(light music) - Hello, everyone, and welcome to "Sunup."

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Last week's rainfall across Oklahoma was definitely a sight for sore eyes.

But was the moisture enough to make a difference in the wheat fields that needed it the most?

To get up to speed, here's our small grains extension specialist, Dr. Amanda Silva.

- So we started the plot tours last week.

Southwest, covering the southwest region, south central, and I was very surprised with what I saw.

There's some good-looking wheat fields.

Of course we are not still up to our potential in those good-looking fields, but I'm saying for considering the conditions we've had, there are some good-looking wheat fields in the area.

Although, driving around, you also see some areas that the wheat just looks very poor.

Western area of Oklahoma, we had some fields that were abandoned due to drought.

We are seeing some freeze damage on top of the drought-stressed crop.

And it seems like this year we might see a switch from areas than what we saw last year.

So last year, our worst part of the wheat production was more in the southwest area, but I think this year, maybe our best production will come from southwest and southern part of the state.

Other things.

In general, disease pressure is really low.

We have seen some reports of virus diseases, so like wheat streak mosaic.

We also had some issues with spider mites, brown wheat mites.

But overall we do have a lot of issues with the drought.

We all know, yes, we got some rain.

That was great, and however, in some situations that the yield is not there anymore.

So now we really hope to get that rainfall to continue so we can fuel the grains that that are out there.

You know, there is a very high need for hay.

Hay prices are also very good.

So even in those areas where we are seeing very good wheat fields, we may not see them being harvested.

So there are a lot of people considering cutting the wheat for hay, and so we'll see.

This will likely be another year where we have our harvest acres down, yields down, but like I said, hopefully we'll continue to have some rain so we can fuel the grains that are out there.

You know, the conditions are not what we would like to see.

It's a very unfortunate year again for our wheat production in Oklahoma.

However, we continue doing that research.

So we have our variety trials around the state and we'll continue providing that information to growers.

Yeah, so we'll be moving to our north central plots.

So the Lahoma Field Day will be on May 19th.

We'll also be at northwest Panhandle area.

So we still have a lot more to to cover, and I look forward to seeing everybody there.

(light music) - Good morning, everyone.

Wesley is off this week, so I'm running the show and we're gonna talk about drought, of course, and the relief of drought.

So let's get right to that new drought monitor map.

Okay, as you can see, still about the same drought picture in the state.

We do have that I-44 demarcation line between basically no drought to the southeast and lots of drought to the northwest.

But we did reduce that severity of the drought to the north and west of that dividing line.

So now where we had extreme and exceptional drought, we just have more extreme and severe drought.

So it doesn't sound like a lot, but it's definitely a step in the right direction.

The first big reduction in the severity and coverage of drought in several months, actually.

So, at least in that part of the state.

Now we did have that big reduction in the southeast, but hopefully northwest Oklahoma can get in on the act.

Now we're gonna pivot to soil moisture.

We can see this seven-day change in soil moisture.

At least at the 10 inch level.

A lot of areas did show a pretty good moistening, especially across the north and west.

Those were the areas that were desperately needing it.

Not as many areas to the south and east could moisten, because they were already pretty moist.

But we do see that area across north and west Oklahoma where those rains did moisten up the soil.

So great changes there.

Now when we look at the USDA reports for topsoil moisture, the percent are very short.

So this is the week ending April 23rd.

So last week before the rains.

- We see in Oklahoma 79% of the state was in short to very short conditions for topsoil moisture.

However, when we go to this week, we see that is reduced all the way to 43%.

So, a 36% decrease in that percent short to very short condition, so that again, shows the improvement in the soil moisture.

Not out of danger by any means, but certainly an improvement and the first one in quite some time.

Now that USDA subsoil moisture report, we see again, from last week 77% of the state the subsoil moisture was considered short to very short.

And then you go to this week.

It's not a great improvement, but it is an improvement none the less of 11%, now down to 66%.

So certainly good news on the topsoil moisture and the subsoil moisture according to these reports.

Now we talk about adequate moisture, percent adequate from the USDA, that topsoil moisture, 53% of the state is considered with adequate topsoil moisture.

So again, that's not the best news, but it's certainly good news compared to where we were.

Now, in addition to the rains we're seeing this week and into the weekend, hopefully we get some more as we go into next week.

We see the Climate Prediction Center six to 10 day precipitation outlook.

This is for May 8-12, so for next week we do see increased odds of above normal precipitation amounts, especially across the southern Oklahoma.

When we look at the winter wheat areas across the United States, we still see much of the area in drought, 51% of the winter wheat production areas within those drought monitor boundaries.

And a lotta that is Oklahoma and Kansas.

When you get over into the Midwest, not quite so bad.

But these are areas that certainly we need some improvement, at least to save the crops that are still going.

Okay, that's it for this week and we will see you next week on the Mesonet Weather Report.

(upbeat music) - It's time to check in on the cattle markets with our livestock marketing specialist, Dr. Derrell Peel.

So Derrell, how are the cattle markets looking now that May is officially here?

- Well you know fat cow markets actually set a new record in early April.

They've pulled back a little bit.

That's kind of a seasonal peak probably.

And normally we would expect to see 'em drop a little bit into the summer, towards the end of summer, Labor Day and then go back up.

I don't think they're gonna drop very far this year given the underlying support in the market, the supply fundamentals.

They'll probably kinda move more sideways I think for most of the summer.

They may drift a little bit lower.

And then this fall they're gonna take off again and you know, very likely move to even new record levels.

- So, are feeder cow prices higher than normal?

- Feeder cow prices are moving up.

They haven't set new records yet, but they're movin' towards record levels.

I don't know if we'll get there by this fall.

We could very well move past record levels by this fall.

But, all of these prices are gonna continue to trend higher this year and on into next year and we will set you know, record levels well above anything we've ever seen before sometime in the next two years or so.

- So for the past couple months you've been predicting that beef production's gonna start to decline.

Is that still happening?

- It is happening.

We're starting to see both slaughter and carcass weights pulling beef production down.

So you know, cattle slaughter's down, steer slaughter in particular.

Heifer slaughter's still hangin' in there.

We've got quite a few heifers on feed, but we're workin' our way through 'em and they're beginning to come down.

Calf slaughter is down.

The beef calf slaughter in particular is down about 12%.

And carcass weights across the board are lighter this year compared to last year.

So for all of these reasons we are starting to see beef supplies tighten up.

- So how are consumers gonna be impacted by all of this?

- Well, you know, certainly sounds like tighter supplies implies higher prices and I think that's probably what's gonna happen.

You know, at the wholesale level, box beef prices have been moving up.

Again, some of that's a little bit seasonal.

We're gettin' ready for you know, grilling season, Memorial Day weekend the end of this month will kick that off.

But wholesale buying has been going on through April and into May.

And so you know, we have seen the increase in box beef prices.

But again, the underlying tightness of supplies means that these prices are probably gonna move higher.

Retail prices the past oh, 15 or 18 months have been fairly high, but pretty steady for consumers.

I think before it's, you know, in the next few months we will see those prices push even higher even though they're already at very high levels.

- So lookin' around, it's definitely a lot greener than the last time we had you on.

So, Oklahoma did get widespread rain, so is that gonna help with cattle producers at all?

And then, going into the markets, is that gonna have any effect?

- It will have an effect.

The timing was you know, kinda getting late, but still in time.

So the rains we got were extremely beneficial to the drought areas in Oklahoma.

We will see some pasture and hay production that results from this.

Now, we're gonna need a lot more.

So it's kinda gotta be a down payment on additional rain, but it certainly helps and moves things forward at this point in time.

That may, you know, from a broader market standpoint, that will be the key to sort of stopping liquidation, if you will, stopping getting worse and when that happens you know again, probably not immediately, but as we move through the year and on into next year that may set the stage for the kind of herd rebuilding that we expect to see.

And so we'll have a lotta heifer retention taking place.

I expect that'll really kick off.

- This fall for the most part.

All righty.

Thanks Daryl.

Dr. Daryl Peele, livestock marketing specialist here at Oklahoma State University.

(calm music) - Dr. Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist is here now.

Kim, the big news this week is Oklahoma's wheat production estimate is out.

What did it reveal?

- Well, it revealed that the production in Oklahoma for wheat in 2023 would be somewhere around 54 million bushels.

- Do you agree with that estimate?

- I think that estimate may be a little low.

You know, couple weeks ago when our crop conditions were not quite as bad as they are right now, I had that production up in the 70 million bushel range.

However, our crop conditions went from about 45% down to 65% for the poor to very poor conditions.

You look at '23 Oklahoma conditions versus last year at harvest, you got 65% poor to very poor, 23% fair, 12% good to excellent.

Last year at harvest you had 49, 41 and 10.

So you'd expect last year we produced 69 million bushels.

You'd expect production lower than than that.

However, we had a 10% increase in wheat planted acres.

Now there's a lot going on there.

You got a insurance price, $8.77.

After you take, say you got a 70% level, that gives you about a $6.70 price if you can write it off.

And then you can come in with a summer crop.

So there's a lot going on in the market right now.

That 54 may be relatively good.

I'm not gonna be surprised if it's not a little higher than that.

Now if you look at overall on the hard red, the US hard red winner, 44% poor to very poor, last year it was 42.

So you've got the overall crop about the same as last year.

And last year we produced 531 million bushels of hard red winter wheat.

And I think our US production for HRW will probably be somewhere in that range.

- With the production numbers coming in a little lower, did the markets react or do you think they will?

- Oh, we had a 40 cent price increase the day after that number came out.

Now I think that's just happenstance.

That's just, that's just my opinion, because Russia has pretty much said they're not gonna renew the export agreement with Ukraine.

And that's gonna stop Ukraine's wheat production coming out.

If you go back and look at the $1.40 cent price decrease and then you, today's 40 cent price increase, I think that's a Russian deal.

- You mentioned Russia.

Any other factors that are playing in?

- Well, I think Ukraine's important, but you look at Russia, their, any stocks are projected to be 530 million bushels.

Their average is 360.

That's 170 million extra bushels they got to ship out.

You look at their exports, 1.65 billion bushels, that's 300 million bushels above average just for this crop year.

So they're coming into next year with an average or better crop.

They're coming in with above average in these stocks.

The Black Sea, Russia just has a tremendous amount of wheat they're putting on the market.

The market knows it's coming, and they drove prices down.

- We talked a lot about wheat.

What about the other crops?

- Well, if you look what went on with corn, you go back a couple weeks you could forward contract corn for $5.50.

It fell down to $4.90.

I think that's the rain.

I think it's improved conditions and, and what's going on in, in South America with Brazil and Argentina.

You look at soybeans, they fell off a little bit but they're wallowing around down there around $11.80, $12.

Not much happening, beans, but I think the beans and the corn got those lower prices over the last couple weeks because of the rain and improved growing conditions.

- Lots of information.

Lots of details, Kim.

Thanks a lot.

We'll see you next week.

(upbeat music) - Good morning, Oklahoma.

I'm Mark Johnson and welcome to Cow-Calf Corner.

This week's topic is grass fever in the spring checklist, or maybe we should think of this as spring fever and the spring checklist.

And the point is that in the last few days, virtually the entire state of Oklahoma has had several inches of rain.

It's been direly needed in the cattle business in a lot of different ways.

And it's the time of year when the grass is greening up literally by the minute.

We can watch grass grow right now after such a prolonged dry period that we had.

We can look around and see that our ponds are full again.

And it's really easy in the cattle business to let optimism overtake you.

And I know myself, I'm personally guilty of wanting more inventory and and thinking about stocking.

And in that instance, I remind myself to, just not so fast.

And so this week we're gonna talk about a spring checklist.

We're gonna talk about operating our cow-calf operation like a business.

We got low cow inventories, we got really good cattle prices.

We know these low cow inventories are gonna contribute to continued really good value for all categories of cattle.

Let's back off and think about still planning for the future.

And so number one, as we think about our spring checklist and operating like a business, are our bulls semen checked, have we had a breeding soundness exam done?

And if we got ample bull power on hand, as we think about turning out bulls for breeding season so that we get a calf crop born early in the calving season by next spring.

Number two.

- Have we got, if we're planning on estrus synchronization, maybe some AI breeding, do we have all those supplies on hand that we're gonna need, the semen that's actually there, the labor lined up to actually do that?

Have we actually worked and dewormed?

Have we given those pre-breeding vaccinations to our cow herd yet this spring?

And are we actually prepared for breeding season in that sense?

Have we made plans to actually apply herbicide and potentially fertilizer to those pastures so that we make sure that the grass gets ahead of the grazing pressure?

And even though we've got moisture right now and we've got grass growing, are we making sure that those pastures and those desirable grasses get ahead of that grazing pressure and that those pastures have a chance to return to health and give them a chance to recover from this extended period of drought that we've been in?

We may not be done with supplemental feeding as of yet, and we need to go out and assess the body condition score on our cows, on our heifers.

Are those replacement heifers actually at a target weight where we need 'em to be at the beginning of breeding season?

And so, the feeding may need to continue to kinda coincide with the preservation of those pastures and deferring the grazing pressure off those for a while.

And other things we think about longer term, we know we're short on hay stocks.

Really, it's not just something in the state of Oklahoma.

It's bigger scale across the country.

And so we need to be making plans now to secure that hay supply for next winter when we know we're gonna be back in a situation of feeding cows again.

So, bottom line, it's not too early to start making plans.

The rains have been a blessing.

We're very fortunate we got 'em.

We still wanna think along, a business plan for the sake of our pastures, our cattle, our breeding season, and the long term benefit to our operation of securing supplemental feed and hay supplies long term and farther out.

I hope this helps and we're blessed by the rain.

We're optimistic in this business and it is the time of year to be excited about the cattle business for good reason.

But let's plan ahead now for the future.

Thanks for joining us on Cow/Calf Corner.

- As Dr. Silva mentioned earlier, some wheat producers are baling their crop this year to take advantage of high hay prices.

Beef cattle specialist, Dr. Paul Beck, gets us up to speed on this topic.

- The current drought we're in, even though we've gotten some fairly timely rains that has really changed the way our economics or thoughts about wheat production may occur this summer.

I think our top yields and talkin' to a lot of our agronomists and wheat producers have been set, even though we got some rain.

And you know, even with good wheat prices we've got really high hay prices.

So the economic consideration on whether to cut hay, your wheat for hay, or harvest for grain, really has changed quite a bit this year.

At prices we've been hearing of $125 per bale, we have some producers talkin' 'bout harvesting wheat hay with a yield potential of about two to two and a half bales per acre, when our normal goal for wheat hay production would be about four bales to the acre, or around 5000 pounds of forage.

So $125 a bale, you'd need a 35 bushel wheat at two and a half bales an acre to make up that difference, or to make it more valuable to have your grain.

So there's gonna be a lotta wheat hay produced, even where we have the potential to have a okay wheat crop.

That bein' said, there's a lotta things that go in to feeding wheat hay.

It can be a high to moderate quality hay.

You know, easily able to meet the requirements of a lactating cow, or if we wait too long to harvest it, it can be fairly low quality with low protein, high in grain.

So the shelf life on it would be fairly low with rodents eating the grain portion.

And then you're just left with straw, you know, at the end if we're storing it for very long.

Also, when we get wheat hay that's too mature the awns can cause problems causing lumpy jaw with cows.

So you know, we recommend that we harvest this hay in the early heading stage when those awns are softer and it's gonna be slightly higher in quality, 12% to 13% crude protein and mid 50s to high 50s in TDN.

So, it makes a good quality hay product if we cut it at the right stage of maturity.

We always recommend hay testing.

In this case, we would primarily just look at our standard nutrient analysis so we know where it fits nutritionally in your system, how it matches with your cattle's nutrient requirements.

Should not be problem with many of your toxicities we see with a lot of our summer annuals.

It won't have nitrates at this stage of production.

Really, we just need to look at feeding wheat hay, trying to get it cut early as we can.

It takes a little while for it to dry when it's green.

So, about seven days is a rule of thumb for gettin' it dry enough to bale for hay.

Timing your harvest in relation to whatever weather events we've got coming is pretty important this time of year.

- For information regarding testing and analysis of your hay, fact sheets about wheat hay production and feeding, and any other questions you may have on this topic, feel free to contact your local county extension office.

- Finally, today, we find out what makes Jeff Hilst a distinguished alumnus in the Ferguson College of Agriculture, video production manager, Craig Woods, put together this story.

- [Craig] Although Jeff Hilst has never been a farmer, farming is in his blood.

- One of my favorite things was I would go to one of our family farms every summer and help with wheat harvest.

And although our immediate family didn't have a farm, that's where I really enjoyed being on the farm.

Being around the people on the farm.

- [Craig] Jeff's entrepreneurial spirit began early in life.

- Right before I was 16, my dad said, "You can waste your money that you accumulated mowing yards on a car, you can, I'll cosign a note and you can buy your first building."

And there was only one right answer to that question.

- [Craig] Jeff bought a building in Cleveland, Oklahoma, leased to the United States Postal Service, but he didn't stop there.

Throughout college, Jeff bought abandoned properties from money he continued to earn from mowing yards.

- In the wintertime, we would go buy properties on the weekend in college and we just had a good time.

- [Craig] It wasn't a surprise that he decided to double major in ag economics and accounting, but one big draw while attending OSU was becoming a member of the Alpha Gamma Rho fraternity.

- I got to live in a fraternity where most of the people were very entrepreneurial, very high risk takers.

They're all cattle farmers or farmers.

So you borrowed a lot of money and took a lot of risk.

- [Craig] While at college, Jeff began dating Lynn a girl he met in seventh grade math.

They would get married after graduation.

Both Lynn and Jeff would eventually receive their MBAs from what is now known as the Spears School of Business.

Lynn would go on to have her own career, only recently retired from the oil company, Williams.

- Jeff and Lynn make a great partnership.

They've been together a long time, even predating their, the time that they were here at OSU as students, and they're very intentional.

I've seen that as parents.

It's really great to see them work as a pair.

- [Craig] Jeff is now the principal broker and owner of the Watermark Commercial Properties.

- We do about five different things.

We have ownership of host offices in 40 some states, and then we own, we're involved in the apartment business in Tulsa and then we own quite a bit of industrial property in Tulsa.

And then my favorite thing, although it's not in Tulsa, is we're engaged in a lot of production agriculture throughout Kansas and Oklahoma.

- He's involved in agriculture primarily by acquiring land and then working with producers to rent or grow crops on that land.

So it's been fun to see him kind of make that adjustment and develop that interest.

- [Craig] And Jeff still has strong feelings about farmers and those who work in ag.

- I believe people in agriculture, they risk everything every year and take a tremendous amount of risk to feed and cloth the world and I admire that, I think most people in the city have no understanding of what people in agriculture do to provide the things we take for granted.

- [Craig] Jeff and Lynn are helping their alma mater and the next generation of ag producers, they are cornerstone donors for the New Frontiers campaign to help build a new facility for OSU agriculture.

- Jeff has been very generous with his time, with his insights and with his gifts too and to OSU agriculture.

We really appreciate what he's done.

We're really proud of what he's accomplished in his career and we look forward to seeing the many other things that he's gonna be able to do as his career advances.

- [Craig] And for current OSU students, Jeff has some advice.

- And the two things I've learned the hard way through life is I would really encourage people to take risk.

And when things look really bad and things are hard, you just cannot give up 'cause it will turn around.

And those are the best life lessons I can give to anybody - [Craig] Celebrating Jeff Hilst 2022 Ferguson College of Agriculture, distinguish alumnus.

- That'll do it for our show this week.

Remember, you can see Sunup anytime on our website.

And also follow us on YouTube and social media.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Have a great week everyone.

And remember, Oklahoma Agriculture starts at Sunup.

(upbeat music)