(jaunty music) - Hello, everyone.

And welcome to "Sunup."

I'm Lyndall Stout.

We join you today from the Cimarron Valley research station in Perkins, where we're talking with Becky Carroll, our extension pecan specialist, about this year's pecan crop.

Becky, just kind of start with an overview of how things are looking at this stage.

- Well, if you look at the trees here on the research station, it looks pretty good.

We've got a really a full crop, too much crop, in fact, that we're doing some crop load management.

But across the state, it's a little spotty.

Some of our native growers are reporting that they have a good crop, and others have sparse crop to little to nothing.

- Obviously we talk about drought every week on "Sunup," and how it's impacted livestock, and crops, and pretty much everything we do.

Let's talk about how the drought that's so widespread is impacted pecans.

- Right, it's really causing a lot of issues for our pecan growers, especially our native growers who don't have the ability to irrigate their orchards.

And during the summer months, July and early August, when those nuts are sizing, we like to get about two inches of rain or irrigation a week.

And so some places haven't had any rainfall since the beginning of June.

So they may be very small this year.

Now that may reduce our overall production for the state, just due to the size of the nuts, because they won't weigh as much.

And where we may have had maybe 13 million, it may be 11 million pounds across the state.

It's kind of hard to tell right now.

- So in the next phase of growth we need water then too, obviously.

So, if we get what we need, what happens?

And if we don't get the rain we need, what can happen?

- So right now, if the pecans are small during the sizing stage, when they, the shells start to harden, then we want to have enough water to fill those nuts properly, get nice, good kernel development.

And that takes about two inches a week as well.

So if we have small nuts and a lot of water at that time then they can go ahead and fill okay.

If we have large pecans, without that filling rain or water, then we can have less quality.

- Are you seeing any insect pressure yet this year?

- We are kind of right on the line when we're gonna start seeing our weevil emerge from the ground.

If we don't have rainfall, we may not have a weevil problem this year because they're in the ground.

They usually come out of the soil when we get a big rainfall.

If we don't have those rains, we may not have weevil problems.

But keeping an eye on the stage of the nut development, when they go from the water, to the gel, to the dough stage.

That's important because that's when the weevil can start laying eggs in those nuts.

- For this orchard in particular, we were out here in the winter of 2020, and the devastating ice storm, here and lots of other places too.

Talk about what you've observed and how these trees have have rebounded in two years time.

- We're really pleased with how they have recovered.

And some of our trees lost maybe 50 to 75% of the canopy.

We went ahead and backed off our nitrogen applications because we didn't want them to grow really long, whippy wood that would be weak.

So we reduced our nitrogen applications on those severely damaged trees.

And then we increased our zinc applications, our foliar zinc, and that really makes good leaf development, good leaf growth.

And that's what feeds that tree.

- We're just kind of touching on a few things today, but you have lots of resources available anytime online and with folks contacting you.

- Yes, and we have webpage, we have a Facebook page.

And we also have a field day coming up, October 13th.

And it will be in the Catoosa area.

- Great Becky, we'll look for the information on the field day.

Always great to see you out there.

And for a link to more of the resources that Becky mentioned, go to sunup.okstate.edu.

(jaunty music) - Wes Lee, here with your weekly Mesonet weather report.

Last week's cool front brought spotty showers and daily high temperatures down close to what is normal for this time of year, as you can see on this chart.

Plotted are the July maximum high temperatures through Tuesday in black.

All but a couple of days were well above the 15 year average indicated by the blue line.

According to this blue line, normal high temperatures should drop to 90 degrees on September the third, and below 80 degrees a month after that.

The main driving factor in the dropping of normal temperatures is the angle of the sun and the length of daylight hours.

This picture is from a stationary camera at our Lahoma Mesonet site.

You can see how much further south the sun sets each month of the year.

The difference between now and mid September is substantial.

- The blue arrows would be the sun's location at the Summer and Winter Equinox.

On Saturday, we will have 13 hours and 33 minutes of daylight.

Two weeks later, it drops by almost 30 minutes of heating time.

So hold on for a while longer, heat relief is on the way.

As for forecast, if this map for two weeks from now holds true, it shows the heat dome breaking down and more normal-like temperatures for the state.

Now here's Gary with a focus on the rainfall.

- Thanks, Wes, and good morning everyone.

Well, we did get some rain this week, but unfortunately it was very hit-and-miss.

We have hit the 60 day point of this flash drought, started on June 11th.

Let's get straight to that drought monitor map and see where we're at.

We say in Oklahoma, "It ain't pretty," right?

So basically, the southern half of the state, now covered in D3 extreme drought.

We also have D3 extending up into parts of Northeast Oklahoma, Oklahoma Panhandle.

And unfortunately, now we have once again, D4 exceptional drought down in the far southwest corner that's creeping up from Texas.

The rest of the state, basically moderate to severe drought.

We do have one area in far western Oklahoma.

That's still abnormally dry, but without further rainfall for that area, they will be going right back into drought.

So let's hope we get some rainfall soon.

The dire picture that we see on this drought monitor map, unfortunately, it's gonna stick around for probably another week at least.

Just showing you a quick view of that rainfall we had this week that did provide some relief for the very select few, some amounts from one to two, even more than three inches over the week, close to four inches in some areas, but those are very tiny for the most part.

We went without rain, at least significant rain, for much of the state.

Now we take a look at that 60 day point, going back to June 11th forward with all that heat, all that lack of moisture for most of the state.

You can see pretty well those blues, the light greens, the darker greens, those are areas that are without significant rainfall over that 60 day period to go along with all of that heat.

When we look at the departure from normal for the last 60 days, over that period, it was very ugly map once again, with a rainfall deficits of four to five, to six, even greater than seven inches across much of the state.

Those that did have a surplus are about an inch to two inches above normal, but those again, are very localized areas.

Most of the state, at least two inches below normal.

And believe or not, we do expect rainfall during the summer to keep up with the heat and the evaporation and the transpiration.

And we can see on this departure from normal, Percent of Normal map, we do see areas less than 25% of normal across a wide range of the state.

even Hollis, Centrahoma, other places, 1% are normal over 60 days.

That's a horrible situation during the summer in Oklahoma.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report.

- Talking cattle management now and planning ahead for the upcoming winter.

Even though it's still very hot outside, experts say now's the time to get your plan in place.

Here's SUNUP's Kurtis Hair and our Extension Beef Cattle Specialist, Dr. Paul Beck.

- It's been a summer of challenges for Oklahoma cattle producers.

And Paul, we're almost to fall.

And when we get to that time, it's really important for producers, when dealing with a summer like this, to really put some management strategies in for their production.

- Yeah, so it appears like we're in a dry cycle, and it's gonna be a long-term dry cycle.

And it probably started with our droughts back 10 years ago.

And if you look at the previous dry cycles, these can last for a really long time, back in the thirties and in the fifties.

I think it really is important that we have a long-term drought management plan.

So right now I think it's really important if we have less hay than what we normally have, we need to inventory what we have.

And if our pastures are getting short, we really need to figure out, what cows we have, how much standing forage we have, and make a plan of how we're going to get through that because if we have less hay than normal, and we're gonna have to start feeding hay earlier, we've got to start coming up with a plan on what to do.

- So what's the first big step into making that plan?

What is the first thing that producers need to think about?

- Well, many of us, and I recommend this to a lot of our producers, keep a stocker herd to fill out the stocking rate of ranch so that they have the flexibility of getting rid of those stockers and then using the extra acres for cows.

So now it would be a good time, even if you're not ready to market those stocker calves, get 'em shipped off from your ranch.

The other thing would be look at early, weaning your calves.

I know that's a big step for spring calving cow herd.

We're normally gonna try to wean in October.

The milk production on a cow really increase their intake, those baby calves, they're eating a lot of grass too, even for their size.

And you might consider growing them yourself.

It's easier to feed the calf directly, in these types of situations, than to supplement a really short pasture with a cow that's producing milk.

Another thing would be, get rid of any non-productive animals.

Then, any older cows, infirm cows, as Dr. Johnson has talked about previously, get rid of those cows that are less productive and don't really fit in your plan as far as disposition or... - Or just production.

- The grazing opportunities and the hay opportunities really haven't been there this summer.

So what are some things that they need to consider going into winter when it comes to hay and forage?

- Right now, if your pastures are getting short and looks like you're gonna have to start feeding hay, go ahead and build some cross fences or shut some gates in some existing cross fences.

Create a sacrifice pasture to feed that hay, and then your other pastures will have a chance to recover, and that will have benefits in the long term for your operation, and those pastures, they may actually get some good regrowth this fall to where you can use it for winter grazing, actually.

They will grow a lot more than what you think if they don't have that grazing pressure on those plants.

Another thing, if we got lucky and got some of these showers that had come through, we could plant some feed.

Whether it's sorghum or a Sudan, hybrids, we've had producers plant corn for grazing that works really well.

Those are highly productive, I know we're used to planting those in June and getting that production through the summer, but even through the fall with some rain, those types of warm season annuals will be very productive and will provide a grazing resource going into the fall and early winter.

- You know, real quickly before we let you go, probably need to talk about cattle on wheat.

With the conditions likely to still stay dry like they were last fall when it came to a lot of producers who use that dual-purpose system, what are some plans that need to be put in place for producers who are planning to put their cattle out on wheat?

- You know, be prepared to plant, and when you get to your target planting window, go ahead and get it planted and not wait for the rain.

It's better, in my mind, to have the seed in the ground and have it emerge with the rain.

That'll get you that much ahead of schedule than waiting for the rain and then planting.

- Alrighty, thanks Paul.

Paul Beck, extension beef cattle specialist here at Oklahoma State University.

And if you like some information that he talked about, go to our website, SunUp.OKState.edu.

(upbeat music) - Dr. Kim Anderson joins us now, our crop marketing specialist.

Kim, there have been some dramatic changes and shifts in wheat prices as we know.

How did the current prices get to this level?

- Well, let's start with what caused the price increase.

You go back to January of 2020.

We had wheat prices down in the $4 range.

We came through here recently, we had 'em up to $13.30.

So let's talk about that price increase.

I think the move from around $4 to $8 was because of COVID.

And I think it was a demand driven move.

You can look at production in 2019 with a record 28 billion bushels, use was 27.4 billion.

So we built stocks that year, but when you got to '20, you had a 1.3 billion bushel increase in demand.

And wheat production only increased by 500 million bushels.

So you had a shortage and we reduced stocks.

So every year for the last three years, we've had, except we had a slight decline in production this year, but we've had record use.

And I think that use was because of hoarding food stocks.

Now the last move from 8 to 13 I think is the war.

with the Russia, Ukraine, shutting off the black sea, you took 30% of the wheat off the export market, and that's gonna have an impact.

And then there's inflation.

Outside money moves into commodities when there a fear of inflation, and that's what we saw happen on that move up.

- Since mid-May, we've seen a $5 decline.

What is behind that particular adjustment?

- Well, that's reverse of what we saw with prices going up.

And I think first we can go to COVID, and you know the COVID impact is disappearing, especially in the transportation, and outside money has came out of the markets.

And when they came into the markets, they bought the commodities.

When they came out, they sold them.

You sell, big mass drives prices lower.

- So what do you think prices will do from here?

- Well, that's anybody's guess.

You look at Northern Oklahoma.

We're about $8.25 slightly lower than that, a dime or two if you're looking at '23 prices.

Southern Oklahoma, 7.75.

I think you've gotta look at, when you're thinking about what prices are gonna do, look at Russia.

We've had, for Russia's exports on wheat and other commodities are about where they were before the war started.

Ukraine started shipping commodities out a couple weeks ago.

I think a good thing to look at is the stocks to use ratio, five year average for the world is 39%, this year, 34%.

So you got tighter stocks.

You look at US total, 50% for all wheat down to 33%.

Hardware winner, 61% down to 39%.

We can't build those stocks back up until we get into the '23 harvest.

So I think these prices will hold for a while.

- And I'm lookin' for a range of maybe 7.00 to $10.00.

- And that's still not too bad.

Let's talk about, of course, last but not least, corn, soybeans, and cotton.

- [Kim] Well, we've seen about the same thing with corn.

Ukraine, they're a relatively large exporter of corn.

Their shipments, their first shipments out, are corn, and so they're starting to move it on the market.

And so, we've seen corn prices drop from 7.00 down to 5.50, come up to about to the 6.00 range.

Soybeans, I think we're lookin' at soybean supply, and I believe that's sets a pretty good range for somewhere around 12.00 and $15.00.

- Lots of good information and analysis this week.

Kim, thanks a lot.

We'll see you next time.

(country-style guitar music) - Good morning, Oklahoma, welcome to Cow-Calf Corner.

Well, as we continue to deal with issues that are drought and heat related right now, really not just in Oklahoma, but on a nationwide basis, I've had questions in recent weeks about the possibility of retained ownership from some cow-calf operations, that have historically sold weaned calves or maybe used cool season grass and turned 'em into yearlings.

So this week, we address five considerations, or kinda five categories, if you will, to consider, if you're thinkin' about retained ownership.

First thing, if we're lookin' at retained ownership, it's based on low cow inventories, fewer amounts of calves and fed cattle bein' marketed in the future.

We're lookin' at backing up our marketing endpoint to a time when we anticipate that prices will be better, so what should we consider, if we look at doin' this?

First, realize that if we're gonna retain ownership and actually be selling fed cattle, in the modern beef industry, the vast majority of fed cattle are sold on a carcass value basis.

That's not to say that this doesn't vary a little bit by region, and you can't still potentially sell some live, but the majority of cattle are priced on a carcass value basis.

Now, what does that mean?

Basically, we take our finished cattle, they're harvested, a USDA grader is gonna come in and assign quality grades and yield grades, and optimum combinations of quality and yield grades, say something that is better than a low choice yield grade three, are gonna be up for premiums or better than average market prices, and poorer combinations are gonna be in for discounts and penalties.

We're gonna sell those on a price per pound of carcass.

There's also the potential, if we have carcasses that are too heavy or too light, we take some discounts there.

Second thing we ought to consider is the opportunity costs on that money.

If we've historically sold weaned calves, and we hang onto those rascals longer, we are lookin' at volatility in markets.

We're lookin' at potential death loss that we haven't dealt with at earlier marketing endpoints, and so there's a new set of considerations there to think about, as we look long term and finishing out those cattle.

Next thing I would consider is do you have any data that tells you how your cattle have done after you've sold 'em in the past or particularly, how your calves have done?

If you've historically sold weaned calves or yearlings, have you gotten any feedback on what the death loss or the cost of gain or the pull rate for health issues or potentially, those quality grades, yield grades, carcass weights, finish weights, on those calves?

Have you got any data that tells you some stuff, as far as what you can anticipate there?

Next thing I would consider, and another factor in here economically, the same drought that's impacting us and causing us to liquidate cows is impacting the grain growing parts of the United States.

Feed grains are historically high.

The cost of gain associated with finishing out cattle in the future is gonna be historically high as well.

It's gonna be a lot more than what we've typically had in those cattle, say we were turning weaned calves into yearlings.

And if we fed some cattle out years ago, I'd anticipate that we're lookin' at a lot higher cost to gains on finished cattle than what we were in years past.

Another thing to consider is, where have we typically put selection pressure whenever we were buying bulls, and if you have for the fast past five, 10 years, put some selection pressure on post-weaning growth, carcass traits, things like marbling, rib-eye size, fat thickness, and you've been retaining daughters out of those bulls, and they are now in production and raising calves sired by more bulls that have had that kinda selection pressure put on 'em, then retained ownership through finishing is potentially a means to capture additional value outta some of that investment in genetics that you've made.

If you've been putting selection pressure in other places, we need to take that into account.

Well, this is Part One of a series on considerations for retained ownership.

Next week, or in weeks to come, we're gonna get more into grids and how they work and talk specifically about quality grades and yield grades and what they're based on.

But thanks for joining us this week on Cow-Calf Corner.

- Finally today, the project between the USDA, the OSU Water Resources Center, and Extension, to address the Cattle Fever Tick, a challenge for producers for more than a century.

Here's "SUNUP's" Seth Fish.

- [Narrator] Oklahoma cattlemen are all too familiar with these tiny arachnids.

However, these USDA and OSU researchers are studying ticks that haven't been seen in Oklahoma for a very long time.

Tim Propst is a researcher with the USDA and the Oklahoma Water Resource Center.

- The cattle fever tick eradication program actually started in 1906.

And there are two species of tick, the Southern cattle tick and the cattle fever tick, that carry a protozoan that's actually a blood parasite, and that causes anemia and a bunch of other complications, and actually in naive animals that have never been exposed before, there's a 70 to 90 percent mortality rate.

So it's actually, some literature shows, that it's like the most financially significant ectoparasite to cattle in the whole world.

- [Narrator] In the 1920s and '30s, the U.S. implemented cattle dipping programs to combat the bacteria-carrying ticks.

The project eradicated virtually all of the problematic ticks from the Southern United States, but colonies along the U.S., Mexico border and in Puerto Rico are causing problems to this day.

- Because of these efforts, they were able to eradicate it from the Southern U.S., but because the animals, the ticks themselves, are still existence in those Southern areas outside of the U.S., strays can come across and they carry the animals with them.

One female will lay up to 4,000 eggs.

It's really hard to con control that.

That's why, even after a hundred years or more, that we still have the program going on.

- [Narrator] The USDA Ag Research Service and the Oklahoma Water Resource Center, with the help of OSU are seeking to streamline the process of tracking and treating animals affected by the cattle tick.

And they're doing it with RFID chips and readers, technology that is probably in your wallet right now.

- [Kade] So what we've developed is a survey that works with off-the-shelf devices that currently scan the RFID tag to get their number and gets their weights from the squeeze shoot themselves.

- [Narrator] Soon, the same technology used in your credit cards will be used by researchers in Texas and Puerto Rico to monitor tick activity in buffer zones.

- So we've tied those devices together, allowing the survey to be manually entered and fill out all the metadata.

And it can be stored in the cloud and viewed by researchers almost instantaneously after it's submitted.

The ARS researchers, their old method was to count the ticks by hand, which is always gonna be by hand, and they have to write the number of ticks on the butt of the animal.

Then the animal goes through the squeeze and they weigh it manually, and they have to relook at a chart that has the weight of the animal and the approximate number of ticks that are on the animal.

And that'll give them a dosage for that animal.

So that is a very messy way to do it.

'Cause you have to worry about handwriting, incorrect accuracies, it getting rubbed off before they get there.

So what this does is reduce the number of data inputs and data touches that the user has to do.

And it overall increases the efficiency and accuracy of the test.

- [Narrator] The cattle fever tick eradication program is yet another example of the continued relationship between the USDA and OSU, and their shared mission to improve the security of the agricultural industry.

- It's just a matter of finding all the pieces that are necessary to make a project successful and produce something that's useful for folks out in the state.

And sometimes we'll have those pieces whether it be personnel or physical resources, like livestock and land here at Oklahoma State, and sometimes the Ag research services groups have it, have those resources, and then we can combine them in a synergistic way to help produce beneficial information for people out there in the livestock industry.

- You know, a live animal demo of it was huge, and really helps us see all these things go from basically the lab or the computer to actual animals.

So it's, the partnership has been a huge part of what we've been able to accomplish.

- For Sunup, I'm Seth Fish.

- That'll do it for us this week.

Remember you can see us anytime at our website and also follow us on YouTube and social media.

From the Cimarron Valley Research Station at Perkins, I'm Lyndall Stout.

And we'll see you next time at Sunup.

(lively music)