ON THIS EPISODE OF CYCLE OF HEALTH, COVID-19 VARIANTS.

UNCOVER THE SCIENCE BEHIND THESE VIRUS MUTATIONS THROUGH THE EYES OF THE EXPERTS ON THE FRONTLINES OF THE PANDEMIC.

THEN LEARN MORE ABOUT THE VARIANTS AND THE STATE OF COVID-19 IN OUR REGION AS WE SIT DOWN WITH TWO PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS TO ASK ALL THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS.

THIS IS A CONVERSATION YOU WON'T WANT TO MISS.

COMING UP ON CYCLE OF HEALTH.

HEALTH, I'M DR. RICH O'NEILL.

HELLO AND WELCOME TO CYCLE OF HEALTH, I'M DR. RICH O'NEILL.

ON TONIGHT'S SHOW, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT COVID-19 VARIANTS BY NOW, YOU'VE HEARD OF DELTA, AND OMICRON FOR SURE.

IN FACT, ACCORDING TO THE CDC, THE FIRST CONFIRMED US CASE OF THE OMICRON VARIANT WAS SEEN ON DECEMBER 1ST, JUST OVER 2 MONTHS AGO.

THREE WEEKS LATER, OMICRON WAS DETECTED IN MOST STATES AND GREATLY INCREASING THE NUMBER OF CASES AROUND THE COUNTRY.

CHANCES ARE YOU OR A LOVED ONE HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY A VARIANT.

BUT WHERE DO THEY COME FROM?

WHAT IS OUR BEST DEFENSE?

WILL WE SEE MORE?

SCIENTISTS ARE WORKING OVERTIME, AND NEW INFORMATION IS RAPIDLY EMERGING, WE ARE JOINED BY TWO SUNY UPSTATE PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERTS IN HOPES TO ANSWER SOME OF OUR QUESTIONS.

THEY ARE: DR. KATIE ANDERSON, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF MEDICINE, MICROBIOLOGY, AND IMMUNOLOGY AT SUNY UPSTATE MEDICAL AND DR. CHRISTOPHER MORLEY, CHAIR OF THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE AT SUNY UPSTATE MEDICAL THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE.

Dr. ANDERSON, WHAT IS A COVID-19 VARIANT?

WHERE DO THEY COME FROM AND ARE THERE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT MAKE IT MORE OR LESS LIKELY THAT WE WILL DEVELOP MORE OF THOSE?

>> THE FACT THAT THERE ARE SARS CO-VARIANT IS NOT A SURPRISE.

IT JUMPED FROM WHATEVER HOST IT WAS GOING INTO BEFORE.

WE DON'T CARE ABOUT MOST OF THE VARIANTS.

WE REALLY ABOUT THEM WHEN THEY ARE MORE TRANSMISSIBLE, WHICH CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE THE CASE WITH OMICRON.

IF THEY CAUSE MORE SEVERE DISEASE, WHICH WAS THE CASE WITH DELTA AND MAYBE ALPHA AND IF THEY EVOLVE TO ESCAPE OUR IMMUNITY WHICH WAS THE CASE.

SO THERE WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE VARIANTS.

WE ONLY CARE ABOUT CERTAIN ONES WHEN THEY BECOME REALLY IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF HOW THEY IMPACT US HUMANS.

GOING FORWARD THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIANTS.

THE SITUATIONS THAT ARE MORE LIKELY TO GENERATE NEW MUTATIONS, SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A LOT OF TRANSMISSIONS.

THE MORE HOSTS YOU CAN INSPECT FECT, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS GOING TO MUTATE.

THE FACT THAT THERE ARE LARGE PARTS OF THE GLOBE THAT ARE INCOMPLETELY VACCINATED OR PARTS OF THE U.S. WHERE THERE ARE LOW VACCINATION RATES THAT INCREASES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE VIRUS CAN SPREAD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE NEW VARIANTS.

>> THIS IS PREVENTIVE MEDICINE IS YOUR AREA.

DO YOU WANT TO ADD ANYTHING TO THAT?

>> I WOULD LOVE TO ADD THAT WE SEE VARIATION IN ANY SPECIES.

THIS IS A NATURAL PROCESS.

IT'S EVOLUTIONARILY DRIVEN.

SOME OF THE FACTORS THAT CAUSE NEW VARIANTS TO EMERGE THAT WE DO CARE ABOUT ARE THE VERY THINGS THAT WE BEG PEOPLE TO DO.

WHEN THOSE ARE NOT ENFORCED OR THE PEOPLE DON'T COMPLY, LIKE IF PEOPLE ARE UNDERVACCINATED, IF PEOPLE DON'T HAVE IMMUNITY OR RESIST WEARING MASKS, ONE OF THE ISSUES IS THAT IT PROVIDES MORE TRANSMISSION OPPORTUNITIES, MORE HOSTS AND MORE TUNS FOR THE VIRUS TO REPRODUCE.

THE MORE IT REPRODUCES, THE MORE OPPORTUNITY THE NEW MUTATION AARISE AND YOU END UP WITH A SERIES OF MUTATIONS THAT BECOME A NEW VARIANT THAT WE HAVE TO TRACK AND BE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT.

>> IF WE DON'T GET VACCINATED, WE ARE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY THAT WE WILL HAVE MORE TROUBLE DOWN THE LINE.

GREAT.

WELL, WE RECENTLY SPOKE WITH SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR BRITTANY KMUSH.

YOU MAY REMEMBER BRITTANY FROM OUR FIRST EPISODE THIS SEASON, TALKING ABOUT COVID-19 SURVEILLANCE METHODS AND PREVENTION.

HERE, WE ASKED HER TO DIVE INTO THE MICROSCOPIC SCIENCE BEHIND THESE VIRUS MUTATIONS AND WHY THEY SOMETIMES RESULT IN NEW VARIANTS.

LET'S TAKE A LOOK.

>> I'M Dr. BRITTANY KMUSH, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AT PUBLIC HEALTH AT SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY.

THE VIRUS MUTATES BECAUSE THEY'RE MADE UP OF GENETIC MATERIAL.

ANYTHING MADE UP OF GENETIC MATERIAL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MUTATE.

WE'LL SEE THAT IN OUR CELLS AS WELL WITH SOMETHING LIKE CANCER.

SO THAT'S WHERE THE GENETIC MATERIAL WAS COPIED AS OURSELVES WERE REPLICATED BUT A MISTAKE THAT MADE AND THAT'S WHEN WE GET A CANCER CELL.

VIRUSES ARE VERY SIMILAR EXCEPT THIS PARTICULAR CORONAVIRUS IS MADE UP OF RNA, WHICH IS EVEN MORE PRONE TO ERRORS THAN DNA.

AND SO AS THE VIRUSES ARE REPLICATING IN IN A HUMAN BODY THEIR RNA GETS COPIED AND SOMETIMES THERE IS A MISTAKE IN THE COPYING.

RNA IS ONE STRAND.

THERE IS NO ERROR CHECKING AND IT IS A RANDOM PROCESS.

SO THE RNA IS A CODE FOR THE AMINO ACIDS.

SO YOU HAVE THREE BASE PAIRS OF THE RNA TRANSLATE INTO ONE AMINO ACID.

AND SO IF THE RIGHT OR WRONG, DEPENDING ON HOW YOU LOOK AT IT, DNA GETS CHANGED, IT COULD CHANGE THE AMINO ACIDS IN THE PROTEIN THAT GETS MADE FROM THAT PARTICULAR PART OF THE RNA.

AND THEN WHEN THE PROTEIN CHANGES, THAT'S WHAT ALLOWS IT TO MAYBE BE MORE EFFICIENT AS AN EFFECTIVE HOST OR BE MORE SEVERE.

SO IN THE CASE OF THE CONTROVERSY, THE IT IS IMPORTANT INTO ENTERING HUMAN CELLS, IF THAT CHANGES, IT CAN MAKE IT NOT ABLE TO INFECT AND ENTER HUMAN CELLS OR IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT MORE EFFICIENT.

SO WE DO KNOW KIND OF WHICH PROTEINS ARE IMPORTANT IN THE VIRUS LIFE CYCLE AND SO MUTATIONS IN THOSE PROTEINS WOULD THEN MAKE IT, YOU KNOW, MAYBE MORE EFFICIENT AT ENTERING A CELL, MAYBE MORE EFFICIENT AT CAUSING SEVERE DISEASE BUT IT'S KIND OF A RANDOM ERROR.

BUT THE FACTORS THAT LEAD TO MUTATIONS IS WHEN THE VIRUS IS ABLE TO REPLICATE A LOT IN A HOST OR POPULATION.

SO THE MORE RAMPANT A VIRUS IS, THE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR THOSE MUTATIONS TO OCCUR AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO BE ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE VIRUS.

IT DOES MUTATE PRETTY QUICKLY BUT I DON'T THINK IT MUTATES ANY FASTER THAN WE WOULD EXPECT OTHER RNA VIRUSES.

AS IT REPLICATEDS AND AFFECTS MORE PEOPLE, THERE IS GOING TO BE NEW VARIANTS.

ARE THEY GOING TO BE MORE INFECTIOUS OR WORSE THAN OMICRON, I DON'T KNOW BUT THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE NEW VARIANTS.

>> SO, FOLKS, HOW DO THE EXPERTS IDENTIFY NEW VARIANTS?

IS IT FROM THE LAB?

IS IT CLINICALLY FROM PATIENTS COMING IN?

HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN?

>> THE WAY THAT IT'S DONE IS WHEN SOMEBODY IS INFECTED WITH SARS COV-2 FROM A PCR TEST, THEY CAN TAKE IT TO THE LAB AND LOOK AT THE GENETIC CODE AND THEY CAN GET A SENSE HOW SIMILAR THE VIRUSES ARE TO EACH OTHER.

SAY INFECTED Dr. MORLEY AND THEY GOT VIRUSES FROM BOTH OF US, THEY WOULD LOOK SIMILAR.

THE VARIANTS, AGAIN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE VIRUS AND CODE SPREAD OUT AND EVOLVE OVER TIME BUT WHEN THEY LOOK AT THINGS LIKE AN INCREASE IN TRANSMISSION AND THEY START TO SEE ONE GROUP OF VIRUSES TAKING OFF, THEY SAY THIS IS A VARIANT WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT.

OR IF THEY SEE PATIENTS WHO ARE IN THE HOSPITALS AND THEY LOOK AT THE CODE AND IT'S VERY SIMILAR, THEY WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERITY OF THAT VARIANT.

THAT'S HOW THEY IDENTIFY THE VARIANTS OF INTEREST, WHICH ARE THE SUBSETS OF VARIANTS THAT WE ACTUALLY CARE ABOUT.

>> ARE THE COVID-19 VACCINES CURRENTLY IN USE, PFIZER, MODERNA, J & J HAS FALLEN OFF.

ARE THEY ABLE TO PROTECT US AGAINST THE VARIANTS AND MAYBE FUTURE ONES THAT EMERGE?

>> SO REASSURINGLY, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH, PARTICULARLY THE MRNA VACCINE, PFIZER AND MODERNA DO A VERY GOOD JOB OF DOING WHAT WE REALLY CARE ABOUT WITH SARS COV-2 WHICH IS PREVENTING HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH.

IF WE LOOK AT HOW WELL THEY DO IN TERMS OF PREVENTING INFECTION, THAT VARIES ACROSS THE VARIANTS.

BUT TO REASSURE EVERYONE, THE VACCINES, PARTICULARLY IF YOU HAVE HAD YOUR THIRD DOSE OF PFIZER OR MODERNA, THEY DO A PRETTY GOOD JOB OF PROTECTING YOU FROM GETTING INFECTED AT ALL AND PREVENTING YOU FROM SPREADING IT TO OTHER PEOPLE.

SO TO REASSURE EVERYONE, EVEN WITH OMICRON, THE PROTECTION IS QUITE GOOD WITH THESE VACCINES.

>> SO YOU GET VACCINATED AND IT WILL HELP YOU FROM GETTING INFECTED BUT IT CERTAINLY HELPS WITH PREVENTING SEVERE DISEASE AND DEATH.

>> AND TRANSMISSION.

AND A KEY POINT IS THAT PEOPLE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THAT A LOT OF THE UNITED STATES DID A GOOD JOB IN TERMS OF GETTING OUT THEIR FIRST AND SECOND DOSES.

BUT COMPLETING THE VACCINATION COURSE-- AND WOULD I REALLY SAY THE THIRD DOSE IS NOT A BOOSTER BUT COMPLETING THE FIRST COURSE AND IT'S VERY CLEAR THAT THIRD DOSE GOES A LONG WAY IN PROTECTING YOU AGAINST TRANSMISSION, INFECTION AND GETTING COVID-19.

>> WHAT DO WE KNOW AT THIS POINT IN TERMS OF HOW LONG THE THIRD BOOSTER SHOT IS GOING TO LAST?

IS THERE ANY EVIDENCE ABOUT THAT?

>> WE HAVE DONE SOME BACKGROUND LOOKING AND THERE ARE SOME DATA THAT SUGGEST THAT-- AND AGAIN THIS IS NOT ESTABLISHED SCIENCE.

WE ARE LEARNING ABOUT THIS IN VERY REAL TIME.

AND THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS-- >> EARLY SCIENCE.

>> EARLY SCIENCE.

WE ARE DOING THIS IN BASICALLY IN PUBLIC.

WE ARE ACTUALLY DOING A PUBLIC, WHAT SCIENCE OFTEN DOES FOR YEARS, BEHIND THE SCENES.

AND SO THE PUBLIC IS WATCHING STUDY BY STUDY COME OUT IN REAL TIME AND THESE ARE OFTEN CONVERSATIONS THAT ARE VERY ESOTERIC AND NOT HAPPENING IN PUBLIC.

BUT WHAT WE CAN SEE NOW IS THAT YOU GET ROUGHLY, BASICALLY SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS REALLY STRONG BUMP FROM THE FIRST TWO DOSES OF AN MRNA VACCINE AND THE THIRD DOSE-- AND I LIKE Dr. ANDERSON'S TERM AS THE THIRD AS A TRUE COMPLETION OF SERIES OF THREE SHOTS, GIVES YOU ANOTHER SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS AND WE CAN SEE THAT PEOPLE GET REINFECTED MORE FREQUENTLY THE FURTHER OUT THEY GO.

WHERE THIS GOES, WELL WE REALLY DON'T HAVE A LARGE ENOUGH DATA POOL TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENS IN TWO, THREE, FOUR YEARS, BECAUSE NOBODY HAS HAD COVID FOR TWO, THREE, FOUR YEARS.

IT DOESN'T EXIST.

THE OTHER THING THAT IS GOING TO BE A REAL TWIST IS HOW QUICKLY THE VIRUS EVOLVES BECAUSE IF WE END UP WITH NEW STRAINS, WE WILL BE IN A SITUATION WHERE EVERY YEAR WE ARE PRODUCING NEW VACCINES TO COMBAT DIFFERENT STRAINS.

MUCH LIKE WE DO WITH THE FLU.

BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET.

OUR CURRENT VACCINES STILL WORK WITH THE VARIANTS WE HAVE CIRCULATING IN PUBLIC.

BUT-- SO THERE IS A LOT OF OPEN SCIENCE THAT IS STILL PROGRESSING.

AND WE DON'T HAVE FIRM ANSWERS YET BUT THAT'S BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T CO-EXISTED WITH SARS COV-2 FOR LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE ENOUGH PILE OF DATA TO FIGURE THIS OUT.

>> SO BASICALLY, THE BEST ADVICE AT THIS POINT IS GET VACCINATED, GET A SERIES OF THREE SHOTS WHEN THE TIME IS RIGHT FOR TO YOU DO THAT AND THEN WAIT TO HEAR THE NEXT ADVICE FROM THE EMERGING DATA.

>> MOST OF US WHO ARE PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTITIONERS ARE OUT OF PREDICTION GAME.

WE KNOW LESS THAN WHEN WE STARTED.

THAT'S A LITTLE TONG IN CHEEK BUT TO SOME DEGREE IT'S TRUE.

BUT WE CAN LEARN A LOT FROM WATCHING WHAT OTHER COUNTRIES ARE EXPERIENCING.

BY WATCHING ISRAEL AND THE U.K. AND SEEING THEIR EXPERIENCE, SEEING HOW ISRAEL DOES WITH THEIR FOURTH DOSE COMPARED TO THE U.K.

WHICH IS NOT YET THERE BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE A LOT OF OMICRON, WE CAN LEARN A LOT AND THAT WILL HELP GUIDE OUR POLICY AS WELL.

>> SO YOU KNOW, AS A PSYCHOLOGIST, I'M FAMILIAR WITH THIS THING CALLED THE FIVE STAGES OF CHANGE MODEL AND I KNOW, CHRIS, YOU ARE ALSO FAMILIAR WITH THIS.

BASICALLY I THINK OF IT, I NEVER THOUGHT ABOUT IT, I'M THINKING ABOUT IT, I'M PREPARING TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT AND I'M ACTUALLY DOING IT.

NOW IN MY FAMILY, THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED, NOT IN MY CLOSE FAMILY BUT MY EXTENDED FAMILY AND I THINK HOW IN THE WORLD AM I GOING TO TALK TO THESE PEOPLE ABOUT THEY'RE PUTTING THEMSELVES AT SERIOUS RISK OF DISABILITY, ILLNESS, DYING.

WHAT DO YOU THINK, CHRIS?

WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO SAY?

>> MY CONCERN IS THAT OUR OLD PUBLIC HEALTH APPROACH IS WHETHER IT'S MODELING, WHICH WE HAVE GIVEN UP ON.

WE LOOK TO OTHER COUNTRIES.

OR IN TERMS OF PUBLIC HEALTH MESSAGING, HAVE PRESENTED NEW CHALLENGES OR PRESENTED WITH NEW CHALLENGES.

ONE THING THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH RIGHT NOW IN THE CONNECTICUT PRE-CONTEMPLATING MODEL, THE PERSON NOT READY TO THINK ABOUT IT, NOT EVEN THINKING ABOUT WEARING A MASK NOT THINKING ABOUT GETTING A VACCINE BECAUSE IT'S ABOUT VACCINES BUT IT'S ABOUT A LOT OF OTHER THINGS.

NOT EVEN THINKING ABOUT STAYING HOME FROM A LARGE GATHERING.

ALL OF THE THINGS THAT WE ARE ASKING, HAVE, UNFORTUNATELY, ALIGNED ALONG SOME TRIBAL LINES.

AND PEOPLE ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAN INTO THEIR CONFIRMATION BIASES AND LOOK FOR ALL OF THIS WILD WEST OF SCIENCE HAPPENING IN REAL TIME IN PUBLIC.

PEOPLE HAVE UNFETTERED ACCESS TO INFORMATION AT LEVELS THAT IN PREVIOUS PANDEMICS AND PREVIOUS PUBLIC EMERGENCIES THEY HAVE NOT HAD.

SO YOU CAN FIND A STUDY THAT BACKS UP ALMOST ANYTHING YOU WANT TO BELIEVE.

>> THAT'S WHAT YOU WERE REFERRING TO AS CONFIRMATION BIAS.

I BELIEVE THIS.

I'M GOING TO GO OUT THERE AND LOOK FOR A STUDY IN THE NEWSPAPER OR ON THE INTERNET THAT SAYS, YEAH, THAT'S A GREAT IDEA.

>> YOU CAN FIND SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING YOU WANT TO THINK, I BELIEVE, ON GOOGLE.

>> AND NEVER LOOK AT THE DISCONFIRMING DATA.

>> AND NEVER LOOK AT DISCONFIRMING DATA AND THERE IS ENOUGH OUT THERE AND THERE IS ENOUGH PRODUCED RAPIDLY THAT WHAT WE ARE REALLY EXPERIENCING IS PEOPLE GOING WITH WHATEVER THEIR TRIBE WANTS TO BELIEVE SO IT'S LESS USEFUL FOR ME SAYING I'M A PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERT OR SCIENTIST, IT'S MORE EFFECTIVE FOR ME TO WORK ON PEOPLE SLOWLY WHO ARE INFLUENCERS WITHIN THEIR OWN CIRCLES OF INFLUENCE AND MOVE PEOPLE WITH REASON, WITH PATIENCE AND WITH UNDERSTANDING AND MOVE PEOPLE TO OUR SIDE, RATHER THAN ASSUMING I HAVE THE RIGHT ANSWER AND YOU ARE WRONG.

IT'S MUCH EASIER TO FORM AN ALLIANCE WITH THE INFLUENCERS AND HAVE THEM HELP US MOVE THROUGH THEIR CIRCLES BECAUSE IT'S, FRANKLY, TOO EASY TO FIND ANYTHING YOU WANT TO TRY TO DISPUTE WHAT I WOULD HAVE TO SAY.

SO IT'S TIME FOR SOME NEW APPROACHES.

>> I AGREEY WITH THAT.

AND JUST TO BUILD ON IT, Dr.

MORALLY AND I MORLEY AND I HAVE DONE LOTS OF TYPES OF INTERVIEWS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS AND IT HAS SHIFTED IN THE TERMS OF PEOPLE WE ARE TRYING TO REACH AND HOW RECEPTIVE THEY ARE TO.

WE ARE DATA DRIVEN PEOPLE AND WE SPEAK WITH DATA.

WE HAVE REACHED THE PEOPLE WHO CAN BE REACHED WITH DATA.

WE HAVE REACHED THE PEOPLE WHO ARE UNDECIDED BY AND LARGE BECAUSE THEY HAD QUESTIONS THAT NEEDED TO BE ANSWERED.

WE'VE ANSWERED THOSE QUESTIONS AND NOW WE ARE AT A POINT WHERE PEOPLE ARE NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE MOTIVATED BY Dr. MORLEY AND I TALKING AS DOCTORS AND PUBLIC HEALTH FOLKS BUT THEY MAY LISTEN TO, WHICH IS WHY I APPRECIATE YOUR QUESTION, THEY MAY LISTEN TO THEIR NIECE OR THEIR SISTER.

THEY MAY LISTEN TO A FRIEND WHO MIGHT THINK SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY THAN THEM BUT SOMEBODY THEY TRUST.

>> YOU KNOW, IN MY EXPERIENCE, I TALK TO MY RELATIVES WHO ARE NOT VACCINATED.

SOME PEOPLE WHO ARE ELDERLY UNVACCINATED AND I AM ABSOLUTELY TERRIFIED FOR THEM.

AND YOU KNOW, THEY-- I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THEM TO BRING IT UP BECAUSE ANY TIME I HINT ABOUT IT, THEY IMMEDIATELY GIVE ME THEIR PARTY LINE OF I'M NOT HIVE BLAH BLAH BLAH, SO I ASK THEM, SOMETIMES I'LL SAY, HELP ME UNDERSTAND YOUR POINT OF VIEW.

IF THEY WANT TALK ABOUT IT BUT I HAVE BEEN VERY PATIENT AND JUST WAITING AND GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY, I'LL SAY SOMETHING WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT APPROACH?

>> I THINK LISTENING TO PEOPLE WITH EMPATHY AND RESPECT HAS TO BE THE WAY THAT WE START BECAUSE WE ARE NOT GOING TO WIN ANYBODY OVER OR WIN ANY FRIENDS OR GAIN ANY GROUND IF WE COME ACROSS AS WE KNOW EVERYTHING AND YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING.

I'VE SEEN IN MY EXECS PEERNS, AND THIS IS A TRAGEDY OF THE PANDEMIC THAT WE HAVE VACCINE THAT CAN PREVENT HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH BY AND LARGE BUT WE HAVE LOTS OF PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITALS THAT ARE UNVACCINATED AND VERY ILL AND IT'S NOT UNCOMMON TO HEAR THEM SAY I REALLY WISH I GOT THE VACCINE.

I'M GOING TO GO TELL PEOPLE AND THEY HOPEFULLY WILL BE REALLY GREAT PEOPLE TO GO OUT AND SHARE THEIR STORY AND IMPART HOW SERIOUS THIS VIRUS CAN BE.

>> DO YOU FOLKS THINK THERE WILL COME A TIME WHEN COVID-19 IS ELIMINATED COMPLETELY OR IS IT THE NEW NORMAL WE HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO DEAL WITH?

IS THERE ANY WAY TO PREDICT THAT?

>> I THINK WE WILL BOTH HAVE THOUGHTS ON THIS ONE.

>> THERE IS A LOT OF DISCUSSION EVEN NOW.

CERTAINLY WE HAVE AGREED WE ARE EAGER TO GET BACK TO WHATEVER NORMAL WILL BE OR AT LEAST HAVE THE EMERGENCY STATE OR CATASTROPHE WANING A BIT.

BUT RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT IN AN ENDEMIC STATE.

WHATEVER THAT MEANS.

WE ARE NOT YET SURE THIS IS SEASONAL.

WE ARE NOT AT A POINT WHERE WE CAN LET DOWN OUR GUARD BECAUSE OUR HOSPITALS ARE FULL, OUR SCHOOLS ARE SHUT DOWN, OUR AIRLINES ARE NOT FLYING.

AND WE DON'T KNOW-- TO BE REAL HONEST, WE IN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY HAVE TO BE VERY HUMBLE.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

COULD OMICRON CAUSE ENOUGH IMMUNITY THAT THINGS SETTLE DOWN AND WE ARE GOOD FOR A YEAR OR SO?

MAYBE.

WE DON'T KNOW.

COULD THERE BE ANOTHER VARIANT IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS?

MAYBE.

IT'S COMPLETELY UNPREDICTABLE.

WE DON'T KNOW.

BUT THE ONE THING I TAKE AWAY FROM SEEING THE MEDIA SAYING THINGS LIKE THERE IS HOPE, THERE IS REASON TO HOPE THAT OMICRON MAY CAUSE ENOUGH IMMUNITY FOR US TO BE DONE WITH IT.

WE CAN HOPE BUT HOPE IS NOT A GOOD STRATEGY TO PREPARE FOR WHAT MIGHT COME AHEAD.

>> YOU KNOW, WHERE WE ARE TAPING RIGHT NOW IN ONONDAGA COUNTY, WE HAVE ROUGHLY 350,000 OR SO PEOPLE WHO HAVE EITHER BEEN IMMUNIZED OR HAVE HAD COVID.

THAT NUMBER IS FUZZY.

I DON'T WANT ANYONE TO QUOTE ME ON IT BECAUSE THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE INFECTED AND DIDN'T KNOW, PEOPLE WHO HAVE MULTIPLE INFECTIONS, OVERLAP BETWEEN THE NUMBERS.

BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE 426,000 RESIDENTS BY SOME CENSUS ESTIMATES.

SO EVEN TODAY, EVEN AT THE TAIL, DOWNWARD SLOPE OF THE OMICRON WAVE THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING, YOU STILL HAVE 100,000 OR MORE, 150,000 WHO HAVE NO EXPOSURE TO EITHER THE VIRUS ITSELF OR VACCINE.

AND IF WE REPLICATE ACROSS THE GLOBE AND THEN IN SOME CASES EVEN MORE EXTREMELY, THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO STILL ARE IN NAIVE TO THE VIRUS-- >> NEVER HAD ANY EXPOSURE TO EITHER A VACCINE OR THE VIRUS.

SO IT'S STILL GOT LOTS OF POTENTIAL HOSTS.

OMICRON HAS BEEN BREAKING THROUGH.

SO EVEN THAT NUMBER THAT I JUST BASICALLY GIVE YOU A ROUND FIGURE FOR IS IMPERFECT BECAUSE A LOT OF THOSE PEOPLE ARE SUSCEPTIBLE.

AND SO WE ARE STILL LIVING IN A PERIOD WHEN WE ARE GOING TO BE CYCLING THROUGH WAVES, CYCLING THROUGH NEW VARIANTS.

WE ARE NOT READY TO SAY IT'S COMPLETELY SEASONAL.

IT SEEMS LIKE A VIRUS THAT WANTS TO BE SEASONAL BUT A NEW VARIANT COMES ALONG AND WE WERE HIT WITH DELTA IN AUGUST.

AND WE CAN SEE IT.

YOU WERE ASKING BEFORE, HOW WE KNOW A NEW VARIANT IS ARRIVED AND ONE WAY IS CLINICAL PRESENTATION, SERIOUS SYMPTOMS, PEOPLE BEHAVING DIFFERENTLY IN TERMS OF BREAKING THROUGH.

AND THE SEQUENCING THAT FOLLOWS.

WE CAN ALSO TRACK IT THROUGH WHAT WE WATCH IT PLAY OUT IN THE POPULATION BECAUSE WE KNEW WHEN THE CDC WAS NOW CASTING THAT WE ALREADY HAD A LARGE CONTINGENT OF OMICRON VARIANT DECEMBER THAT PROBABLY WASN'T TRUE.

OUR WAVE DIDN'T LOOK LIKE AN OMICRON WAVE.

AND I SAID TO THE PEOPLE WHO WE WERE TALKING, WITH WE WILL KNOW WHEN WE HAVE OMICRON HERE BECAUSE THE WAVE THAT WE SEE IN THE COMMUNITY WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AND SURE ENOUGH.

ALMOST EXACTLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY, IT TURNED DRAMATICALLY UPWARD AND SUDDENLY WE BEGAN DRIVING UPWARD AND THAT'S WHEN WE KNEW OMICRON WAS REALLY HERE.

WE HAVE A LOT OF SIGNALS ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING THE SIGNALS.

AND THERE IS A LOT OF REASON TO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS IS IT, THIS IS OVER BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF SUSCEPTIBLE PEOPLE, A LOT OF REINFECTION POSSIBILITY.

SO I BELIEVE AS A SOCIAL SCIENTIST WE WILL FIND A NORMAL, SOMETHING THAT ISN'T AN EMERGENCY RESPONSE BECAUSE WE HAVE TO, BUT THAT'S NOT IT YET.

AND I DON'T THINK THAT PEOPLE WHO INSIST THAT 2019 LIFE IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT WEEK OR NEXT MONTH, THAT'S NOT REALITY.

THAT'S NOT WHAT IS UPON US YET.

THE GOOD NEWS IS WE DO HAVE A LOT OF TOOLS.

Dr. ANDERSON IS RIGHT.

IT HAS TAUGHT US A LOT ABOUT BEING HUMBLE ABOUT OUR SCIENCE.

WE ALSO DO KNOW A LOT.

WE DO KNOW THAT THE VACCINES KEEP PEOPLE OUT OF THE HOSPITAL AND IF THEY GO TO THE HOSPITAL, IT KEEPS THEM OUT OF THE ICU AND PREVENTS A LOT OF DEATH AND MISERY.

WE DO KNOW THAT MASKS WORK AND THE BETTER A MASK YOU WEAR, THE MORE PROTECTED YOU ARE.

WE DO KNOW THAT LAYERING RESPONSES, VACCINATION WITH MASKS, WITH CAUTION AND DISTANCING, WITH ADDED PRECAUTIONS DURING AN INTENSE SPIKE, ARE ALL THINGS THAT WORK TOGETHER TO REDUCE THE MISERY WE EXPERIENCE AS A SOCIETY, AS INDIVIDUALS, AS FAMILIES.

AND REDUCE THE DESTRUCTION.

SO WE DO HAVE WAYS TO COMBAT THIS AND FRANKLY, OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD HAVE LEARNED TO DEAL WITH VIRAL EPIDEMICS.

MASK WEARING IS QUITE FREQUENT AND COMMON AS A HABIT IN CASES WHERE PEOPLE ARE INFECTED.

THEY WEAR A MASK OR IN CASES WHERE FLU IS PREVALENT, FOR EXAMPLE.

SO WE WILL LEARN NEW HABITS AND WE HAVE TOOLS THAT WILL HELP US GOING FORWARD.

I DO BELIEVE WE WILL RETURN TO SOMETHING THAT RESEMBLES NORMALCY AND BUT WE ARE NOT THERE YET AND THERE IS STILL A LOT OF REASON TO BE CAUTIOUS.

>> WELL, UNFORTUNATELY, THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE, BUT I WANT TO THANK OUR PANELISTS AGAIN FOR JOINING US.

DR. KATIE ANDERSON, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF MEDICINE, MICROBIOLOGY, AND IMMUNOLOGY AT SUNY UPSTATE MEDICAL AND DR. CHRISTOPHER MORLEY, PROFESSOR AND CHAIR OF THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND PREVENTIVE MEDICINE AT SUNY UPSTATE MEDICAL BE SURE TO VISIT WCNY.ORG/CYCLEOFHEALTH FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS AND OTHER EPISODES.

FOR CYCLE OF HEALTH I'M DR. RICH O'NEILL.

THANKS FOR CHECKING IN.