Welcome to politically Speaking.

I'm Elizabeth Bennion, chancellor's professor of political science and director of community engagement and the American Democracy Project at Indiana University, South Bend.

This week, we're exploring the aftermath of the Indiana primary election.

And we've got a panel of reporters here to break it all down for us here today, our Brandon Smith, statehouse bureau chief for Indiana Public Broadcasting.

Nikki Kelley, editor in chief of the Indiana Capital Chronicle and Mark Mazurek, a reporter for Wcvb Public Radio.

I want to start with the race at the top of the ticket, at least for our state races, which is the governor's race.

US Senator Mike Braun seemed to claim an easy victory over Republican hopefuls seeking to be the next governor.

To what do you attribute Braun's decisive victory?

Brandon?

I'm going to borrow a line that, a colleague of mine, Mike O'Brien, who's been working in Indiana politics for a couple of decades now, is has used a few times.

which is that the simplest explanation here is probably the right one.

Mike Braun got into this race with the most name recognition, having served in a statewide office.

that was at the top of the ballot, in the US Senate for, for, you know, four and a half years, by the time he got in four plus years.

he had a ton of money and the ability to self-finance a lot.

and then he got an endorsement from Donald Trump.

that'll pretty much do it for you in a state like Indiana.

so there are some other factors at play.

The large number of candidates, who were part of that race was was definitely part of it.

A heads up race between Mike Braun and Suzanne Crouch, or even A33 way race between Braun, Crouch and former Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

That could have been really interesting.

but yeah, I'd say the simplest explanation here is probably the right one.

Nikki Chambers and Dotan both spent a lot of money on this race, including some self-funding, as did Crouch.

So in your view, why didn't that money make a difference?

I think in the end, if everyone is spending a lot of money, like, you know, the money really helps when it's uneven and someone can put it to work.

But if everyone has a lot of money, it kind of cancels it out, right?

I kind of I totally agree with Brandon.

My forever regret will be.

I would have loved to see what kind of race I could be with 2 to 3 candidates, I think we would have seen a lot more substance.

I think obviously the margins would have been closer.

So, you know, I guess what could have been on that one?

now, one of the things that I wonder might be frustrating to both of you covering state politics for a living is how many people said they didn't know who Suzanne Crouch was throughout this campaign, despite her serving as lieutenant governor for over seven years.

Any thoughts on that?

I mean, yeah, that's that's born of political apathy.

That's not unique to Indiana.

I mean, you know, there's study after study about how many people can't name their congressmen, can't name their governor, can't name their US senator.

It's basically, you know, the president and everything else is a is a crapshoot.

so certainly in office, like lieutenant governor, which is not separately elected in Indiana, unlike other states, where it's on the ballot by itself.

And so you run by yourself and maybe have a little bit more of that name recognition.

but I mean, again, to Nikki's point, if it was just Braun and Crouch crouches, money versus bronze money, Crouch, his name maybe would have gotten out there even more.

But when it was, you know, ad after ad after ad, and not just in the governor's race, there were so many competitive, congressional primaries in, in most of the districts this year.

So that in those areas and those markets, you were seeing ads for those races, too, because a lot of them were well-funded.

So it was you were just getting this deluge of ads, and after a while it all kind of washes away into nothing.

It did seem that the final results for Braun, though very decisive, were not as decisive as some of the polls moving into election Day suggested, with a number of those deciding voters seeming to split their votes among the five other candidates.

did that surprise you at all?

You know, I think that's what a couple different polls had shown that the undecideds were dropping over, you know, as we got closer.

But the undecideds were dropping evenly.

And so, you know, Mike Braun was still way up.

And so that that's exactly what, you know, we saw.

Obviously polls aren't perfect, but in this race they were incredibly predictive.

They were incredibly consistent, you know, throughout no matter who was doing the polling.

So I think, you know, they were right.

Absolutely.

This played out pretty much the same way in Saint Joe and Elkhart counties.

Didn't get Mark.

largely, yes.

Braun did win both Elkhart and Saint Joseph County.

There was some local flavor, however, Curtis Hill actually did, get second in Elkhart County.

Curtis Hill, of course, was the former prosecutor of Elkhart County, for a few years in the early 2000.

So his name had a little bit more recognition locally.

He did better than DotD in Saint Joe County as well.

but largely the same, in Saint Joe and Elkhart counties.

And back to your point on the the polling, very briefly, I think it'll probably take a while to sort through the data, but the there was some conversation about whether there would be mischief voting, you know, Democrats pulling Republican ballots.

potentially Braun polling a polling a little bit higher than, than he ended up doing could be an indication of that.

But I don't know if we'll be able to tell that right here sitting just a day after the election.

And one note since Curtis was brought up, which is a great point about Elkhart County, but, I think if there's a single surprise in the gubernatorial, the Republican gubernatorial primary results, it's that's the it's the Curtis finished at this point, from what we can tell is going to finish last out of the six.

I don't think anybody had him higher than fifth, but the fact that he couldn't beat out Jamie Ritenour, who most people had never heard of before a couple months ago.

it feels like the nail in the coffin to his, statewide political career in Indiana.

Although.

Never say never.

but you've got to wonder what he's going to do next.

Now that I mean, I would think for him, that's an embarrassing result.

Agreed.

And maybe not just even statewide.

He was.

He threw his hat in the ring to replace, former U.S.

Congressman Jackie Walorski.

and that's local to the second district up in, the northern part of the state.

And he lost out to to Rudy Yocum in that race, too.

But good point, Brandon.

So how if at all, it does bronze a victory moving forward.

Make any how will he make changes to his message, if at all.

Do you think you expect to see him change his strategy or messaging?

Now, going into the general election?

I think he'll stay pretty consistent.

I mean, as a reporter, I can hope that his message becomes a little more defined.

including, you know, some actual plans and proposals for what he would do if elected governor.

He pretty much avoided that completely during the primaries, saying that he would wait until after that to to delve into, you know, real policy proposals.

So hopefully we get to hear more of what he would actually govern, like and less on the big national topics.

One of the things that's interesting about his remarks after the election, I thought, was his talk about forgiveness and the importance of the party coming together.

Of course, they're coming together to support him, but, do any of you have thoughts on what he might be thinking in terms of Lieutenant governor or when he might make that announcement?

is it possible that one of these primary opponents, could end up on the ticket?

I, I would find that a little surprising.

I mean, generally, the the tone of unity after the primary is pretty common because, I mean, we've seen the evidence of what happens when you don't do that here in Indiana, which is in 2012, Richard Mourdock, who beat, incumbent Richard Lugar in a very, very bloody negative primary, didn't really rebuild those bridges, and it ended up costing him what he needed at the most in the general election.

but I think he'll get some I think he'll get support from a lot of his opponents, despite how negative this race went as well.

But I would be a little surprised if any of those opponents end up as his running mate.

in terms of the timeline, it's got to be pretty soon here that the Republican convention is, early to mid June.

I think it's the 15th if I'm getting that date correct.

and in Indiana, lieutenant governor, candidates are chosen by the party convention delegates.

This year, we have an unusual situation in which there someone might come back with a far right, religious conservative is running separately for lieutenant governor.

so normally the way this process works is whoever wins the gubernatorial primary says this is who I want to be.

My running mate.

And then the convention delegates just rubber stamp that.

Well, Michael Beckwith is taking a different angle on it and saying, no, no, no, no, I don't care what they want.

I want to be in governor regardless of what the person at the top of the ticket says.

we'll see if Braun goes with Beckwith, which is a possibility, though I've heard that that would be a surprise.

but yeah, but the timeline here is is, close.

Although candidates generally do a lot of that work ahead of time before the actual primary.

Maybe I read a little too much into his statements, but he was asked.

My problem was asked yesterday, you know, will he recommend an LG candidate, you know, running mate?

He said, yes, I guess I took that to mean it wouldn't be Michael Beckwith, because he's already filed and has paid the, you know, the dues to be in the convention.

So if it was going to be him, you know, why why would he have said that.

So you know we'll see.

But that's obviously top on the list I think for the for the new nominee to worry about now.

I wonder what you all think in terms of Jennifer McCormick, the Democratic candidate moving forward.

How will the fact that she now has a named opponent affect her choices moving forward?

And is there anything a Democrat can do to win a gubernatorial race at this specific moment in the state?

I mean, we never say never in politics, but what are your thoughts?

I don't think general McCormick's message will change.

She was going to run relatively the same campaign, regardless of which of the candidates had come out of that primary.

because they were all running a similar profile to a certain extent, I suppose if Brad Chambers had won.

Maybe her messaging wouldn't have been as effective, because it would have been a little harder to draw the distinctions with the most moderate of the Republican candidates.

But but yeah, I mean, she's focusing on reproductive rights, trying to make abortion and the state's abortion ban.

a top of mind issue, for voters.

And she thinks I think that's her path to victory is if she can motivate voters the way we've seen in other states around abortion, if she can motivate voters on that issue, specifically in the race for governor, that's really her best shot.

but no, it's extremely unlikely that a Democrat will win a statewide race anytime soon in Indiana, barring something pretty remarkable happened.

And with the fact that there are exceptions, very few exceptions, but a few exceptions in that state, law, abortion ban, and are there even enough voters who she might be able to turnout on that issue?

Well, I mean, maybe, but the point I mean, part of the reason you say I'm running on this is to, you know, you want to change it.

The fact is, there's no way for her to change it.

Even if she would run the most remarkable campaign we've ever seen and raise, you know, a lot of money.

You know, we have Republican supermajority.

She can't do anything to make the law any different on abortion in Indiana.

And so that's going to be kind of an odd and odd thing to watch, if that's her main motivating issue, that she actually can't impact.

Now we have voters across 22 counties in Indiana and Michigan, but many of them are from the Saint Joseph County and Elkhart County area near the night station.

And I wonder about some of those local races in Saint Joe and Elkhart County, and how the outcomes of those races reflect the state more broadly, and the local political landscape.

Mark.

Oh, there's a lot of, things to dive into locally.

You'll probably have to cut me off, Elizabeth.

if I'm going too long.

I think a lot of eyes on the Democrats side.

we're on, the reelection campaign for Senator, David, as God ski.

There was, some reporting that uncovered that he, had paid, $8,000 to settle a claim of sexual harassment, against a former employee had made against him back in 2017.

There was a lot of divisions within the Saint Joe County Democratic Party as to whether there would be calls for his resignation, whether, there was not whether in what way it was going to be addressed.

a couple of notable local leaders, including South Bend Mayor, James Mueller and a fellow state rep, Maureen Bauer, stood by Niezgodski.

And he, cruised to a, cruise to win the primary over a challenger of Tim Swagger.

It the numbers actually didn't it didn't end up being that close.

It was the same margin, about the same margin that Niesgodski.

Won previous primaries by, in, another key race in the state Senate, district.

let me check my notes here.

that would be district eight.

We did it.

We did have incumbent Mike Bohacek he lost a primary to a, a more right wing candidate, Joe Lane.

That was an interesting one that I don't know if a lot of people saw coming.

and then out in Elkhart, incumbents also did, pretty well.

We had, county commissioner in Elkhart County, Suzanne Weirich retained her seat for county commissioner.

We also had, state rep Joanna King that seat house for 49 out by Middlebury.

She retained her seat against a, more right wing challenger.

and then one, race I will end on here would be.

Which would be the St. Joe County Commissioner three, primary.

And this is one where you would textbook of every vote matters, especially in a primary.

We had a Tony Hayes and he actually won by I think, 42 votes was the final count over, challenger Tom McCormick.

And again, when you're talking about Saint Joseph County Commissioner, it might sound a little bit, a ho hum.

But these are the executive branch.

there's three of them.

They're the executive branch of Saint Joe County, and we you're talking about, you know, the General Motors $3.5 billion battery plant or the $11 billion Amazon plant, the largest, development project in the history of the state.

I believe those, projects in the in tax incentives for those projects specifically have to be approved and vetted by these, local, races, local officials, and for that kind of money to be, when you're talking about that kind of money, someone being elected into office is dealing with that by fewer than 50 votes is certainly very wild.

certainly very interesting.

So don't let it be said that your vote can't matter, in a, in a primary, even in Indiana.

Great.

Just everybody can matter in those local races.

I also think it's interesting that he's got ski race, which got a lot of attention statewide.

There were so so it went so negative.

There were so many mailers, social media, ads, lots of money pumped into that race.

But it's still overall seem like a good day for incumbents generally.

Mike Brokercheck, of course, now in a more conservative district than he was originally elected to, so he may be an exception for that reason.

He would be the exception.

And I just I want to clarify, I believe Brokercheck one.

Yeah.

Gotcha.

Check one he now Saint Joe he lost Saint 20 County.

but he won his.

Yeah.

He won his election.

There were only two incumbents across the entire state who lost races.

that that's in the state House level, last night, one of whom was Sharon Nagel, who was in the, Tippecanoe County area.

She lost a race to a challenger who really focused on the Indiana Economic Development Corporation, and its leap district and the idea of taking water away from places like Tippecanoe County and moving it down south to Boone County, where that district is located.

he made local control and local decision making a key part of that race.

And it's interesting to note, if you look at the spread of that district while, Nagel won Tippecanoe County, the most populous county, Matt Commons, the challenger who beat her, blew her away in the rural areas.

So clearly a message that resonated.

And then the other one was, in northwest Indiana, the newest state senator, David Van Zandt, a Democrat, lost to a challenger that he beat, but in a different kind of election.

So Van Zandt only became a senator in January to replace Eddie Melton, who became mayor of Gary.

And so he he beat out then Gary City Councilman Mark Spencer in a private, precinct caucus by like two votes.

So it was very close.

And Spencer had been Melton's kind of like this is my preferred candidate.

Well, Spencer ran against Van Zant in the open primary and beat him pretty good.

which is an interesting sort of way to look at the results of a private caucus versus the results of an open primary, and why some people think that to replace, lawmakers who retire early, we should have special elections instead of private political caucuses.

Yeah.

For, for fact checking.

That's why you have to have three journalists on the show and not just one.

That's right.

Belichick won a Saint Joseph.

he lost Saint Joseph County, but he did win his race overall.

That's my mistake.

Well, and I think the thing with Saint Joseph and that was had to do.

And Vacek was very concerned about this with the amount of Saint Joey has and the part of Saint Joe he has changing from the past so that his district that he was originally elected into, which is extremely, competitive, has become more conservative over time, making it more difficult for him to win the county.

even if he can pull out, it is a much, much, more challenging, battle that he was anticipating there.

I do want to talk a little bit about the congressional races.

We saw that Congresswoman Victoria Spar actually reentered the race after saying she would not run for reelection in Indiana's fifth district, but she did secure a victory not getting a majority of primary voters.

But was how did this compare to the expectations of going into that really competitive race?

Honestly, in recent weeks, I hadn't heard any concern, really, about whether she'd be able to pull it out.

in the end, she's represented that that, district.

She has very big name I.D.

there.

And so I think her win was, you know, pretty expected.

maybe the margin was a little closer.

to me, the more interesting races were in the sixth and the third and those, you know, watching those kind of go back and forth all night was was quite a bit of fun on an election night, where usually you kind of know what to expect.

I will say, I think, I agree with everything Nikki just said, but I think, it goes back to, I mean, if you look at the common thread sort of between the third, the six, and, and the fifth district race name I.D.

matters, maybe more than anything else.

Victoria Sparks the incumbent, even though she'd gone out and come back into the race at the end of the day, voters knew her name and saw her on the ballot and said, oh yeah, I know her.

up in the third district, the person who ended up in a very in a well-funded and a well-run primary between a lot of candidates.

The person who emerged was Marlin Stutzman, who served as the third district congressman for half a decade.

Not that long ago, after he was defeated by Todd Young in the primary for the U.S. Senate.

Right.

And then in the sixth district, that was one where there was no single candidate who was going to have huge name I.D., because of something that already done because of the nature of that district, you had a couple of businessmen, you had a couple of, state lawmakers, but who represented only parts of the district and not all of it.

And so what ended up happening was the guy who spent the most money in was on, had the most as Jefferson Shreve, who previously ran for mayor of Indianapolis, was the one who emerged the only case.

What I would argue the name I.D.

alone didn't seem to decide things was in the eighth Congressional District, where, again, a former congressman, John Hostetler, was running in that race but couldn't beat out, Mark Messmer, a state senator who does represent parts of that district in the Senate.

and but I think at play, there was some really negative ads, centered around Israel.

a couple of different PACs who backed, Republicans who support Israel was, and candidates in general who support Israel or they perceived to support Israel were really going hard after Hostetler.

And that might have made a little bit of a difference, thinking about these competitive races in terms of even being challenged and at least having competitive primaries, rather than uncontested races, which also saw a lot of do you get the sense based on the people that you talk to, that these contests are good in terms of, generating some public interest or enthusiasm or knowledge?

even if they go negative.

You know, I just I think there's a fine line between not having any opposition and having 8 or 9 candidates, and I just feel like, you know, voters were overwhelmed in some of these districts.

You know, it's hard enough to keep track of 2 or 3 people, everything that they stand for and what they want to do.

And so I think while we had competition, it went so far on the spectrum that it almost kind of hurt the races in general.

I think it's hard to say whether if you're asking Elizabeth, if party leaders like some healthy competition, they probably do.

I think what we're seeing, though, is that if there are primary challenges, at least up in the Saint Joe County Elkhart area, specifically on the Republican side, the challengers often go extremely negative in the in this most recent election, have positioned themselves as much further right than the establishment, quote unquote, candidates that they're looking to try to unseat, even if the current establishment candidates are, in fact, rather conservative.

So there's some danger there in losing some appeal to a general population.

and then in the other, the more the most notable Democratic primary that saw challenger in Saint Joe County again in this Gonski versus Tim Swagger primary, very based on negative ad campaigning surrounding, NAS God's key sexual harassment allegations.

So these these primaries do tend to get very negative.

At least that's what I'm seeing locally.

So I'm not sure if party leaders appreciate that.

but it's certainly something that challengers seem to use as a playbook, to try to get their foot in the door.

Yeah.

I'm just wondering quickly, in the minute or so we have less any surprises in terms of state House or the presidential primaries?

Like basically, did things go the way you all thought?

Nikki and Brandon?

I'd say on the whole, yeah.

the only maybe slight surprise is an incumbent who didn't lose state Senator Mike young.

southwest Indianapolis Speedway.

he's left the Republican caucus in the Senate.

So they didn't give him any support.

And he had a legitimate, formidable challenger.

But again, going back to my theme name, I'd name it, I'd name it.

He still ended up winning.

And on the presidential side, I'll just say there are there is a lot of chatter today about the fact that Nikki Haley, who's no longer candidate, got 20% of the vote in Indiana.

Yeah.

So we'll have to wait and see what, if anything, that means for Donald Trump moving forward nationally with his campaign?

unfortunately, that's all the time we have for this weeks, politically speaking.

So we'll have to catch up before the general election.

I want to thank our guest, Brandon Smith of Indiana Public Broadcasting, Nikki Kelly of the Indiana Capital Chronicle, and Mark Mazurek of VPI.

I'm Elizabeth Bennion, reminding you that it takes all of us to make democracy work.

We'll see you next time.

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