Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Sen. Tuberville’s racist rhetoric, Biden’s pitch to voters

Judy Woodruff:

With just four weeks until Election Day, one Republican senator is drawing fierce condemnation for racist rhetoric, and President Biden is gearing up for a trip out West, making his pitch to voters and donors in the final campaign stretch.

For analysis of it all, I'm joined, as we are each Monday, by Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

Hello to both of you.

And in case you have not checked the calendar, tomorrow — after tomorrow, four weeks until Election Day. It's November the 8th. Just reminding.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Yes. I wasn't paying attention at all, Judy. Thank you.

Judy Woodruff:

I know you weren't. I know you weren't.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

But, because of that, we want to mark this occasion by asking each one of you, where does this race stand?

I mean, the Republicans have been very confident, Amy, they're going to pick up the House, the Senate in the balance. What does it look like?

Amy Walter:

Yes, this looks like, in some ways, a typical midterm election.

You have a president, where that president's party has the House and the Senate, it's very hard to keep those traditionally, the president not particularly popular. That usually draws the party down — drags that party down, and the party does lose seats in the House and the Senate, probably loses the Senate and the House, except what we're noticing this year is that it's not just all about Joe Biden and Democrats.

It's also about the former President Donald Trump. And it's about, of course, the historic decision this June made by the Supreme Court to overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision. And so what — the way I talk about this is, it's as if the winds are still blowing at Republicans' backs. It's not that the wind suddenly changed directions, right?

We didn't go from an election that was bad for Democrats to one that's great for Democrats, but it's not — the wind is not quite as strong at the backs of Republicans or in the face of Democrats, thanks, in part, as I said, to the fact that we're talking a lot about issues like abortion, Donald Trump, that motivate the Democratic base, and the fact that Republicans nominated a number of candidates, especially at the Senate level, who are very flawed.

And finally, structurally, Democrats, again, in the Senate, but also in the House, there aren't that many very difficult, vulnerable seats. That has also helped Democrats. And so I still give Republicans the advantage, but it's just not as significant as it was, say, earlier in the year or even before the summer.

Judy Woodruff:

What would you add to that?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

I would just say that — and I think I have said this before on Politics Monday — but that if you go back a few months, before the Dobbs decision on abortion, all of the signals were pointing in one direction.

And those signals were all pointing to it being a pretty difficult year for Democrats. Since then, there are a lot of really mixed signals, where Democrats are having pretty good fund-raising, where Republicans are facing these challenges with candidates, for instance.

And a Republican I talked to who is working to get Republicans elected in the House, a top-level person, said that the Dobbs decision absolutely has made a difference, in particular because, in swing districts, voters tend to be pro-choice.

However, he also added that they also still really care and rank as high on their list of issues the economy and crime. And you see Republicans hammering the message of crime.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes, right, no question. I just came back from Wisconsin, where you see that all over the airwaves. That piece is going to air in a few days.

But you brought up — whatever you brought up, it makes me…

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

It makes me want to ask you, Tam, because you cover the White House, about the fact that President Biden is now hitting the campaign trail. He's making a swing this week out West.

What's behind that?

Tamara Keith:

And I will say that we were expecting the president's travel schedule to really kick into gear earlier this year. But then he had COVID and things got delayed. And then he had, like, rebound COVID.

And so the travel has been slow to get going. But that's not the only thing affecting his travel schedule. Also, there aren't a lot of places where he can go and stand side by side with one of the Democratic candidates and actually help.

And what we have seen a lot of and we're going to see with this coming West Coast swing is that he's doing a lot of closed-door fund-raisers where there aren't cameras in the room, where he is able to meet with Democratic donors, raise a lot of money. And, as I said before, Democratic fund-raising is doing pretty darn well.

So, he has a fund-raiser with Nancy Pelosi in Los Angeles that we know about later this week with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. What we don't know is whether he will be appearing with candidates in California who are in difficult races, whether he will be appearing with a candidate in Oregon who's having a difficult race.

And, also, he's going to Colorado, where that Senate race is a lot closer than people were expecting.

Amy Walter:

Yes, I mean, this is one of the other interesting things and unique things about this midterm election, is so many of these Democrats that Tam mentioned, part of the reason that they're still in competitive races, that they're not falling behind or they haven't fallen behind Republicans is that they're polling so much better than the president in these districts and these states.

Normally, what you see is a president with approval ratings as low as this president really does drag — it's like — it is like an anchor pulling down the candidates of that president's party. In this case, they have been able to rise above it. Now, Republicans still believe that, if they can — they have still a month more to go to try to link Democratic candidates with the president, to try to pull them closer together.

But it's reason why these Democratic candidates don't want to give the present time in their state on a debate — I mean, on a rally stage, where they're actually able to make that direct link. Like, see, this person is a Biden Democrat.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, the other person who's been out on the trail a fair amount is the former president, Donald Trump.

Tam, he was in Nevada this weekend, and so was the senator from Alabama, the Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville, who has been criticized before now for escalating rhetoric on crime, tying it to race. Here's what he said this weekend.

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL):

Some people say, well, they're soft on crime.

No, they're not soft on crime. They're pro-crime. They want crime. They want crime because they want to take over what you got. They want to control what you have.

They want reparation because they think the people that do the crime are owed that.

Bull (EXPLETIVE DELETED)!

Judy Woodruff:

So, he's talking about Democrats and clearly referring to Black Americans.

Tamara Keith:

Indeed.

And there's really no getting around the fact that that is a racist statement, the idea that only Black people commit crime or something, which is just patently untrue, and — yes, and just very much untrue.

But what I will say is that the Republican effort to tie Democrats to crime, to say that Democrats want crime or our, like, soft on crime, or want lenience on criminals, that is very much on message with the Republican campaigns.

There is a huge amount of spending on crime-related advertising. You mentioned Wisconsin.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes.

Tamara Keith:

Priorities USA is a Democratic group, but they're tracking ad spending, digital spending for both parties.

What they told me this week is that 70 percent of the digital ads — these are targeted ads being run in that Wisconsin Senate race — are about crime on the Republican side, only 15 percent about the economy.

So, if you want to know where they think their winning message is, look where they're spending their money.

Judy Woodruff:

And where they think they can — but a statement like this, Amy, does it make a difference in how people vote?

Amy Walter:

So, this is at a rally with folks who are firm, true believers of Donald Trump.

I also think, Judy, we're living in a time where the consequences for what would have been considered outrageous behavior don't come to pass, that we have candidates saying and doing things that, again, in previous years, either voters would have kicked them out or the party leadership would have said, that's not OK. We don't do that.

There's no reason for folks to not do that, because, actually, the incentive structure now rewards people who are the most outrageous, say the most outrageous things. And, also, I think it goes back to 2016. So many politicians now look at Donald Trump and say, he won after the "Access Hollywood" tape. If he can do that, so can I. So can that person.

It's up to voters to say, actually, you know what, I know I'm tied to my party. I know maybe I don't like the other party very much. But I can make a difference here by saying I'm not going to stick with my party and I'm going to go choose the other side.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, I think it's important for us to point to these statements when they take place. It reminds us what kind of discussions are happening out there.

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, thank you both.

Tamara Keith:

You're welcome.

Amy Walter:

You're very welcome.