(upbeat music) - Hello everyone and welcome to SUNUP.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

We begin today with an update on Oklahoma's wheat crop including some guidance, as you make decisions at this stage in the growing season.

Here's our Extension Precision Nutrient Management Specialist, Dr. Brian Arnall.

- Hi, Brian Arnall, Precision Nutrient Management Extension Specialist.

We look at the current market price today, we have volatile numbers in the fertilizer and we have crazy numbers in the grain.

A lotta people are asking, "Hey, we've got a little bit "of rain on our wheat ground and may or may not fertilized.

"What's left to do, what can I do?"

Well, the work at Oklahoma State has really come a long ways to help us better understand this scenario, in fact, this delayed nitrogen.

As we look across the state, we're in various stages of wheat growth.

We have hollow stem developing in our early planted, and then we still have a ways to go as we go further north into some of our later planted wheat crop.

The work I've done over the years have shown that if we have nitrogen deficiencies and we fertilize at joining or even slightly after joining, we have a value of return, meaning that I can apply fertilizer even after the crop has hit hollow stem and get a return on my investment in terms of yield, both grain and forage biomass.

It also helps if we apply that time of year on our grain protein as that more nitrogen is there for the crop when it's building protein which is nitrogen content in that berry.

So even if you don't have your nitrogen on yet, and you're thinking about it because the wheat price is where it's at, you have time.

You have time up through hollow stem or after.

As we start lookin' at our summer crops, we're looking at soybean, sorghum, and corn, looking at high P and K prices and not really knowing what to do.

This is the time that you contact your County Extension Office and make sure you have a good soil sample.

Make sure you know how much phosphorus, potassium you need to apply.

Our recommendations are solid and we won't cost your yield by under-applying.

Just make sure you get that soil test 'cause without it, it's just a guessing game.

On the nitrogen side, especially for our corn, sorghum, and cotton, while I don't typically recommend deep soil nitrate tests just due to the volatility in the soil nitrogen levels, meaning that they can go up, or they may go down, depending on rain, leaching of volatilization and such.

This year, due to the extreme cost of nitrogen, looking at prices from $0.85 a pound of nitrogen to $1.00, that value of that deemed nitrate sample really starts showing itself.

I would recommend anybody with the capability to take a deep six-inch to 12-inch or six to 18-inch soil test, see what you have down there.

If you find you have 50 to 80 pounds of nitrate at depth, you don't have to account for all of it in your recommendation, but you should surely account for some of it.

Maybe take 50 to 75% of what you find into your final recommendation.

But just think, if you can find 50 pounds of nitrate at depth, that's worth about $50 per acre right now as far as nitrogen fertilizer savings.

It's worth is, crop price is good, even though fertilizer price is high.

Again, some of the major take homes this year is it's not too late on winter wheat.

Even when it may seem too late, wheat can recover, especially with the wheat price we have and that soil test for our summer crops is going to be critical, it's going to be essential if not critical to making the right fertilizer rate recommendations to maximize our input efficiencies and optimize yield.

(upbeat music) - Joining us today is Derrell Peel, OSU Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist.

Derrell, we're into March now, so have all the wheat cattle moved off wheat pasture or what does that situation look like?

- I think the bulk of cattle have moved off of wheat pasture.

Of course, it's been kind of a strange year, right?

And so the cattle, actually, it seemed to move early.

The volumes at Oklahoma auctions have been down a little bit the last couple of weeks.

I think those cattle, many of 'em had already moved at this point.

- So are there graze out wheat pasture cattle?

- Well, there will be some.

Some folks plant wheat with no intention of ever doing anything but grazing out.

Of course, they're still hoping for rain, right?

So the drought situation, the wheat pasture doesn't look very good, but you do still see a few sets of cattle out.

Obviously, with recent events, we've had tremendous changes in the wheat market, so that may have some folks thinking a little bit about what they want to do if they have any possibility of getting any wheat.

- So obviously markets have been affected by the situation in the war in Ukraine right now how would you assess that situation for cattle markets at this time?

- Well, obviously, you know the big factor right now is uncertainty, right?

We just don't know what's gonna happen.

Markets don't like uncertainty.

They react very, very dramatic to uncertainty.

So we've seen grain markets go limit up to record levels.

We've seen cattle markets go down in response to this.

And, some of that is just the uncertainty but there's, you know we do know that wheat exports or grain exports really, out of the Black Sea area have been disrupted.

So that's an immediate, real impact in the market.

And that means our feed costs are going up from a cattle producers standpoint.

And then obviously we've got higher energy prices, Russia and the Ukraine, are substantial exporters of fertilizer and so all of those things are adding to input costs that are gonna affect cattle producers.

Now, in terms of actual beef markets directly, globally, Russia imports a little bit of beef, they're not a major importer.

We haven't exported any beef to Russia in about a decade.

And we don't actually, for a number of years we have not exported any pork or poultry either.

So in terms of the direct impacts on meat trade, not too much of an impact immediately but certainly these other factors are going to continue to weigh on the market.

- What are the implications for beef being consumed?

- You know, that's one of the questions right now.

Obviously beef prices have gone up pretty dramatically in recent months anyway, we had questions about whether or not there was a limit to that, at what point will the consumer reaction sort of put a limit to, to beef demand.

There's a lot of general inflationary pressure now and this adds to that.

So, you know, when, when you look at gas prices now going to historically high levels, that's a direct impact on consumers and beef is pretty sensitive to, you know, those kinds of things.

So we're watching it close.

We, you know, it's too early to tell exactly but certainly I would anticipate that we will see some impacts on consumers.

Consumers themselves are gonna continue to face high prices whether it's beef or really food in general as a result of this.

- Well, we appreciate that Darrell and we'll continue to keep eye on the markets.

- [Darrell] You bet.

(upbeat music) - Welcome to the Mesonet weather report, I'm Wes Lee.

Soil temperatures are the driving force for several different agricultural practices.

It determines spring green up, when to plant and when pests will become a problem.

One other thing it determines is when wheat will move into the first hollow of stem stage.

First hollow stem is when the seed head moves upward from the crown and becomes damaged if cattle are still in the field.

With the unexpected high price of wheat, we are currently experiencing many producers may be second guessing whether graze-out wheat is the most profitable option.

Well, for most wheat varieties, it may be too late to switch from graze-out to dual-purpose wheat.

The Mesonet First Hollow Stem Advisor separates wheat varieties into three different categories based upon genetically how fast they are expected to reach this important stage.

The map for early varieties shows that on Tuesday there is red everywhere except the panhandle.

Red means it is likely past the 50% first hollow stem stage.

For middle varieties, all but the northern counties have reached the red stage as well.

The map for late varieties like Pete and Endurance show that a change to grain might still be possible in the north.

Infield scouting should be conducted to determine first hollow stem for your specific situation.

Now here's Gary with a look at the latest drought maps.

- Thanks Wes and good morning, everyone.

Well, despite all the storms we've had come through the state since January 1st we still have drought intensifying across Oklahoma.

Let's get to the newest drought modern map and see where we're at.

Well, we have the same general picture, we have drought basically across all but the far eastern sections of the state and as we get farther over into west Oklahoma, that drought turns the severe extreme exceptional categories which are the worst categories on the drought monitor scale.

Now we do have some new D4 areas across far west Oklahoma, down in southwest Oklahoma, extending down into Texas and also up in northwest Oklahoma.

And the D4 also extended to the east in the panhandle.

So we are seeing these D4 areas start to grow and really come together possibly if we don't get significant moisture in the next few weeks.

We look at the drought monitor change map for the country for the last week, unfortunately in our area, it's all yellow which means one class degradation or one class intensification.

And again, those are over into the far western portions of the state, a little bit down into the southwestern area and also in the north central Oklahoma.

So nothing good on this map for Oklahoma or really most of the Southern Plains.

- And lookin' at the rainfall, we're gonna go all the way back to September first.

This is the cool, growing season, and we see that picture of some very beneficial moisture across far, far Eastern Oklahoma, just a very narrow strip.

But as you go to the west, the amounts drop off pretty rapidly, getting below 10 inches around I-35, and then less than five inches as you get in farther out into Northwestern Oklahoma, and of course less than two inches out in the Western Panhandle.

So definitely not good for the Western 5/6 of the state, let's say.

The departure from normal map for that same timeframe, really most of the state has deficits.

In fact, all the state has deficits.

It's greater down across South Central and parts of West Oklahoma.

But you know, you have to remember that Western Oklahoma doesn't expect as much rainfall so the percent of normals out in this area are much greater as we see in this map.

Again, the percent of normals for the same time period.

Okay, so the snowstorms haven't helped as much yet.

Now we need some good rainstorms.

Instead of two, to four, to six inches of snow, we need two, to four, to six inches of rain.

Hopefully spread out a little bit so as not to cause flooding.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report (upbeat music) - Dr. Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist joins us.

Now, Kim, this is on everyone's mind as the war in Ukraine enters its third week.

Have crop prices stabilized yet?

- Well, if you look at wheat and corn, the answer's no.

If you look at soybeans and cotton, yes.

Go back to February the twentieth in Medford, Oklahoma.

The price of wheat was $8.14 a bushel.

That is for forward contracted wheat for harvest delivery.

You get to March the seventh, that price was $11.52.

Two days later on the ninth it was back down to $10.30.

It looks like it's hunting for a top up here, but there's still a lot of volatility.

You got corn prices back on the twentieth, $5.73.

Now this is 2022 harvest prices.

5.73 for a forward contract on March the seventh, 6.18 on March the ninth, 6.12.

So corn prices have risen but look like they've stabilized.

Soybeans, they've been around $14, plus or minus 10 or 20 cents.

Really nothing on beans.

Cotton at 101, nothing really there.

Now things goin' on in the market besides the the war that may stabilize it is India is the second largest producer of wheat.

They in the past have exported very little wheat.

Last year they said they wanted to start getting in the export market.

They have wheat to export and it looks like they may enter the market, and that could help stabilize our prices.

You also got Belarus that wants to export more wheat, and Pakistan and Romania wants to start putting more wheat in the export market.

That would lower wheat prices but I think those prices will still remain relatively high, but at least they won't be as variable as they've been over the last couple weeks.

- We've talked a lot also about increases in the price of fertilizer.

What are we seeing there?

- Well, fertilizer, just like wheat, the majority of the increase in price of fertilizers was before the war started.

You go back to February of '21 through February of '22 before the war, you saw 104%, a doubling of nitrogen prices.

You saw a 68% increase in P and K prices.

After the war started, you got a 34% increase in fertilizer and about a 25% increase in phosphorus and potassium prices.

Big increases in prices.

But the majority of that price increase was already there.

It is because of COVID and the hard winter, the supply chain of fertilizer had been emptied, and the manufacturers and the importers have been trying to get that supply built back up.

So that's why we already had high prices and then the war just created more problems and magnified that price increase.

- The WASDE numbers were released this week as well.

Normally that would be the first thing we talked about, but so many things, so many big things going on right now.

Any surprises or any, anything going on with WASDE?

- Well, not very much on this WASDE.

You can look at the ending stocks.

That summarizes everything on wheat.

They expected the ending stocks to be 628 million bushels, came in at 653.

Little higher, but you know, given the scheme of things, that's a no impact.

Corn, they expected one billion, 479 million bushels of corn.

They got one billion, 440.

- Right near there, so nothing.

Soybeans, they expected 278 million bushels, they got 285, not much change there.

Cotton, the same way.

No changes in cotton.

So the WASDE, it was a non-event this time.

- With all this in mind, lots of factors, variables, turbulence even, what guidance do you have for producers this week?

- Well, I think if producers can just stay out of the market right now, stay on the sidelines and let things stabilize.

If you're looking at summer crops and prices, they could stabilize, but you can't afford not to put a fertilizer on your commodity.

You gotta produce a high quality commodity that you can sell domestically and on the export market.

It takes about three pounds of nitrogen to produce a bushel of corn.

With urea at $890 a ton, and that's a high price, It takes about $2.90 of nitrogen to make a bushel of corn.

And what can you forward contract corn for now?

Up in the six and the $7 range.

You can't afford not to put it up.

- Okay, great advice and perspective, Kim.

Thank you and we'll see you next week.

(upbeat music) - Good morning, Oklahoma.

Welcome to Cow-Calf Corner and thanks for joining us.

This week's topic is addressing some of the things that we see in modern genetic prediction and we had discussed this because 30 years ago we basically had four EPDs and since that time we've seen an increase three or four times over in the amount of expected progeny differences that are actually reported.

We've also seen dollar values introduced onto the scene.

In the past 10, 15 years, we have genetically enhanced EPDs and so we're gonna kinda go through and give a rundown on each of these things and what they actually mean.

Expected Progeny Differences, or EPDs, are an estimate of the breeding value of an animal for a particular trait.

The convenient thing about EPDs is that they are reported in the units that that particular trait gets measured in.

These things are helpful to us to compare to other animals in that registry or in that same breed to think about their genetic potential as a parent.

So give a couple of examples.

Let's say we're comparing two bulls in their weaning weight EPDs and we see a bull that's at 61 versus a bull that's at 50.

What that is telling us, that 11 pound difference, is if we make those two bulls to an equal set of cows, we're gonna see about 11 pound heavier calves at weaning in that next calf crop.

If we look at a heifer pregnancy EPD, for example, these are reported in percentage units indicating the likelihood that a bull's daughters actually get bred in that first calving season.

So if we compare two bulls, say one is a 15 and one is a nine, that means the bull at a 15 is advantage in six percentage per points.

If we let them sire a set of daughters, the bull at 15, his daughters are 6% more likely to get bred in that first breeding season if we expose 'em to bulls.

So EPDs are always reported in the units that we typically report a trade in and we use 'em for comparison sake to think about what we should see in that calf crop or that set of offspring that they actually sire.

Dollar values are something that's really came on the scene in the last 20 years and in a dollar value, we're taking a group of traits that we know impact a particular, they impact the value at a particular marketing endpoint, or maybe they're all traits that impact a particular breeding goal.

So we put an economic weighting on all those things and we take several EPDs and distill 'em down to a dollar value, that again, is predicting differences in the value of offspring.

Let's take a look at one of these as an example, a dollar beef that gets reported by the American Angus Association.

This value actually puts an economic weighting on dry matter intake, yearling weight, carcass weight, fat thickness, ribeye area, and marbling score.

And that economic weighting gets distilled down to a dollar value.

So if we compare two bulls, let's say one's got a dollar B of 225, one's got a dollar B of 200.

The 25 pound difference indicates the additional value we should see in his offspring if we are going to market those as fed cattle on a carcass-value based.

So dollar values permit us to select for several things that we know are economically important relative to a specific marketing endpoint or breeding goal.

What is an accuracy?

An accuracy is typically something we see abbreviated as ACC reported along with every EPD that actually gets reported.

Accuracies tell us what the reliability is we should place in the EPD, but another way of thinking about 'em is basically that they range from zero to one and they indicate the amount of information that's been taken into account in generating that particular EPD.

- An accuracy value that gets closer to one means that we have a lot of ancestors, pedigree relatives, offspring, and potentially DNA data taken into account to get that value up closer to a one.

And typically, younger animals when they're first born, where their EPDs are just an average of their parents, are gonna be lower in accuracy value, and that more information we collect on progeny, or families, or DNA bumps that value up higher.

Final topic and thing we address is what do we mean if we ever see a genomically enhanced EPD or something that may get abbreviated as a GE-EPD.

All that means is that we have submitted DNA on that animal, and taking a look at that, and identifying some genes of known additive effect.

It has tweaked the EPD values themselves, and again, it has bumped the accuracy, because it's additional information we've taken into account.

Important to remember that EPDs are always our best estimate of an animal's breeding value as a parent for a particular trait.

Thanks for joining us this week on Cow-Calf Corner.

(upbeat music) - Finally, today, as part of women's history month, we're taking a look back at a SUNUP favorite that takes us to the OSU extension office, here's SUNUP's Curtis Hare.

- [Curtis] Fridays are typically looked at as a wind-down day to the end of a very long work week.

But for Logan County Extension Ag and 4-H Educator, Anndee Turner, Fridays are anything but that.

- We have a lot of our county 4-H contests on Saturdays, so we still get quite a few phone calls.

So try and answer those and return those phone calls as they come in.

- [Curtis] The only morning breaks come in the form of redirecting vaccine appointments to the health department next door.

- I have an appointment for taking the vaccine.

- [Anndee] The door on the east end of the building.

- [Curtis] The pressure of serving a community comes with a territory for county educators.

But when you're only five months into a job that was vacant for six months prior, the pressure of acting as both ag and 4-H educator during a pandemic is daunting.

- I am essentially a one-woman show or a circus, depending on the day of the week you ask me that question.

Please, don't put that on air.

My mom will kill me.

Managing all the new information is kind of hard.

It's a lot to take in, and we have a pretty strong 4-H program that I'm trying to keep going.

And one of the biggest obstacles I think I have faced is that in a new job, and especially in my role in delivering information to the community and to the producers is, how do I get that to them?

You know, co-ops aren't open, so we're not hanging out drinking coffee.

So I can't go in there and, you know, "Hey guys, I'm Anndee, I'm new.

Here's some information about."

- [Curtis] About 120 miles to the Northeast in Rogers County, extension director Donna Patterson is preparing for this summer's district tour show.

Though today's rain is slowing down the work.

- The last show that we had in 2019, we had a hundred youth participate in our district horse show, and about 140 head of horses.

Yeah, it's a lot of just prep and cleaning and trying to get ready for the next event.

(Donna laughing) - [Curtis] Although it's been about 17 years since Donna was in Anndee's shoes, the memories of navigating her first few months as an ag educator aren't hard to counter up.

- If I had a dollar for every time I heard my secretary after our ag agent retired, and I took that position.

If I had a dollar for every time that I heard her say, "Yes, a girl," I would probably have at least a good 20 or 50 bucks in my pocket.

But I think with any new person, my predecessor had been here for several 20 years, and so they knew him and they had a relationship with him.

And then it's someone new.

An extension, when it's busy, it sometimes can get overwhelming.

Because this is the time of year where we're doing soil samples, we've got spring shows.

And as a new educator, it can be extremely overwhelming.

Even as a veteran educator, there's days that I'm just like, "Okay, wait a second."

I've been a mentor to educators, and the biggest thing I see is one thing at a time.

I think the biggest piece of advice is find that running buddy or mentor.

There's so much value in having kind of a partner in crime of how to work this extension program.

- [Curtis] While Anndee has a few county educators she can lean on, she says Northwest extension area livestock specialist Dana Zook is definitely a stabilizing force.

- Dana and I have worked together probably more than she has had to work with most new educators, and that's okay.

I'm gonna be a strong one in the end of it.

- Anndee has done a great job.

She's been excited about the job.

She's not been afraid to ask questions, and that's the key component to a lot of educators.

They have a lot of different roles to play, and so it's understandable that they would need to ask people for help.

- [Curtis] Though many miles and many years of experience separate Anndee and Donna, a thread that ties them together becomes clear after only a few minutes of meeting with them.

A love for agriculture.

- I have been involved in agriculture since the day my bare feet hit the ground, and just, it's kind of my passion.

I think it's important.

Feel my happiest whenever I'm engaging with youth and with the agriculture industry, I think it's important.

- I come from very strong women.

My grandmothers were both involved in the farms and ranches.

And so, to me, it's just life.

- [Curtis] From both Logan and Rogers counties, I'm Curtis Hare.

- By the way, Curtis Hare will be rejoining the SUNUP team next week after a couple of months break, just in time for a very busy season for SUNUP, and of course, Oklahoma agriculture.

Curtis, we're very excited to have you back.

And that does it for us this week, we'll see you next time at SUNUP.

(gentle music)