Welcome to Politically Speaking.

I'm Elisabeth Bennion, chancellor's professor of political science and director of Community Engagement and the American Democracy Project at Indiana University, South Bend.

And Tuesday, Michiganders headed to the polls to select their primary nominees, their party nominees in the August primary election.

Joining us today to recap the results and discuss their significance are Rick PLUTA, senior Capitol correspondent for Michigan Public Radio Network, and Lauren Gilbert, capital reporter for Bridge, Michigan.

Thank you both for being here.

Rick, I want to start with you and ask you, what are some notable outcomes from the recent Michigan primary elections and how do these set the stage for the general election in November?

Well, I mean, in the statewide elections, we had U.S. Senate primaries and the results were expected, which is, you know, kind of a development in a state where we've really had a lot of wild ride elections.

But it's going to be former Congressman Mike Rogers, who hasn't held office for, gosh, how long has it been?

Ten years, Laurin, in in Michigan.

But he moved back here from Florida after being a media analyst on intelligence matters and all of that to run for an open U.S. Senate seat.

He got the Donald Trump endorsement, which is really, you know, big in Michigan.

Republican circles, just like most other places.

And the setup is against someone else who's got some national security background, which is.

Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin And they're both looking to fill the seat.

And that was vacated by incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow for for a very long time.

That is really interesting.

Was the Democratic race between Elissa Slotkin and Hill Harper was that results surprising at all, given Harper's status as a relatively famous actor on CSI New York, Good Doctor and other shows.

He's a familiar face.

Or was Slotkin really the heavy favorite going into the primary?

Yeah, I do.

sorry.

Go ahead.

No, no, no, no.

I'm sorry.

Yeah, It's like it was definitely the heavy favorite.

She entered the race early.

She's been known as a formidable fundraiser and so far has lapped the field both on the Democratic and Republican side in fundraising.

And she was running a statewide campaign the entire time she was doing the primary cycle.

And until Harper, while he did have some support, especially in Detroit and Flint, and he also had a had good numbers in Saginaw.

So some of the cities, he never had the same clout and name recognition that Elissa Slotkin did, at least when it comes to getting the TV ads out and getting the primary.

Ironically, the TV factor was a lot less prevalent on and on the airwaves than Elissa Slotkin was throughout this primary cycle.

Yeah, with about 73% of the vote, it seems like Slotkin really was dominant, as was Mike Rogers, over both of his competitors, winning about 63% of the vote.

Now that that those party candidates have been decided, how do you see that particular race evolving over the next few months?

Starting with me?

Sure.

Okay.

Well, it's going to be, you know, in Michigan, it's in many respects, I guess everywhere it's a turnout game.

And Democrats do better when there is larger turnout.

And Michigan recently amended its constitution to allow for a lot more voting options.

And one that's become really popular is early voting and that certainly was a big deal in in this primary election, kind of a test run for the general election.

And so both Republicans and Democrats are going to focus on, you know, on that.

Republicans have a problem in that they've been denigrating these other voting options as being unreliable.

And now they sort of have to flip that and get their voters to go and drop their ballots off early and things like that or risk being left behind.

And the mechanics of voting in a statewide election or any election in Michigan can make a big, big difference.

And law in Debbie Stabenow, who held that seat since 2001.

So this is a big change potentially for well, either way, I guess for Michigan voters, there's expected to be a lot of money poured into this race.

And also, I think the expectation is that it will be a close one.

Is that your assessment based on everything you've been hearing?

Yeah, absolutely.

Michigan is a battleground state.

And certainly Senator Stabenow, her name recognition, her long time incumbency would have made her a heavy favorite.

Her leaving the seat leaves it open.

And while she has thrown her support behind, Elissa Slotkin is already starting to do campaign events with her and for all intents and purposes, is endorsing her for the seat.

It's not going to be easy for Elissa Slotkin.

That said, it's not going to be easy for Mike Rogers either.

A lot of it really comes down to how well Donald Trump and Vice President Harris do in the in the general election, how they're playing with voters, because the top of the ticket may ultimately decide this.

That said, both parties have seen the opportunity to make inroads as, as Rick pointed to Republicans have been really pushing to sort of change the narrative among Republicans who may have been skeptical of mail in absentee voting, saying early voting is a secure option.

So so there's definitely a lot of opportunities for both parties here because there's there's really no clear winner at this point.

You also expect strong coattail effects based on what happens with Harris and Trump at the top of the ticket.

sure.

I mean, the everybody knows that the top of the ticket always matters.

And if support for the top of the ticket collapses, then that has effect all the way down the ballot.

If there's a lot of enthusiasm for the top of the ticket, it's the same.

The only difference is when you're talking about enthusiasm at the top of the ticket, you want to make sure that voters stick around and vote their entire ballots.

And I guess maybe this is a little bit what what Loren was even alluding to or an addendum to it is, you know, there are there are basically three ways that campaigns win and lose elections.

And one is getting their voters out.

And one of the ways that they lose them is their voters just become decent, hammered and stay home.

They think it's not worth it.

They're going to lose anyway.

Anything like that.

The polling to date about the top of the ticket has mostly been Trump versus Biden.

We're just getting some, you know, early indications on Trump versus Harris.

But one of the things one of the dynamics in Michigan is, one, remember Donald Trump has never won more than 50% of the vote in Michigan.

And now you've got a newly invigorated Democratic ticket.

And to there's not a whole lot of evidence that Donald Trump and the Trump coalition have room to grow.

And so Republicans are going to need to do something about that dynamic in terms of either a supercharged effort to get out their voters or somehow making inroads with persuadable voters in the center.

It's a it's a small number, about 20%, I think.

But that 20% is going to make all the difference.

I think following up on that back in February, Michigan does have a system quite different than many states where you had your presidential primary back in February.

Before this August primary, four other races, Joe Biden received over 81% of the vote in the Democratic primary.

Republicans gave about 68% to Donald Trump with I think about 27% going to Nikki Haley.

I wonder what, if anything, that tells us about what might happen in this general election?

Or is everything different now with J.D.

Vance on the Trump ticket, Kamala Harris replacing Biden and also, of course, naming Governor Tim Waltz as her running mate.

How do these changes, do you think, affect the way that Michigan voters may respond?

Yeah, I think in Michigan, it's difficult to extrapolate the primary numbers, the primary turnout with the general election, typically it's a different crop of voters.

Those are the real enthusiastic, you know, typically, you know, heavily Republican or heavily Democratic voters and then the general election cycle.

A lot of that does depend on the enthusiasm for the Democrats.

That will mean, you know, there has been so many changes in the last month.

There is a new presidential candidate in addition to a new vice presidential candidate.

It feels like that is that has been a long time already, but it's really only been a matter of weeks.

So whether that enthusiasm about the change up at the top of the ticket carries over is going to be critical for Democrats.

And then I think the true the true mission for the Trump campaign is Rick alluded to a moment ago, is to try and win some of that enthusiasm back, really rally their base.

And it does seem as though, you know, him not being the center of attention, not being the center of the news cycle.

And really Democrats have been, you know, sucking the air out of the room for him and and candidate fans, that that's where Republicans really need to work, is getting that enthusiasm back.

And then they can work on, you know, wooing those independent voters that will ultimately be critical.

You know, the then fairly sizable GOP vote for, they could be some crossover voters there for Nikki Haley.

Does that suggest that Trump also needs to win back the loyalty of some GOP voters?

And in addition to folks who may have sat out the primary or an election this time, I guess every you know, there's no specific one thing that you can say that the election is going to turn on.

It's going to turn on everything.

And so, yeah, that even if there is a sliver of those Nikki Haley voters who haven't come home to the Republican Party and and there is then that is something that Republicans have to have to worry about.

One of the I was it Lauren is absolutely right about the primary and the general that there are different races in the first place, although it does give each party an opportunity to identify who their core voters are and then they can use that to build out networks and, you know, gather volunteers and door knockers and things like that, which which definitely can make a difference.

But like you said, it's it's just it's a different race.

With Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.

It's just adjusted so many dynamics.

I want to move for a second down much lower the ballot to county level races and what some are calling the Ottawa impact on the election cycle or what it tells us about what might happen.

I understand that the very conservative candidates in Ottawa, a candidate who ran for reelection after unseating a less conservative candidate and the previous election.

I actually all but one got primaried out.

Is that showing any shift more generally in Michigan toward a look for Ford, as is more mainstream or establishment Republicans?

So what do you make of that, Rick?

It well, Ottawa impact is in many respects its own thing that even this group in a very conservative party is further to the right than Republicans mostly.

And Ottawa County is is a very, very conservative county.

It's one of the most conservative counties in Michigan.

It's probably one of the most conservative counties in the country.

And this group came in and they engaged in fights over COVID mask mandates that they tried to, you know, reshape county government.

They tried to take actions on things like school curriculums, which the county commission has no control over.

And it just became a lot of drama that, you know, your typical good governance and Republicans just got tired of.

I mean, this was this this was drawing national attention and not in a good way.

And so when push came to shove that, you know, people who were disenchanted by this and were outorganized in the last election basically came out and said no to this.

And I would say that did include a lot of crossover Democrats in Ottawa County who wanted to send a message about that brand of Republican politics.

Speaking of the ballot and that sort of open primary and crossover voters, there is some concern that thousands of voters may have had their partizan primary votes simply set aside.

They will not count because they chose to cross over in the primary despite being told not to do that to vote.

All the way down the ballot in one or the other party.

Some folks have said maybe we need to go to a system more like Indiana, where you have to name your party and pick one or the other ballot.

Once you get to the polls or even hold a closed primary.

Is there much movement?

Do you see that as a another in what has been a series of election reforms in Michigan?

Or do you see this as unlikely?

You know, of all of the major election process changes that Michigan has undergone since 2018?

That is one of them That has not changed.

You need to ID to vote either in the Republican or either in the Democratic Party.

But it remains, you know, an open primary.

You can choose which one.

And and I don't know.

I haven't necessarily seen any major movement to change that aspect of it.

Maybe Rick can answer if if he has, but I just haven't necessarily seen any push to to change that aspect of the voting process.

Now, it has changed quite a bit.

In Michigan in 2018, voters approved no reason absentee voting, which really led to a massive increase in voters choosing to vote by mail or drop their ballots off the drop box.

And then we talked about it a little early in the show, but early voting is brand new this election cycle in Michigan.

We've got nine days of early in-person voting, which at least initially seems to have alleviated some of the concerns of people who were hesitant to embrace absentee voting.

So a lot more voters are voting prior to Election Day.

Now, you know, whether that's something in terms of eliminating the crossover or, you know, requiring people to designate a party to vote, you know, that that remains to be seen.

But but Michigan is still adjusting to a lot of other changes.

Yeah, it sounds like the people who are casting their ballots at home, those absentee, are more likely to make that mistake on the ballot, which does have both parties together.

Then are those who vote in person and may have an election official be able to help them during the process so that it's something interesting to keep an eye on.

I do want to turn to some other races, any key congressional races in Michigan that you would point to that your looking at or keeping an eye on as we move into the November election?

I think the Grand Rapids case of the Grand Rapids congressional seat where incumbent Hillary Scotland is seeking reelection, is something to keep an eye on that Republicans are going to make a big run for trying to flip that one.

You know, and, you know, conservative centrist districts in southeast Michigan, you know, we could we could see a surprise or two there.

Yeah.

I would also mention the seventh and eighth congressional districts.

One of those is mid-Michigan.

It's Representatives Watkins current seat.

So the race to replace her is expected to be very competitive.

And then over in over in Midland Bay City, Saginaw area, Genesee County, that's going to be a really interesting open seat to where where Dan Kildee is retiring.

And so so that is expected to be a pretty competitive election.

It's a venerable Michigan political name that's going to be disappearing from the scene.

And in that name, it counts in that area.

Now, you both spend quite a bit of time looking at the state legislature.

Republicans are attempting to win back the Michigan House of Representatives.

Is this task made harder by the fact that two incumbent Republican state reps lost their primaries and what happened in those races?

Loren, I don't necessarily think so because there is still a Republican going to the general election and both of those seats of Representative Frisky and representative, these are both had really complicated, controversial primary cycles for different reasons.

Representative Frisky was coming off of a recent arrest in Lansing and there were several controversy, local controversies involving representative business.

So they had pretty, pretty, you know, well-organized challenges mount against them from from contenders who were looking for a change in that district and hoping that voters saw the same.

The board seat was a lot closer, but Representative Frisky, the one who was arrested, was was booted out by by quite a large margin in terms of the general fight for the House majority.

That is going to be a major battleground for Democrats and Republicans.

It was going to be close regardless.

It was very close when Democrats took the majority in 2022.

These lines, these district maps are just very competitive.

And a lot will depend on, as we talked about, what happens at the top of the ticket, general election, turnout motivations.

But some of it will come down to these local districts and and voters will have an outsize influence in these state House seats to determine who holds the gavel.

Now, the trifecta, of course, is something that Democrats are proud of having achieved with the state House, state, Senate and governor's office, all under Democratic control.

What opportunities do Republicans have to change this?

Or is this mostly a battle for the House?

Or how are you looking at this in terms of of state government?

Is it is a battle for the House that's just you know, that's that's just it.

And it could be Republicans take back a slim majority.

Democrats keep a slim majority.

We even have the prospect of divided power, which hasn't happened in a long time.

And, you know, there there are big issues, the top of the ticket matters, but also at the state house level, just getting out makes such a difference.

You know, that that statewide campaigns are media campaigns, that state House races are door to door knocking, showing up at lunches and county fairs and just meeting voters wherever you can.

Now, as you think about Michigan politics and voters that you may have spoken to, how enthusiastic are voters?

I mean, some of our Indiana viewers, of course, are thinking, wow, we really don't see much action here there.

It's assumed that we know who will win in the Electoral College.

There are not many competitive races at the national or state legislature.

The state legislative balance certainly is not hanging in the balance.

And so there is a real concern about extremely low voter turnout out in Michigan.

Do the primaries suggest, even though the turnout is, of course, lower than the general election will be, that there's some level of voter enthusiasm in Michigan?

Do you expect high turnout in this upcoming general election?

Will I mean, to the first part of your question, know that we had some anomalies in the primary, including some bad weather in metro Detroit that forced polling places to close.

Some had to be moved and it just kind of tamp down turnout.

But we already know that right now, interest in election starting at the top of the ticket is white hot in Michigan right now.

And everybody is expecting big, big turnout and a after the presidential race that's taken so many twists and turns.

Yeah.

All right.

Go ahead.

It sounds like the changes in Michigan law is making voting there more options for voting, more time, longer timeline for that voting process might further drive that high turnout.

Yeah, I think that's true, especially no recent absentee.

We've seen just so many people participate.

Early voting.

I think it's just getting off the ground.

So it hasn't been quite as popular as no recent absentee.

But it is another option for people, you know, and those those kind of things get around, you know, the bad weather or late developments in the election cycle.

So it's one of those things that a lot of people are hoping voters take advantage of.

But in terms of the enthusiasm, I'll just add that it has changed exponentially, especially among Democrats since the presidential shakeup happened after the presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

We saw among Democrats just, you know, consternation, desperation in some cases, just like their like a lot of concern that it wasn't even possible to win not only Michigan, but the presidency generally.

And I think I think a lot of Democrats with Vice President Harris taking the reins now see a modicum of hope.

Whether that lasts to the November cycle, we'll see.

But it's definitely been a shift in the last couple of weeks.

Well, there will be a lot of eyes on Michigan.

Hopefully, we can have you back closer to the general election to get an update, because that's all the time we have for this week's politically Speaking.

I want to thank our guests, Michigan Public Radio Network correspondent Rick PLUTA and Bridge Michigan reporter Lauren Gibbons for joining us today.

I'm Elizabeth Penny and reminding you that it takes all of us to make democracy work.

This WNIT Local production has been made possible in part by viewers like you.

Thank you.