(upbeat music) - Hello everyone and welcome to "SUNUP."

I'm Lyndall Stout.

As wheat and canola harvests are winding down, many producers are coming in right behind with their management and planting and their double crop systems, and they need to be on the lookout for insects in several forms.

OSU Extension cropping systems specialist Dr. Josh Lofton gets us up to speed.

- Yeah, so, we're finally getting to have that good rush through our winter crops.

So we're starting to really take out a high amount of our wheat acres.

From what I'm hearing across the state, a lot of our canola acres are going out, and so we're getting all of those crops in.

We're kind of transitioning to either thinking about our full season summer crops, or maybe even planting some of those double crops that go in after wheat and canola.

And that's where we're kind of the most concerned with some of those insect numbers being on the rise.

- Let's talk about what you're seeing.

Just kind of go down the list.

And if you can, talk about what happens this time of year, what the conditions are that make the bugs come out.

- Okay, so probably our biggest concern, so we have three kind of big categories that we're concerned with right now.

Chinch bugs, both true and false chinch bugs, are around.

We have a good amount of grasshoppers.

And then kind of the back end is we do have some worm presence pretty much around the state.

The chinch bugs are a big concern for those growers that are taking out our winter crops, so whether it be the wheat or the canola.

We've seen a good amount of pressure of both true and false chinch bugs in our wheat and our canola fields.

So if growers are kind of taking out those summer crops, have that soil moisture want to go in with a double crop, that's where we're most concerned with.

In addition, if we have our grain sorghum crop in close proximity to those wheat fields or to the canola fields, that's where we also have some big concern.

'Cause chinch bugs are a big concern in grain sorghum, but even small soybeans, small corn, small sorghum, they can be a big concern, and they might need to be addressed.

Grasshoppers are another thing that are really starting to pop out really high amounts, and it's kind of an unusually high amount.

These are kind of the levels we see in a drought condition to where we have, we typically have a fungus, a disease that keeps those in check.

And usually when we have enough moisture for that disease to kind of thrive, it kind of attacks those nymphs, and so we do keep those numbers kind of in check relatively well.

In some places we're not seeing that exactly, we're getting big nymph numbers.

It looks like we've had a big hatch throughout a good portion of the state just recently.

So we're seeing a lot of nymphs, we're seeing a lot of damage in soybean, sorghum, but we're also, Ashley Ferris, who's our new Extension entomologist, has been hearing reports down in southwest Oklahoma with a good amount of grasshopper pressure on cotton.

And so that's a big concern 'cause we're really small, cotton, cod leading stage, maybe one to two true leafs, and so getting a high amount of that vegetative tissue eaten with grasshoppers, especially with such high numbers, that can be an issue.

The big thought right now is, especially if you see a lot of grasshopper, maybe see a lot of chinch bug activity is go ahead and throw pyrethroid in whenever you're putting your pre's down.

Chinch bugs are really easy to control whenever they're not hiding in plant residue and plant tissue.

So if we have a lot of them out on bare ground, or a lot of them on some thinner residue, go ahead and throw that pyrethroid.

We did a trial last year that saw that that's kind of our most effective and our most economic control is getting them before we get a crop out there.

Once we get a crop out there, especially sorghum, to where we have collars that they like to get into, it's really hard.

We're more looking at a focused application of a higher dollar chemical with higher amounts of water.

If we can get 'em now and we can move them out of the system, then we're doing it a lot cheaper and a lot easier to what our growers are gonna have to do out in the field.

- So the IPM folks scouting around the state, growers also need to to be on the lookout too, and they can report that in, right?

- Yeah, if you're really seeing high numbers, one, if you have a question on what's the best management to go through, go ahead and call your local Extension educator, and they can touch base with somebody on campus.

If it's at one of those levels to where, you know, somebody needs to come out and we can walk through a management plan, that's all within the realm of possibilities.

But they can probably come out in a day or so, and take a good look, get some good numbers, and we can develop a management plan there.

But that's the best thing to do with any of our IPM, any of our pests is the more times that growers can lay eyes on a field, that's gonna be better, because it's gonna get it to where we can get it maybe at lower numbers, or at a younger stage to where it's a lot easier to control.

- Thanks a lot Josh.

And to contact your local county Extension office, we have a link for you at sunup.okstate.edu.

- Welcome to the Mesonet Weather Report.

I'm Wes Lee.

Sometimes we get lucky, and rainfall is targeted to where it can do the most good.

That was definitely the case last week when a cold front moved into Northwestern Oklahoma.

With it came a weather event that rarely happens, referred to as a thousand-year rainfall.

This means that based on historical records there was a one in a thousand chance of it happening at any given time.

Heavy rains fell over a couple of days, giving the panhandle and some northwest counties some significant totals.

This two-day map from midweek shows a couple of inches from Buffalo to Boise City and some seven-inch totals in Texas County.

These rains fell directly on what were the driest parts of the state, as you can see on this drought map.

This map out on Thursday did not include most of the rain because it came after the Tuesday morning deadline.

For the rest of the state, it has been a while since any rain has been seen.

This days since a tenth of an inch of rain map from Wednesday is showing two weeks or more in most of the state.

The forecast office is giving us a pretty decent chance of rain next week, but a lot of models are showing they may be overly optimistic.

Now here's Gary discussing the next ENSO weather cycle.

- Thanks, Wes, and good morning, everyone.

Well, after El Niño has dominated the weather headlines over the last year or so, I think it's time for La Niña to take its place, unfortunately.

Let's get right into those maps and take a look.

As you can see here, predictions from the Climate Prediction Center.

We do see the odds for La Niña to increase as we get into the summer months and then into the fall and winter months.

So for the July through September period, that blue bar signifying La Niña chances is about 65%.

And then of course as we get into the October, December, November, January, December, February period, we're up above 80%.

So it certainly looks like La Niña is going to form over the next few months, and it's going to persist through early spring of 2025.

So we do see, at least during the average La Niña, drier than normal conditions and warmer than normal conditions through the cool season.

So we're talking basically October, November-ish through March, April.

So right through that winter season.

It doesn't really impact us during the warm season, so we don't have to worry about it during the summer.

But when it comes in place in the fall, that's when we start to worry about those impacts.

So we take a look here at the precipitation departure from normals for November through March during the past moderate La Niñas going back to 1950.

There have been more than a handful.

So we do see, at least on average during those La Niña events, decrease in precipitation across most of Oklahoma except for the panhandle.

When you combine that with warmer than normal conditions, even during the cool season, that tends to spell drought formation in Oklahoma.

So we will keep our eyes on this La Niña formation over the next few months.

And then if we start to see those impacts start to crop up, we will certainly bring those to you.

But, again, it's something we need to be on the watch for.

And if you can prepare for possible drought conditions, as always, you should keep that in mind.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report.

- We're going all the way to Scotland now, where a couple of our colleagues are on a very special assignment.

SUNUP's Curtis Hare catches up with Dr. Derrell Peel for this week's Livestock Marketing Report.

- Well, Derrell, I'm not in Payne County.

- No, we're certainly not, I tell ya.

This is a little different location.

You know, I'm helping to lead a group of students that are coming over for a study abroad course to Scotland and Ireland.

And you and I came a couple of days early so that we could learn a little bit about agriculture here in Scotland as well as to see some of the sites and enjoy some of the historical interests here.

- Yeah, and it's been absolutely beautiful, especially looking at, you know, agriculture here.

We got to take some look at some sheep production.

Beef, cattle production, which isn't a huge thing here over in Scotland.

Primarily, you know, it's dairy cattle, and we got to see a lot of that with the vet school, which we will have a lot more for you in the coming weeks on SUNUP.

But first let's just check right in on the livestock markets.

What's happening?

- You know, livestock markets in the U.S. are really heating up following the trends that we've been seeing lately.

Cattle prices are moving close to record levels.

We've got fed cattle prices flirting with $2 a pound or $200 a hundred weight.

We'll get there certainly in the next few weeks or before the end of the year for sure.

Feeder cattle as well, generally stronger as well.

And we're seeing now boxed beef is really strong.

So we're continuing to see good retail demand support for beef.

The latest retail prices that we had actually set a new record for all fresh beef.

So across the board we're seeing, you know, lots of strength in demand, and that's supported by a tightening supply.

So these markets continue to move higher and higher.

- So where do we go from here?

- So, yeah, we've had great forage conditions.

We're making lots of pasture.

Generally in pretty good shape, not only in Oklahoma, but generally around the country.

We've got less drought now than we've had in about four years around the country.

So the big question in the cattle industry right now and has been for months is, are we beginning to save some heifers and think about herd rebuilding?

- [Darryl] We don't have any data yet that shows that.

I suspect there's some happening, but you know, we continue to see strong heifer slaughter numbers and so, you know, it's gonna be a while, and certainly we're not gonna get any herd expansion in 2024.

We may be setting the stage for some limited herd expansion in 2025.

- All right, thanks Darryl, and thanks for taking me on the trip.

I'm having a blast, and I can't wait to show the viewers what else we have coming up on the show.

- You bet.

- All right, from Edinburgh, Scotland, I'm Curtis here and this is Dr. Darryl Peel.

(upbeat music) - We're joined now by Dr. Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist.

Kim, wheat harvest starting to wind down.

What are you seeing in terms of prices?

- Well, prices have been falling, and I think that may be because we're having a nice, big, good quality product.

You look at the futures price, we've dropped about $1.20 on the cash and futures market, but it's all been in the cash and futures.

The basis has remained the same, and I think that's the good news right here.

You look at wheat prices go just before June 1.

They were up 6.85 down to around 5.65 right now, falling $1.20, and again, I think that's because of the big harvest.

- As you look ahead, what do you think is gonna happen next with wheat prices?

- Well, it's hard to tell what's gonna happen with wheat prices, and of course the best predictor is today's price, and that's $5.65 in Pond Creek, about 10 cents lower out in the Panhandle, 30 cents lower down around I-40 and 35 cents down in the Altus area, but if you look at the stocks to use ratio, for the US for wheat, 39.4% compared to 37.5 last year, average of 40.8.

So right at average this year, maybe a little below.

You look at the world, 31.6 projected for this year, 32.2 this last year and 33.5 on the average.

So the world's a little below average.

So you'd expect prices to be up around that 5.85, but remember we talked about that range you see during harvest, $1.83?

If you take that highest price we saw just before June 1 at 6.85, take the $1.83 out, you got about $5-wheat.

I think that's a good bottom.

If you look at the top, your 5.67, which has been our low price plus $1.83, gives you about 7.50.

So expected, 5.85, around 5.65 to 7.50, yeah, 5.65 to around 7.50.

- Let's switch gears now.

You know, everybody will be looking at corn next, of course.

What are you seeing in terms of corn prices this time of year?

- Well, corn prices, you know, we saw 'em falling.

They've risen just a little bit.

They were up around 4.75.

They went down to 4.40.

They're up around 4.45 now.

You look at those stocks to use ratios, and they indicate below average price, and your average corn price during harvest is 4.80, US, 14.2%.

Your average is 11.5, was 13.8 last year.

You look at the world, 25.6, 25.7 last year, 24.3.

So all above average.

So you'd expect below average prices, and that's what we're seeing, around 4.45.

It might come up a little bit.

If you look at a range, we could see it below four, and we could see it above five, but right now, 'cause it's a long ways to harvest, but right now around 4.50.

- Let's talk about soybeans now and give me some similar analysis.

- Well, you've seen about the same thing at beans.

You've seen a big drop in beans.

We were up around 11.55, got down around 10.75, down now around 10.60.

You look at the stocks to use ratio, 10.2% for next year, 8.3 last year, 7.6 average, well above average.

You look at the world, 32% versus 29.1 versus 26.7, well above average.

So you'd expect below average beans.

I think we could see bean prices below 10, maybe 11.50 or 12, but right now you gotta bet on around the 10, 60 area.

- And let's talk cotton now, last but not least, - Looking at cotton, you know, go back a couple months, we are around 85 cents, up in that area.

That was good.

We got cotton price down around 70.

That's the ice December futures contract price.

It's at 73.

That gives us, oh, 69 or 70 at harvest.

Look at the stocks to use ratio.

The US, well above average, 27.5 versus 23.

You look at the world.

It's about average.

It was average projected this year, is average last year, average a year before.

So I think we could see these 70 cent cotton prices maybe up into the average, which is around 75, but if you gotta put a range on it, 65 to 80.

- And in terms of talking with producers, what kind of guidance are you giving them on selling their crops?

- Well, especially with wheat, but I think wheat, corn, and beans staggered into the market.

If you're selling cotton yourself, do the same.

Staggered into the market are going to pull for cotton.

- Okay, lots of great information, Kim.

We'll see you next week.

(upbeat music) - Good morning Oklahoma and welcome to Cow Calf Corner.

This week's topic is to take a look at the impact of mature cow weight on the profit potential of a commercial cow calf operation.

Our nation's cow herd has been increasing in mature weight for decades and in the last 20 years, we've seen even a little more of an acceleration in this increase in mature size.

- Increased mature size of cows, as we've discussed in the past on Cow Calf Corner, have more input costs, more nutritional requirements, but they come with certain advantages as well.

Did you know that for every 100 pounds you increase your mature weight of a cow, on average, she weans off about 10 pounds more of calf.

But by that same token, if we took the same forage base and feed input costs that it would take to run 100 1,000 pound mature-sized cows, we could run 71 1,400 pound cows given that same forage resource and feed cost.

And so with this information, we worked through a little cowboy math today to take a look at what the potential downside is of different cow weights relative to profit potential.

We make some assumptions.

First, those 1,000 pound cows are gonna wean off 450 pound calves.

We're gonna assume that either set of cows in this situation are gonna have about a 90% calf crop weaned.

And as a reflection of current markets, we're just gonna grab a value of about $3 a pound of what a pound of weaned pay weight is worth in the calves.

And so walking through those numbers, those 100 head 1,000 pound cows with a 90% calf crop weaned and 450 pound calves weaned, we're gonna wean off about 40,500 pounds of weaned pay weight from that 100 head of cows.

Now, if we take that value times $3 a pound, we are generating a little over $120,000 in revenue from the 100 head of 1,000 pound cows.

By that same token, the same forage base that could accommodate 71 cows weighing 1,400 pounds, we would expect them to wean off 490 pound calves.

Again with a 90% calf crop weaned and a value of $3 a pound, that's a little over $90,000 in revenue that they actually generate, again, off the same forage base.

We can question whether or not the 40 pound heavier calves would be worth quite as much per pound as those lighter calves, and they're probably not.

We could question if the value of weaned calves is always gonna be $3 a pound.

And they're not always gonna be worth $3 a pound.

But the point is the 100 head of 1,000 pound cows generate about 9,000 more pounds of weaned calf pay weight if that's our marketing endpoint.

So there's several downsides of excessive mature weight in cow herds.

This is one of them.

I encourage producers this fall when you wean calves, catch a weight on the calves, but also catch a weight on individual cows, and do the math and take a look if excessive cow mature size is robbing you of profit potential in your commercial cow calf operation.

I hope this helps.

And as always, thanks for joining us on Cow Calf Corner.

(upbeat music) - [Announcer] Cattle producers and those in the beef industry, here's a continuing education opportunity for you.

You can get your Beef Quality Assurance Certification at a workshop coming up on Friday, June 28th at the Woodward Livestock Auction.

Topics include biosecurity, herd health, nutrition, meat cutting, and a market update.

The BQA certification event runs from 1:30 to about eight o'clock that night, and includes some great giveaways and a steak dinner.

BQA is a national program coordinated at the state level to share up-to-date management strategies through every segment of the beef industry.

For registration information, go to sunup.okstate.edu.

- We're here in Garfield County checking out wheat harvest this week with Tyler Schnaithman.

How's it going?

- It's really, it's going pretty good.

We're kind of nearing the 50% mark, so kind of at the point where just trying to kind of keep everybody together and keep the the charisma high and keep momentum going.

So we've been very pleased with this wheat crop.

Yields have been better than what kind of we expected, kind of general consensus in the area.

Test weights have been really good, so we've been really, really tickled from that standpoint.

- Let's talk about this growing season a little bit and kind of how it started in the fall and carry me through the winter and early spring and then where we are now.

- Right.

Well, we had a really good winter.

A lot of winter moisture had our hopes, expectations really high for this crop, a lot more so than the last couple years, but then we kind of got to that March April timeframe and started to get really dry, even to the point that, I mean, a lot of people kind of almost got to the point to pretty much write this crop off, didn't have a lot of expectations for it.

Caught some late rains.

Filling weather was tremendous, about as ideal as it could be.

Test weights have just been off the charts this year.

You know, I think a guy can credit a lot of that back to the genetics, newer seed varieties, you know, that have allowed this wheat crop to handle more adverse conditions and really, you know, ended in a harvest well above expectations.

- That's so great to hear.

And speaking of the weather, we all have been glued to the news at different times over the last few months with these tornadoes and really heavy thunderstorms.

Were you guys affected by that in any of your fields?

- You know, we were right kind of localized areas, but right in that Garber area, we had some wheat in that area that had anywhere from 70 to 85% hail damage.

And so that wheat was a little, wasn't too fun to cut, and yields weren't quite as what we were hoping for in that.

- [Speaker] Particular area.

But luckily, it was just kind of a localized area and a majority of our fields weren't really affected by that.

- You plant a lot of varieties, some of which are OSU.

How are those in particular performing this year?

- You know, so far, from what we've cut, we've been just ecstatic about Showdown.

You know, it's been our best wheat by at least 10 bushel up to this point.

Just an exceptional variety with a ton of top-end yield potential.

Test weights have been good.

We're fixing to cut Doublestop.

We got high hopes for it.

We still have OK Corral to cut.

So we're looking forward to kind of this last half as well.

But up to this point, it seems like Showdown has really stood out.

- And it's the genetics of course, and we talk a lot about the science of the wheat on this show, but it's also management practices too.

There's a lot of strategy with you and your brother and your dad and the team, I'm sure, to keep that all in motion in these different fields.

- Yeah, yeah.

We have a great team between my dad and brother.

Our wives all help out, pitch in too.

It takes a lot of people just to, you know... From bringing meals to the field, to getting everything planted and sprayed timely.

And we really try to pride ourselves on being as timely as possible.

A lot of times, if a guy's a few days late on a fertilizer or fungicide application that can, end of the day, can cost a lot of yield.

So we have a great team of help and super thankful for that.

- Talk about the energy and emotions of this time of year, right?

There's so much work that leads up to it and you're excited for harvest, but it's also a really stressful time too, isn't it?

- Yeah.

- Exhausting?

- It is, yeah.

That's kind of where, you know...

Normally, we have a nice rain delay at some point during harvest.

And this year, we were kind of slow to start, but then this weather's cleared off.

It's been a hundred about every day and so we're kind of getting to that point where you can tell everybody's kind of starting to wear down a little bit.

But no, just, there's still a huge adrenaline rush with harvest.

I mean, trucks come into the field and we eat all of our meals in the field.

Our wives make meals and my mom does.

And, you know, there's just a huge adrenaline rush.

I mean, it's unique that, you know, occupation with production, agriculture.

I mean, you earn all your income at one given moment, so there's always a lot of stress, pressure.

But at the end of the day, it's, you know, in my opinion, it's one of the very best times of the year.

- And then you're cutting your wheat and then there's no slowing down, right?

Is there stuff coming in right behind this?

- Yes, in fact, my brother's been running the planter and we're trying to get this filled, sprayed here within the next 24 to 48 hours and planted back to soybeans.

So our rotation's kind of set up where we're wheat, double crop soybean and corn rotation.

So we really like that.

We feel like that's helped or wheat yield some.

And then also for growing seed production, we're always having clean ground to plant this foundation of registered seed on.

- This is your family farm for how many generations now?

- So I'm the fifth generation, brother and I.

- Okay, so tell me about growing up here and then maybe the prospect of passing on to this next group of kids that are gonna be growing up here.

- We've just been... My brother and I have been very thankful and grateful for the opportunity.

You know, anytime we think we face adversity or a tough day, we think about, you know, our grandpa and great-grandpa and great-great grandpapa that were driving coal mines without cabs.

And, you know, just the kind of conditions that they endured and, you know, makes us extremely grateful.

And my brother and I, we both have some children that, you know, hopefully one day our goal would be that, you know, they try to try to carry on the same passion and pride that we do if they choose to do so.

- Great.

Well, thanks for having us out.

We wish you and the family the best as you wrap up harvest this year.

- You bet.

Well, thank you for coming.

(upbeat lively music) - That'll do it for our show this week.

A reminder, you can see Sunup anytime on our website and stream us anytime on our YouTube channel.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Have a great week, everyone.

And remember, Oklahoma agriculture starts at Sunup.

(lively upbeat music) (light guitar music)