cameron pulled by saying "I wanna do a Brexit vote"?

- Well, I think, first, you have parliamentary elections and you have parliament for a period of time, and then you have other elections.

that's different from when you have a referendum.

In a referendum, a decision is taken, and you see, for example, in the UK election right now, basically Brexit is not being discussed, you know, because the decision was taken and it's viewed as irrevocable.

We'll see over the fullness of time.

I think what President Macron did, and you'd have a view on this, is he wants to know what the French people want for their government.

As we all know, that sometimes in voting for European elections, you vote for a variety of things.

It can be a protest vote.

It can be specific things at the European level.

It can be directional, whatever.

He'll get a bigger turn-out.

He'll get a very clear mandate for those who come into parliament, and then he will work with whatever the French people deliver.

- But it is possible, of course, that the French people, and, yes, it's a parliamentary vote.

It's different from Europe, but I mean if they return Le Pen's party with a majority, they become prime minister in the French government.

I mean, that's not just a France issue.

That's an EU issue.

- Well, France is an important part of Europe, but France is not Europe, and the system has an ability to bring in different perspectives.

Look, I think, in the end, what the president wants to do, and he's clear about this, is to hear what the French people want, and he has proven time and time again.

I'm an admirer of his.

He's proven time and time again an ability to work with a wide range of partners, so we'll see what kind of partner he gets in the election.

- So I heard you also say, and you just teased it, but you said, look, Brexit is not being discussed right now in the UK election.

It's not a part of it, so we'll see in the fullness of time.

Labour's expected to win in a big way.

- Yeah.

- Coming up, and certainly no surprise there, but assuming that that occurs, do you think that there are bits of Brexit that will be recalibrated in terms of the EU relationship?

- It's not clear.

There are a wide range of aspects of the UK-European relationship which don't work.

There's massive red tape, for example, in agricultural products, massive red tape and delays at the border, the inner workings of a very interconnected financial system, for example.

There's just inefficiencies.

I'll give you another example.

To go to climate, the ETS, which is the carbon market, it used to be one big liquid carbon market.

Now you have two markets.

The UK market is smaller.

It's more volatile.

There's more uncertainty about investment.

You know, it doesn't really make sense.

So there's a range of things that could be made better if the UK government and the European government wanted to work together, and it's all operating in a G-zero world.

You saw this coming, but this is now a reality, and the question is, looking out in this world, who are the more like-minded partners?

One of the assumptions or the assertions underpinning Brexit was that there was going to be an old, open, global, liberal economic order where the UK could, you know, boldly go forth and strike trade deals with China and other emerging economies.

Well, you know, that's not the geopolitics today.

- So you talked a bit about climate, and I want to use the European conversation to move us there because it's not that the Europeans don't care about climate anymore, but security and migration have become much more urgent issues, and the Greens have underperformed in Europe as a consequence of this.

What are the practical implications we are likely to see, let's start with Europe, for being able to continue to advance the transition energy agenda?

- Yeah, so I think, look, it's significant, the result.

That's part of the reason why we have elections, but I think we also need to put it in broader context and zoom out from individual countries, France particularly, and look at Europe as a whole.

For example, if you look at the next president of the European Commission, I think it's fair to say that, well, the European People's Party, the largest party, President Von Der Leyen, she will now need support from the Greens in order to get over the hurdle.

So that provides some balance to the overall balance of climate policy.

That's the first thing.

The second thing is we're operating in a world of heightened importance of security, but also of national competitiveness.

We will soon see the report from Mario Draghi on European competitiveness, and to paraphrase, what he said is the world's changed radically.

There are some regions that are manipulating the system for their advantage, and there's others, I.E.

China, that are trying to make us permanently dependent on them.

We, Europe, need to recognize that and build out industries, and he starts with industries in and around climate, clean energy, as where European strengths are.

So it becomes an economic, national security, and European competitiveness issue, and that will help drive much of it.

Now, to draw to specifics what may be on the table, I think there'll be questions about the ban on internal combustion engines, the moratorium after 2035, the exact timing of that.

There is unlikely to be significant additional money at the European level for climate, those solidarity funds which have been quite important, for example, to Italy, but it probably reinforces on trade policy so that embodied carbon, to use the phrase of John Podesta, you see the US head in this direction as well, that that becomes one of the key elements of market access.

- Let's move to the United States, and on the one hand, I mean, Biden has been a president that has promoted a climate agenda, and it was a big piece of the Inflation Reduction Act, At the same time, the US today is the largest producer of fossil fuels in the world, and we just saw a big announcement, a big piece of the $18 billion tariff against China, a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

- [Mark] Yeah.

- You look at all of this, and how do you feel about the role the world's largest economy is playing in an energy transition?

- Well, I think there are, you're optimizing or working towards several objectives here.

- That are not necessarily completely overlapping.

- But they can be aligned.

We are going to be using, collective we, are gonna be using fossil fuels for the next, you know, quarter century and beyond, and the question is, where are those gonna come from?

Are they gonna be low cost, low risk, in other words, political jurisdictions, and low carbon?

And so the US has it's low cost, it's low risk politically, and relatively low carbon.

It can get lower carbon, and some of the biggest US energy companies have signed up, for example, to zero methane by 2030 pledges, which is consistent with that.

So that's where you get the alignment on conventional fuels.

I think, more broadly, the US is looking to build up domestic industries.

You know, industrial policies, sometimes it's for climate reasons.

Other times, it's for economic reasons, and the tariffs on China reflect a desire partially to de-risk that relationship, but principally to develop domestic wind, solar, domestic hydrogen, first and foremost.

Now, that's an investment or a bet that the United States can make.

I'm not sure it's one that all jurisdictions can.

- So let's move to Canada.

- [Mark] Yeah.

- So, Canada's relationship with the United States, frequently been talked about historically as an afterthought.

It's friendly.

Nobody really cares about it.

- We care about the US, just to be clear.

- But increasingly, the Americans care about the Canadians.

I mean, my experience here, this time around, the relationship is becoming more strategic.

You agree with that?

- Yeah, I agree with that.

Yes.

- And what are the ways you think that's manifesting?

- Well, I think, you know, historically, it's been the longest undefended border.

You know, common values.

Look at our people on your TV, that kind of approach from Canada, and I think there's a slow awakening.

I think it needs to speed up to be honest, and we better not hit the snooze button on this.

A slow awakening of the fundamental strategic aspect of the relationship.

We're operating in a world where security is paramount.

You need resilience.

You need to look to those countries where you have common values and you need to reinforce them.

The first way we do that, as Canadians, is we become an essential trading partner of the United States.

In other words, we're providing things to the United States that, from a strategic perspective, the US absolutely needs.

So what does it need?

It needs clean energy.

We've been talking about that in size.

It needs critical metals and minerals from a reliable supplier.

It's essential to the ultimate success of that whole industrial strategy around clean energy.

I think as well what it needs is a reliable partner in the backbone of artificial intelligence, just the scale of development there.

You need clean power for that.

You need the right regulatory framework.

You need the right values.

You need reliable people.

You need cyber defenses.

All things that Canada can bring, and it's gonna sound odd, but even the United States needs capital, and we have some of the most sophisticated institutional investors in the world, and they bring smarts, they bring expertise, particularly in infrastructure investing, which is what the US is just in the very early stages of, you know, you could call it an infrastructure boom.

It's an infrastructure era, really, is what's gonna happen the next couple of decades in the US and I think in Canada as well.

It's gonna be about building out the new infrastructure.

We can provide all of that, and if we're providing all that, if we're working towards providing that, it's gonna make the US stronger, it's gonna make the relationship stronger, and it will bring a series of other benefits to both of us.

- So I know you wouldn't necessarily mind being prime minister in the future.

if there were a Carney administration, how would it differ from what Canada's seen in recent years?

- Whoever, you know, over the course of the next decade, I think this is a decisive decade very much for Canada.

We have a massive opportunity in Canada.

We can be part of the solution for the US, but gain huge benefits for all Canadians as a consequence of that.

So I think an even greater focus on that relationship and a focus on execution.

I mean, this is about tens and tens ultimately hundreds of billions of dollars of investment that needs to happen over the course of a very short period of time.

So I think first and foremost, in and around that, I think, as well, we have some huge domestic responsibilities here.

We need to build six million homes over the course of the next 10 years.

We need to build six million homes.

That's what we need to do.

We need to ramp up from our- - Housing prices are just way too high right now.

People are very angry about it.

- Prices, and rightly so.

Prices, availability, the quality of homes.

There's a right way and wrong way to do it, but we've gotta execute against that.

So, again, a real focus on tangible delivery.

I think that's one of the things that we need to do.

We need to get much better at delivering for Canadians, delivering for our allies.

Then, the last thing, I mean, there's many other things, but the last thing I'll emphasize for this is, look, any time you have these big transformations, climate, AI transformation, transformation in the global economy, it brings opportunities, but opportunities for people who have skills, and so we need to provide Canadians, on a huge scale, the opportunity to re-train, and it's massively exciting.

You know, at a moment like this, if I can get the skills to participate in, you know, to master the machine, if you will, on the AI side, fantastic.

It's empowering.

If I'm just sitting there with my existing skillset, it's massively threatening, and so we have, you know, this is a fork in the road.

We have a choice on that, and our governments need to align with that.

- Mark Carney, thanks for being here.

- Thanks for having me, Ian.

[gentle electronic music] - So we've talked about the United Kingdom and France and Canada, but what about the rest of the world?

As you've no doubt heard on this show, 2024 is fast becoming the most intense year of democracy the world has ever seen.

Some four billion people, nearly half the world's population, are casting ballots in at least 70 countries.

2024 isn't just an election year.

It's the election year.

It's June, halfway through, which means it's time now for "GZERO World"'s year of elections halftime report.

2024 started off with a bang, almost literally on January 13th.

Taiwanese voters chose Former Vice President Lai Ching-Te of the Democratic Progressive Party as president, who wants to strengthen ties with the United States.

Lai doesn't support Taiwanese independence, or at least doesn't say that publicly, but his inauguration speech angered Beijing so much, he talked about sovereignty and stuff like that, that China sent fighter jets and warships to hold military exercises all around the island in a show of force.

The biggest election this year, India, the world's largest democracy, with a record 642 million people casting ballots during April and May.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term, but his BJP party suffered a humbling set-back, losing nearly 60 seats in parliament and failing to secure an outright majority for the first time.

since coming to power a decade ago.

The party now has to work with two smaller regional parties to form a government.

Can Modi, a strong-man curious leader used to having his way all the time, can he learn to be a team player?

Watch the space.

South Africa's May 29th national election brought the biggest change from the status quo.

The ruling African National Congress, the party of Nelson Mandela and current president Cyril Ramaphosa, performed even worse than expected.

For the first time in its modern democracy, the ANC no longer has a majority in parliament.

They only got 40%, and they were forced to form a unity government with their biggest political rival, the pro-business Democratic Alliance, as well as some smaller parties.

In the short term, Ramaphosa, remains in office, but the previously unthinkable coalition agreement is shaky at best.

I'm sure that'll go just fine.

In Mexico, a very different story.

An even bigger than expected win for current president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, AMLO's hand-picked successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, whose Morena party won with a margin of 32 points.

Mexico's first woman elected president, Sheinbaum has already made history, and has a strong mandate to continue AMLO's populist policies, but when the fiesta dies down, she's gonna need to deal with issues like on-going cartel violence and immigration at the US border, and if she follows through with plans to weaken the Mexican judiciary, and it looks like she will, as well as other democratic institutions, economic and social stability will suffer.

There's more to come as France and the United Kingdom both hold their own national elections in the next few weeks, and of course, the final showdown right here in the United States in November, an election that will have far-reaching consequences, not only for the United States, but democracy itself.

[gentle electronic music] And now it's time for Puppet Regime.

Roll that tape.

- After underperforming in the recent election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is trying a new approach to finding love among the Indian people.

Let's check it out.

- All the single ladies, put your hands up!

Welcome to this special edition of "Hindu Nationalist Matchmaker."

Today's bachelor is Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

- Hello, ladies.

Modi is ready for love.

- Your bio-data is very impressive.

What will make you a good husband?

- Well, I am very handy around the house.

I have already installed 100 million toilets in India.

- I also hear you are very fun at parties.

- Yes.

I have a great number of magic tricks.

For example, I made Kashmir autonomy disappear.

- What do you say to all the parents who wish their daughter would marry a doctor?

- I say I am already exporting more generic pharmaceuticals than any other country on the planet.

- Very impressive.

Now, as one last treat for our single ladies, I understand you have a song.

- I do.

Hit it, Amit.

[lively music] ♪ Namaste, ladies ♪ ♪ I want to be your guy ♪ ♪ Love from the Modi ♪ ♪ Is better than finest chai ♪ ♪ I promise I will always be true ♪ ♪ I want to make in India with you ♪ ♪ Won't you come to be my bride ♪ ♪ A strong man needs a strong wife by his side ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ Girl, won't you take my hand ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ I want to be your man ♪ ♪ Modi is ready for love, so here we go ♪ ♪ But before we marry ♪ ♪ A few things you should know ♪ ♪ My friend Amit will stay in the mix ♪ ♪ Pushing to jail Muslims for kicks ♪ ♪ And while I can promise you the moon and stars ♪ ♪ RSS will still own my heart ♪ ♪ And if we should fight about money, my bride ♪ ♪ I just might leave you demonetized ♪ ♪ Why don't you just agree to ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ Girl, won't you take my hand ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ I want to be your man ♪ [puppet singing in foreign language] [puppet continues singing in foreign language] ♪ Girl, won't you just marry me ♪ ♪ Marry me, marry me ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ Girl, won't you take my hand ♪ ♪ Marry, marry Modi, Modi ♪ ♪ I want to be your man ♪ - [Voiceover] Puppet Regime!

- That's our show this week.

Come back next week, and if you like what you've seen or you just wanna have some more elections, we've got you covered.

Check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[lively theme music] [lively theme music continues] [lively theme music continues] [bright music] - [Narrator 1] Funding for "GZERO World" is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

- [Narrator 2] Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains with a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at prologis.com.

- [Narrator 1] And by.

- [Narrator 3] Cox Enterprises is proud to support GZERO.

We're working to improve lives in the areas of communications, automotive, clean tech, sustainable agriculture, and more.

Learn more at cox.career/news.

- [Narrator 1] Additional funding provided by Jerre and Mary Joy Stead, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and... [upbeat music] [uplifting music]