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- The much anticipated midterm elections are now days away.

We are actually in early voting here across the Carolinas.

I'm Chris William, and welcome again to the most widely watched and the longest running program on Carolina business, policy, and public affairs.

Seen each and every week across North and South Carolina.

Thank you for supporting it.

In a moment we will unpack, will it be a surprise control of the Republicans or will it go another way?

One thing you can expect with politics is you can expect the unexpected.

We will find out what that means and we start right now.

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(upbeat music) On this edition of Carolina Business Review, a panel discussion featuring Anna Beavon Gravely of NCFREE, Andy Shain from the Post and Courier, Dr. Susan Roberts of Davidson College, and Antjuan Seawright from Blueprint Strategy.

(upbeat music) - So welcome again to our program and welcome to all of you.

Before we start into the dialogue, I wanna make something we're pretty excited about and that is, we are actually going to be back in the studio.

No more of looking down a hallway.

No one's more excited than I am, but more importantly, back into the studio means hopefully in large steps and hopefully all, definitely always, but certainly beginning in November, we will be back in the studio.

Like to welcome all of our panelists to, our veteran panelists of this program.

Susan, we haven't seen you while, but welcome and Susan, I'm gonna start with you.

- Yes.

- Early voting, it seems to be the thing now becoming more popular.

Is it more than a novelty?

Does early voting say something to you?

- Well, I think we'd like to think it was a measure of enthusiasm, but for some people it's just convenience.

Some states don't have early voting, some have just a small window of early voting.

But I think it's a thing that's here.

And I think it's not just a pandemic related phenomenon, but I think it's still more convenience than it is everybody's really enthusiastic.

Oh, there's some numbers that show high enthusiasm among both Democrats and Republicans for 2022.

- As you speak about it in North Carolina, Susan, I think Andy in South Carolina, it's not brand new, but it's still fairly new.

How has it gotten traction?

What's your thought?

- Very much so.

I mean, you know, of course during Covid we saw the numbers go up, but I think that's going to remain, you know, everyone remembers how lines have been so long at some of these elections.

And of course we, like everyone else, we've had shortages of workers to work the polls.

So I think to avoid those lines and to of course, just to take advantage of the idea that, you know, you don't have to go out on a Tuesday to cast a vote.

We're seeing a lot more of this early voting.

- AB, Antjuan, let's take this.

Is there some direct correlation or relationship between early voting numbers as you both see them and just straight up election turnout?

- Well, I think early voting numbers drive election turnout.

In fact, I believe voting is perhaps the most consequential thing a person can do.

What early voting provides is an opportunity for working people to participate.

And it serve as an encouragement tool for people who do not normally participate in a voting process to participate.

And that's why I'm so proud that South Carolina came together in a bipartisan way to expand opportunities at the ballot box, and I think across the country, we should do more to allow working people an opportunity to participate in their democracy.

- Could I add one thing?

Oh, go ahead.

- I was gonna say, just in North Carolina we've seen early voting, but also we have the absentee voting.

And we're one of the states that uniquely, you don't have to say why you're gonna request an absentee ballot, you can just request one.

And that starts even a month earlier than today.

And so we've been voting in North Carolina for a while and I think that puts a lot of pressure on campaigns and campaign advertising.

This morning I was getting ready and in a course of five minutes there were only political ads and there were three different campaigns and people are getting lots and lots of campaign ads.

And I think earlier than normal, specifically toward the latter part of the summer, we saw a lot of campaign ads to really account for early voting and absentee voting.

- And Chris, in an environment where there's so many efforts to suffocate and suppress the votes of people who look like me, early voting is a strong indication of an opportunity to push back against this idea of suppressing people votes.

The problem or the challenges comes in when you have reasons you have to have to early vote like South Carolina has had in the past.

I think it was 15 or 17 reasons, but most of us have to work on election today.

Some travel, some have all these reasons.

So no excuse absentee or no excuse early voting works out good for democracy itself.

- So Susan, were you trying to get something in?

- Well, excuse me.

I just think long term what this can do with absentee ballots coming in and an increase, it's sort of like there's what they call a red mirage that Republicans are doing very well on an election day.

And so people think that's the way the election is going to turn.

And that leads to a lot of uncertainty because it's really now election week.

I mean, a lot of races will not be decided on election night.

- Andy, do you get the same?

So let's shift, let's talk about the Republicans.

Republicans think they're going to take at least nationally, the House and the Senate.

We'll talk about some races in the Carolinas in a second, But Andy, do you think that that's gonna come to fruition?

Do you think that the Republicans will be in charge?

- You know, again, the sense nationally is that the Republicans have an edge in the house with a number of, with some races that the Democrats thought were gonna be competitive, thought were theirs, essentially districts where Biden did well, they're having to fight for their lives.

The Senate seems to be very much of a toss up at this point.

You know, it, you know, the national ebb and flow of momentum for the Democrats seems to have, you know, been going and then maybe slowing down a little bit as we're heading into the final weeks here, you know, before the election.

So I think it's a lot of, it's gonna be just like a football game, you know, who has the ball in the fourth quarter, so to speak?

Who has the momentum in those final weeks?

- Yeah.

Can we expect the unexpected, anyone?

We all know how elections go, Donald Trump in 2016, surprise, surprise.

But can we expect the unexpected, even though it seems like some of the races are given, or is it just way too close?

Anyone?

- Look, I think that, I'm from South Carolina where it's never a good idea to predict the weather three weeks out, three months out, or even four days out.

As we all know.

- Antjuan, I could make a joke about how it's gonna rain for five minutes every day during the summer.

- And so it should be told, we oftentimes make these predictions based on history, but what we do know about the election, one has become more diverse, two, more people are paying attention.

And three, there's a bigger opportunity to rewrite the narrative of history.

And I do believe that Democrats are gonna shock people.

What polls cannot measure is enthusiasm.

And I'm here in Atlanta, Georgia in real time.

What I do know is that when you see the early vote numbers and the people participating early, no poll can measure that.

When you see the fact that we have some of the most diverse candidates in our nation's history up and down the ballot, and that's gonna drive its own set of turnout, no poll can measure that.

And we also know that polls are simply a snapshot of the time, they do not define the times.

And so I'm cautiously optimistic that history will be rewritten in a different way with the president in power of the party that will end up being in control.

- Let, me go in a just different direction for just a second then we're gonna talk maybe more specific races, but Anna Beavon, Susan, the idea that in North Carolina, early in the spring, and Andy, I'm gonna give you a chance to articulate this as well in a bit, in North Carolina for the first time, probably in the state's history, I think that's safe to say, the unaffiliated registered unaffiliated voter was more populous than registered Ds and registered Rs.

Does that, will that have a longer term effect beginning now and going forward?

Susan?

Anna Beavon?

- Yeah, absolutely.

I think that's gonna have a huge impact.

I saw some statistics the other day about how we know when it comes to, to map drawing that Republicans live near Republicans, Democrats live near Democrats, unaffiliated are scattered across the state.

There's no real rhyme or reason.

They don't really flock to their own, they're scattered everywhere.

Which that from a campaign standpoint and from just a purely educating voter standpoint, that's complicated.

That's really hard.

You have to spend more money to really educate those people, introduce them to you.

And that's just gonna mean more and more money coming into North Carolina, which is gonna then influence more and more unaffiliated who are moving in based on how quickly our state is growing.

- Susan, how has it distorted politics in North Carolina?

- Well, I think it's made it as it does everywhere, very unpredictable.

And that uncertainty is something that candidates do not want to see.

I think it has these unmoored voters, there's some research I was involved with, they're not necessarily leaners anymore.

We used to say, you know, there's no real true independent, they lean one way or the other.

That's still true, but to a lesser extent.

- Andy, what about South Carolina?

You don't have to register in South Carolina that I just found out about, thank you.

But does that, do you expect that that dynamic's gonna have some impact?

- I, the joke I always say about South Carolina is that everybody thinks they're fiercely independent.

So, you know, don't tell me who to vote for, but you know, we know, obviously we see how the results are come November.

You know, I think, you know, there's a lot of who do I like to vote for?

Whose opinions do I want to go with?

I tend to, you know, hear a lot of folks who have said, I voted Republican here, I voted Democratic here, you know, with a few that of course are, are at either end of the spectrum.

So I think that people are looking what whatever issues are important to them, abortion, the economy, and seeing who the candidate is that they think will fulfill that the best.

- Antjuan-- - Classic North Carolina.

- Yeah, that's a classic North Carolina move.

We jump back and forth, President, US Senate, Governor, Council of State, we've been playing that game for years and I think the unaffiliated voter is really starting to reflect that in a different way.

- Let's unpack a little bit about priorities Andy, you just mentioned it, but Antjuan, what do you think voter sentiment's gonna reflect when we look back right after the election?

What will the priorities be?

I know they're all up there; inflation, the economy, abortion, gun rights, education, et cetera, et cetera.

But how do you think it's gonna prioritize?

- Well, I think pocketbook issues are gonna control the day.

I think it was Bill Clinton who had that wonderful philosophy of thought that said, it's the economy, stupid.

I do think the pocketbook issues are gonna run today in South Carolina, we say bread and butter, barber shop, beauty salon, nail salon issues.

In my family, we say the things that keep you up at night and the things that you wake up in the morning thinking about.

I remember being on this show just a few months ago and I told my dear friend Anna Beavon, that she argued, well she made the case that gas prices was going to be the order of the day.

And I told her that was only going to be a snapshot and things were going to change.

And now people are trying to drum up enthusiasm around inflation, but truth be told, if Democrats were smart, if my party was smart, they would talk about all the things we've done to deal with inflation and what Republicans refuse to do to assist them in dealing with inflation.

And point out the fact that inflation is a global issue, not just the United States of America issue.

And Democrats are not in charge of the world.

- Well, I think too that I'm not sure that, you know, the Inflation Reduction Act and promises about infrastructure are going to be part of the voter calculus right now.

I think it really has changed.

And I was thinking that abortion, access to abortion, was going to be a real driver in this election.

And in the last few days, I think it's been eclipsed by the economy, by gas and groceries, and voters tend to vote short term.

I don't know if that's going to be something going into the polls, and as we said, Chris as you mentioned, is there going to be an October surprise?

I think my October surprise so far is the price of gas and groceries and that's more an intimate issue.

And I think it may be that I'm wrong and the agenda will look more at the big picture that the Democrats have put forward, I'm just not sure.

- And Chris, I would just tell you the one thing we have on our side, this is where our offense is our defense.

The fact that when it comes to lowering the cost of gas, lowering the price of energy, lowering the price of goods and services and just level the playing field, although voters cannot feel it today, Democrats have done it and Republicans are on the record voting against it.

And that's why I think that we have not been strategically smart in delivering our message, talking about this election being a choice versus one versus the other.

- Yeah.

Andy, Anna Beavon, this is my words and it's not meant to be leading, but doesn't the pain of this inflation, which is, it's not to overstate it to say this is historic, not just the the rise in cost and the rise in energy, but what we've been through, isn't this going to be agnostic to those political battles we always do and it's going to come down to how people are feeling about their own personal finance.

- Oh, absolutely.

It is 100% how you're feeling about coffee going up 17.7%, that's coffee.

I bring that up because that is super important to us political people.

We need it, especially right now.

And you've got bread and butter like these major issues that Antjuan mentioned earlier that are just not seeing a break.

And so what we could spend in the grocery store now gets us half, a fourth, depending on what it is.

And that's what people are remembering.

I think my surprise, and I think Susan, you somewhat like alluded to an October surprise is definitely that the Democrats keep holding on to the message of abortion.

They keep pushing that as a major driver.

And in trying to really ignite and get people to show up to the polls, whether it's early voting or on election day, around the issue of abortion.

The messaging that is even MSNBC is starting to talk about how that is, that's not the right move.

And when you have crime and safety moving above abortion, the economy, pocketbook issues, inflation, all of those are being broken out separately in different line items that are surpassing the issue of abortion.

And really it's just resting on the economy and crime and safety.

- Andy?

Hold on.

I know you want to respond to her.

Antjuan, hold on just a second 'cause I know you, if we let it you two, I know you lovingly go at.

- Love it.

- Love that part of both.

But, Andy, I want to give you a chance to shoehorn something into this.

I mean, so how do you feel about these issues that we've talked about?

- Well, first of all, I feel like I should have a bras uniform on.

But yeah, but no, honestly, you know, I do think that, you know, again, what I'm hearing anecdotally, you know, and around here in Columbia and other parts, is just that, it's how do I feel about sort of the, the direction of the country, the direction of the economy?

You know, to a certain degree, again, yes, there's a lot of anger, you know, among, among a large group of people about the abortion situation.

But in the end, I think that, that people care about those, again, those immediate touchstones that they have when they go to the grocery store, when they're trying to buy birthday presents or buy a Halloween costume this time of year or, and again, also about crime, even if it's not happening in your neighborhood.

There's just this perception.

And again, the Republicans have been doing a very, I think a very effective job of saying there's a lot of danger out there, there's a lot of issues going on, and this is who you need to blame for it.

Even again, even if you've not been the direct victim of any of these crimes.

- Let's unpack some local races.

Susan, what do you think's key to watch in North Carolina?

Really what's going to be, what are gonna be the races that really impact people and not just the national headlines, but it could mean something closer to home where you are?

- Well, I think looking at Bradford and Beasley is going to be an important race.

We've had in the past, this is the race, is the pivotal race that'll change control of the Senate or capture it or lose it.

I think it's really number, you know, it's not one of the top five races in terms of being the race to watch.

Here's, you know, I know about that, here's something I don't know, about and that is, I don't know about all the races and all the senate seats and house districts, but control of the legislature is very important.

If they can get control of both the house, if the Republicans can get the super majority, it's gonna have a big impact than, I don't think it's calculable at this time.

So I think both things are important if you look at the Senate race, but also some of the other races, and we don't have a lot of, as Anna Beavon said, we don't have a lot of races in which you might split tickets except at the lower level.

So I think it's two pronged.

The Senate race is very important for control.

The House races and Senate races in North Carolina are very important for the super majority and what will go forward and that will hit some issues like education and access to abortion.

- Antjuan in South Carolina, do you see anything, I know that there's a Cunningham McMaster gubernatorial thing going on, but is there something that could be crucial or key or any surprises?

- You know, of course I'm paying attention to all the races 'cause I believe in this idea that the closer your government is to you, the more important it is for you.

And what we've seen is oversized effort by Republicans to take over general assembly, but even more so than that, school board races and local races have been more critically important to I think the entire political ecosystems to watching that.

I think that one of the bigger races to watch quietly in South Carolina is our superintendent of education, which we have a candidate who did not meet the qualifications when she won the nomination to be the superintendent of education and well, within three to four months she received a secondary degree, a second degree in order to meet the qualifications, should she win.

I think teachers and others who've had to work hard to earn their graduate degrees like me feel some type of way about that, so I'll be curious to see what the response is to that at the ballot box for those who are actually in tune and paying attention because in South Carolina we may not win other statewide races, but the superintendent of education race has always been one to pay close attention to.

- Andy, what do you think?

Andy?

- I'm sorry, were you talking to me or Anna?

- Yeah, no, I'm sorry, they do some familiar.

- They do, yeah sorry.

- Yeah, Andy.

Andy, what do you think coming off of Antjuan's comments?

- Oh, sure.

No, I was actually, in fact, I was gonna mention the superintendent race.

I mean that's, in a way that's a bellwether because of it's, again, it gets a little bit to the culture issues that are going on nationally about, you know, again, how do we educate our children?

Do we find alternatives to the public education system, you know, and again, what ideology essentially is gonna win out in this.

So we have a race between, you know, someone who's been with a basically conservative think tank and looking at some of these, some of these alternative issues in education.

And then we also have someone who's been a, you know, a huge advocate getting teachers together for pay and for other things.

So it's gonna be, that's, I think that's a really a big bellwether race.

But I think the nickel question here is we're a red state.

Is there anything that's really out there to prove that we are gonna really adjust that even in a race like superintendent of education that might, you know, win, we might have some people going over to the de Democratic side more than, say, the governor's race.

- Yeah, you know, just as a sidebar, you both mentioned the superintendent of education, of course, Molly Spearman, current superintendent.

I mean, she's really, and this is not leading, but she really has defined that role as being important.

Not that education wasn't, but the way that she approached it, she all of a sudden makes that office plus plus because of her leadership and because of the perfect storm that education is that critical in the Palmetto state and in North Carolina.

Would that be accurate to say Andy or Antoine?

- You wanna take that Antjuan?

- About this-- - Go to you, Andy.

- You know, this was about Molly Spearman's leadership and how she, you know, we wanna spent a lot of time on this, but she kind of defined that role as being a crucial-- - Well, I think what she did was she defined a role in being willing, even though elected as a Republican, being willing to work across the aisle with Democrats in the General Assembly and get anything done legislative wise, but also being a teacher engaged superintendent, meaning she cared about what administrators think, thought, she cared about what teachers thought.

She also cared about what bus driving, some of the other collective folks that make up the education ecosystem.

And that's a breath of fresh air in South Carolina compared to the previous superintendents.

And I think she took the politicization of that role out of it and made it more of a specialty role.

- Anna Beavon we have have two minutes left.

I wanna give you a chance to weigh in on what you're watching and also what you're watching now following some reapportionment that has gone on.

What do you think is important to watch here?

- Yeah, I think the key conversation, and Susan touched on this, is really the super majority question, will the, will the general assembly in North Carolina, the Republicans get a super majority in the House and the Senate?

I would've said at the beginning of the summer and have said that it, that the House was not gonna get a super majority.

However, we've gotten closer and closer to the election, I think that there's, that's a really great option and it looks like it's gonna happen for them.

The races that I find most interesting are the ones the governor's involved in.

So our governor took an unprecedented move in getting involved in two primaries in the Senate and the incumbent that he advocated against lost.

So the governor got his way.

- Which one, what are you talking about specifically?

- Yeah, there's a race in, in far northern eastern North Carolina and in Fayetteville where the governor got involved and advocated against the incumbent, one specifically because he voted against the governor and was more likely to lean toward Republicans.

He was a true moderate in a place where that's just really hard.

And that was not something that our governor was interested in maintaining.

And since then he has gotten involved in four different Senate races.

He's kept his focus on the Senate because, I think like many, many people were looking at it and thinking that that was the best shot for him to really, they had the greatest opportunity for a super majority and that was where he was gonna spend his time in energy.

And he is using the messaging of abortion, backing female candidates, which is, all of this is very new and super unprecedented.

- Thank you.

I wish we had more time, but that has been a little antithetical of what Governor Cooper in North Carolina has done in the past.

Thank you.

Thank you all.

Susan, Good to have you back.

Andy, nice to see ya.

We didn't intentionally kick Antjuan out.

Something happened, but we'll have him back, I promise.

- I was just saying, I'll say thank you for everyone.

- Okay.

Thank you all.

Vote.

Have a good weekend.

Until next week, goodnight.

- [Narrator] Major funding for Carolina Business Review provided by High Point University, Martin Marietta, Colonial Life, The Duke Endowment, Sonoco, Blue Cross Blue Shield of South Carolina, and by viewers like you.

Thank you.

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