- [Announcer] On this edition of "Great Lakes Now," We need more research into Great Lake's winters, but it isn't easy.

- Winter is a time of year when it's challenging to get out on the water, and we don't have this much information about the ecosystem.

- [Announcer] Ice fishers watch as winter shrinks.

- It's a shame that we have less and less ice, and I'm afraid it's gonna continue to happen.

- [Announcer] And, skating on wild ice.

- [Brian] Now I get super excited.

All right, we gotta go here, we gotta go here.

(bright music) - [Announcer] This program is brought to you by: The Fred A. and Barbara M. Erb Family Foundation.

The Charles Stewart Mott Foundation.

- [Announcer] The Consumers Energy Foundation is committed to serving Michigan, from preserving our state's natural resources and sustaining our future to continuing business growth, academic achievement, and community involvement.

Learn more at consumersenergy.com/foundation.

- [Announcer] The Richard C. Devereaux Foundation for Energy and Environmental Programs at DPTV.

The Polk Family Fund.

Eve and Jerry Jung.

The Americana Foundation.

The Brookby Foundation.

Founders Brewing Company, and viewers like you, thank you.

- Hi, I'm Ward Detwiler, Welcome back to "Great Lakes Now."

When you think about climate change, you might picture summer heat waves, or wildfires, or hurricanes, but in our region, some concerning effects of climate change are being seen during winter.

And that has scientists focusing on ice cover like never before.

(calm music) - [Narrator] The Great Lakes were born of ice.

Carved by an ice sheet a mile thick, they filled with water when the climate warmed, and the ice retreated, around 20,000 years ago.

The current shape of the lakes emerged around 3,000 years ago and ice has been part of the yearly cycle of the lakes ever since.

Our best data on Great Lakes ice cover only goes back to 1973, not quite 50 years.

Today, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tracks the formation of Great Lakes ice with a variety of tools, including the Canadian Space Agency's RADARSAT constellation of earth-observing satellites.

Andrea Vander Woude is a physical research scientist at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

(engine rumbling) - I provide synthetic aperture radar imagery, which is imagery that looks at different types of ice on the Great Lakes, and it's called an active sensor and it's up in space, pointing down at the Great Lakes, measuring the surface roughness of the ice on the Great Lakes.

- [Narrator] Why is the satellite measuring surface roughness?

- Surface roughness can tell us the different types of ice on the Great Lakes.

We provide this really cool map of ice type classification and it looks at five different types of ice on the Great Lakes.

- [Narrator] The five types classify ice according to thickness, and to the threat each type poses to boats on the lakes, especially commercial ships.

- And some of the coolest types of ice are pancake ice, which many people have seen on the Great Lakes recently.

That looks just like how you would think it would look, like a big pancake.

But one of the most important types of ice we look at is called brash ice, it's the thickest type of ice that we see on the Great Lakes.

- [Narrator] 50 years is nothing in the lifetime of the Great Lakes, but five decades of ice cover observations do reveal a clear trend.

(bright music) Ayumi Fujisaki Manome is an assistant research scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research.

She studies, models, and forecasts ice cover and water movement in the Great Lakes.

- This figure shows time series of Great Lakes annual maximum ice coverage from 1973 to 2021, which is last winter.

The red line here is the long-term average, which is about 53%.

- [Narrator] Not only is maximum ice cover down, but the ice that does form, doesn't last as long.

In some places, the lakes experience 46 fewer frozen days than they did 50 years ago.

- In terms of Great Lakes ice cover, we do see decline, and reduced ice cover in recent decades.

And this, you know, of course, this is primarily because of global warming.

- [Andrea] 2002 was the record lowest ice cover.

This year, it's projected to have 12.3% ice coverage over all of the Great Lakes.

There is a historic average, usually we expect at least 50% ice cover on the Great Lakes, and so we're well below that historic average.

(mysterious music) - [Narrator] The problem is, we don't understand what this decline means for the Great Lakes, because most of our research has been conducted during warmer weather.

- There's so much unknown in terms of the implications of loss of ice cover for many areas, including ecology, fishery, weather, you know, physical processes.

We don't know much about it, mostly because it's so hard to make observations in ice-covered or wintertime lake.

- [Andrea] It's difficult to get out there.

It's cold.

the conditions aren't perfect for field operations, so we're devising new plans and new experimental designs in order to get out on the lakes in the winter.

Unfortunately, the Great Lakes and wintertime have been classically understudied.

There have been some studies of wintertime limnology, but recent efforts are looking at pulling together a consortium of universities and federal agencies to really describe what happens in the winter.

(calm music) - [Narrator] Now, the race is on to understand the role of winter in the life of the Great Lakes, even as global climate change alters that role.

Steve Ruberg leads the Observing Systems and Advanced Technology Group at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

Part of his job is developing ways to gather important data, even in wintery conditions.

- Winter is absolutely a time of year when it's challenging to get out on the water, and we don't have as much information and have as much data about the ecosystem.

- [Narrator] Less ice could mean greater lake effect precipitation, and without ice to act as a protective barrier, shorelines could see greater erosion from winter waves.

But many of our most pressing questions aren't about the physics of the lakes, they're about their biology.

- Yes, we absolutely should be concerned about the trends.

There are certain fish species that reproduce under the ice.

They need that ice cover to sort of protect their egg laying activities and things like that.

What's happening with the phytoplankton?

What's happening with the zooplankton?

What is happening with invasive species like quagga mussels and things like that?

So we just really have a dearth of information about all of those ecosystem activities that are happening out there.

And we'd like to fill those gaps.

(wind howling) - [Narrator] But winter conditions on the Great Lakes make things challenging or even impossible, even for large commercial ships.

Research vessels, even NOAA's 80-foot Laurentian, shown here tied up in Muskegon, Michigan, aren't up to the task.

- Right now, our research vessel that that's in the water.

But we really can't get out of the channel because the channel is filled with ice and it would do damage to the boat to get out.

No one has a has an ice-hardened hull that they can actually get out there and break ice and continue to do research.

- [Narrator] Outside of winter, a range of different instruments and systems provide a wealth of data about the lakes.

- These buoys are part of what we call our real time coastal observation network.

Some of that data we use to understand what's happening with the lifecycle of invasive mussels, what's happening in that bottom area.

We're also getting observations of waves, currents and things like that that are useful for helping us understand what's happening with the ecosystem.

- [Narrator] But, as useful as these buoys are in spring, summer, and fall, they just not made for winter.

- [Steve] So they're limited, can't be out there all winter long, because even if they're not surrounded by ice, waves and that sort of thing will build ice up on them, and then they just would tip over and get destroyed.

(calm music) - [Narrator] Of course, scientific research can be done in hostile and dangerous environments.

NASA's autonomous rovers have successfully landed on Mars and sent back images and data from millions of miles away.

Understanding the Great Lakes during winter may require a similar approach.

- What we would like to do is deploy autonomous systems that can measure ice thickness because a sensor that's deployed in one location just gives you observations about that one location, but an autonomous vehicle can be sent out on a mission and map a whole area of ice cover, for instance maybe the Straits of Mackinaw or something like that.

- [Narrator] Soon, researchers hope to begin work with an underwater autonomous vehicle that can maneuver below lake ice, gather data throughout its travels, and return to a base station to upload data and recharge.

- [Steve] These autonomous systems can kind of take the risk out of it.

They can go out there and you don't have to worry about loss of human life, and they can go out there and collect some of those important ecosystem parameters, even when it's stormy or in the winter under ice and that sort of thing.

- [Narrator] It could be a big step toward filling the gaps in our knowledge of the Great Lakes, and a crucial development in forecasting, and adapting to, the changes affecting the Great Lakes and our region.

- The trend of declining ice really concerns me.

Of course, that's one of the many, many changes we are seeing all over the world, I would say.

And there are many extreme events happening, drought and hurricanes, tornadoes.

Who knows, you know, if we are seeing continuous change in Great Lakes ice cover, that might trigger a kind of hazardous weather over the region which we don't have a very good projection for now.

So that does concern me a lot.

- After this story was shot, cold weather boosted ice cover forecasts back into the typical range, but still below the historical average.

For more the scientific push to know winter better, visit GreatLakesNow.org.

The Great Lakes region is full of natural beauty all year round, but photographer Amy Sacka's most recent project, "Last Ice," is focused on the tradition of ice fishing.

Sacka and three longtime ice fishers reflect on what declining ice cover means for them.

(calm music) - [Narrator] Amy Sacka is an accomplished photojournalist and documentary photographer whose work has been featured in National Geographic along with numerous museums and exhibitions.

A lifetime of ice fishing with her father drove her to start documenting what he was experiencing out on the ice.

- I started to go out with him, and I was finding these beautiful Michigan landscapes and this incredible activity out on the ice that really kind of blew me away and I started going out nearly daily in the winter to photograph all the things that we, as Michiganders, love.

- [Narrator] Today, Amy and her dad Tim Sacka are fishing on a pond near Lake Saint Clair.

(calm music) - I started ice fishing right after high school, so over 50 years ago, and I fished with my buddy, something to do, and it got me hooked on ice fishing, that's for sure.

- [Narrator] Amy has photographed ice fishers all over the Great Lakes, and many voice a single concern.

- What I would hear repeatedly is that we can't get out on the ice as much anymore.

The ice season is starting later and ending earlier.

- [Narrator] Her father Tim agrees.

- There's less ice than there used to be.

Back 50 years ago, we used to bring our cars on the ice and drive them right on the ice and with no problem.

It's slowly, slowly been less ice every year.

I would always be on the ice a week before Christmas.

The last three years, I haven't been able to get on the ice until mid-January at the earliest.

It's a shame that we have less and less ice, and I'm afraid it's gonna continue to happen.

- [Narrator] And Tim isn't the only one who's noticing the shrinking season for ice fishing in recent years.

Mark Martin has been teaching ice fishing for the last 32 years.

- I mean, when I was really young, I can remember, you know, two or three feet was the normal.

In fishing, I've seen the good, bad and ugly.

So I feel I've paid my dues to be a good teacher for the rest of everybody.

I made the mistakes and that's what you gotta do.

- [Narrator] Ice is essential to Mark's business.

On this day in December of 2021, he and his staff were building shanties for a multi-day ice fishing school scheduled for early January, but there was no guarantee the ice would cooperate.

- We'll always get some ice, but how long is it gonna take all the time?

I just knock on wood and cross my fingers that I'll have the ice when I plan on it to teach these people.

- [Narrator] As it turns out, by the time the class begins on Houghton Lake in northern Michigan, frigid temperatures have arrived, removing all concerns about ice.

Houghton Lake is large, but shallow, meaning it will reliably freeze, even without arctic temperatures.

- First of all, probably, you know, we look at the weather, and the weather's been cold for weeks, you know.

we know that it's been freezing.

- [Narrator] Even in Thunder Bay, Ontario, on the north shore of Lake Superior, Benny Solomon is noticing the changing ice coverage during the winter months.

- I noticed with the ice changing it, sometimes it takes a little bit longer, usually frozen by January.

But now it's sometimes turned into February.

Just little wee bit ice.

Global warming may be affecting everything or I'm not quite sure.

- [Narrator] Benny is an Anishinaabe fisherman from Fort William First Nation.

He's been fishing for around 40 years and uses nets to catch fish in the bay.

- Sometimes we catch the odd pickerel, but tomorrow I'm hoping to catch a rainbow, couple of rainbow, maybe a whitefish.

Whitefish are good smoked right now.

- [Narrator] Benny says the ice still comes to this part of the bay in the winter, but it's become harder to predict.

- Well last weekend I set some nets with the granddaughters.

We set them on Saturday.

By Sunday, all the ice was gone.

It blew all out, so it was kind of, we had to pull the net out with the grandkids 'cause this was moving up and down.

- [Narrator] Unlike the rods, shanties, and fish finders used by the students in Mark Martin's school, Benny has an entirely different method that requires him to drill two holes through the ice and then run a line between them under the water.

This style of ice fishing with a net that's hundreds of feet long moves at a different pace than the other style, involving about an hour's worth of work at a time, and checking the nets every day or two to ensure the catch is fresh.

Benny isn't just fishing for himself when he comes out here.

He shares what he catches with his community, and also teaches others this skill.

In a way he's carrying on an important tradition that was passed down to him.

Back at lake st clair, Amy Sacka and her dad are getting ready to wrap up their time on the ice.

And although these two are nearly 800 miles south of Benny Solomon, and a ways from Mark Martin's fishing school, the love for this Great Lakes winter tradition unites them all.

Amy's passion for preserving the stories of Great Lakes ice fishing has culminated with two stories for National Geographic and a new exhibition called "Last Ice," on display at the Ford House, just a few miles down the road from where they're fishing today.

- And why that means a lot to me is that my dad has fished at the Ford House his entire life, and there's ice fishermen that will be fishing on the cove right there as you walk through the grounds and see the pictures in the environment.

So we're really thrilled to see that work in that space.

- I'm so proud of her, it's just unbelievable.

I can't believe she's in National Geographic and all their articles.

I could not believe and be more proud of my daughter.

- Yeah, this is really been an awesome experience.

I mean, to be able to go out on the ice with him and kind of merge our interests in a way.

And I think we all kind of look for ways to honor our parents and thank our parents, and I hope this is one way that I could do that for you.

- [Narrator] And yet it's bittersweet.

It's already harder to ice fish than it was a generation ago.

The future of this tradition is uncertain.

- I initially went out to really look at just the beauty of the landscapes, but people were telling me that they're not able to get out on the ice as much anymore.

They're going out later and they're finishing earlier.

And if you look at the research, it all points to the fact that ice is really declining pretty quickly.

- For more on ice fishing, visit GreatLakesNow.org.

Of course, fishing isn't the only way to enjoy a frozen lake.

We went to Milwaukee, Wisconsin to learn about another.

(rhythmic music) - [Narrator] As a competitive speed skater, Brian Hansen has spent most of his life on the sharpened edges of blades.

- I've competed in three Olympics.

I've been on many World Cup teams and really I've traveled all over the world for long track speed skating competitively.

- [Narrator] A few years ago he stopped competing, but he didn't hang up his skates.

He traded the confines of an indoor oval track for the freedom of a new outdoor sport called wild ice speed skating.

- Wild ice speed skating is done now on natural surfaces, like lakes and rivers and ponds and to some it's also known as Nordic skating.

But that's something that I've been really excited about recently.

(rhythmic music) I mean It's just awesome to go straight for a while and just explore.

I think that's what wild ice skating is about, is just exploring just as it is about, you know, getting a workout in and being outside and just like the actual activity of skating itself.

But just going wherever you want and skating around, that's like been really fun.

- [Narrator] Brian grew up in Illinois and now lives in Milwaukee.

Back in 2010 when he was training for the Olympics, he was practicing more than 25 hours a week.

He says wild ice skating lets him enjoy the sport he loves without all the pressure of competition.

- Like a lot of growing up and being in the competitive world of speed skating has been about, you know, lap times and the performance of it and then here it's something you can just go and do.

You don't have to you have like the best day of your life, like it's already just like a great day because you're out doing it.

- [Narrator] Wild ice skating has gained a following in the Northeast and out West, but it's still relatively new in the Great Lakes Region, where skaters need to find protected areas for good ice.

- You know, it's just so hard because Lake Michigan gets so wavy and the ice is always getting broken up.

So, you know, it's really gotta be the right spot.

But then I realized there's several spots that might work, one being harbors or two being bays, like really sheltered bays.

Or three actually being a really flat day where it's been flat for awhile and in a strong freeze that could also work.

- [Narrator] Brian leads an informal group on social media that shares information on conditions in the Milwaukee area.

Brian says the group is always concerned about safety and the thickness of the ice.

- Four inches is considered safe.

We do go out sometimes on thinner ice.

If we do that then we we have a lot of backup plans and precautions that we take.

If I'm unsure of the ice conditions I'll wear a wetsuit.

We bring a surfboard, I have throw ropes or rope we can throw to someone that the other person can help kind of bring them out of the ice.

And then we use like ice awls or also known as like ice picks that are things that you carry with you while you're skating so that you can pull yourself out of the ice.

Otherwise what happens is you're kind of grabbing at the ice and it's really slippery and it's hard to get out.

- [Narrator] Safety measures are especially important in challenging conditions.

A few years ago, Brian and a friend used paddleboards to reach a group of floating ice islands in Lake Michigan and do some really wild ice skating.

- Yeah, it was pretty crazy 'cause like no one knows that these ice chunks are out there, but I think what happened is like these really flat surfaces were frozen further north and then it broke off and then like you end up with these gigantic ice islands out there in Lake Michigan.

- [Narrator] Brian still skates on an indoor track, but now he's sharing his experience with the next generation of competitive speed skaters.

He coaches for the North Brook Speed Skating Club at the Pettit National Ice Center, the rink in Milwaukee where he trained as a kid.

- [Brian] Coaching is really rewarding 'cause like, you know, I really want to be a proponent of the sport and get these kids involved and move them in the right direction.

- [Narrator] Brian says the coaching, the competition, and the wild ice skating are all part of the sport he loves, but he admits he's discovered a whole new appreciation for frigid temperatures.

- I used to be kind of unexcited when it was suddenly five degrees outside.

But now I get super excited 'cause like, you know, all these spots are suddenly freezing over and I'm like hitting up all my friends and I'm like, all right, we gotta go here, we gotta go here.

And there's not enough time in the week to get it all in, you know?

(laughs) Oh yeah, dude, this is cool.

Some of my mission is and what I hope to do with this sport is kind of bring awareness that you can have fun outside in skating in the coldest parts of the winter.

And there's also a safe way to do it.

So I think it's important that people realize, one, like you do have to take precautions, like it can be dangerous, but it can also be really fun and an exciting way to enjoy winter.

(upbeat music) - For more on these stories, and the Great Lakes in general, visit GreatLakesNow.org.

And did you know that Great Lakes Now creates educational materials from our episodes that you can use at home or in your classroom?

Our videos, like what you just saw in this program, are being turned into learning activities for grade school and middle school students.

Visit GreatLakesNow.org/education to find them.

When you get there, why not follow us on social media or subscribe to our newsletter to get updates about our work.

See you out on the lakes!

(bright music) - [Announcer] This program is brought to you by: The Fred A. and Barbara M. Erb Family Foundation.

The Charles Stewart Mott Foundation.

- [Announcer] The Consumers Energy Foundation is committed to serving Michigan, from preserving our state's natural resources and sustaining our future to continuing business growth, academic achievement, and community involvement.

Learn more at consumersenergy.com/foundation.

- [Announcer] The Richard C. Devereaux Foundation for Energy and Environmental Programs at DPTV.

The Polk Family Fund.

Eve and Jerry Jung.

The Americana Foundation.

The Brookby Foundation.

Founders Brewing Company, and viewers like you, thank you.

(calm music)