Welcome to Politically Speaking.

I'm Elizabeth Bennion, chancellor's professor of political science and director of Community Engagement and the American Democracy Project at Indiana University, South Bend.

For the first time in 40 years, Michigan Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

Joining us today to talk about the Michigan State legislature and changes we've seen under the New Democratic Party majority are Rick Pluta senior capital correspondent for the Michigan Public Radio Network.

Lauren Gibbons, capital reporter for Bridge Michigan.

And Chad Livengood, politics editor and columnist for the Detroit News.

Thank you all for being here.

Pleasure.

Thanks for having me.

Great to see you all.

Now, Rick, I want to start with you.

How has the Democratic Party trifecta shaped policy debates and legislation during this first half of the 2023 legislative session?

Well, the big question coming out of the elections and going into January, which is after four decades of not having any, you know, unified control over state government, it was either Republican control altogether or divided government.

How quickly, especially with these slim majorities, were Democrats going to move on policy priorities?

And the the answer was very quickly that basically they you know, that they stopped the bottle of all of their policy priorities and started moving them through with repealing right to work, restoring some union rights, abortion rights, although that was largely backed up by a ballot question that was also adopted by voters.

And it just I mean, they just moved very quickly with the power that they have.

Obviously, you know, they're going to use it while they have it.

Lauren, based on what Rick said, it sounds like the Democrats have been very successful in holding together the members of their caucus, given that they have really a very slim lead in both chambers.

You know, at least for the time being, that is accurate.

I think the big question will be can the Democrats continue that momentum with the budget, which is a little bit more complex or other policy issues?

I think the Democrats had a lot of priorities right in the beginning that are pretty widely popular among among Democrats, reckless it off a whole bunch of them.

There were a few others, but those those were all pretty low hanging fruit, I think moving forward, especially especially as we get into the budget season and to see what the compromise comes out to be.

That's when we'll see if they can continue holding the line for the most part.

Now, Rick, as Michigan's budget deadline of July 1st approaches, what's the current status of budget discussions?

What should viewers be watching for most closely?

What might be some of those kind of controversial inner-party debates within the Democratic Party that we might expect to see some serious discussions about?

Well, the state's official budget deadline is October 1st because that's when Michigan's fiscal year begins.

The July 1st date is important because those are the that Michigan's fiscal year doesn't align with the fiscal year that does begin on July 1st for local governments and school districts.

And so that's what makes that important.

And even though it's become the practice over in recent history that, you know, really over the years, in the decades, it was a lot more common for the Michigan legislature to blow past that July 1st deadline, leaving local government, school districts and whatnot, having to, you know, guess what their budgets were going to be and proceed accordingly.

Now, they've made a commitment to the degree that you can in this environment that at least the municipal, county and school district budgets will be ready to go by July 1st.

But state departments and, you know, other things, those could be left hanging, you know, hanging fire for a while.

Lauren, do you expect a party line vote on the budget?

And do you expect much disagreement among Democrats about those local government budgets?

I think it really remains to be seen.

One caveat of this whole budget conversation is that for the budget to take effect in time for the October 1st deadline, they need at least a little Republican support to give it immediate effect.

So Republicans are part of these conversations to some extent.

Certainly, they're trying to work out the targets amongst themselves.

But at the end of the day, they at least need to give Republicans a little bit of concession to get the budget through on time.

Now, that said, in terms of Democratic agreement, there are competing factions among the party.

There's certainly a lot of different, more left leaning than others, more moderate who are in really competitive political districts.

So there's there's some differences of opinion.

Certainly a lot of lawmakers have pet projects that they would like to see included in the budget.

So without without knowing the exact details of what the compromise plan Democrats come up with, it's a little hard to find more here.

Could you explain a little bit more what you mean when you talk about the need for Republican support and what kind of procedural rules that Republicans could rely on to delay the budget?

Okay, I guess I'll take that one.

Yeah, it's you heard Lauren refer to a motion called Immediate Effect, and it requires two thirds supermajorities to become activated.

And it's a very the the Michigan Constitution's says that new laws take effect after the end of the session without this procedural motion.

And that's really, really important.

You know, for example, if you want to have an effective date before then, you've got to say that it doesn't work unless the law is activated in time for that effective date to matter.

And that's where immediate effect comes in.

It's very, very, you know, sort of an insider game, but it's very, very important in terms of how Lansing works.

And because those motions require super majorities, that's the that's the power card that Republicans have to play in in these negotiations.

So important, 50% plus two votes is not enough to get you there.

Not not for you know, not for immediate effect.

If you if you're willing to wait and if you're in a position where you can wait, which is not the case with the you know, with the budget and some other things, then you know, it doesn't matter.

But it's if it does matter, then, you know, you need to get to those numbers or, you know, do some other procedural things like maybe end the session earlier than usual, which is one of the things that's been talked about.

That that ending session earlier.

It's called sine die and in in so if they do that and there's there's some believe that they will do this this fall in order to get some some laws on the books in particular the presidential primary law in order for us to have a primary on the 27th of February and go early in the 2024 presidential election cycle, we have to have that law on the books, presumably by the 26 of February.

And so if you wait till the end of the year, 90 days after that is is the end of March.

And so it's too late.

And so they will presumably have to adjourn early in order to meet the deadline.

And get the law on the books, books and other laws.

And the unions want their right to work repeal on on the on the books tomorrow if they could.

And and so they want they want the Democrats to adjourn early as soon as possible so they can get right to work repealed, prevailing wage restored in a whole lot of other things that that they are working on right now.

As union contract bargaining with card companies and suppliers and things like that are, you know, are on the horizon.

Yeah, we should we should know there is, you know, a lot of workers contract talks coming up in September with the big three and this is a crucial every four year renegotiation of national contract talks in in right to work in Michigan in the Michigan Auto plants is going to be a big issue for some of the UAW to get to get their their contracts changed again.

And right to work being whether or not all employees in a shop need to buy in to the union pay dues to be protected.

That's right the repeal essentially says that if you are going to work in a unionized shop, you have to either become part of the union or you're paid what's known as an agency fee, where you pay, you pay a fraction.

Usually it's half or more percentage rather rather of of the normal union dues you pay to the union as a condition of employment.

Now, I want to follow up a little bit on ending the session early, because this may be confusing to our Indiana viewers.

Indiana has a part time legislature that only meets January through March or January through April.

And so there are pretty tight dates.

And if they end early, they won't be meeting again for a very long time.

What would happen if they choose to end the session early?

How quickly could they resume the next session?

The governor could convene a special, special session of the legislature, or even conceivably multiple special sessions of the legislature happening simultaneously.

And, you know, we conceivably get to, you know, set the agenda by choosing the subjects that they're supposed to be coming in on.

It's not happened before.

So there are a lot of open questions as to how that might that might play out.

And to, sorry just to add to that a little bit, it's definitely, you know, with the pattern that we've seen from Governor Gretchen Whitmer and the Democrats, I would highly suspect that they don't plan calling it a day early and leaving it the I would say if they do go that route, if they do ends the current legislative session early, I would suspect that there will be some kind of special session and play.

Well and Lauren, wouldn't that fit in with sort of the playbook that we've seen that, you know, Governor Whitmer and the Democrats are trying to, you know, squeeze all the power that they can, all the results that they can out of the, you know, power that they have, even to the point of, you know, maybe trying, you know, some experimentation to see what the boundaries might be.

Yeah.

We should add, we also have two members of the House who are running for mayor in different metro Detroit suburbs and Democrats.

And if they are to win their primary in August and then go on and win the general election, Democrats would certainly not be in power, or they'll be rather it would be a split.

And so and you'd be in shared power.

And so there is that there is a bunch of other elements here that are working against them.

They've got they've got to get their agenda done.

Now, as Rick said, while they're while they're still in power.

Chad, how are Republicans responding to their new status as the minority party in both chambers of the state legislature?

How much success have they had in shaping the agenda or blocking major Democratic initiatives.

Of the in this immediate effects issue, this is this is where operations have had their have had their power now and they're still holding this.

And and and and they have leverage in this process.

And I think in the budget we'll see know Tim, sometimes it takes a while for reporters to sort of suss out who got what in the budget because sometimes they have a tendency, whether it's in Republican or Democrat control, to just throw a whole lot of stuff in at the last minute and roll, go out, you know, at 6:00 on on June 30th and and vote for it by 1 a.m.. And and so what we're going to find out if the Republicans are trying to work straight here to get immediate effect.

They may they may offer up a media effect in, you know, in exchange for some of their priorities in the budget.

There is still in excess of 6 billion or more dollars of surplus funds that are at stake and can be used in the budget by the legislature to monetize piled up in the pandemic from either some love over federal aid or just a whole lot of additional sales and income tax receipts.

And and so, you know, there's there's no shortage of ideas in this town, too, on how to spend it.

Rick, Following the passage of gun safety laws, many of Michigan's counties declared themselves Second Amendment sanctuaries.

I wonder if those counties are encountering resistance or opposition.

What's happening now and what do you expect to happen down the road?

We can't stitution all counties or constitutional sheriffs that I mean, there is some sheriffs and local law enforcement have said they won't enforce, you know, things like, you know, gun seizure orders if people are somehow deemed a threat.

But the attorney general, Dana Nessel, who is a Democrat, has said that in the event that sheriffs or local law enforcement don't enforce these these, you know, protection orders, that her office will find some way to enforce them, possibly enlisting the assistance of sheriffs in adjacent counties, maybe trying to bring in the Michigan State Police to do the same thing that we haven't given details about how that how that might work.

But she has said that that's, you know, that's on her plate.

If, you know, local authorities don't enforce the orders.

Now, Lauren, what do you expect to see from the legislature during the second half of the year?

Will it be all budget all the time, or are there some other issues that you expect to crop up?

Well, I think they're trying to get it done with it as soon as possible.

One thing that is on the horizon, Democrats are talking a lot about energy policy.

That's something a lot of their supporters would like to see.

Environmentalists like to have the legislature take a little bit more of a stronger stance on climate change and some of the issues that she was having in the last several years with power outages and flooding and those kinds of things.

So I would expect that to come up relatively soon.

This hearing starting.

There's also some elections related legislation that is currently going through.

Michigan passed a pretty big changes to how financial disclosure of lawmakers and other elected officials at the state level are handled, as well as changes to the election process allowing nine days of early voting.

And so that's something that's currently being discussed right now as well.

But all that said, if the budget goes well before the end of June, the legislature's currently scheduled to take a brief summer break and come back raring to go in the fall.

Chad.

And Rick, any other additional things that you think viewers should be looking for from the legislature?

Well, I. Oh, go ahead, Chad.

Well, I would be looking for various ethics and integrity laws and reforms.

There is kind of a still ongoing brewing scandal that came out of our marijuana licensing board, where the former chairman of the board, who is a former House speaker, has pled guilty, along with a couple of lobbyists, to taking and accepting bribes and, you know, and and and there's a there's still an ongoing investigation on that.

We don't really know where where that fog is going to end.

And then we've just we've had a lot of campaign finance issues in Michigan for many years that Democrats have campaigned on fixing.

When Republicans were in control.

And this might be their moment to do that.

And I would expect that we also Michigan is one of two states in the entire country where the legislature says that everyone is subject to subject to FOIA except us and the governor.

And and so the Freedom of Information Act or an open records law.

And so there's a big push among some prominent Republican and Democratic senators to to bring Michigan into the 21st century when it comes to transparency a little bit and make make the governor's office in the legislature subject to the same law that they make, the road commissions and the city councils and and even state government departments are subject to.

I was going to say that coalitions operate more cordially at the beginning of, you know, at the beginning of the relationship than later on as you go into it, that will see the executive branch and the legislature.

You know, I mean, we will see it's just natural, more fissures to happen.

I mean, one of the things that we're already seeing that is economic incentives to try and lure and establish more businesses in Michigan.

I think that there are going to be some differences on energy policy, especially when it comes to things like, you know, the line five pipeline and, you know, drilling for natural gas and that sort of thing where there are the regional differences may actually be a little more powerful than, you know, political party loyalty.

So that may create disagreement within each party saying.

Yeah, that, you know, that that they'll be negotiating with each other on, you know, they what they want to have happen and not just between Republicans and Democrats.

With an eye on jobs and their districts and how it affects their own district.

Look district loyalty, your district is always going to take precedence over loyalty to your party because you know, there is a word for politicians who don't do that.

And it's called job seekers.

Yes.

You're assuming you're already seen as plenary now.

And this is there's legislation to so to take away the ability of local municipalities decide permits for mines, for sand and gravel mining.

And this is a long simmering issue.

And there's legislation sponsored by Democrats and Republicans to shift this from the locals to the state environmental department.

Huge back lash.

And and there's interesting areas where you got Democrats, particularly in the House of Representatives, who are from pretty marginal areas in the exurbs of Detroit.

And there their reelection could just get sunk if they voted for for, you know, stripping away the ability to be of their local town ships to block sand and gravel mine.

And so, you know, finding votes for those kind of bills is going to require a lot of bipartisanship because there are just going to be elements of the Democratic Party majority that are not going to vote for it.

Lauren, how do you anticipate the recent appointment of GOP state party chair Kristina Karamo, might affect the discussion of the Republican Party, the agenda and the direction of the Republican Party, particularly given her concerns about the 2020 and 2022 elections as we head into a presidential election year in 2024, do you expect that to occupy a lot of the political debate, discussion and discourse in the state?

I think we're already seeing a lot of Republicans shy away from the state party just because of Kristina Karamo, comments, actions, her inability to fundraise the same way that previous gop chairs have.

You see the House Republicans enlisting former Governor Rick Snyder for fundraising, going outside of the traditional party structure?

I think that will be a really interesting factor to watch as we go into 2024 is certainly in the past year, Karamo has been a pretty avid Trump supporter in her position as chair.

She's technically not supposed to endorse at this point.

We'll see what happens.

But I think a lot of a lot of Republicans and conservatives are just sort of watching and waiting to see how this pretty drastic shift in the party is ultimately going to affect.

I think a lot of people have written off 2024, especially for an open Senate seat.

We haven't really seen any major contenders come forward in it, which is, you know, looking back, that's kind of surprising.

You think that more people would be interested in that.

So so I think there's going to be some long reaching consequences for the party.

Rick, in the last 30 seconds or so that we have Senator Debbie Stabenow, of course, have announced that she will not seek reelection in 2024.

Do you expect that that will be a really tight race?

I mean, with only 52.8% of the vote that she got initially when she won that seat in 2018, is that anybody's seat?

Well, I mean.

Right.

It should be a competitive seat.

But as Lauren just pointed out, that there aren't serious Republican contenders coming out and, you know, it seems like, you know, one Democrat in the Michigan congressional delegation, Elissa Slotkin, is moving closer and closer to wrapping that up.

Unless someone jumps in pretty quickly to try and stand in the way of that.

Now, in Michigan, I and elections are quirky and volatile and anything can happen.

But, you know, that does seem to be the trajectory right now is that this should be, you know, a bang up fight.

And it is not shaping up to be at this particular moment.

The volatility will be interesting.

I think the most recent poll I saw said that a majority of folks, 53%, had never heard of Congresswoman Slotkin.

So I suppose it's still anybody's game.

But unfortunately, that will have to be all for this week's Politically Speaking.

We're out of time, so I want to thank our guests, Rick Pluta of Michigan Public Radio Network, Lauren Gibbons of Bridge Michigan, and Chad Livengood of the Detroit News.

Thanks also to you, our viewers, for watching.

I'm Elizabeth Bennion and reminding you that it takes all of us to make democracy work.

We'll see you next time.

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