♪ opening music ♪ >> Welcome to This Week in South Carolina.

I'm Gavin Jackson, June 1st marked the start of hurricane season, and meteorologist John Quagliariello joins me to look at what we can expect from this possible above average season, but first, Scott Huffmon, Winthrop political science professor and executive director of the University's Center for Public Opinion, and Research, discusses the latest Winthrop Poll findings.

Scott, thanks for joining me.

>> Sure.

My pleasure.

Gavin>> So Scott, last week, you guys dropped your first Winthrop Poll in about two years, I think, and we're always excited to hear about these findings, because it's a little snapshot, a little pulse of South Carolinians, what's on the top of their minds, what they're prioritizing.

So, that being said, kind of tell us, what were some big numbers, some big takeaways for you in this poll?

>> Sure.

And you know, and I feel like we've, you know, done the state of disservice, but with COVID, we just really weren't able to get to the polls out, because we have to have live callers in order to call cell phones if you don't have live callers, you can't call cell phones, and the other thing is, most polls you see are going to be registered voters or likely voters, and so we tend to be the only ones who do actually all citizens in South Carolina, whether they're registered or not.

That said, you know, most of the headlines that jumped out at you are politically related.

I think the story of this poll is polarization.

You know, we know that America is becoming more and more polarized.

And I don't think anybody is surprised.

We asked them questions where you could, you know, rate on a scale, whether you liked or disliked or loved or hated different groups, and of course, Republicans hate Democrats, Democrats hate Republicans, but we also asked things about, you know, how do you feel about people who fly the Confederate flag?

How do you feel about Black Lives Matter?

Now, whenever we had racial issues like that, I absolutely expected there to be, some polarization between Blacks and Whites.

and of course, there was, but here is what was surprising.

There was even more polarization between the parties, Democrats and Republicans on issues related to race.

Let me say that, again.

There was more polarization on racial issues between the parties, than there was polarization on racial issues between the races, and that really speaks to the fact that South Carolina is in line with the rest of the country when it comes to increasing political polarization.

Gavin>> Scott, another big number, a big takeaway I saw from this was about the election itself, and you were talking about fairness, you know, finding out who thought the 2020 election was fair.

I asked Gibbs Knotts about this the other day, too, and why did you use that term fair, instead of maybe stolen or some of these other things like rigged?

Do you just want to really try and get as much of a baseline as possible?

Scott>> Well, I wanted to...create a concept in the listeners' mind, right.

So, we said fair and accurate.

So, that meant, you know, what I'm trying to create in the listeners mind is the idea that there were no shenanigans and the proper result came from it.

So, I asked them if they thought the race was fair and accurate, and perhaps to no one's surprise, although I think to our dismay, there was again, political polarization between Democrats and Republicans.

85% of Democrats said, yeah, it was fair and accurate, whereas only 18% of Republicans.

Now, you know, we know there was not widespread fraud in the presidential election of 2020.

So, it sort of raises the question, is this something like a badge of identity for a lot of these Republicans so that, you know, they say we're part of the club that, you know, hates these results?

Or do they actually think the results were inaccurate and fraudulent?

And, of course, we didn't probe deeper on that.

That might be something for a future poll, but definitely there was a huge divide between the parties on whether they thought the last presidential election was fair and accurate.

Gavin>> Scott, you say it's more of like a political badge at this point, but what do you think about the long term ramifications of, you know, this drum beat that continues about how an election was stolen or not fair or accurate?

When, yes, there's always been those kinds of accusations, but this is very widespread.

It's reached very high points in our American life and public institutions as well.

What does that signal to you going forward?

Scott>> That's actually... the great concern, I think, for a lot of political scientists because it erodes the legitimacy of the system.

When you have people saying, the fix is in, that there are people some cabal of folks who are doing secret things to try and undermine a democracy, well, what you end up doing is undermining the democracy in order to stop this fantasy that somebody else is doing the same thing.

So, what we see are people who, you know, wrongfully believe that the election was fraudulent, running for positions like Secretary of State, or, you know, the head of the state Election Commissions in various states, that is, the groups that are in charge of the legitimacy of elections.

There are folks running for those that don't believe the last election and all the honest poll workers did their job in the last election, and to the degree that you erode the perception of legitimacy in elections, then you are eroding the perception of democratic legitimacy in our country.

Gavin>> ...Then just, it's a race to the bottom.

We always I feel...keep talking about every time I have on the show, and that's worrisome because what's true and what's not true when you start thinking about these things aren't true, you don't listen to people that are in power, or people that are experts on the matter, but you listen to what's on social media, or it's a meme, or it's just something that's passed around.

Is there any way to break that cycle?

How do you...see breaking that cycle, maybe even talking to students about these issues?

Scott>> Well, we know that fact checking can only go so far.

When it comes to some things fact checking actually can cause a rebound effect and have people believe the incorrect thing even stronger.

I think what we're going to have to do is to erode the polarization, is actually to be in contact with each other.

Right now if you're a Democrat, most of your friends are probably Democrats.

If you're a Republican, most, or all of your friends are Republicans.

So each is inside of an echo chamber, and to the degree that you have an in group and an out group, whereas you don't interact with anyone from the out group, then you're always going to be suspicious, and you know, there was V.O.

Key, the grandfather of southern politics, talked about this, that the only way to erode mistrust between races was to have individual relationships between Blacks and Whites, and then that would grow into societal trust.

Well, we have gone in the exact opposite direction politically.

And, you know, reversing that trend may be our only way out at this point.

Gavin>> And you're kind of bringing up the next topic I want to talk about, which is race and cancel culture, which is something that you polled on in your poll.

You know, we talked about race still being very divisive in this state, and we talked about having these uncomfortable conversations to kind of bridge these gaps to understand each other better, but now it seems like we're at this point now where people don't want to have a conversation at all for fear of being canceled.

You know, I try to interview some people on the street every now and then to get their perceptions on things, and folks just don't want to talk that much because they're scared of you know, getting their voice out there and saying the wrong thing and being canceled.

What did your poll find?

What do you take away from that?

Scott>> Yeah, we asked if people had sort of held their tongue, whether or not there was, you know, anytime within the last year where they were afraid of expressing their opinion for fear of getting backlash, and what we found was, it was evenly split among Republicans, and now, it was fewer Democrats, but the Republicans are afraid they're going to get cancelled.

So this is out there and whether or not it's, you know, they legitimately have encountered someone who has given them backlash on their views, or it's just the news that they listen to, the cable news, that they listen to, telling them if you express your opinion, you'll be threatened.

At some point that becomes moot, and the simple fact is, more and more people are beginning to be afraid to express their opinions, and it is Republicans in South Carolina who are saying, if I express my opinion, I'm afraid someone's going to come after me, verbally attack me.

Gavin>> ...Sometimes it's rooted in not having correct facts and then double downing on those incorrect facts, and then people try to tell you they're wrong, and then it spirals from there in many cases too.

Scott>> Absolutely, and it all relates to trust, whether or not you trust your, you know, the people who might hear you, to even if they disagree, do so respectfully or not and again, that all goes back to the erosion of societal norms that we're seeing.

Gavin>> It's always encouraging to have you on the show with those takeaways, Scott, but we have a few moments left I'll ask you about Critical Race Theory is what we're talking about race.

We're talking about that really hot topic, that again, is not taught in K through 12 schools in South Carolina, but still has been a very big trigger point in the state, as well as the country and also Confederate monuments, which are still very divisive.

I know I asked you earlier about just in terms of how this contrasts with some prior polling you've done and I understand it's not at the top of your head, but it seems like things are about the same when it comes to people's views on Confederate monuments, and then also some new polling, like you said, on CRT.

Scott>> Yeah, the views on Confederate monuments really haven't changed that much.

I know you had Gibbs on earlier, he and I and some other co-authors have actually done some rese arch on this, and what drives attitudes about what to do with Southern Confederate monuments has nothing to do with whether or not you identify as a southerner.

People who do or don't identify as a Southerner are equally likely or not likely to want to leave them alone.

What drives attitudes about Confederate monuments is racial resentment among Whites.

So we are seeing again, the erosion of societal norms, mistrust between races over racial issues, and this is bubbling up, as you pointed out, over Critical Race Theory, which most people don't even fully understand what it is.

It's just become sort of a watch word for, you know, the fear that something bad is happening.

It is not taught in K through 12, but the incorrect things that people think are Critical Race Theory, some of those are taught, that there's been systemic racism in the past and in a country that's had slavery, that's had redlining, that's had, you know, GIs come back from World War Two and not be able to get the loans they were promised simply because they were Black.

We know there has been systemic racism, but that's actually not Critical Race Theory, but that's what some people think it is.

So again, it's just become this watch word for the division that we're seeing across the country, and it is right here at home in South Carolina.

>> Scott, let's move from the poll to just your take on what's going on right now on the campaign trail in South Carolina, specifically, the Congressional primaries coming up on June 14th.

There have been several primaries around the country that we've been following, especially with these Trump endorsed candidates, two of which we have in South Carolina in these hot races in the 1st Congressional District with Katie Arrington, and in the 7th with Russell Fry.

Tell me, what are you...gleaning from these other races around the country?

You know, we just saw some action in Georgia recently as well, and how you're applying that maybe to these two hot races in South Carolina?

>> Well, you know, here in South Carolina, the people who love Trump really love Trump, and so a lot of his endorsements around the country were hit or miss.

He was successful in some, not successful in the other.

It was not just a tsunami of all of his endorsements win, but when you look at South Carolina, Tom Rice was not positioned as strongly as Nancy Mace among conservatives.

Tom Rice was seen as a moderate.

He was seen as somebody who criticized Trump and Nancy Mace, for all the things she's done to apparently upset Trump and have Trump endorsed against her, she has a better connection, at least in some of the polls I've seen, a better connection to the Republican base in South Carolina and some of the Trump folks I think will come, line up behind her, especially because Katie Arrington already lost a race once and you know, to a Democrat who should not have won, in their minds that race.

Tom Rice is a lot more threatened, and as he gets closer to the primary, he's going to have to find a way to claw back a lot of the Trump voters who are listening to that endorsement against him.

Gavin>> Scott, I was just hanging out with a Congressman yesterday in Florence.

He had former House Speaker Paul Ryan with him.

A lot of the talk was centering around, you know, longevity.

He's been there for 10 years.

He's running for a sixth term, and he's poised to jump to possibly a subcommittee chairmanship on the House, Ways and Means Committee, which again, is responsible for a huge budget.

So, they see that as a valuable tool, but, you know, it's tax policy.

It's these intricate policy issues, not as the big sexy issues, perhaps that grab headlines.

What do you think that he has to do to maintain that or and continue to fend off these challengers?

Scott>> Well, if that's something you want to run on, and it should be, again, the idea that you have a representative who is in a position of significant power to help you, normally that would be something very good, but in modern times, policy is far less important.

The ability to engage on particular often obscure policy matters should be important.

But the reality is, it's all about the heartstrings.

It's all about paying...to certain ideologies.

And if you're seen as not having done that enough, then the fact that you might be in a grand position to help your entire district might not matter as much in a primary where showing that loyalty to certain ideologies can often be more important.

Gavin>> Scott, just last question here.

When you look at January 6th, we talk about the election of 2020, all those issues and all those emotions around these two big events?

How do you see that maybe branding this 2022 midterm election cycle?

Scott>> Well, it's, you know, it's becoming kind of a badge of honor, interestingly, among some Republicans that, you know, it was, in my personal opinion, domestic terrorism.

It was the committing of violence with the purpose of changing policy, which is quite literally the definition of terrorism, but it has not been something that Democrats have been able to run and win on.

You see, the push back against the January 6th committee from Republicans, and what you don't see are a groundswell of Democrats and moderates standing up and saying, No, this is something important for us to find out about.

So, it is something important to hardcore folks more on the left, but it is not something that they have been able to sort of raise interest in the election about, but it is something that the Republicans have been able to capitalize on.

So, it's been really interesting watching the evolution of what happened on January 6th.

Gavin>> A lot to watch there and a lot we'll be talking about on primary night June 14th at 8pm live in studio with Gibbs Knotts.

We'll be doing live analysis and returns 8pm June 14, and that's Scott Hoffman, he's a political science professor at Winthrop University and the Winthrop Poll director.

Thanks, Scott.

Scott>> My pleasure.

Gavin>> Joining me now is John Quagliariello.

He is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service here in Columbia.

We're going to talk about the hurricane season.

John, thanks for joining us.

>> Thanks for having me.

>> So, John, it's 2022 Atlantic hurricane season that just started June 1st.

Tell us what we're seeing being predicted for this active, above active season from NOAA, right now.

>> Sure, the latest forecast from NOAA is for yet another above normal hurricane season, which would make this the 7th consecutive above normal season if it pans out the way it's forecast.

Right now the latest forecast is indicating potential for 14 to 21 named storms.

On a normal season, we have about 14 named storms.

In terms of hurricanes, the forecast is for six to 10 hurricanes, and again, an average season we see about seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, which are category three or greater, the forecast is for three to six major hurricanes, and again, an average season we have about three major hurricanes.

So, all of those are above normal forecast for this year.

Gavin>> ...We're talking about seven consecutive years of above normal activity in the Atlantic.

John, we haven't really seen a big storm since Dorian in 2019, but before then, we were getting back to back years of pretty bad storms, kind of walk us through for some folks who maybe haven't lived through those.

Maybe they just moved here to the States since 2019, what people should know, and maybe a little bit of our past.

John>> Sure, well, you know, the the hurricane that most South Carolinians, kind of think of as being one was Hurricane Hugo, and we kind of had a dry spell where we really didn't have any significant hurricanes impacting the state, and then starting with Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and then it almost seemed like every year since then, we've had some type of tropical storm or hurricane impacting parts of South Carolina.

We were fortunate last year not to have anything, but what we saw in these storms are all different.

None of them are the same in terms of impact.

You look at Hurricane Matthew, and we had tremendous wind damage along the coast, trees that were just knocked down, most areas east of I-95, you still see some of the damage from Matthew, and we had, some pretty good storm surge along the coast and then a storm like, Irma, for example, didn't even make landfall in the state.

It actually made landfall down in southwest Florida, and the storm surge from there was even worse than it was with Matthew.

We still saw tropical storm force winds everywhere across the state, and then you have a storm like Florence, where the wind speeds had weakened before it reached the coast, but it was an incredible rain producer, and we saw incredible rainfall amounts in the northeast part of the state near the Grand Strand and significant flooding up there.

So, every storm really could bring different impacts.

That's what we need to prepare for.

Just because you were okay in one storm in the past doesn't mean the next storm is going to bring the same results.

Gavin>> Yeah, and John, you are always at the podium there at the Emergency Management Division Operations Center when they're delivering these updates when we're just watching it develop day by day, hour by hour.

So we haven't seen you for a while.

That's what we're having you on so people can remember that, you know, these things do happen, but how prepared is the state?

You know, we have that track record for years now.

It's you know, it's 2022.

It's been a couple years, like we've said, since we've had a big one.

How prepared are we and what does this forecast help y'all do in preparation for this season?

John>> Yeah, well, I think the state's very prepared.

I mean, I feel as an agent, the Weather Service is very fortunate to have great partners in the state to work with, from state emergency management all the way down to the local level, the county emergency managers and other state agencies that work very closely with in preparation, ahead of the storm and then working with as we are actually dealing with the storm impacting the area.

You know, we've had a lot of experience in the state here in the past five to seven years dealing with hurricanes, and I think because of that experience is really going to help us out during the next storm, but really, the key thing here is making sure that everyone in the public, people that live here in the state, people that are visiting the state are prepared to know what to do, and that's really the message we need to get out here at the start of hurricane season, is to make sure everyone has a plan.

You know what you're going to do in case of a hurricane.

You know what evacuation zone you live in, and if you do need to leave where you're going.

Just things like that we need people really to be aware of.

These seasonal forecasts are helpful, because it gives us some indication of what the season may look like, but in some ways, all it takes is one storm, right?

You can have a very inactive season, but one storm impacts the state, and that's enough to really bring impacts and potential devastation to the state.

So, I don't put a whole lot of weight in the seasonal outlooks.

I think, any season no matter what the outlook is, we need to be prepared for what potentially can come during hurricane season.

Gavin>> Yeah, because we're already seeing right now some of those remnants from Hurricane Agatha, which was in the Pacific, went across Mexico, and now it looks like it's going to affect Florida this weekend.

John>> Right, there's already potential for, it would be, I believe, will be renamed because it's coming to the Atlantic basin, but you know, potentially, you know, a storm developing here in the next several days, like you had mentioned the Gulf of Mexico and potentially impacting parts of Florida as we head into the weekend.

So, you know, certainly it's an early start, but you know, the official start is June 1st, and we've even seen previous seasons where we've had tropical activity, as early as mid May.

So, the season starts early, and it's probably going to be a busy one.

Gavin>> John, tell us about what's influencing this.

You know, we hear about climate change or hear about La Nina.

Tell me some of the factors, warmer, you know, ocean temperatures as a result of possible global warming, of global warming.

What are the factors here that come into play when it comes to the strength of these hurricanes, the frequency and the intensity?

John>> Sure, well, NOAA is still investigating really what the impacts of climate change has on tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, but what we do know for this upcoming season, what they use to make these outlooks for the tropical season.

There's several factors.

One, it's a continued La Nina, and La Nina really has to do with sea surface temperatures, actually in the Pacific Ocean, which influence the overall weather patterns, but when we're in a La Nina that tends to bring more frequent tropical systems in the Atlantic, in the Atlantic basin.

So that's one thing.

We're expecting La Nina to persist right through the summer.

Another is warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea and warmer water temperatures are always more favorable for tropical cyclone development and intensifying storms.

Another is a weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.

When we have weaker winds higher up in the atmosphere, tropical systems tend to become better organized.

When you have stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere, they tend to kind of break apart the storm and don't really let them form and develop into stronger storms.

So, when we have those weaker winds, we tend to see, quicker intensification, and stronger storms out in the Atlantic.

Another factor is also an enhanced West African monsoon, and really what that does is as we head later into the hurricane season, as you start getting into August and September, we tend to get these waves coming off of the African coast.

Given that we're going to have a stronger monsoon, and it's going to allow those waves really to be stronger, potentially coming off the coast, and those leads to those storms that we watched coming out in the Atlantic, weeks ahead of time sometimes, which really become the strong, long lived hurricanes that we see later in the season, and because of that, we're expecting to see some increased activity out there later on this summer, as well.

So there's multiple factors really that go into this outlook this year.

Gavin>> John, when we look at those intense hurricanes, those major hurricanes that come across and even some smaller ones too, what are some of the biggest threats people should be aware of, should one come to threaten South Carolina?

>> Yeah, there's multiple threats.

Usually the biggest threat that we're concerned with in terms of loss of life has to do with storm surge.

Along the coast, storm surge tends to be one of the biggest factors for a lot of these hurricanes, but that's not the only threat.

Certainly wind is a big factor.

You know, knocking down trees, power lines, and certainly if it's a strong enough hurricane, you're going to have structural damage near that coast, and then one of the kind of hidden threats that we don't always factor in or think about is the inland flooding threat.

Heavy rainfall producing significant inland flooding, we've seen that here in the Carolinas quite frequently in the past five years.

Exactly, Florence, and the devastation it caused in eastern North Carolina and parts of Northeast South Carolina.

So, the inland floods right there and it doesn't have to be a strong hurricane.

It could be a weaker tropical storm that produces those high rainfall rates, and certainly, tornadoes can be a factor as well, as some of these tropical systems, but we tend to get are stronger tornado outbreaks for tropical systems that make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and then track northeast across the state does tend to bring us more in the way of tornadoes, but really, those are the four big factors that we need to be prepared for when it comes to tropical systems.

Gavin>> So with about less than a minute left, just tell me what people can do to prepare.

What are some of the resources they can look to, to get ready.

>> Yeah, so there's multiple great resources.

One is right with the South Carolina Emergency Management Division on their website, and on their app.

They have great tools and resources that you can use to prepare for the hurricane season.

You also can go to fema.gov or hurricanes.gov, which is the hurricane center, and they all have some great ways to start preparing now for the hurricane season, letting you know what you should be doing early in the season, and then as we head and get into a greater threat, also give you more information on how you should be preparing for an upcoming storm.

Gavin>> Gotcha.

Well, let's hope for a quiet one there.

That's John Quagliariello.

He's the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service here in Columbia.

Thanks, John.

>> Thank you.

>> To stay up to date with the latest news throughout the week, check out the South Carolina Lede.

It's a podcast that I host twice a week that you can find on South Carolina Public Radio.org or wherever you find podcasts.

For South Carolina ETV, I'm Gavin Jackson.

Be well, South Carolina.

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