A look at the political landscape two months out from the midterm elections

Judy Woodruff:

As lawmakers return to Washington from their summer recess, their focus is sharpening even more on the midterm elections. The future of balance of power in Congress will be decided just 60 days from today.

Democrats currently hold a slight majority in the House of Representatives, with the party holding 222 seats to Republicans' 213. And Republicans are aiming to reclaim the majority. But a fluid political environment impacted by a mix of social and political issues has tempered hopes of a red wave.

Earlier this year, election watchers at The Cook Political Report forecasts that Republicans would pick up 20 to 30 additional seats. That prediction has now dropped to a range of from 10 to 20.

Following this all as closely as anyone is The Cook Report's David Wasserman. And he joins me now.

Welcome back to the "NewsHour," Dave Wasserman.

So, this is a significant change in your forecast. How firm is it?

David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report:

Well, look, Republicans do have some structural advantages in the House that they don't in the Senate.

They probably have gained between three and four seats from redistricting alone. They were able to gerrymander more states than Democrats. In Florida alone, Governor DeSantis pushed through a map that's likely to give Republicans an additional four seats there.

And also, in terms of retirements, there are 38 House Democrats not seeking reelection, compared to only 27 House Republicans. About 15 of those Democratic open seats are vulnerable to Republican takeover. And then, in terms of candidate recruitment, Republicans have succeeded by — did succeed in 2020 by nominating a lot of candidates who didn't look or sound like Trump.

They're trying to repeat that playbook. But, clearly, the environment has shifted since three months ago. Democrats are more energized post-Dobbs. Republicans have…

Judy Woodruff:

The Supreme Court decision on abortion.

David Wasserman:

Right. Right.

And that has reduced the enthusiasm advantage that produced the kind of results you saw in November of 2021, when Republicans flipped the governorship in Virginia, came close to doing so in New Jersey. Recently, we have seen Democrats on a special election hot streak, where, in five straight elections for the House, they have overperformed the 2020 margin between Biden and Trump, including flipping Alaska, which was probably more attributable to Republicans nominating an unpopular candidate, Sarah Palin.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

David Wasserman:

But, still, the string of those results forms a narrative that Republicans can't ignore.

Judy Woodruff:

So, a mix of things going on, as we said, in this political environment right now.

We are 60 days out. Typically, Dave Wasserman, you see some connection between a president's approval rating and how his party does in these midterm elections. How — what is that equation looking like right now?

David Wasserman:

Well, if you put President Biden's approval rating in the historical context, Democrats should still lose the House. He's at 43 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

And to put that in context, Donald Trump was at 41 percent when Republicans lost 40 seats and control of the House in 2018. But what we are seeing is Democrats succeeding in taking the spotlight onto Republicans a bit more on off of President Biden.

The abortion issue has done that. But, in addition, the fact that gas prices are down 23 percent or so since June has taken a little bit of the bite out of Republicans' message on Bidenflation. And we have also seen primaries pulling Republican fields to the right.

Judy Woodruff:

Meaning that — meaning you have candidates who are farther to the right running against — running against Democrats.

So that says to — what does that mean for Democrats?

David Wasserman:

Well, it's not to the same extent as in the Senate, where Republican primaries have produced uniquely flawed challengers that are helping Democrats' prospects there.

For the most part, Republicans have nominated candidates who don't look or sound like Donald Trump in a lot of suburban districts, but there are some exceptions, for example, in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where a Republican pro-impeachment incumbent named Peter Meijer lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger.

That's a seat where Democrats have — now have a better opportunity to flip that district with an attorney named Hillary Scholten. Or in Virginia's Seventh District, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger might have a better chance at winning reelection in the D.C. suburbs after Republicans nominated a candidate who is endorsed by the Freedom Caucus who has held, in her words, a 100 percent pro-life position.

Judy Woodruff:

A lot of interest in the effect of abortion on this outcome, especially among Democrats.

So, if you look at some of the most closely contested districts, do you see that abortion decision affecting what voters are thinking? And how — and how fluid is that situation that you see right now?

David Wasserman:

Well, it's handed Democrats their fall message, and Democrats are trying to make the Supreme Court more of the incumbent than Joe Biden.

And when midterms are a referendum on the incumbent president, it typically doesn't go well for their party. And so, right now, we have got 213 seats that are leaning — at least leaning to Republicans in our ratings, 190 seats that are at least leaning towards Democrats, and 32 toss-ups.

That means that Republicans only need to win five of those 32 to win the majority. But we might be talking about smaller gains than we expected three months ago.

Judy Woodruff:

The other question — and you raised this — is former President Trump.

Clearly, he's out there endorsing candidates. He's in the news almost — or not just almost — he's in the news every single day. What effect do you see him having?

David Wasserman:

Well, it's unconventional, because his goal all year has not necessarily been to get Republicans the biggest possible majority. It's been to purge the party of people who have crossed him in the past.

And that has pushed a couple of House races in Democrats' favor because, in some of these suburban districts that Trump lost by between five and 10 points, that's really the battleground here. That — those are the districts that are going to be deciding how large Republicans' gains are.

And if it's a very narrow majority come 2023, that's going to mean a very difficult House for Kevin McCarthy to manage.

Judy Woodruff:

Very quickly, how much could this forecast change again between now and Election Day?

David Wasserman:

We're in a very politically fluid environment, and this is one of the strangest midterm years that we have covered, because it's like whiplash.

Back in the spring, Republicans, based on 9.1 percent inflation and Biden at 38 percent, looked like they were going to be having a huge tailwind at their back. Now we're looking at crosswinds.

Judy Woodruff:

Something very different.

David Wasserman, The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter, thank you very much.

David Wasserman:

Thanks a lot, Judy.