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A friend of mine, David Sawyer, and I, hosted a dinner for then-Governor
Clinton. There were maybe 12 or 15 people there. We had a three or
three-and-a-half hour discussion of economic and other issues, and I left,
thinking to myself that this was a man who had a really good understanding of
the issues we faced. In that context, he had internalized the need to deal
with the deficit which, in my judgment, at least, at that time was the single
most important threat we had to our economic well-being.
I was very impressed by the dinner that we had. I felt that our economy was in
morass. I felt that, if we didn't face the issues that were in front of us,
that our economy could well remain in morass for a long, long time. I'd been an
active Democrat anyway, so it all came together and, and I got quite
involved.
Having been involved in Democratic campaigns over quite some period of time, I
knew most of the people around the campaign. What happened, as I recollect it,
is that over time, a small group of people, perhaps half a dozen people or so,
started to get called regularly by the campaign to talk about the economic
issues as the campaign itself worked its way through these issues. Without
anybody saying so, we became a group of about a half a dozen people that got
identified, both internally and in the press, as the outside economic advisers
to the governor.
The New York primary period was an exceedingly difficult period for the
governor. . . . But, as it turned out, things worked out as they had hoped.
A lot of people on Wall Street basically felt that we had to have a dramatic
change in economic policy, and that that dramatic change had to be in the
direction of fiscal discipline, if we're going to work our way out of these
problems. And that basically was what Governor Clinton was talking about in
the campaign.
It had been, traditionally. On the other hand, the federal debt had quadrupled
from 1980 to 1992 under a Republican administration. Governor Clinton, as a
function of his own convictions about what our country needed to do
economically, campaigned on a plank of serious deficit reduction, as well as
investing in our people through education and the rest. But deficit reduction
was very central in his approach to dealing with the economic issues during the
campaign.
Some time after the election, during either the late November or early December
part of the transition, the governor invited me down to speak with him. It
basically was an interview, although it wasn't labeled as such, and I spent
about two hours with him. It was a very interesting experience, because we
talked almost not at all about economic issues. Instead, it was a broad-ranging
discussion about all kinds of things. And I realized afterwards that the
president-elect was trying to figure out, not where I was on economic issues --
he probably knew that at that point -- but, rather, what I would be like to
have in an administration and how effectively I would work with other people.
He was enormously focused on the notion that, for his administration to be
effective in the economic arena, people had to work together as a team, as
opposed to having the kind of internal warfare that has so often characterized
past administrations.
During the transition, I was in Frankfurt, Germany, on business, and the phone rang about 2:30 in the morning. I woke up and it was Warren Christopher, who was leading the transition team. He said, "The president-elect would like you to be head of the new National Economic Council," and I said, "Chris, I would be delighted," and I went back to sleep, and I was on board.
For a long, long time, I had thought it would be extraordinarily interesting to
see what the world looked like from inside a White House, assuming that one had
a reasonable job and an effective relationship with the president. And I also
cared enormously about the issues. When this opportunity came along, it, it
brought those two things together, and so, for me, there was never any question
about doing it.
It was relatively active, I would say. During the early days of the
transition, in January 1993, and then the first couple of months in the White
House, from the point of view of economic policy, it was one relatively
continuous process.
It's probably a fair but understated characterization. When you think of the
enormous amount that was accomplished during that period, it's really quite
remarkable. The president, from a standing start, put together a government.
We put together a budget. The budget, in effect, represented a broad-based
economic strategy that represented really quite a dramatic change from where
the country had been. And the president launched that economic strategy to the
nation with his speech to the Congress in February.
The Bush administration had put out their last budget estimates. They were much higher deficit estimates than we had expected, and it was clear that that presented a whole new challenge to the president, to the administration. So we met on January 7, 1993, during the transition, in Little Rock. It was a newly named economic team -- with all the principal political advisers, with the president, the vice president, Hillary -- and it was about a six-and-a-half hour meeting. And I remember before going into the meeting, one of his principal political advisers said to me, "You all are going to recommend very strong deficit reduction. But that means the president is going to have to defer doing a lot of other things that he thinks are extremely important. You can't possibly expect him to make that decision at this meeting." So we got to the meeting, we sat down, and I would say about a half an hour or so into the meeting, when we had made our basic recommendation, and we're beginning the discussion, he stopped. And he said, "Look. There are a lot of things that I think we need to do, but the threshold issue is the deficit. Until we deal with that, nothing else is going to work, and we're not going to do the rest of what we want to do. So let's take that as our threshold issue and then, within that context, let's do as much else as we can." That set the tone for the rest of the development of that budget, and the economic strategy. . . .
... And it was that basic decision that framed the rest of the development of
the budget and the carrying forward of the economic strategy from that point
forward.
It never framed itself to me as a debate. It framed itself to me as a question
of, what should we do economically? The thing that most struck me, at the
time, was that the president-elect obviously had internalized what needed to be
done in this economy, at least from the perspective of most of us on the
economic team.
The president's view was not that he was abandoning anything. The president's view was that the circumstances were substantially worse than he or any of us thought they were. Even though it was a very tough path to take, politically, if he didn't do the politically tough thing -- which is deal with the deficit -- then the thing that he was elected to do, which is get the economy back on track, wouldn't happen. And only way he could get the other things he wanted to do done would be to get the economy back on track.
. . . There were certainly disagreements. But the disagreements were
predominantly around taking on this very difficult political decision. But the
president said, "This is what we have to do, this is what I was elected to do,
and this is what I'm going to do."
There were differences of view. At times, they became more heated, and, at
times, less heated. But all the reports notwithstanding, we basically were on
the track, once the president made the decision.
There was no tacit agreement, some of the written reports to the contrary, notwithstanding, and I was there for the entire process. When we met with the president-elect on January 7, what we said was that if we have fiscal discipline, and we bring the deficit down, that is obviously contractionary. That'll reduce the rate of growth.
On the other hand, if interest rates go down as a result, then that will
stimulate growth, and we thought that the beneficial effect of lower interest
rates would outweigh the contractionary impact of the deficit reduction. We
also said to the president-elect, that there were two critical reactions in all
of this. One would be the bond market. This program would not work unless it
was credible with the bond market, and therefore it had to be real and had to
be seen as real. And, secondly, it was obviously very important what the Fed
would do. But there was absolutely no explicit or implicit agreement. . . . We
talked about how the Fed would react. But there was neither an explicit nor an
implicit agreement with the chairman.
There was a series of meetings that began almost from the first day that we actually in the White House. They were held in the Roosevelt Room of the West Wing, and they were long. But I think they were a remarkable testament to the process the president set up -- this National Economic Council process, and to the president and the vice president in terms of their seriousness of purpose. We went through that budget, and for most of us, including the president, this was the first time we'd been through a federal budget. We went through it major item by major item, all it to determine what should be reduced and, and what, in some cases, should be increased, and how to get to our spending reduction targets.
And at the same time, this was being done in the context of knowing that there
were certain targets that we had to reach. I think that, intellectually,
substantively, and, ultimately, politically, it was a remarkable process.
No, I don't think so. I think it actually served him exceedingly well. For one thing, I think a lot of those decisions could only have been made by a president, because we were cutting a lot of things that had constituencies. There was a reason why the federal debt had quadrupled in the 12 years from 1980 to 1992, and the reason is that every program has a lot of political friends and it is very tough, politically, to cut any program.
And here we were cutting many of them, and I think it took the president's
involvement and the willingness to make tough political decisions to get where
we had to get. Secondly, it gave us all a grounding in the budget that then
served us, and served him exceedingly well each successive year in dealing with
budget issues, because we'd been through it once in such detail.
I think my role was to do what the president had envisioned the NEC doing --
get everybody to the same table, draw up the agenda each day so that we could
keep on track, and try to keep the process moving along. That was really my
most fundamental role. I also had points of view, and I felt perfectly
entitled to express my point of view. But, at the same time, everybody else
was expressing theirs, so that we all had our views in front of him at the same
time. He could sort out the pros and cons of each decision he had to make.
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