He’s already taken the Penguin Plunge. Now it appears Scott Brown is ready to ride the 2014 wave.
The Associated Press reports the former Republican senator from Massachusetts is expected to announce as early as Friday that he will form an exploratory committee to challenge New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
Brown’s stunning victory in the January 2010 Massachusetts special election to replace the late Sen. Edward Kennedy foreshadowed troubles to come for congressional Democrats in that year’s midterm elections, driven in large part by the backlash to President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul. With his potential Granite State run this year, Brown would once again be looking to capitalize on voter discontent with the plan.
The Affordable Care Act took center stage in this week’s special election in Florida, where the winner, Republican David Jolly, hammered Democrat Alex Sink for her support of the law. Jolly’s victory bolstered the GOP’s strategy to focus on the health care law and has raised hopes about the party’s chances of expanding their majority in the House and taking back control of the Senate from Democrats.
Senate Democrats must defend seven seats in states that the president lost in the 2012 campaign, with six of those defeats coming by double-digit margins. New Hampshire is not on that list, as the president bested Romney there by nearly six percentage points. But if Republicans were able to put the Granite State in play it would signal a surge in the party’s direction.
Recent polling gives Shaheen an early advantage, with a Suffolk University survey showing her up 13 points on Brown, 52 percent to 39 percent. That comes even as the poll has the president’s approval rating at 40 percent, and 52 percent of New Hampshire voters saying they believed the health care law was “generally bad” for the state.
Brown also faces the challenge of running against an established New Hampshire political brand while he just recently relocated to the state from neighboring Massachusetts. In the Suffolk poll 11 percent of respondents offered the term “carpetbagger” when asked for the first word or phrase they associated with Brown’s name.
Brown is scheduled to address the Northeast Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua on Friday afternoon, the latest move in his courtship of New Hampshire conservatives.
The Associated Press’ Steve Peoples details Brown’s recent outreach to Granite State Republicans:
Brown spent much of the past two weeks calling key New Hampshire Republican officials and influential GOP activists, saying he was going to run and seeking their support. At the same time, Brown’s camp has quietly begun offering paid positions to Republican operatives for a prospective New Hampshire campaign.
Several people involved in the discussions said some in the GOP establishment remain skeptical given the former Republican senator’s recent track record. The 54-year-old Brown angered Massachusetts Republicans last year after indicating he would run in the state’s special U.S. Senate election, only to change his mind late in the process.
The New Hampshire Union Leader’s John DiStaso, meanwhile, notes that Brown has doled out $29,000 to various GOP committees in advance of his appearance Friday:
We’ve learned Brown has issued contributions from his The People’s Seat PAC of $5,000 to the state party, $5,000 to the state Senate Republican PAC, $5,000 to the House Republican PAC, $1,000 to each of the 10 county committees and $1,000 each to the Manchester, Nashua and Concord Republican committees.
This is in addition to $15,000 Brown donated to the NHGOP in 2013 and 2014.
For Republicans, Brown’s possible entry into the New Hampshire Senate contest would give the party a high-profile candidate in a state that currently favors Democrats. Whether his candidacy would genuinely expand the map for Republicans is an open question, but at the very least it might force Democrats to move additional resources into the Granite State to help protect Shaheen; money that could be used to help red state Democrats in Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska.
A note to our readers: The Morning Line will take a brief hiatus next week and return Tuesday, March 25. We’ll be joined then by the new head of the NewsHour’s politics team, Domenico Montanaro.
In a meeting with Hispanic lawmakers Thursday, Mr. Obama revealed that he has ordered the Homeland Security secretary to conduct a review of his administration’s deportation policies.
The Senate reached a bipartisan deal Thursday to renew federal unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless. The deal includes retroactive payments to those who were cut off when the insurance program expired last December.
Backing up Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein’s concerns about the CIA, Majority Whip Dick Durbin sent a letter to CIA director John Brennan reminding him that he chairs the committee that appropriates money for the agency.
Several Intelligence Committee Republicans are urging an Ethics Committee investigation into Colorado Democrat Mark Udall for making public remarks about the CIA’s internal review of its interrogation program, including a March 4 letter he sent to the White House.
The Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe reports Arizona Sen. John McCain blasted some of his GOP colleagues for blocking an aid package to the Ukrainian government. O’Keefe also notes that McCain will be among a group of several senators who will travel to Ukraine this weekend to meet with the country’s new political leaders.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley leading four potential Republican challengers in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is launching a new PAC called “Stand Up to Washington” to support conservatives running for Congress, and he’s traveling to New Hampshire on Friday where aides say he’s scheduled to meet with “key players” in the state.
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer announced Wednesday she would not seek a third term, putting to rest speculation she would challenge a provision in the state’s constitution that prohibits officeholders from serving more than two terms. Brewer replaced former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who left office in 2009 to join the Obama administration. The Republican was then elected to a full term in 2010.
National Journal’s Alex Roarty notes that “Democrats are addicted to Koch, too,” and why that’s dangerous for them this cycle.
Lawyers for former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell asked late Thursday for the court to subpoena documents from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Food and Drug Administration to help them impeach government witness and Star Scientific CEO Jonnie Williams.
Texas Democrat Wendy Davis is now a national name, but the Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson shines a light on the other Texas woman who could help turn the Lone Star state purple.
Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who’s running for his old seat as a Democrat, “now says that he never should have been a Republican, the sort of blithe declaration that makes Florida Republicans choke on their food,” writes the Atlantic’s Molly Ball in her lengthy profile of the Floridian.
Elizabeth Summers explores the complexities of the U.S. immigration system through her in-depth profile of Baltimore’s Fofana family.
Hari Sreenivasan spoke with Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Dan Bosch of the National Federation of Independent Businesses about Mr. Obama’s directive to expand overtime eligibility.
- In the wake of Republican David Jolly’s narrow victory over Democrat Alex Sink in the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, Judy Woodruff spoke with Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report and Susan MacManus of the University of South Florida about the implications for this fall’s midterms.
On Making Sen$e, George Cabot Lodge argues that deescalating tensions over Ukraine requires convincing Russian President Vladimir Putin of the former imperial power’s dependency on the world economy.
— Foreign Policy (@ForeignPolicy) March 13, 2014
— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) March 13, 2014
Scenes from the Capitol: Dave Camp welcoming Dean Heller on a visit to "the other body," seemingly oblivious of Meryl Streep around corner
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) March 12, 2014
— Daniel Newhauser (@dnewhauser) March 12, 2014
We're at a point in the US Senate where members are using half an hr of floor time congratulating themselves for inviting amendments.
— Todd Zwillich (@toddzwillich) March 12, 2014
— carolynryan (@carolynryan) March 12, 2014
Ruth Tam contributed to this report.
For more political coverage, visit our politics page.
Sign up here to receive the Morning Line in your inbox every morning.
Questions or comments? Email Terence Burlij at tburlij-at-newshour-dot-org.
Follow the politics team on Twitter: