(upbeat music) - [Narrator] This is "Carolina Business Review."

Major support provided by High Point University, the premier life skills university, focused on preparing students for the world as it is going to be.

Blue Cross Blue Shield of South Carolina, an independent licensee of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association.

Sonoco, a global manufacturer of consumer and industrial packaging products and services with more than 300 operations in 35 countries.

- When we get through the holidays, including the new year, and come out on the other side, the question is, what will the reality of this economy really look like?

Welcome again to the most widely watched and the longest running dialogue on Carolina business policy and public affairs seen across the Carolinas for more than 30 years.

When we get past the spiced latte, the party drinks, the gift giving, the family activity, the travel, et cetera, et cetera, the realization of economic activity of how it will be next year and what's good policy, will once again demand our attention.

We will try to peek around that corner and get a bit of that with our panelists on this program.

And later on, he is about their fourth president in five years or so, and leads one of the country's largest community and technical college systems.

In a moment, Dr. Jeff Cox from North Carolina Community Colleges.

- [Narrator] Major funding also by Foundation For The Carolinas, a catalyst for philanthropy and driver of civic engagement, helping individuals, nonprofits, and companies bring their charitable visions to life.

Truliant Federal Credit Union, proudly serving the Carolinas since 1952 by focusing on what truly matters, our members' financial success.

Welcome to brighter banking.

And Martin Marietta, a leading provider of natural resource-based building materials, providing the foundation on which our communities improve and grow.

On this edition of "Carolina Business Review," Terik Tidwell from NCID Foundations' Black Entrepreneurship Council, Sara Ballard of the South Carolina Women's Leadership Network, and special guest, Dr. Jeff Cox, President of the North Carolina Community College System.

(upbeat music) - Hello, welcome again to our program.

Happy holidays.

Good to have you both here.

Sara, welcome.

- Thank you.

- Of course you're excited about it now, but we'll see how you feel right after this program, so we hope we don't chase you away.

Terik, you get the first pitch here.

So Terik, we're gonna get through the holidays and boom, the realization of what the economy is and new administration, so many things are gonna be coming at us.

What do you think, and you know a little bit about finance, and VC, and philanthropy, what do you think between tariff talk and possible less regulation, do you think either one of these things is gonna be good or bad going forward?

- Chris, that's a great question.

Good, but I think right now a lot of companies, particularly, large and small companies, are thinking about what is their business strategy gonna look like?

Because a little bit relies on tax strategy, right?

We have the Jobs Act tax bill that's gonna be coming up and remove as of next year, which means what's gonna be the tax strategy?

And also for many companies thinking about importing and exporting, a lot of our businesses here in the Carolinas rely on import and exporting, which also is gonna pass that down to consumers, which is also, how is this going to relate into the business strategy, localizing, finding talent.

We know that right here in the Carolinas, particularly with a new report that came out from Secretary of State, which is that access to capital is a pretty big issue, but also taxes is the number third issue, which is how are they going to manage their tax strategy?

Because also, at least, the third issue, which is talent, can we afford the talent?

And do we have the right cost production systems in place to manage this ecosystem as we go forward?

This is not gonna be an isolated event.

So I think it's more important to think about how is the landscape gonna look and also how do these businesses are gonna recalibrate their strategy.

- You know, as Terik said there, Sara, you said something right before, you know, the camera came on and the lights went up, and that's the idea that it's different in the Carolinas.

It's related, but it's not as coupled to the national economy or even the national politics.

So why do you feel that way and how strongly do you feel that way?

- Yeah, well, very strongly.

I mean, I think particularly in South Carolina, there's this idea of home rule and that we wanna make decisions locally, very hyper locally about the issues that we feel like affect us.

And I think that that carries over into all areas, into the culture, and particularly in the area where we work with more women in leadership.

You know, I mean, another example that we are different here, South Carolina is neck and neck with West Virginia in terms of the lowest representation in our state legislature of women.

4% in the Senate in South Carolina, overall in the legislature, like 13% after this last election.

So out west, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, I mean, many of those states have a majority of women in their legislatures and we're at 13%.

So clearly something is different.

- And I want to come back to that.

I want to specifically key off of something in just a second.

Do you know what the North Carolina statistics are by any chance?

- I don't, offhand.

- [Chris] Of women in leadership, political leadership.

- Yeah, we're really focused on South Carolina and I think, you're fortunate, you are better than South Carolina is.

Unfortunately, we are very dismal at the very bottom.

- Well, let me come back to Terik, you just mentioned something and I promise I'm gonna ask you about women in leadership, in political leadership.

Uncertainty, businesses like certainty.

Do tariffs create too much uncertainty or is it going to be, and I don't wanna overstate this on the downside, is it gonna be a ho-hum moment for those that import and export in the Carolinas?

- It creates a lot of uncertainty because, you know, North Carolina and the Carolinas, is a big import export, but also it creates a lot of uncertainty as it relates to what's gonna be the products that we're gonna see come to the marketplace.

Because a lot of products are developed in countries like Mexico, which we have a big strong partnership with, with import and exporting to and from Mexico, and also to China and from China.

And companies who are looking to do more foreign direct investments, they may be more concerned about that in Carolinas.

Both North and South Carolina - Right.

- Have received a lot of growth and a lot of investments in foreign direct investments.

So I think that creates a little bit of a state issue as well for folks, and we do care about what happens in our Carolinas and wanna localize it.

- And I'm jumping around here between topics, but Sara, back in the summer, there was, I'm not gonna get the headline right, but they were called the Sister Senators in South Carolina and they were not reelected.

And to your point, I wanna ask you this question, is that about, was that about the abortion issue around why they got, not reelected or was there an issue about women in politics there?

- Sure.

And so I do wanna preface that we, South Carolina Women's Leadership Network is not a political organization.

We are about empowering women to step into civic leadership roles.

But I will say that one of our core values is sort of multi partisanship and civility.

And I think that it may have been about the issue, but I also think it was about the climate now in politics where you have to toe the party line.

- Mm-hmm.

- And I think that the powers that be in the Republican party were very angry that the women would not get in line, that they felt that they were voting not only their conscience, but also representing the women in their districts, and what the constituents were telling them about how they really felt.

And shamefully, the turnout in the primaries was so low.

People, you know, people don't show up for primaries.

They don't really understand the importance of primaries in the electoral process.

Particularly, in a state that does lead politically in one direction, that oftentimes if you know that a district is gonna be a conservative district, that the election is really in the primary, not in the general election.

If you know that a democrat is probably not gonna win, the Republican candidates that are vying for that spot in the general election, it's gonna be decided and they may be uncontested or you know, have a very, very strong chance of winning in the general, if people don't show up and vote.

- [Chris] So what's the recourse, what's the remediation?

How long would you see for women to be able to make up the ground that they lost with those Sister Senators?

- Yeah, well the tough thing is that 2025 in South Carolina is really about local elections.

So the good thing is that it's not a lot of partisan politics, but you know, none of the legislature is up for reelection until the house in 2026.

It'll be years after that for the Senate.

And unfortunately, you know, the upper body in our legislature in South Carolina is based on seniority.

And so right now there are no Republican women in the Senate.

It's gonna be the 2040s before we have, even if we get women in the Senate, it's gonna be 10 or 15 years before we have any women in leadership in the Senate.

- Thank you.

And I don't want to diminish that, I do want to get.

In 30 seconds, I need to ask you this.

If there is a recession next year, would access to capital become easier or harder if the Fed drops rates?

- Well, we're expecting the Fed to drop rates.

because in the reports that came out related to labor, it gives a little bit of mixed signals.

So I think there's gonna be a little bit of capital, may be a little bit more affordable for folks, particularly as it relates to venture capital and also for investing and some business.

So that may look good.

Recession, we don't know what a recession's gonna look like anymore because those numbers are changing.

- [Chris] We've been talking about it for two years.

- We've been talking for two years.

- Yeah.

- Which is, we're changing the marks of what a recession really is.

- Yeah.

- So we're just hearing soft landing, but are we hearing more of a soft takeoff?

- All right, thank you.

Thank you both.

Stay with us.

Speaking of recessions, not, yay, maybe, access to capital, dropping interest rates.

Coming up on this program, we do two special programs.

They tend to be, and this is my term, it's not very technical, but they tend to be a bit of a free for all because we have four resident economists that know each other so well that they are as comfortable as family around a holiday dinner table.

And you can use your mind to figure out what that is.

We do a review of the current year, 2024, and then we do a forecast of 2025.

And these economists are always entertaining, engaging, and pretty much know their stuff.

We hope you join us for that.

Our community and technical colleges are in an interesting place in the education continuum.

They don't quite seem to carry the cache for some reason that their four year degreed liberal college and university cousins have, but they also seem to do more of the block and tackling of the activity when it comes to education and economic development.

Where are they headed exactly and how does their stated mission and vision change in light of this much larger national dialogue around education that's going on?

We welcome now, the president of the North Carolina Community College System, Dr. Jeff Cox.

Dr. Cox, welcome to the program.

- Thank you for having me.

- President Cox, when you hear what has come out of DC following the election around education, and there is the new administration wants to do away with the Department of Education on a federal level, what are some of the conversations you have or are hearing among your colleagues and contemporaries?

- Well, it's an interesting question, Chris.

You know, we're mostly driven by the state level funding, but of course the federal funding, the Pell Grant program is essential for all of our community colleges and universities, all of our students so it is an important thing.

I think we're approaching that with some level of skepticism about is that really gonna be the reality?

Totally wiping out the Department of Education and what does that look like if that were to happen?

What does that do about, like, the federal Pell Grant program, for example?

We're actually optimistic and hopeful that we would maybe be able to expand the federal Pell Grant program to include short term workforce credentials.

Right now, it's just tuned into curriculum programs, but we're seeing a movement nationwide with an increased focus on short-term credentials, workforce credentials as being kind of the future.

- Is there a possibility that that kind of dialogue on a national level maybe have, and this is not a leading question, it might sound like it, but maybe have a positive influence on education on the state level?

- I think so.

I mean, you know, we have to look at it through a positive lens, I think, and so, you know, take the hand we're dealt and think, how do we position ourselves to do the very best we can to serve the citizens of North Carolina whatever the federal education policy ends up being.

One thing I'm confident in is our community colleges are gonna play an essential role in the economy.

Whatever policy things happen, the expansion and your earlier point about this kind of competition between the community colleges not ever quite having the cache that the universities have, I think that's changing.

Some people are realizing as we grow tens of thousands of jobs in this state, most of them don't require a four year degree, many of them, not even a two year degree, but almost all of them, some sort of post-secondary credential.

Mostly this shorter term credential.

So we're trying to realign our business model to really focus on that, ask the legislature to work with us on funding these really high wage, high demand programs at a little bit higher level so we can incentivize our colleges to offer more programs, turn out more graduates to meet the labor market demand here in North Carolina.

- Terik, question?

- Yes, thank you.

So I really am curious about the future of work and how the community college system is preparing and hoping to respond to the future of work.

You talk a little bit about short-term credentials, but also about the financing of these short-term credentials and the need to upgrade the kind of the financial infrastructure to ensure that this is sustainable.

I would love to hear what you're seeing and also how is the community college system looking to be more responsive?

- Sure, I appreciate that question, Terik.

Our legislature has been really forward leaning on doing some short-term investments to help us grow and expand new programs to meet the labor market demands, and that's been essential.

if you're trying to start up a new program in a new area, there's a lot of upfront cost, and we're funded a year in arrears, so it takes a while for the funding to catch up with the program.

So these investments upfront have been critical as we build a new program or double the size of a nursing program, but we have to tweak the funding model to make those things sustainable.

So that colleges, as they grow and expand these programs, they've got the kind of funding they need over time to make sure that we can continue to turn out enough nursing graduates in every community across the state of North Carolina.

- Sara.

- Yeah, so tell me, is it true in North Carolina, in the system, that there are more women that are both attending and graduating community colleges?

Does that mirror four year universities?

- It does.

We're seeing that trend line happening, which on the one hand is wonderful for the women, I'm glad to see women increasingly attending higher ed, it's also alarming that so many of our young men are choosing not to pursue any kind of higher education.

- Yeah, well, and I think that that leads me into another question about kind of what you're seeing or feeling from the young men that are in the system.

So we are, certainly when women have opportunities, and their perspectives are represented in government that we all benefit.

- Yes.

- But I know that we're hearing from research that men, or younger men, are kind of feeling left behind.

They're feeling like it's sort of a zero sum game that if women have opportunities, that it's taking opportunities away from them.

So I'm just interested in kind of what you feel like you're seeing and hearing from the young men that you work with in the community college system.

- Well, a lot of it is very program specific.

So some programs are still heavily, you know, male centric, and other programs like nursing, still preponderance of women pursuing those, Though we're beginning to see that that blend a little bit, but I think broadly that a lot of what we're seeing with the young men is they're just questioning the value of higher education and they're just not willing to just take it on good faith that if they go to school and continue their higher education, it's gonna turn into a better life for them.

So I think we have to do a lot better job of being a better bridge between business and industry who have thousands and thousands of jobs that are open, that pay a family sustaining wage and our young men and women who would love to have an opportunity to grow their own economic prosperity.

They just don't know what that pathway is to get there.

And often it's a short term, 16 week program, they can come in, do a quick credential and go out and be making a living wage immediately.

- But Dr. Cox, you know, and not about anything, but when you hear these stories, and I know you've seen them, and I know you've been part of them, and we talk about, Tim Hardee down in the technical college system in South Carolina talks about this, when you have a success with a partnership with a company in a community, - Yes.

- it's a huge success.

How does that just not become a self-fulfilling prophecy on its own?

- Right.

Well, we've certainly got pockets of greatness, I would say around the state.

You know, just some fantastic programs.

We've talked about a lot, the Surry-Yadkin Works is an apprenticeship model, great partnership between our K 12 schools, Surry Community College, and hundreds of businesses and industries up there in northwest North Carolina.

They start out with pre-apprenticeship programs and get those students into apprenticeship programs, and it's truly meeting the needs of the business and industry and helping those communities keep a lot of their local talent, local.

- [Chris] But that's scalable, right?

- It is scalable and in fact, we've worked with the Belk Center at NC State to develop a playbook based on that model that we've shared out across all the colleges.

And we've got a number of our other community colleges across the state who are looking to not, you can't cut and paste that, there's a lot of nuance to that.

It's taken years and years to develop that model with relationships in the community between K 12, our community college system, business industry.

You can't just cut and paste that into a different community, but you can take some of the tenets of it to say what's made that work there and how might we replicate that across different communities all across North Carolina.

- Terik.

- Yeah, I'm curious about, you know, for the last 10 years, you know, enrollment in community college have kind of been on a decline, but it seemed like there's a soft uptick.

What do you see as being some of the levers for moving that needle towards more enrollment, whether it's workforce development, workforce supply, but also businesses who are looking for talent.

One of the challenges for many businesses, particularly startups and small growth businesses, is really getting access to talent.

- [Jeff] Yes.

- And that apprenticeship model is great for very mature companies.

I'm curious about how the apprenticeship model can work to support small businesses that are looking to start or looking to grow and need access to that kind of talent pool.

- Well, Terik, that's a great question.

We've got this apprenticeship NC program where our community college system is the registered apprenticeship owner in the state.

So any registered apprenticeship has to come through us and that leads to, you know, real credentials that students have that they can take with them.

And we've got a lot of infrastructure with that where we can support, not just large companies that have kind of that capacity already to handle apprentices, but we can come in alongside even small businesses and help them really understand what the value is of having that apprentice.

- Mm-hmm.

- We know when we make that connection, those apprentices, most of the time, end up being employees of that company - Yeah.

- at the end of the apprenticeship.

And they are stickier than a typical employee, they tend to stay.

So it's a great investment for companies.

We have about 12,000 or so apprentices, registered apprentices right now.

We've got a vision to double or triple that over the next few years.

We think it's a great way for us to really lean in to help both the students who are looking for opportunity, but don't know quite how to make that connection and the business and industries who are desperate for the talent pipeline.

- Sara.

- Yeah, so you train a very diverse workforce and diverse not just in ethnic backgrounds, and gender, but also in professions.

- Yeah.

- And one of the things that we think also is so important is having representatives that really represent the population.

You know, not everyone in the population is a lawyer or what we typically see in public leadership in our government.

So tell me, I mean, what are some things that you think that, like, a community college system can do to start instilling that passion or, you know, the responsibility for leadership in people that are not in traditional professions that we typically see in, like, our elected and appointed officials?

- That's a great question.

You know, one of the things that I think, one of the challenges that I think we have is when we look at certain professions, like, I'll use the trades for example.

- Yeah.

- If any of us are trying to find a plumber, an electrician, an HVAC tech, good luck, you know?

They're in short supply already.

- Yeah.

- And we know the average age of those folks who are in that profession is about 55 years old.

So there's a trend coming where it's gonna be nearly impossible to those trades workers.

But we've got this mentality that's somehow, work, it's less than, it's not as appealing as a four year degree.

Well, there are beach communities that are made up of nothing but HVAC techs, - Mm-hmm.

- and plumbers and electricians.

They've got their beach homes down there 'cause they've done quite well.

So we've gotta do something to change the dynamic about what constitutes noble work in our society.

And so I think having that representation and bringing folks in who are coming from, what historically we've thought of more as blue collar professions, these are wickedly smart people who can do things that I could never begin to think about doing.

But we haven't really, always given them a voice.

And I think we have to do that.

And it comes down to, you know, with us, with our own kids, you know, do we want our own kids to go get that four year degree?

And I had a gut check moment with my own son, my oldest son, who wanted to go and do an applied engineering degree through Wilts Community College.

And I always thought all my kids would go on and get at least a bachelor's, maybe a master's or doctorate like I did.

But he said, I want to get this degree and go to work.

- Was that hard?

- It was hard.

But you know, I've been preaching that message, Chris, for a while and I had to stop and say, you know what, there is nothing wrong with that.

He's got a great job.

He's making way more than I made as a beginning teacher, right outta college, at 20 years old.

He's married and doing quite well.

- [Chris] Does he have a place at the beach yet?

- Not yet, not yet.

It's coming, maybe.

- You know, you might have talked about, and I liked the way you took, noble profession.

You used that term, noble job, and I think you talked about one of these sectors.

But your own research community college system says that by 2031, you're gonna be close to 600,000 job openings or need to fill those jobs.

- Yes.

- What's the biggest, what are the biggest places that those jobs are gonna be needed?

And we have about a minute and a half.

- Gosh, I mean, I think it's spread across, one of the benefits we have here in North Carolina is a very diverse economy with a lot of different areas.

But you know, the advanced manufacturing is certainly one that's continuing to grow.

We've seen tens of thousands of job openings over the last several years and many many more projected in the coming time.

So again, those are gonna be places that we have to get the community colleges and those business and industry partnered up really at lockstep with each other so that we can truly understand what is the need for that entry level worker, what's that credential that they need?

And then us build programs around that to create that pipeline because we've got about 40% of our high school students who aren't going anywhere to college when they graduate.

- Yeah.

- And we've got a lot of adult workers who are underemployed, who, you know, working two or three jobs without benefits.

- [Chris] Thank you.

- These are great opportunities if we can just make that connection better- - Sorry to interrupt you.

I want to, and we'll have to have you back, but we're always glad to have you.

Thanks for Allegheny's favorite son being here.

Nice to see you, best of luck going forward.

- Thank you, sir.

- Thank you.

Good to see you, Sara.

Terik, always nice to have you.

Until next week, I'm Chris William.

Goodnight, bye.

(soft music) - [Narrator] Gratefully acknowledging support by Martin Marietta, Truliant Federal Credit Union, Foundation For The Carolinas, Sonoco, Blue Cross Blue Shield of South Carolina, High Point University and by viewers like you.

Thank you.

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