>> From WXXI News.

This is Connections.

I'm Evan Dawson.

Our connection this hour was made on November 8th on Truth Social, the social media site owned by President Trump.

The president himself posted about his administration's plan to introduce 50 year mortgages as a way of helping lower costs for homebuyers and homeowners.

In his post, the president shared a graphic it was titled Great American Presidents.

On the left was a picture of FDR with a title 30 Year Mortgage.

On the right was a picture of President Trump with the title 50 Year Mortgage.

For months, the Trump White House insisted this might actually be a good idea, despite a bipartisan chorus warning against it.

After all, the average age of a first time homebuyer in the United States is now 40 years old and with a 50 year mortgage, most homeowners would be dead before ever owning a house.

This past week, Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte said that the Trump administration is moving past that widely criticized idea for 50 year mortgages.

He told reporters, I think we have other priorities, and we're going to talk about what some of those priorities are.

So if not a 50 year mortgage, then what?

And we're also going to look at the state of the regional market as we get ready for the spring 2026 season.

In this time of low inventory.

Our guest this hour going around the room.

Hello Mark Siwiec, broker and owner of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates.

Welcome back to the program.

>> Good to see you, bud.

>> Lanie Bittner across the table from Mark, associate Real estate broker with RE/MAX Plus.

Welcome back to you and welcome to Jason Mancuso, who is a real estate salesperson with the Anthony Butera Team at Keller Williams Realty.

Thank you for being here.

>> Thank you for having me.

>> I admit that the 50 year mortgage made me think of the movie There's Something about Mary in the scene where Ben Stiller is driving, and he picks up a hitchhiker, and the hitchhiker is very chatty, and he tells him, you've got this great business idea.

He says, you've heard about this workout video, eight Minute ABS.

His idea?

Seven minute abs.

And it just feels like a 30 year mortgage.

15 year mortgage.

Well, I want to listen.

I want to understand at least the rationale that did carry this proposal for a little while anyway.

And I want to listen to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett talking to reporters just about a month ago about this.

Let's listen.

>> Again.

The issue is that that under President Biden, mortgage rates went up by about four percentage points and that about doubled the typical monthly mortgage payment.

And because of that, we've seen like a real sharp reduction in first time homebuyers especially, and also a reduction in people's willingness to move.

And it's something that we take very seriously as a policy challenge.

And extending the length of mortgages can reduce monthly payments by hundreds of dollars.

And it's something we're taking very seriously.

Wouldn't that be.

>> Something that is being studied as an imminent change?

If you need Congress?

It would be more deliberative at this point, I guess.

>> there there's a lot of legal analysis, but if it requires legislation that it wouldn't be imminent, wouldn't that be the same as.

>> Essentially renting?

And how would homeowners build equity?

>> No, it wouldn't, because you would basically build equity.

First of all a little slower because it's 50 years instead of 30 years or 15 years.

15 year fixed is often a great way to build equity.

But don't forget that you get the equity if the price goes up.

And on average, prices have tended to increase.

And so I don't think that the absence of equity is a serious concern about this.

And the bottom line is that we need to the average age of a first time home buyer has gone up by about ten years.

In just a few years.

So it's something.

>> So that was Kevin Hassett talking to reporters at the white House.

The National Economic Council director defending the proposal.

Well, now this week we learn that the Trump administration is ditching that idea.

So let's just briefly start there before we tackle some of these other proposals.

Mark Siwiec 50 year mortgage.

Was that ever a good idea?

>> No.

>> It's a ridiculous idea.

It's window dressing.

It doesn't get at the the real reforms that need to take place.

And we'll get into those in a little bit.

But the average age of a first time home buyer at this point in time is 40 years old.

So you buy your house at the age of 40, you get a 50 year, you're not even going to be alive by the time you pay off or potentially pay off this property.

And the fact that he said that said stated that the absence of equity is not a problem, then why buy a house?

I mean, you're removing all incentive to actually purchase a property.

So it was denounced by pundits, economists, real estate professionals.

From the moment it was announced until just recently when they realized that it had no traction, it was going nowhere.

>> You know what I think?

I think this is a next level attempt to bring to show that in a time of division, we can bring everyone together a bad proposal can can get everybody.

>> Most, most.

>> Everybody.

>> They're still unity.

>> Possible.

Yeah, I.

>> Don't know, maybe Lanie Bittner loves it.

Do you love this proposal?

50 year mortgage?

>> I don't I don't love it.

I mean, I, I see the one thing I mean, right is the if you look at a 15 year versus 30 year, 15 year, you're paying a lot more per month.

So obviously if you go from 30 year to 50 year, you're going to be paying less a month.

But I think that is the only positive thing to make it a little bit more affordable.

But in terms of building equity, no, it's going to take forever.

And just the length of time is is a bit ridiculous.

And as we start to see the rest of the country, you're starting to see foreclosures numbers go up.

So it's it's one of those things where I think it's not going to be a good thing for the whole country, period.

>> Jason, what did you see there?

>> So I love that we're trying to find ways to fight affordability.

And that's the real topic.

Yeah, right.

And that's going to be just a topic that doesn't dry out anytime soon.

So the notion of okay, let's throw out these ideas that are just that ideas and tweets.

And, you know, concepts that aren't going to get implemented.

You know, we got in front of this when it came out just to say, like, this probably isn't going to happen.

Willing to bet on that, right?

The numbers just don't make sense.

The reduced monthly payment that you end up saving by going to that longer term wasn't a isn't going to be enough of a benefit to cause that sort of mass result.

And on the back end, the amount that you're paying in debt and interest over the life of the loan.

If you do happen to keep it for 50 years, obnoxious.

So yeah, it's, you know, like, okay, let's fix affordability.

But, you know, just this tactic alone isn't going to do anything.

>> Or.

Yeah.

>> But but the most important thing is that it doesn't get at the core issue.

The core issue is that we're short three and a half to 4.5 million homes in the United States of America.

So until we start to address that as an issue, it doesn't matter how affordable a property is.

If we're shy three and a half to 4.5 million units, do something about that.

Everything else otherwise is simply window dressing.

>> In addition, I mean, it's this constant conversation about interest rates, right?

The doubling.

Yes, it doubled when I was president of the real estate board.

It went from in the threes to up over six.

And that second year that I was president I got asked about that a lot.

And that's the thing that's going to affect is the people that got 3% when they bought their house or when they refinanced their house, they're less they're less likely to sell.

Right.

So so that change affected the inventory issue.

And I absolutely agree with Mark.

Unless somebody figures out these inventory issue, it's not housing's not going to get more affordable.

>> Yeah.

So to your point that a 50 year mortgage wouldn't add more houses.

Can I interest you in a hundred year mortgage.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> A 200 year mortgage.

I mean, listen, we're going to lower payments, be minuscule.

>> Yeah, yeah.

>> Okay.

So that's dead.

But here are some ideas that Politico reports that are now being considered.

And we're going to go one by one here.

The first the white House is drafting an executive order targeted at addressing Americans frustration with the cost of living, including a push to allow people to dip into to their retirement and college savings accounts to afford down payments on homes.

Jason, what do you make of this one?

>> So I think, you know, again, back to affordability.

And this topic has gotten to be so large and systemic in a way, right.

Where it's a there's a great effect that it has.

And my response is, is always it's it's more so the individual.

Right.

And what's going to be the best financial decision for each individual.

Now bringing this into the equation of okay, you can tap into your retirement savings to to go buy a home, if that makes sense, based on that individual's overall financial picture.

It could be a great thing to take advantage of.

There's certainly a ton of risk to that with now people can't retire, but they own a home.

And is that, you know is that what we're going for?

>> So it depends on how much they have to dip in.

>> Correct.

And an individual financial, you know, finding the comfort zone, finding the plan that's going to work for each individual is is really how to combat this in my eyes.

>> Okay.

So as a layperson, not in the industry, let me just ask you about what I would think are the advantages and disadvantages.

So to your point, everybody is going to need something different.

And if somebody can carefully and responsibly dip into that and use it to make this down payment, and then all of a sudden their life is better, they own a home or they're on their way to owning a home, and they're in that home, and perhaps they can replenish that hole in in what they've dipped into.

And it doesn't wipe them out.

It doesn't foreclose on the idea that they could retire ever.

For some individuals, that works.

But for people who that's not currently an option and they go, well, that's too big a temptation.

And I don't know if this is a good idea, but the government says it's cool now, so I'm going to do it.

And and they put themselves in a bad spot.

>> That's where it gets dangerous.

Right?

>> Is this so you're saying both could happen?

>> Well, the rhetoric and the presentation of like, here's the cure, here's the fix to this.

Right.

And it just being applying to the mass and people getting on board with that without really getting into the details and really having the plan on the back end.

Right.

Because it's like, okay, if you're going to do this for the purpose of, you know, just being in a home and there's value to that and raising your family in a home versus an apartment, right.

As an example like that has a cost to it for most.

And that cost in this case, if it's dipping into retirement, for example, what's the plan on the back end?

Because you're also going to want to retire at some point.

And if you're now affected by if that is now affected by this decision and you're not thinking about it and planning for it properly, that's my concern with with any of this.

>> But but it doesn't it doesn't.

Let's go back to your premise.

You're creating more demand.

Sure.

You're not addressing.

>> The supply.

>> Mark's just going to keep going.

Where are the houses?

>> That's it.

I'm just going to wind you up all our.

And you're going to go, where are the houses?

>> You know me too.

>> Well because.

>> Exactly.

>> But that's.

>> But that's 100% the issue.

Honestly, in our area that is in our area that is 100%.

>> In this region, but in a lot of places.

>> In a lot of places.

But you're starting to see, you know, where the typical, you know, big swings, ups and downs, the Florida's, you know, the things like that.

You're seeing where they have more inventory things again, increase in foreclosures.

So you're starting to see things have been opening up, I think, for the past couple of years, and some different markets.

Again, our market continues to see high demand because comparatively, we still are very affordable compared to the rest of the country.

I mean, the median is 450 across the country and we're at 250.

So when you look at that, there's a significant issue.

And so in terms of affordability, I mean we still have issues here.

But it's again, more the cost of living and the wages that are people making.

And can they afford, you know, going back to your retirement question, right, is usually the people that that can afford to put into retirement and then pull up, pull some money out there for, for housing, they may be a little bit better at saving.

And so it's really, I think, the people that have more of a difficult time saving for whatever reason, and trying to figure out ways to get them those dollars to help them with closing costs.

I mean, for years, on a state level with the New York State Association of Realtors, we've been trying to put through a first time homebuyer.

You know, either either a saving, basically savings program, 2017, it passed both houses, went to Governor Cuomo's desk, and he he didn't approve it.

He wanted to see more research on it, because you're taking money out of the state's coffers, and they don't love that.

And now, Senator Cooney, actually, locally, is one of the big sponsors of we're still trying to get that through to get like it's like the college program where you get some money.

>> He's on the show tomorrow.

I'll ask him.

>> You go ask him about that.

Yeah.

So he's one of the sponsors for the for the first time homebuyer.

>> Laney, you said something that I think is really important.

And my intent is not in any way to be political.

However, you stated a few moments ago that the that in this region we are shy the number of.

And you made the point.

Absolutely spot on that the Sun Belt, Florida and Texas.

ET cetera.

et cetera.

Arizona.

they have too much inventory.

The proposals that are coming out of the white House right now benefit the Sun Belt.

They don't benefit the northeast, which is where we have not enough housing.

And the president literally came out and said, you create a lot of housing.

And all of a sudden it drives down housing prices.

I want them to go up.

It seems to me that this is a policy that is intended to benefit the Sun Belt at the expense of the northeast, and who lives in the northeast.

It's a demographic that is not voting for this particular president.

>> Well, I will say this, Mark, the remarks that you just read of the president are indicative of someone who sees housing in transactional and investment terms.

And, you know, I understand there are people who feel that way who feel like this is my biggest asset.

I want the price to go up.

I want the value to go up.

But that goes against a lot of the conversation in recent years, which is if you cannot afford to get into it in the first place.

And we're seeing the first time buyers age going up, up, up.

Now it's 40 years old.

A generation ago was 28, then.

That's not an asset that you're going to afford to have.

And maybe that's the wrong way to look at it.

How do you look at it?

Because I mean, certainly I understand why people do want to look at their house as a valuable asset.

>> Yeah.

So, so, so we need two things.

We need more inventory.

You've heard that.

But then we also need some of these other some of the other proposals are great proposals.

talking about dipping into your 401(k) without penalty.

Right.

>> Are you in favor of that?

>> Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

>> Absolutely.

it's been a long, long time since the capital gains tax has been increased.

So currently you sell your property $250,000 per person, $500,000 for a couple.

You know, there are a lot of places where you can easily create, especially given Rochester, where there's been a 75% increase in the value of property since 2019.

So there are a lot of proposals that are out there that are interesting that that need to be addressed.

So, but, but it's all performative unless you're talking about.

And so when the president talks about the fact that he doesn't want to, he doesn't want too many houses built too quickly because it's going to drive down prices.

We're shy, as I said earlier, three and a half to 4.5 million units.

>> So that's not going to wipe out your home value.

That's just going to maybe stabilize a market.

>> absolutely.

Yeah.

>> at least from my perspective.

So all right.

So you don't want to do it too quickly.

I mean, even if the proposals were to create more housing were enacted today, let's face it, it's still going to be two, three years before we actually start to to see housing.

So just roll it out incrementally so that we're starting to see.

So maybe it's 500,000 new units every year.

Maybe it's a million units.

But there is math that would allow for the creation of new inventory without cratering current value.

>> Okay.

let me grab a phone call before we jump into some of these other proposals that are coming from the administration.

And this in Brighton.

This is David Cay Johnston, a longtime investigative journalist.

hi, David.

Go ahead.

>> Well, there is a way to use the 50 year concept that could benefit homeowners.

We could have you start off on a payment schedule based on 50 years to repay the principal.

Then over time, because people's wages rise, you pay a greater and greater sum so that you actually pay the mortgage off in a shorter period.

>> So the concept of a lower initial payment is not per se a bad idea.

Secondly, once you've paid off more than half your mortgage, particularly with appreciation over time, the bank's risk has dropped to essentially zero.

If you flake out and stop paying, the bank will not lose money.

They'll recover every penny.

So we could combine that with a rule that once you reduce your balance to some level, 50% 40% of the original, that you then get your interest rate reduced slightly.

If it's 6%, it goes to five and a half, representing the lower risk to the borrower because the price is based on risk.

>> Okay.

are you siding with the Trump administration on this proposal?

>> David, I was thinking the same thing.

Well, all.

>> That it's not a bad idea to find a way to open to start with a lower initial payment for people, basically.

>> I mean, what I said, like, I.

>> Hang in there, David.

Hold on.

I see.

>> That that's a good thing, right?

That that's a good thing.

But then when you look at it, I think, you know, I certainly appreciate where you're coming from because that's what I had said earlier.

But it's, you know, to get to the point where you're 50%, I think, I think somebody who can get, you know, get there.

I think that's going to be hard.

I think they're probably not going to choose that 50 year mortgage.

I think it's you're looking at the people who are going to have a little bit harder time.

It's going to take them longer to get there, to do the 50%.

So I, I don't know.

I think it's tough.

>> I'm not suggesting a 50 year mortgage.

I'm suggesting you start out with a payback schedule that would be 50 years, but your payment increases over the years so that your payback schedule can be 15 years, 20 years, 30 years.

It's just the initial payment.

The first few years you were a homeowner, when you also have the expenses of furnishing that house, buying yard equipment.

>> And your salary might be lower, your income might be lower.

>> Yeah.

>> So like a graduated like a graduated.

>> A step a.

>> Graduated payment mortgage and combine it with as a lure.

Once you've gotten your mortgage down below the 50% point where the bank no longer has a risk, adjusting the interest rate downward because the bank no longer has the same level of risk.

>> Okay.

>> So.

>> That's not what the administration proposed.

But hang there for a second, David.

Go ahead, Jason.

>> Not what the administrator proposed.

And the issue with the proposal is that, you know, it assumes a large amount of fiscal responsibility, right, to where if you're going to use a 50 year policy, I could or a mortgage, I could I could understand the value to where it's like, okay, this lower payment allows me to get into home.

I plan on refinancing at some point to not pay 50 years worth of interest, and the life of the loan.

Right.

That assumes that there's there's fiscal responsibility going on different than.

Well, hold on product policy rules and all that.

>> I'm not suggesting a 50 year mortgage.

Let me be clear.

>> Gotcha.

Yeah, we.

>> Got that.

You start out with a 50 year principal payment, but it escalates steps up.

Yeah.

>> Yeah, yeah.

>> David, sorry.

>> There's no reason to think that people who buy homes are going to be fiscally irresponsible.

I mean, I just think that that's a red herring issue here in in this.

But clearly we need to build many more houses.

>> Yes.

There we go.

>> That are affordable and, and and we need to also improve the financing possibilities.

And one of the things never discussed is the relative risk of a bank.

If you buy a house with a 20% down payment.

That was the historical norm.

The theory was the bank actually had no risk if you flopped out and the bank had to take the house back, they would eventually recover all their money.

Well that's true.

So once you get to some very low level, if throws 50%, maybe 30% since the risk is lower, the banks return should be lower.

If you package those together.

Lower payment upfront, lower interest rate on the back end, you get a benefit that should stimulate more homeownership.

>> And protect banks.

Sure.

Yeah.

I take that point.

Hey, David, before you go, what do you make of some of what the panel's been talking about with capital gains taxes?

>> I think you ought to have an exemption for your home for capital gains.

very wealthy people buy their homes through trusts.

They don't own them directly.

So they are able to avoid many of these issues.

We have 1031 exchanges.

We have other devices capital gains should apply to securities bonds, stocks, partnership interests, et cetera.

And it would be, I think, much smarter to eliminate the capital gains and the current cap that's been locked for a long time now, at a quarter million per person 50,050,000, 500,000.

I'm sorry for a couple to recognize that that's also losing value because Congress hasn't paid attention to the inflation effect of that.

And, you know, it's interesting that our whole country's housing market is based on the principle of higher prices.

There's never a bad time to buy a house.

Not on the Walmart principle.

Lower prices.

>> David, thank you.

Appreciate the phone call.

that's David Cay Johnston who's written a lot about taxes.

And I think he's still working on a new American tax code.

Call me back at some point, David, and tell me if that's going to get published.

>> I'm still waiting for the next tranche of documents to be thrown over the transom of his.

>> I know that's David.

>> And let me also say something, because Mark said, you know, you didn't want to be political.

This is not necessarily an inherently political conversation.

We're analyzing what the what this administration is proposing, just as we would just as we did a previous administration.

And it's just a matter of functionally looking at what is going to help people and what's maybe just going to nibble at the edges versus what gets to the heart of the problem.

That's why our guests are here.

They're not here to be political.

We are looking at proposals that do come from a current administration.

So having said that, we're going to dig back into some of these other proposals, and we're going to talk in our second half hour about the state of the housing market.

Listeners, perhaps you know something about the state of the housing market.

In fact, I've already have a couple of your emails to that effect in which we will read in our second half hour.

You can email connections@wxxi.org wxxi.org connections@wxxi.org.

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So all right, Mark, let me ask all three of you then you keep talking about housing supply.

What do you want to see happen to get housing supply ratcheted up here?

>> Great question.

we need we need less restrictive zoning ordinances.

we do need, more innovative.

I think tax proposals that will benefit builders so that because right now it's impossible for a builder to create a home for first time.

>> Buyer because the math doesn't.

>> Work.

>> Because the math does not work.

So there's got to be some kind of incentives for builders to actually want to create a property, a 1500 square foot property here in Rochester.

Let's let's call it new build, $250 per square foot.

Would my colleagues agree?

Yeah.

>> About that.

>> That seems low.

>> But yeah yeah, yeah.

Right.

Exactly.

It does seem.

>> Low, but 1500 square feet.

Multiply that by $250 per square foot.

You're looking at what, $300,000 plus another hundred and $75,000.

>> Anything under 400?

>> Exactly.

And that doesn't even include the lot.

So throw another $50,000 on top of there for lot $425,000 or thereabouts to build a 1500 square foot house.

Yeah, there's no benefit there for a builder.

So they're only interested in purchasing.

And what's interesting is that $425,000 minimum, you can actually buy a 1400 square foot house for what, $300,000 thereabouts.

Yeah.

Existing.

Yeah.

So, so, so there's a delta.

There.

>> Are 125.

Exactly.

>> You're not going to build new.

But what do you make of what the city of Rochester has touted.

And they've told us it's early days.

They want to scale up.

But they're talking about factory built homes, mark new heights, a couple of different places.

Is is that any kind of for this problem, or is that chipping away at.

>> The edges?

>> I do think that it is a bomb for the I mean, listen, every little bit is going to help.

And we're starting to see I mean, I wouldn't be surprised.

And actually, Ken Marvel, a good friend of mine, last night texted me and regarded my latest newsletter, and he brought up a great point, which is maybe we need to start to see more multi-family homes and which siblings are purchasing.

They're living on each in a unit, or we're starting to see friends who are pooling their money so that each of them is purchasing together multi-generational families, that type of thing.

So every little bit is going to help.

Look at downtown Rochester.

My God, let's start to convert some of this office space that is just sitting empty.

Let's start to convert that.

Let's make let's incentivize builders.

And the governor is going to be in town on Friday.

>> That's right.

>> so it'll be interesting to see what it is that she has to say about just some of these issues.

>> All right.

Lainey, what do you make of some of what the city is doing with factory built homes?

>> I think it's interesting.

I mean, I think, you know, I agree with Mark that any anything and everything at this point to get more, you know, we we even have a shortage when it comes to rentals, right.

We have a it's so we're focused.

The three of us are focused on selling real estate.

Not as much rentals but some rentals.

But there's still a shortage there.

So when it comes to all housing, we need more more of it.

Period.

I think it'll be interesting to see how that goes.

the factory built houses because I think there's, there's pros and cons, but getting more housing overall is a is a fantastic thing in our area.

>> Jason.

>> Everything the city is doing to promote homeownership and what they're leading to is amazing.

And it should continue and needs to continue.

We're just so short.

Back to supply.

We're so short that it's just making very little progress to it.

So I echo what my colleague said in terms of just units, period, housing units period is what we need.

Apartments, assisted living, senior lifestyle living centers, you know, buildings, townhomes.

>> It you don't need.

more places.

You don't need a dozen, you need hundreds, if not several thousand, right?

>> Yeah.

>> Right.

And it's not just and I agree with Mark.

It's a lot of it is is trying to incentivize the builders.

But we also we also have a we have a shortage when it comes to people who are in that industry.

Now in terms of building houses, I mean, for so long we have, you know, everybody's got to go to college, go to college, go to college, and a lot of people have debt.

We have a significant lack of people who are in that industry to build these houses.

If we ever get to the point where we're ready to build.

>> I think incentive to builders can, you know, reducing the friction to building for these builders is going to go a long way, and there's just too much process, too many, too much red tape to cut through.

>> Too much NIMBYism.

>> And they're in business.

They want profit.

That's okay.

And it's just a matter of like, there's not enough profit for them to be incentivized to to build at mass is what this market needs.

Like we're we're so short on inventory.

>> Well, and I want to say just for listeners who may have missed previous conversations with the city, when they do talk about the factory built homes, neighborhoods, there's nine in Marketview Heights.

There's a dozen or more in different parts going on here, not far from where we're sitting right now.

They recognized that if we're sitting here two years from now, three years from now, and it's still a dozen, 20, 25, that that will not have done it.

Hardly anything.

their goal is to take that and scale it, and we're going to see if they can.

But you know it.

Our guests are making it clear we have a much bigger gap to fill.

So it's a long process.

Let's take this only break.

We'll come back, talk to you about a few more of these proposals coming from the federal government on helping home buyers, home owners trying to defray some of those costs.

And then I'm going to ask them for a little bit.

I mean, no one's going to predict the future, but I'll ask them what they think 2026 looks like.

If you're sitting here thinking, I would love to buy this year, I would love to finally sell this year.

I'd love to get in a position where it didn't feel out of reach.

Let us know what you're thinking about and they'll tell you what they are seeing.

We'll come right back with Mark Siwiec, Jason Mancuso Lanie Bittner all talking about the local housing market.

Coming up in our second hour, the Special Olympics, New York Winter games are returning to the Rochester area next month, and we're going to talk to some competitors.

We're going to talk to local students who are covering the games.

We're going to talk about what accessible healthcare means for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities, and how the Special Olympics New York Winter games is aiming to help people in ways that are more than just sporting.

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>> Bobjohnsonautogroup.com this is Connections.

I'm Evan Dawson Greg emails to say I would love to sell my house this year.

That would mean I have to buy a house.

That's the problem.

Greg is exactly right.

I mean, if you own multiple houses, you're in a pretty advantageous position with the housing market.

In recent years if you wanted to sell, because then you don't have to move.

But it's easy for us to say, hey, it's great.

Look at the value of your house.

It's never been higher.

Well, great.

Sell it then.

Where are you going?

Greg's point is he's going nowhere this year.

He thinks probably even though he would love to sell.

>> It's a.

>> He has.

>> To buy.

>> It's a simple.

I think the both of you would agree.

Things are moving so quickly.

Again, we continue to find ourselves in the top five municipalities in the country in terms of the number of days it takes to sell a property.

You find an awesome house, you consummate that deal, and then you immediately put your house on the market for sale.

And and you sell your existing residence.

Is there enough inventory?

Still not enough.

>> How many days does it take right now to sell a house on our market?

>> Between 8 and 12 is what I'm reading.

>> Yeah.

8 to 12.

Yep.

>> That's I think.

>> It's very fast.

And I think, you know, I think actually the last time that Mark and I were here is I had a little bit different take.

Is it not.

Everything is going gangbusters like it, like it was during Covid and for the, you know, probably 20, 21, 22 I think in 23 is when I started to see a little bit of shift that it's not everything going gangbusters off the market.

That there's a lot is.

Don't get me wrong, a lot is, but there's still a little pockets.

And if you're patient and if you're digging, you can find things that aren't going crazy.

As a buyer.

>> In the last six, 12 months, have we seen it slow down the number of 100 over asking, triple digits over asking.

Has that slowed Laney.

>> I think so, I think from what.

>> I'm seeing.

>> Happening, from what it's it's definitely still happening.

I think there's I think there's pockets where it's happening.

Anything that's completely updated, that's still going crazy.

A lot of single level living is going crazy.

And then under certain price point of first time home buyers, you get you have more of those buyers out there competing.

So those are the three buckets that I see where there's the most competition.

And still, if you're a seller, still things are crazy.

>> If you're not in that bucket, maybe it's a little more sane, right?

>> Well, as a buyer, yes, it's a little bit more sane.

And as a seller you have to have a little bit more patience and a little bit more trust in your in the real estate agent that you're working with to kind of walk you through what to do to get your house to be in that spot.

>> I'm wondering whether or not there's a reset that takes place December 31st of every year, and the first few weeks of this.

Let's go back to na.

Na says that we are going to be the second hottest real estate market in the United States.

Now.

behind these things, I read these things and I'm like, whatever.

>> Who's number one?

Hartford.

Hartford.

>> Hartford, Connecticut.

>> We're number two.

>> But number one, first time home buyer market is inadequate.

according to Realtor.com.

>> Yeah.

Right.

Right.

Yeah.

>> So, so so I oftentimes don't you know, I look at this like, well, that's interesting, but I'm not quite sure how valid it is.

But if the first few weeks of this year are any indication of what's going to play out for the remainder of the first six months of this year, Cory Moran from the team, you know, Cory.

Cory wrote an offer on a property a week ago Monday.

This property was in Penfield, $389,000.

listed listed.

It sold within five days with 23 offers.

Seven of those offers came in over $500,000.

So we may be.

>> Surprise!

Yeah, yeah.

>> You know, deja vu all over again.

I mean, so this may be another year because I think the buyers are starting to see some relief in terms of interest rates coming down.

A full percentage point, a percentage in a quarter.

So I think they're starting to and family families have changed enough.

Family dynamics have changed enough.

So I think that we're going to start to see some of this insanity playing out again.

I could be wrong, but it only lasts the first six months of the year.

I'd love to talk about the remaining six months of the year, but Jason has something that he wants.

>> To say.

>> There's a psychological effect to the market that has played out over really many years now, but in the past couple of years with rates, you know, touching that 7% plus mark for a little bit, coming off that, as Mark said, you know, a full point lower right now, it's going to continue to fluctuate in this low six range.

Maybe high fives this year or next year is what the predictions are.

But there's just a we're consumers are getting used to what it is.

Right.

And then that psychological effect that that plays out in turn could lead to more of these decisions getting made.

I found it very interesting.

I read a Housingwire article previewing the year ahead, and they listed, you know, the the top factors to the housing market and life events was one.

>> Of them.

Yep.

>> Yeah.

And it's like that had to be on the list.

Do we have to talk that there should be a life event in order to, to make a move with your family and purchase a home in this, in this environment.

Right.

And it got me thinking that, you know, the, the, the Covid years where it was the interest was so the interest rates were so low.

It was so much more affordable that you didn't really need as much of a life event to play out in order to make a move.

And decisions were made like that a lot.

And now, you know, then then the interest rates rose and prices continue to go up.

And it just, you know, affordability crept in.

And now here we are to where moves get made when they need to get made.

And it's not like let's just buy a house today.

You feel like it honey?

Yeah.

Go for it.

Right.

That's that's not how housing goes.

>> But I think the interest rates, I think the fact that interest rates did change so much in, in 22 is a huge factor there.

Right.

Is it?

People refinanced in that you know in the threes or they bought at that point.

Now it's going to take a life event for them to say, okay, I'm fine with moving on to the six which is doubling their interest rate.

It's still affordable.

Traditionally looking historically interest rates are, you know, anywhere from 6 to 9% historically.

So it's not high.

It's just a lot higher than it was before in the past few years.

So people are a little bit freaked out.

So I can see why people are saying, okay, I need a life event that's going to move me out of this house.

And those interest rates.

>> Yeah, yeah.

I mean, as we've discussed in the past, you've got three kids, you know, you bought the house when you were a single guy or when you were first married.

It's 1500 square feet and suddenly you're married.

You've got three kids and you, the five of you can't live in that 1500 square foot house.

You need to move on.

An interesting statistics that I saw the other day, the number of homeowners, the number of mortgages that are outstanding right now, in excess of 6% is now greater than the number of mortgages, less than 3%.

So it's it's started.

And again, less than 3%.

so it's slowly starting to change.

>> Okay.

>> Well slowly.

>> Let me grab some feedback from listeners.

Keith in Victor on the phone next.

Hi, Keith.

Go ahead.

>> Hey, thanks for taking my call.

Yep.

what are the options builders could look at is build more houses that can grow without making a bigger footprint.

For example, you could build Cape Cod, where the upstairs isn't finished, just roughed in.

And as a family grows, the homeowner finishes it off.

Or the same goes for split levels.

When we bought our second house, it was a load split, so it was a narrow lot, but it was deep and it had four levels, one being the basement, and then it had the traditional three levels and you had the option to buy the third level finished or unfinished.

we opted for the finish, but that was available and it was much cheaper.

So.

>> So what's what's a possible solution that you see?

Keith.

>> So in other words, we had a 20 200 square foot split level.

We could have bought it completely, built out 2200ft, or we could have bought it.

Not having the lower level built out.

And that would have been 700ft of finishing that we wouldn't have to pay for.

>> So more options.

Yeah, right.

>> So as a family grows, they could build it out.

And the lower level had three bedrooms, a bath, a laundry room and a family room.

But the upstairs was still 1500 square feet.

>> All right.

So unfinished homes for DIY completion.

Yes or no, guys, what do you think?

>> I think it's a great idea.

I mean, it does help, but again, how do we build the house that he describes currently we.

>> Don't takes a builder who.

>> Yeah can afford to put a less restrictive zoning ordinances, et cetera., et cetera.

So I think it's a great idea and I think it's very innovative.

but again.

>> Got to get over that, that cost hump of.

>> The cost and the red tape and everything else.

Yeah.

>> Okay.

Agreed, agreed.

>> I was thinking of okay, can the banks finance it?

Right?

Or are we going to run into appraisal issues with the value of what the builder, you know, still wants to charge and profit from?

One of the things that that that led me, you know, thinking on that topic was it's more of a national trend, but just the concept of, of ADUs and.

>> Right.

>> Yeah.

is an accessory dwelling units.

Right?

And just, you know, that's a big trend nationally.

And if you can, you know, almost think of it as an in-law type of setup, right.

If you can put that in your backyard.

And now teenager or you know, your parents are moving in or you're moving in or whatever it is, and that becomes a unit.

And, you know, again, we need housing units of all kinds.

>> So that's a change in zoning, which I think the governor I think a few years ago wanted a statewide allow ADUs.

But the towns got very upset that.

>> It becomes a very parochial sort of a Nimby issue.

Yeah.

>> Which is not my backyard.

Exactly.

You guys use Nimby a lot here, but not everybody knows what Nimby is.

>> Not in my backyard issue.

Thank you.

Laney.

That's a good note for me.

It is.

>> You guys.

You used it a lot last time.

I was like, I don't think everybody knows what Nimby is, but that Adu was a huge not in my backyard issue.

And the towns sort of people in the towns and the towns themselves revolted and said, you know, don't tell us how to zone, but it is a zoning change to Marc's point is, some of these things aren't going to get done unless people are more willing to allow for some zoning changes and some changes in how we currently do it.

And it's I think that's tough for people in saying this is how it's been done, or I don't want to affect my my values negatively.

And I'm concerned that an Adu may do that.

>> So Mark, you brought up NIMBYism again.

Not in my backyard.

How do you go from a Nimby mindset to a yimby?

Yes, in my backyard mindset.

>> The there are any number of different ways of approaching it.

I really I think that in some ways some of it is.

And the huge problem from my perspective is our elected officials and town zoning boards but I do think at the same time that builders need to do a better job of flooding these zoning board meetings with those who want to build.

I've had conversations with builders like I've got 200 people that are excited about building.

They're interested in building.

You go to the zoning board and you've got eight people saying, not in my backyard.

Good Laney.

Yeah, listen.

>> Just just a note.

>> You guys know I love that.

>> You used it a lot last time.

And I think that's what it was.

>> That's what the zoning board is afraid of.

It's the people in their town.

Right?

>> Exactly.

So you get eight people saying, not in my backyard.

and and it is not passed.

I think if the builders were to get the 200, potential builder home buyers to actually show up and flood these towns, I think that goes a long way.

But also, there have got to be incentives for we need to educate these town supervisors.

We need to educate these boards.

Why wouldn't you want.

Of course, you know, there are issues like traffic, et cetera, et cetera.

But why wouldn't you want another 250 properties in your town?

You're increasing the tax base.

>> Okay.

>> So yeah, we we are we are one of the reasons the.

>> Lobbying and education.

>> Yes.

One of the reasons that the federal government created FHA and VA and Sunny mortgages was because they know that the more people who own property, rather than renting, the stronger our country is.

The stronger communities are, the stronger our democracy is.

>> But the leadership and the for example, just in the recent campaign, we talked about this in the town of Pittsford, the leadership has said this will change the character of the town.

It's not what the people want.

>> But they already have laws in Pittsford that say that if you're a builder and you have 100 acres, that is going to be dedicated toward a new subdivision, 50 of those acres need to be set aside as green space.

Terrific.

They need to be educated about the fact that they are going to be a stronger community, at least from my perspective.

They're a stronger community.

if there are more people who are building within that town.

>> Okay.

>> Can I ask a clarifying was that was that for 80 years okay.

>> Oh, okay.

Thank you.

Okay.

>> Because I thought that because there's really no space.

There's not much space left to build in Pittsford.

There's still some farmland.

>> Right there.

>> There's not a ton of space left.

So I figured it was about 80 years because I did.

When that came out again from the governor, Pittsford was one of the areas that I saw that was people were really upset about it.

Yeah.

It was not just it was not just the supervisor.

It was it was.

Oh, no.

>> Yeah.

This isn't about one person.

>> I didn't I didn't say, yeah, I just was clarifying.

>> That clarity to.

And I don't want people to think it's it did come up in the recent campaign, which they had a supervisor campaign and a town board race.

and some seats changed hands and some didn't.

But it wasn't just one person.

I mean, there's a there's a lot of strong feelings about this.

And Pittsford is not the only place where there's strong feelings about this.

It's an example.

>> Yeah.

And again, ADUs I think are very, very different from a new subdivision.

Yeah.

So I want to make sure that to your point, I want to make sure that we're distinguishing between the two ADUs okay.

So if you want to restrict ADUs, you.

>> Know, but there's a but there's a significant difference in that conversation because you have ADUs in terms of affordability, are right in terms of the rules.

Is it is it?

You're only allowed like the zoning changes, it's only allowed to be a family member that lives in there.

Are you allowed to rent it out?

Am I allowed to, you know, can I put an Adu on my lot and then can I rent it to somebody else so it becomes right?

How do we open our minds to, you know, is it a difference in terms of people like, are they concerned about who's going to come live like, right.

What's what is that conversation.

Right.

>> Is it suddenly an Airbnb et cetera.

>> Right, right.

>> Anything you want to add there?

>> I was just going to say there's a push and pull to everything in life.

Right.

And we've talked about it a couple of times.

We talked about the dynamics between lower monthly payments and equity.

And, you know, there's got to be a balance to things.

And on this topic, it's just, you know, people want to move, but they can't but they don't want to allow, you know, zoning changes to to allow for more units to be created, to allow for more people to move like it's I'm just thinking of, you know, you can't have your cake and eat it too all the time, right?

So there's a balance to it.

>> Well stated.

>> some more feedback from listeners.

David and Ovid has been over the last couple of years talking to us during these kind of conversations.

he's listening on WEOS Fingerlakes public radio, and he wants to move to Geneva, and it's still hard, he says after working two jobs for many years, I'm finally at a time in my life where I have saved a substantial down payment for the small ranch house I want in Geneva for a retirement home.

But there's no inventory in the market to choose from.

The only houses for sale, with very few exceptions, are larger Cape houses on the east side of town.

It's very frustrating.

Yeah, I mean, I yeah.

>> Absolutely, 100%.

First of all, congratulations on saving for that down payment.

Yeah, that is huge.

And that is a commitment and good for him for doing that.

that's the first thing.

Second of all I mean again, if he's not working with a realtor, you know, contact a realtor because you never know.

Right?

Is as I'm sure all three of us have, have worked with clients where we know something's coming up or, you know, a situation where maybe a seller says, I don't want to put it on the market, right.

I want to sell it, you know, privately or for whatever.

There's so there's certain situations.

So you never know.

So reach out.

If he has not reach out to a realtor, talk to a realtor about what you're looking for.

Somebody who works in that Geneva area and can keep their eyes open and let you know if something pops up or if they hear something or whatever, because he's done the hard work right now.

It's just maybe the frustrating work that he has coming up.

>> Yeah.

>> Right.

Guys.

I'm I've got so many emails and I've got so much more I want to talk about.

Oh, my, we gotta fit a lot in here.

So I'm going to go quick.

I'll get as many as I can.

And we haven't even covered all the material here.

But Roger writes to say let's bring back the Sears home.

There were a lot of those still around, even though they were built long ago.

I don't know what he's talking about.

>> I think you could buy a home out of a catalog.

I think basically it was it's similar, like a factory built, I think.

Yes.

I think it's similar to what the city is proposing because I had a client, I don't know, probably like 7 or 8 years ago who was like, I would love to do that.

And I was like, what are you talking about?

So we had this whole conversation about.

>> You would literally, back in the 1920s, open up the Sears catalog.

And you were like, I want these kind of windows.

I want this kind of hardwood flooring.

I want this kind of molding.

And it would all be delivered into your front yard.

prefab, prefab and a lot of.

>> Similar to factory built that we're talking about.

>> And a lot of arts and crafts architecture and homes were built in that style or in that manner.

>> So maybe in a way, Roger, we're kind of trending back there.

Yeah, yeah.

Jamie wants to know what impact will propose changes to restrict or do away with vacation rental homes in Rochester have on the housing market.

>> If you remove if you remove those, there's more inventory for people to buy those homes.

Right.

So currently buyers are competing with investors or other, you know, whether it's a mom and pop investor or an institutional investor that are buying those and then renting those out versus that inventory is now available for somebody to say, hey, I'm going to buy that, and I'm going to live in it and build the equity.

>> Okay.

hope that helps there.

And, Diane wrote in to say that first time buyers forget that taxes increase every year.

>> It's a big thing.

It's a big thing to make sure that you're thinking ahead on your financial, you know, outlook on life when you when you become a homeowner and, and you know that that that aspect of budgeting for not just taxes, but you know, the routine maintenance that needs to be done, I think it's often overlooked.

And I think it's something that we as realtors, you know, need to embrace even more in our industry and in our profession to make sure that people are protected.

The way I've been thinking about it lately, their career is a homeowner, right?

It's not just this one transaction of like, okay, you're buying a home and you did it, and congratulations.

See you later.

It's we've got to make sure they know what they're getting into ten years from now.

As extreme as that may seem, but you don't want to get a call that, like, I didn't know I need to replace a roof and it's going to cost me 20 grand, and I can't now it's just open and leaking.

And I have a waterfall.

Yeah.

>> but at the same time, rent also increases every year.

and there's no tax benefit that one enjoys as a result of being a renter.

but there's, you know, there were enormous benefits, obviously, when you're a homeowner.

>> Right.

But our taxes are significant here.

Yeah.

So it is it's absolutely 100% something that that a buyer and a homeowner needs to be aware of is that, you know, they need to they need to manage those taxes, whether they pay them in their monthly payment in an escrow, or they pay them on their own.

It's an increase that will that will see them.

>> All right.

Briefly.

Politico also reports that the federal government is moving toward banning large investors from acquiring single family homes.

Before the program, you said, happens in Rochester.

>> Yeah, we do see where there's a lot.

>> Of I say the region here, it happens in the region.

>> Yeah, it happens in the region because we're again, we're one of the most affordable places to buy a home in the country.

So from an investment standpoint, right, your return on investment is going to be much higher if you're buying a more affordable home.

And if you increase the rent, that sort of thing.

>> Does this proposal make sense to you?

>> I yes and no, because I think from the large corporations, I still would love for the opportunity for small mom and pops to investors to be able to do that, because I think that's a totally different element.

Right.

>> But but the number of institutional investors, those who own 1000 units or more, represent only 2% of all the purchases.

And and so this is actually what you're what you're seeing.

>> In our market or.

>> Nationally and internationally.

Only 2%.

So it's not particularly large.

but this was the one.

So this morning, 830 in Davos, the president is what you're referencing.

So this morning, 830 in Davos, this was the big proposal the the president brought to the table.

But you know what was missing from that, Evan.

You know what was missing from that proposal.

Thank you.

>> I knew.

>> It so.

>> Much I knew it I passed that test.

They've also said that Fannie and Freddie have started carrying out the president's direction to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds in an effort to lower home loan rates.

and the white House says this is not going to be like 2008 because they're under they're not underwriting the same kinds of mortgages.

They feel very confident in their position.

You don't agree?

>> so two things.

One, it's only going to have approximately a quarter point reduction in in 30 year mortgage rates.

A quarter point isn't really moving the needle, but it does open us up to the same concerns that led to the 2008 Great Recession.

So again, I think I think it's window dressing.

It doesn't it doesn't address the issue.

Sorry.

It doesn't address the issue of of supply.

So I, I'm a little I'm a little concerned about that.

And what's really interesting is this was proposed, what a week and a half ago, $200 billion in interest rates did in part, start to fall to 6% as a result of that?

You know what ended up happening?

All this nonsense about Greenland.

And just over the course of the past two days 30 year mortgage rates have shot up again.

>> Yeah.

>> They have.

and so the the bond market is not liking the instability that is emanating from the Oval Office right now.

And these proposals by the $200 billion and other proposals, man.

>> Bond markets like stability, that's for sure.

Absolutely.

Jason, briefly, what do you.

>> Think the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae each have predictions through 2027?

One is predicting at quarter for 2027.

The interest rate mortgage interest rates would be around six 364, and then the other is at 5.9.

So we're just in this.

I, I admittedly guilty of spending too much time trying to predict what rates are going to do.

Yeah.

And it's just.

>> Like that's why I don't bother from.

>> Two weeks ago.

Yeah.

Like oh yeah okay.

We're going to get downward pressure.

And then you have this week and it's like right back to where, where it was and higher actually.

So it's just just we're going to be in this range okay.

>> So as we wrap here this hour has flown by.

And thank you all for a great conversation.

inventory is still a big problem.

Jason, what do you what's the short description of what you expect 2026 to be like in our housing market?

>> I would say very similar to the way it's been.

It's going to be a competitive market.

We're we're still we were predicted nationally in 25 to, you know, rebound in terms of total transactions.

And it actually went down just by 1000 homes nationally.

But we didn't rebound.

We're still at the bottom of the barrel of the market.

We don't have inventory.

We have too many too much demand.

>> Crazy okay.

>> Agree.

Yeah.

More the same.

Not enough.

Agree as much as.

>> Need more inventory.

>> Need more inventory.

Need more people to to be willing to sell their houses.

Which is again where are you going?

I mean, I have this conversation with my brother, all right.

>> Because that's what Greg emailed.

He said, where am I going?

>> Where am I going?

>> Where am I going this year?

That's what David and Ovid is feeling.

Where am I going?

So.

>> first six months are going to be awesome.

You know, a lot of activity.

Still very, very difficult for buyers.

Second half of the year, if you want to buy or sell, do it in the first six months.

Because as we draw closer to midterm elections, there is an inherent instability that is going to be injected into the market.

Americans don't like to buy or sell property during times of uncertainty.

>> That's Mark Siwiec with Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec.

Thank you.

Mark Lanie Bittner with RE/MAX Plus.

Thank you.

Laney Jason Mancuso with the Anthony Butera Team at Keller Williams Realty.

Thank you for being here.

Thank you.

More Connections coming up.

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