Brooks and Marcus on issues that could decide the midterms and politics in the UK

Judy Woodruff:

With election night just two-and-a-half weeks away, midterm contests are picking up and candidates are doubling down on issues like crime and the economy. And across the pond, British leaders are also facing the consequences of a tumultuous political and economic moment.

For more on all of this, we turn to the analysis of Brooks and Marcus. That's New York Times columnist David Brooks and Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus. Jonathan Capehart is away.

Hello to both of you on this Friday night. Welcome to the table.

David, the midterms — I looked it up — they're just 17 days away. The winds seem to be blowing favorably in the direction of the Republicans. We don't know if that's going to last. But what we see — and your newspaper had a poll just this week showing that last month Republicans were behind by one point. They had 40 — you can see it here. Well, it's actually two points, 45 percent.

But this month, well, we had — I'm describing it differently. This month, Republicans have picked up three points, is the upshot here, in where they stand when voters are asked, what party do you support when it comes to when you think about the congressional vote.

What is going on?

David Brooks:

Yes, I would say, just looking at those polls, you think, oh, it's a little shift, but it's a pretty big shift.

The generic ballot, when it shifts — when you have got a four-point lead for Republicans, especially, that's just a big shift. There are some shocking numbers in the polls. Democrats were hoping, with abortion rights being such a central issue, they would have an advantage with women. But in our poll, the gender gap, which used to benefit the Democrats, gone, completely gone.

Some numbers are almost unbelievable. Like, in September, independent women, women voters who call themselves independents, not just independent women…

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

It's different.

David Brooks:

They were at plus-14 for the Democrats. Now they're plus-18 for the Republicans. They can't be — that's just awesome.

But among independents overall, the Republicans are leading by 10. And so these — it's just a big shift, and it's showing up in the races. We had talked last week about how Democrats were having to defend seats that should be safe.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

David Brooks:

And now, if you look at all the Politico, our friend Amy Walter and the Cook people, when they look at a lot of the races that are toss-up races, these are in districts that Joe Biden won by 11 points, by 14 points.

And then if you look at the governors, a lot of Republican governors are suddenly doing extremely well, in the Senate races, Adam Laxalt in Nevada suddenly tied. And so there's just a nationwide what at the moment is a wave.

Judy Woodruff:

So, Ruth, the data doesn't look good for Democrats. We don't know if it's going to last, but what do you see?

Ruth Marcus:

Well, I think there is a shift. I'm not sure I would call it a wave.

There's definitely been a change since the summer, when it looked like Democrats were talking, though I thought it was delusional then, and it certainly looks delusional now, about being able to keep the House. That is not going to happen. They have a very serious prospect of losing the Senate. The governor's races are up for grabs.

But I think the question is, compared to what? And I would say, in some ways, though they are certainly looking less good than they did a month ago, it's almost surprising, given the external forces, that Democrats are doing as well as they are.

For one thing, it's surprising because of history. As we know, presidents in midterms and their parties get shellacked. You lose 63 seats if you're Barack Obama, I don't think anybody thinks that Democrats are going to lose anything like 63 seats in the House. And so that's not going to be as bad as it was.

They're — also, President Biden at this very time is dealing with something that no president has dealt with, really, since Jimmy Carter, which is the incredible drag of inflation on him and his party. And so, given where we thought we were going to be, I think, at the start of this cycle, where it looked like there could be a huge red wave, that it would be a disaster for Democrats, I think this is going to be a disappointing election night for Democrats, but not a disaster.

Judy Woodruff:

So, David, you have the historical trend. You have the economy that Ruth mentioned.

You also have the issue of crime and public safety, which Republicans are running a lot of ads about lately in the last month. And we have — and it's showing up in a number of Senate races, in particular in Pennsylvania and in Wisconsin. And here are just two samples of that Republicans are running.

Narrator:

Sanctuary cities, weak prosecutors, crime skyrocketing, failed liberal policies making us less safe. Yet John Fetterman says:

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA):

Sanctuary cities is another policy that I very much support.

Narrator:

Barnes wanted to abolish ICE, open our borders to illegal immigrants, and release violent felons without bail. Mandela Barnes, dangerously liberal on crime.

Judy Woodruff:

We are told, David, Republicans spending close to $40 million on crime-related ads like these. That's more than triple what they spent the month before.

David Brooks:

Yes, well, a couple things.

First, I agree with Ruth. The fundamentals are not good for Democrats. And maybe this is just a normal election. But I do think there are some weaknesses that have been exposed in the Democratic political strategy. The first is, it's very hard to win elections if you're not trusted on the number one issue, which is the economy. Republicans have about a 10-point advantage.

Second, it's very hard to win if you're not trusted on what I think has become the number two issue, which is crime. And crime has been — violent crime has been up a lot two years ago. It's sort of flattened off now. But robbery, carjacking, that stuff is up.

And it's not political. I have been having conversations about crime with people, friends all around the country who think crime is more a reality. Bill Clinton worked really hard to give Democrats credibility on crime in the 1990s with the crime bill. Democrats have walked away from that crime bill-type approach, in my view, for a lot of good reasons. There was way too much incarceration and things like that.

But they have not found another way to replace it, to show they have some credibility, to show that Democratic mayors can keep the streets safe. And Eric Adams, all the mayors are struggling with this right now. And so that's got to be a priority one.

And then the final issue that I think is undercounted, and the Republicans are talking about a lot, is homelessness, and homelessness allegedly just rampant on the streets of the cities. What do we do with the homeless?

And so those are issues about public order that Republicans have sort of a natural advantage on.

Judy Woodruff:

Homelessness connected to public safety, public order.

David Brooks:

Yes, just we want to have streets that are safe. We don't want — that is somebody's son and daughter living in a tent, addicted to drugs. Like, how can we live with this?

Judy Woodruff:

How are Democrats able to respond to all that?

Ruth Marcus:

Well, on the economic point, which is really important, it's very hard for Democrats to have a coherent narrative on the economy when they're facing the inflation that they're facing and the threat of a recession.

And you can see it in the way they talk about it. We understand that prices are high. We're not — so — but you can't then say, well, but I have created 10 million jobs, and, really, your wages are close to keeping pace with inflation. Nobody's going to buy that.

But it's also true that that leaves them without being able to run on the economy, whether it's fair or not, because largely inflation is outside the president's control and his party's control, though he may have some pieces to blame on some of the spending that he did. That leaves them to concentrate on issues that could be motivating, but that are going to be subsidiary, when people are not confident about — we have a third of the country, less than a third of the country that's confident about the track that we're on.

You can't win on abortion with a headwind like that. At the same time, I really would point out also that for Republicans have given the Democrats some wins. They have some candidates who have the quality problems that Mitch McConnell talked about.

And they — on threat crime, they're being — I think they're taking a very classic Republican issue, and they are exploiting injuries that Democrats have inflicted on themselves with talk about defund the police and things like that.

Judy Woodruff:

So pushing on something that — or having a hard time pushing back on something that Republicans have traditionally done well on.

So, now that we have figured all out what's going on in our country, let's look across the Atlantic Ocean, David, to what's going on in Britain with the Conservatives, Liz Truss going down to ignominious resignation. And you know the story.

There is some talk about whether this has some connection to the conservative message in the United States. What do you see is going on there and here?

David Brooks:

I generally think our political systems rhyme, Reagan, Thatcher, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, similar patterns.

With Liz Truss, I think she must have been listening too much to Lionel Richie, because she apparently thought it was 1981.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

And she put out a tax plan that was Ronald Reagan 1981.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

David Brooks:

And so she — it was a tax plan that is wrong for the country in the moment right now, as financial markets said loud and clear.

It's also a tax plan that's wrong for the Tory Party. The Tory Party, like the conservative — like the Republican Party here, has become a working-class party. They don't need a tax plan for venture capitalists. And somehow she didn't get this is mystifying to me.

And so that's one thing, that you have got to understand the parties have shifted, and the Republican Party is shifting more to a working-class party and less of a bankers and corporate party. And so that's one way it rhymes.

The second way it rhymes is just sheer incompetence.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

They have been in office a long time.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

David Brooks:

And they have really worn down their talent. People are just sick of looking at them on the TV.

(LAUGHTER)

David Brooks:

And so the way she proposed it, this policy, with her chancellor, the way she withdrew it, the way she U-turned, none of it was handled with C-level competence.

And I'd saw some interviews on TV today of regular Tory M.P.s, Conservative Party M.P.s, just livid at how humiliated they were at really nursery school level politics.

Judy Woodruff:

And she — and it happened so fast. I mean, it was, what, six — six weeks.

David Brooks:

Yes.

Ruth Marcus:

Forty-five days, not even four Scaramuccis.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

So, Ruth, do we take some lessons from this? Do we just sort of look from across and thank goodness that's not happening here right now?

Ruth Marcus:

Well, it is unpleasant to see dysfunction elsewhere, but we should be alarmed about dysfunction elsewhere, because it's really important for us and for Europe to have a capable and functioning U.K., but especially now with Ukraine.

I think the lessons are twofold. And they're similar to David's lessons. The first is that it's not just the wrong tax plan for now. It's the wrong tax plan, period.

And I wish I was as confident as you are that the Republicans have turned themselves into a working-class party, because their tax plans have not been working-class tax plans. And I hope what happened there gives Republicans here some serious fear about proposing and implementing any kind of trickle-down economics, because it doesn't work. They don't pay for themselves. And the bond markets will come and get you if you do that.

And the second thing is that I — that I think your rhymes were all very well-taken. And we don't — I hope we don't have a repetition of the rhyme in the next stanza, because I very much hope that we do not see Boris Johnson back in office. Been there, done that. Their buffoon is smarter than our buffoon, but we don't need that. They need somebody capable and competent to move on.

And I fear very much that Boris Johnson back in office in Britain would encourage somebody else closer to home.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

Malcolm Brabant did say that he's still in the running.

But just quickly, David, does — do you think Republicans in this country look at what's going on in Britain and say, well, OK, we won't do tax cuts again?

David Brooks:

No, Republicans in this country look at Hungary these days.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

OK.

David Brooks:

I think they're not — I mean, I have spent a lot of the week watching Kari Lake speeches, running for governor in Arizona, very strong political talent, and really moving the party away from a Paul Ryan version of the Republican Party.

She seems to be more the future than Reaganomics.

Judy Woodruff:

Ah.

(CROSSTALK)

Ruth Marcus:

Well, I don't know which future I might prefer, thank you very much.

David Brooks:

I'm not saying it's better. I'm just saying it's a reality.

Judy Woodruff:

All right, we're going to check our history books this weekend.

David Brooks:

Yes.

Judy Woodruff:

David Brooks, Ruth Marcus, thank you both.

David Brooks:

Thank you.

Ruth Marcus:

Thanks.