- [Narrator] This is a production of PBS Charlotte.

- This weekend "Off The Record", in politics, early voting starts in North Carolina, as both Budd and Beasley bring in the biggies, to campaign for them.

Also, how this year's local elections, could affect next year's property taxes, as well as what your kids are learning at CMS.

At City Hall could tougher zoning and rent rules, make housing more affordable or less affordable?

Well, that depends on who you're talking to.

And what about more privately built toll lanes, for drivers on I77?

That also depends on whether you're doing the building or the driving.

Plus, Charlotte's top 10 growing economy.

Charlotte's top 15 growing homicide rate.

And was the I277 loop, a six mile mistake?

Lots to talk about next on PBS Charlotte.

(upbeat music) And from our PBS Charlotte Studios and Historic Plaza Midwood, I'm Jeff Sonier and we're "Off The Record", talking about the stories, that you've been talking about this week.

And if you watch the news, read the news and listen to the news, well, you'll recognize the names and faces around our virtual table.

Eli Portillo from the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute.

Danielle Chemtob from AXIOS Charlotte.

Genna Contino from the Charlotte Observer and Will Wright from the Charlotte Observer.

You can also join the conversation from home or your phone, just email your questions and comments, to OffThe Record@wtvi.org, well, we're still about what, three weeks away from election day, but the start of early voting kind of also means, the start of a different phase, I guess, of this political season.

Will, you watch politics on a regular basis.

Your thoughts, first of all, on early voting this year, I know that there were lines on day one, outside the polling places in Mecklenburg County.

Any big changes as far as early voting and what are you looking for, as far as numbers are concerned, in those early voting numbers?

- Yeah, well, we'll expect it to be a lower turnout, than a 2020 obviously, 'cause that had a historic turnout, with early voting and just, I think it was 70% or plus turnout.

This, I think we're probably looking closer to the, high 50s or 60s would be great.

It's my understanding and I don't think there are any huge changes.

We will be able to early vote in the Panther Stadium and so that'll be exciting for folks.

And there's, you know, plenty of sites.

So people are able to find someday between now and the end of early voting to get out and cast a ballot and you can register on the same day and vote.

- Yeah, the way the Panthers are playing, there may be more voters there than fans, before the end of the season.

I also noticed that the early numbers, on traditional mail-in absentee votes, far lower this year than they were in 2020, but I guess that means 2020 was the aberration, we're kind of back to where we normally are, on mail-in votes this year, correct?

- Right, I think people are less concerned, about going to the polls health wise.

So now we'll see more return to in person early voting and probably voting on election day, than you saw in 2020, where people were hoping to avoid contact with others and vote by mail.

- Yeah, we also saw some campaign events, coming to Charlotte this week, both Budd and Beasley bringing in big political names, hard to say whether that kind of traditional campaigning, whether there's a payoff and these days of, you know, online campaigns and attack ads and that sort of thing.

I just wondered among the panel, what are your thoughts on, you know, people like Lindsey Graham coming in on the Republican side and Cory Booker coming in on the Democrat side.

Any thoughts?

- Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see, whether it has a big impact.

I don't know that it will, in the sense that you don't, you'll have big crowds of these events.

I mean, Beasley and Booker brought in, I dunno, they probably had 200 or so people.

I mean, it was a good crowd, but in terms of, you know, the voting electorate, it's a tiny portion of people.

Lindsay Graham and Ted Budd had a smaller, a small crowd for a panel discussion.

So, you know, I do think that for Beasley especially, energizing the base in Charlotte to get her out, maybe seeing stories about Cory Booker in town, that could help people, you know, be excited about the campaign, just interest, hear about it.

- Yeah and you've seen the Democrats, put more money into Sherry Beasley and that race lately, you know, they were not doing anything nationally at the beginning, and this week I believe they announced another $4 million.

So I think that that could probably have, more of an impact coming up down the stretch, as more money pours into the Beasley campaign.

But it's still gonna be an uphill battle for her, you know, but is ahead in all the polls I've seen and some of those are, you know, growing.

I think ECU had a poll that had him up six points this week.

So it's gonna be tough.

I think Democrats nationally have been skeptical, of North Carolina after the last two Senate campaigns, you know, kind of seemed within their grasp and then evaporated down the stretch.

So, you know, you're seeing some more money and some more enthusiasm, but it's, I think it's in gonna be an uphill battle.

- Yeah and with this race kind of flying under the radar, compared to the Senate races in Pennsylvania and some of the more high profile ones, you know, I think they're trying to drum up obviously excitement, by bringing in Corey Booker, by bringing in Lindsay Graham, but we'll see, I think the money will definitely make, probably a bigger impact, but we'll see sort of how much this is on voter's minds, certainly is, you know, one of the leading races, kind of driving people to the polls.

- Yeah, those poll numbers by the way, as Ely mentioned, Eastern Carolina, East Carolina University has Budd up six and the Trafalgar Group, another poll released this week, has Budd up plus four that's among likely voters, in North Carolina.

Hey, one more quick item on the Budd, Beasley race, before we move on, actually maybe two items.

I saw that the Dave Matthews Band, is gonna be playing a concert in Raleigh, to drum up a support for Beasley and other Democrats, you know, are the nineties calling, asking for their campaign event back?

Or is this aimed at a specific demographic, that maybe could be key to this particular senate race?

- Jam band enthusiasts.

- Go ahead Ely.

- I was just gonna say jam band enthusiasts.

I don't know if they're a huge part of the electorate, but I do think that this goes back to, you know, what Will and Danielle were saying, of just trying to drum up some interest, some excitement, because all in all, you know, for a race that in theory, could hinge control of the Senate on, it's been pretty low key.

- Yeah, a lot of these events, seem to be aimed at the true believers and obviously those undecided voters, it's hard to know whether, they're affected by either coverage of these events or the events themselves.

I guess that's the one thing we'll all be watching, on election night.

Hey, one quick thing about the candidate, that's not in the race, Pat McCrory returning to the public airwaves, on the radio and also on national television.

Any quick thoughts on on what this means, regarding the former governor and former mayor's political future?

Is it as a commentator or is this a way to, keep his toe in the water if he decides to, run again for something in the future?

- It's hard to see him stepping out of politics completely.

That's just been his world for so long and his main, you know, presence in Charlotte at the same time, you know, after having a number of defeats in statewide races, it's also kind of hard to see him running again.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see Mayor Pat stay on the air, stay politics adjacent, try to influence them, but I think at this point it would be tough, to see him running again, especially for a statewide office.

- Yeah, I wanna switch gears to local politics for a second.

Genna, you did a story recently, about how this year's Mecklenberg County Commission Race, could affect next year's tax bills.

You wanna talk a little bit about, you know, what the candidates running for county commission, are saying about revaluation and property taxes?

- Yeah, so this upcoming fiscal year, will be a revaluation year, which just means they're basically, reassessing property values across the whole county.

And I think residential property values, are expected to go up 48%.

And commercial property values, I think are in the 30% range.

I have to fact check me on that.

But each year with the budget, the Mecklenburg County Commissioners, set the property tax rate, so it will be up to them, if they wanna set a revenue neutral rate.

And that was something that I asked, all the candidates about.

And you know, some of them told me like, yes, with inflation that all of these families, are already suffering in Charlotte, like we definitely need a revenue neutral rate, like we can't raise taxes for these families.

And then others, of course took the safe rate and they were like, we're gonna listen to our tax assessor and make the best decision when the time comes.

So it will be interesting to see it play out.

- You know, taxes used to be one of those, bell weather issues, that every candidate had to answer the question.

Now not so much anymore.

Danielle, did you, were you gonna say something?

- I think, yeah, I think it's important to note, you know, what the rate is is absolutely obviously critical, but a lot of times even when you set a revenue neutral rate, taxes for many folks do still go up.

And a lot of, you know, what's being made a campaign issue and what's a major issue, to communities talking about gentrification, well a lot of the neighborhoods in the last revaluation, and I wouldn't be surprised if this happened again, were in these gentrifying neighborhoods close to uptown and while the average increase, I don't remember exactly what it was, it was something around what Genna said, although again, it was over eight years and now it's four.

So that is pretty interesting.

But, you know, in some of these neighborhoods, instead of it being a 40% increase, it was a 400% increase.

So even if the the rate is revenue neutral, which mean the government takes in the same amount of money, they might still see a big increase in their tax bill.

- Yeah and go ahead Ely, were you gonna say something?

- Yeah, and I was just gonna say, you know, I think that the fact that Charlotte has, and Mecklenburg County has become really, a democratic stronghold probably take, some of the air out of the sales, of debates about local taxes.

Even when I came here in 2009 and started learning about local politics, there were still a lot more competitive district races, competitive mayoral races, and you know, the county commission as well.

And I think that you had much more of, I will, I'm a Republican, I will keep your taxes low, I'm a Democrat, I'll provide more services, much more of those interactions in campaigning.

And there's much less of that now, since we've become much more of a solid blue island here, in Mecklenburg County.

So I think to your point, Jeff, that might be one reason why, it feels like there's a lot less interest or momentum around this issue, than we're maybe used to traditionally.

- Yeah, back in the day, entire campaigns would rise or fall based on, you know, where you stood on taxes.

Now I think the next question voters are asking is, how are you gonna spend that money whether you raise 'em or you don't and that may be the question, that makes or breaks candidates these days, especially as you mentioned that in a county government, that's pretty much dominated by Democrats right now.

Another local race that's gonna probably have more impact, on our lives than we realize right now is for school board.

And Danielle, I know that AXIOS did a story this week, about how local outside groups, not necessarily outsiders from the community, but outside of traditional politics, are getting involved in choosing, the next round of school board members, talk to us about that a little bit.

- Yeah, well this first of all is part of, kind of a national trend of the politicization, of school board races.

You've had groups that have emerge all across the country, including in Mecklenburg County, like Moms for Liberty, which were very outspoken about, first about masks and now and then critical race theory, in that whole debate.

And now they have been really pushing, to essentially ban certain books or take them off the shelves for, you know, for schools.

And so it's interesting, you know, they're mainly getting involved with the district for race, which is actually all Democrats, you know, it's a nonpartisan race, but if you look at folks registration and they've been throwing their weight behind, the challenger to the incumbent Carol Sawyer.

Challenger is well one of the challengers is too, Stephanie Sneed, the former chair, of the Black political caucus, although, you know, they supposedly have never met and never talked but they're basically saying, you know, we are anti Carol Sawyer.

Carol Sawyer believes that, they're essentially against her advocacy for equity and LGBTQ students.

So it's very heated.

There's another group that emerged called Success for CMS, which was registered pretty quietly back in May, but recently put up a billboard against, again, against Carol Sawyer, right?

A lot of it's been against her, not necessarily actively for Sneed, although this group, if you go on their website, Success for CMS does endorse Stephanie Sneed.

So it's really a lot more heated than usual, in this particular district especially.

- Yeah and we're seeing activism among black clergy as well.

They've always been active, I guess in local races, but this year they're actually fielding, a slate of candidates or several candidates and several of the district races, because of their, you know, they're dissatisfaction, with success rates among low income and minority students in the system.

It does seem like we're gonna get a maybe and not necessarily change, but the, you know, the process getting to these races, may be evolving or changing, as these groups get more active, in the actual choosing of candidates and pushing those candidates.

- Yeah, and I think that, you know, to some degree, schools even though the school board is nonpartisan, have always been a political flashpoint.

You know, we have, excuse me, in this community a long history, of really intense disputes about busing and desegregation.

So in some ways this is, almost a return to baseline rather than an aberration.

But I think that it also highlights, how much that other kind of outside, to some degree non-educational issues, are at the fore when really, you know, if you look at the numbers, we've got a school system that really needs to improve, performance and those academic metrics too.

- Yeah, I think that's what most parents are looking for, how that translates on election day, we'll see, I suppose.

But the dissatisfaction with parents and with the community on the success rates of CMS, you know, as you mentioned, the tipping point may be, you know, maybe closer than it's ever been or at least has closer than it's been in decades, when we, you know, had other issues in the past that also were flash points, as you mentioned.

You know, one issue that a lot of politicians, don't like to talk about is toll roads.

And we actually had some conversation this week, about the future of toll roads in I77, no decisions made, but we are starting to see the beginning, of another discussion on whether, you know, whether building privately funded toll roads, is in the best interest of the community and best interest of drivers, the cost versus the, you know, the cost, I suppose the short term cost and timetable versus the long term cost.

Anybody wanna weigh in on where we stand on this?

And ultimately this will be a political decision, that a lot of politicians, don't wanna get anywhere close to right now, based on what's happened in the past?

- Yeah, I think the contours of this, have become pretty clear in the last few weeks.

And basically it looks like the whole decision's, gonna come down to, hey, if you want more lanes, you can have state run toll lanes in the 2040s or you can have privately run toll lanes, you know, in or 2030 or so.

So I think it's gonna come down to basically, look, the state is not gonna pay for this, two plus billion dollar project, in the next couple decades, so if you want it guys, it's gonna cost more and get ready for Cintra and the toll lanes again.

So I think it's gonna be a probably heated debate, but to some degree I think you're already seeing, people being boxed in because there's, what's the alternative?

Wait till the 2040s, unless someone comes up with another plan, that's also not very appealing.

- Well, if it's 2030 or 2040, it's gonna be driving Miss Daisy for me.

I'll be in the backseat with someone else at the wheel.

But it's interesting because this time around, you know, last time around this debate was kind of, you know, in a, you know, in a void, we didn't know, what the new toll lanes would look like.

Now we know how it works, now we know how much money it may or may not save the state, how much time it may or may not save the state and how much it costs drivers on a daily basis.

Does that change the politics or does it just, you know, dig in the opposition even more, now that they've got some real, you know, real life and and real time evidence, of what they were afraid of, you know, when they were building the first round of, toll lanes at 77.

- Yeah and I wonder if the, I mean the fact that it's optional, right?

I mean these are not, they're not making the highway that you have to pay.

So I think people wonder, you know, if I'm not gonna pay, will I benefit from this, will traffic really decrease much, with added lanes that are told, I don't know.

- [Jeff] Yeah.

- Yeah and I mean, before, you know, with 77 North, you know, those tolls can go as high as $58 I believe, at the very, very max end.

So if you go the whole length and it's the most congested, et cetera.

So it's really, I think likely that the state would try to, you know, maybe put some caps on that or something.

So it couldn't be as high if they go, with the private developer this time.

But, you know, it's also possible that it's not as much, of a debate because the North Charlotte, North Mecklenburg towns were really organized.

There was a lot of opposition against it, and we haven't seen that emerge yet.

It'll be interesting to see what happens, when there are more decision points, but right now we're not seeing the same level, of fuhrer that really erupted in the North.

- Yeah, the other dynamic I guess, is that the state is building its own toll lanes, on I485 and the Monroe bypass around 74.

So folks know what it's like, when the state builds them now versus when, the private companies build them and they're a lot less expensive for drivers, when the state builds them.

They just take longer and I guess.

- Yeah.

- And that's the trade off, I suppose.

Do you want the lanes 10 years earlier at a price or are you willing to wait and know that those tolls, will be a lot less expensive for drivers, in the long run, you know, those are decisions, that are decades away or those are outcomes that are decades away.

And the problem is those politicians, have to make those decisions today and face the music I suppose, I'm sorry, go ahead.

- Problem is, no, I was just gonna say, you know, North Carolina DOT don't forget, it's also facing a major shortfall.

So I think that kind of looking at the, really long timeline that they're giving and this is not the only project that where that's happened, where there've been delays in in kind of, when they'll be funded, because of this statewide budget shortfall.

So I think that's kind of in the back of people's minds, is will there be the money for this?

- Yeah a couple of other stories, we've got about five minutes left.

Danielle, you did a story about how the city and Raleigh, the lawmakers in Raleigh, have differing opinions on some of the rules and regulations that might affect, the future of affordable housing in Charlotte.

And as I mentioned in the intro, I guess, you know, whether they make it more affordable or less affordable, depends on which political side you're on, can you talk a little bit about that discussion, that maybe is happening in a broad sense now and may, you know, boil down to actual proposals, in the near future?

- Yeah, so I think that there's been a conversation, this isn't necessarily new, but the last couple of years we've been talking about it, with the 2040 plan, it kind of comes up, every time we set major policy, where you have folks, who believe that there should be regulations, such as what's called inclusionary zoning, which is essentially requiring affordable housing, in new development.

And in other policies, you know, I don't think rent controls really come up here, but that is, you know, another example of things, that other states have done, where it's essentially a regulation, that requires affordable housing or requires, you know, rents to be at a certain rate.

And there's this difference in philosophy, between folks in Charlotte and kind of generally, usually Democrats and progressives and the Republicans in Raleigh and also builders and developers, who say that regulations add to the cost of development.

And so if you require affordable housing, they're gonna have to raise the price of the other units, is what they'll say in order to compensate and then, you know, their argument is, will that kind of make the crisis worse, right?

But overlying all of this is what authority Charlotte has.

So even if you know, right, because we were just talking about, Charlotte is predominantly controlled by Democrats, but that doesn't mean that they can just go out and pass an inclusionary zoning policy, because we have what's called, Dylan's rule in North Carolina, where local governments can only exert authority, that's explicitly given to them, essentially.

So because we are not explicitly given the authority, to allow inclusionary zoning or to require zoning, affordable housing in zoning, excuse me, you know, we can't do it, we could, but they could potentially come back and then outlaw it at the state level.

- You know, so where does that leave, you know, goal setting and priority setting, at city hall when you know the priorities they're setting and the goals they have are dependent, on another political body, that doesn't agree with those goals or doesn't agree with the means to get there.

You know, this doesn't seem like the ideal process, for decision making and progress, you know, when it comes to affordable housing.

- Yeah and that's kind of been an achilles heel, in Charlotte with a lot of issues, that the city would like to have more control, over its own destiny from Raleigh.

So it's kind of just the political reality, that we are in here and you know, unless there's major changes at the state level, in terms of powers or the composition of the legislature, it's not likely to change anytime soon.

- [Jeff] Yeah.

- I was gonna say that the the city does try to, I guess, squeeze in the regulations where they can and the county too actually.

But we saw about a month ago, both the city and the county pass, source of income protections.

So for any future projects, that have any local government subsidy, they can't deny folks with housing vouchers or section eight vouchers as they, which may be a tool to be used in the mean time.

- Yeah, another example of something, the city wants to do but can't do without permission from, you know, from people, who disagree with them politically, yeah.

Couple of quick things, the economy, Charlotte number eight, on a new list of the top 10 growing economies, among cities in the US.

Charlotte also number 15 on a list, new list of top, you know, top 25, I think it was increasing homicide rates.

I think the police departments said homicides are up 26%, since last year and that's not a good thing.

And I wanna spend the last minute or so talking about, I277, Ely you wrote a story this week, about whether that road that we've all come to accept, was a mistake to begin with.

Talk about, you know, your thoughts on I277 now and in the future.

- Yeah, so that was a feature in Charlotte magazine and I basically looked at the history of I277, how it came to be and what might change in the future.

This was a road that was kind of constructed piecemeal, at the height of American Highway building.

It demolished and went through, historically black neighborhoods, like a lot of highways in the US and you know, it doesn't really serve a great purpose now.

It was described to me as a giant interchange.

If you've driven on it, it's in bad shape, it's backed up.

So I looked at some ideas like tearing down half of it, maybe the southern half and leaving the northern half or capping it, building something on top of it like other cities have done or perhaps maybe even someday if we get really ambitious, removing the whole thing and reconnecting uptown, with a grid of streets like it was for decades and decades and decades, before we got into kind of highway building and urban renewal mania.

There's nothing on the books right now, but I'm hopeful after reporting this story, that we could see changes in the future.

- Yeah, I was a city hall reporter, when they opened the Belk Freeway portion, of the I277 loop, which kind of dates me, but it seemed like such a good idea at the time.

Now I think everybody kind of avoids it, like the plague whenever they can.

It's not the place you wanna be, especially at rush hour, but even most times of the day, it's, you know, it's not necessarily traffic, but it's the, you know, the threat or the danger or the safety factor of getting out and off that road.

Hey, we're outta time, but I do appreciate you guys joining us today, for what turns out to be always, I think a pretty good discussion.

Thanks for joining us at home as well.

If you wanna send comments or questions, about what we talked about this week, send them to OffTheRecord@wtvi.org.

Thanks for joining us and we'll see you next time.

On "Off the Record."

(upbeat music) - [Narrator] A production of PBS Charlotte.