(upbeat music) (upbeat music continues) - Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunup.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Despite the rains we saw across parts of the state this past week, soil conditions still remain very dry.

And as producers start planting wheat they're making nitrogen decisions for both dual purpose and grain-only systems.

For some guidance, here's our soil nutrient management specialist, Dr. Brian Arnall.

- As we look at the recent weather patterns we've had some nice rainfall events.

Some of significant amounts falling across the state, which has given a lot of producers hope, optimism about having some moisture go into the wheat crop, having some moisture to finish out the pasture crop.

And so there's a lot of decisions being made right now as far as nutrient management, and how are we going to go with that for both pasture, wheat forage, and grain only.

One of the techniques that Oklahoma State University's promoted for quite a while is fall fertilization so that we can stockpile that forage.

So we have a nice growth through the fall of that Bermuda grass or fall growth, so we can stockpile going into the winter.

Typically that's done with the little shot of nitrogen, maybe some phosphorous, some potassium.

But we've gone through an exceptionally dry summer.

And so the question is nutrient price, fertilizer price, is quite high.

What should I invest in, and how and where are we at?

We still have time to get some fall growth and fall stockpiling.

Although I'm not sure that nitrogen should be our biggest concern right now, as we've not used much.

If you fertilized fully or even 50 percent in the spring or in the summer for your forage, I'm not sure we need to be worried about a lot more going in.

Make sure you have a soil test or you know, what your soil test levels are.

I would then be looking if your phosphorus and potassium is low, getting that on this fall so it's in the soil.

So if that plant has potassium that is often associated with drought stress, so being able to get that in.

Phosphorus is also associated with good root growth.

If we can keep a good biomass height, meaning four inches of crop above the ground, it will help us if we don't come out of this.

Now, if we look at our grazing, there's a lot of movement right now because we've had moisture to put in our grazing wheat, our graze out wheats.

The moisture's a good thing.

It's definitely helpful.

The thing that concerns me is if, even today, if you look at our 32-inch and our 24-inch soil moisture levels, we're not getting to depth yet.

We need five, six, seven, eight inches of slow rains to really fill that profile up to what we need to have a good season of the winter pasture.

So my recommendations right now, A, soil test if you haven't already.

Look at that phosphorus, potassium.

Take care of the phosphorus.

For that grazing wheat, one of your most important nutrients is not nitrogen, it is phosphorus.

Make sure your phosphorus levels are adequate.

If your pH is low, make sure you add some phosphorus 'cause it's too late for lime.

Nitrogen-wise, you need some nitrogen to remote good summer growth.

So I'd put down 50 units or so, but I would not go too heavy because we do not have the reserves in our soil to support big forage production yet.

If it starts raining, then we have time in the fall and winter to get on more nitrogen, but just get a little bit in the soil to make sure that that forage production can get going and we can move on.

Grain only.

This goes back to a couple blogs that I've just posted in that we have, even last year, more data support that pre-plant nitrogen is not essential for grain-only wheat.

If we have 10 to 20 pounds of residual in the soil, that's enough to get a October planted crop into the winter and out in the spring and fertilize it then.

So we have time to wait.

My concern is again, if we don't have sub soil moisture now and we don't get sub soil moisture, our yield potential will be limited again next season.

So why put all your eggs in that nitrogen basket when we have the capability to wait?

Normally I am a fan of banding phosphorus, especially when your phosphorus levels are low, banding is very efficient.

But even when your soil test near is near adequate, I would still recommend putting on a little phosphorus because our fields are highly variable.

It's an input that when it's cost-to-output is looked at, it has a lot of value.

So put on those marginal fields that have that almost average soil test pH in phosphorus, get on 50 pounds of 18-46-0, 50 pounds of 11-52, something to get phosphorus in-furrow.

If you don't have in-furrow capability and your phosphorus and pH is low, still go out there, spread phosphorus on the surface, but you need at least 30 pounds of P205.

- Which is gonna put you about that 60 or 70 pounds of product rate.

(bluegrass guitar music) (bluegrass guitar music continues) - Hello, Wes Lee, here, with this week's Mesonet Weather Report.

With most of the state in some level of drought, any week with widespread rainfall is a good week.

As is common this time of year, clouds can drop heavy rains in one location and nearby little rain occurs.

This five-day rainfall map from Wednesday, shows a lot of variability, but the heaviest rains were mostly in the central part of the state.

Most of the OKC Metro area received two inches or more.

On this consecutive days without a quarter-inch of rain map, there are two areas with a month or more showing up.

The north central tier of counties, and one of our driest parts of the state, Seminole County.

Here it has been 81 days from this past Tuesday without a significant rain.

September is the month many begin planting wheat for forage.

Looking at the percent of plant available soil moisture maps, we see some areas of concern.

On this four-inch map, our shallowest, the red areas, likely represent soils too dry to initiate seed germination.

We can also look at a deeper slice of soil, like with this surface down to the 16-inch depth map.

Here we see the reds start to cover a larger portion of the state, showing where additional rains are needed to fill the root zone.

Now here's Gary with a summer rainfall summary.

- Thanks, Wes, and good morning everyone.

Well we got another dose of rain, and of course, in some areas, a big dose of rain, very select areas.

Now, how did this impact the drought monitor map?

Let's take a look.

Well, the most noticeable area of improvement, of course, is down in Southern Oklahoma, along the Red River, where those heaviest rains fell, also out in West Central Oklahoma, where they got another dose of heavy rain.

Unfortunately, we saw that red area across northern parts of the state expand, that's the extreme drought.

And of course we have the large area across Southern and Central Oklahoma that still remains in extreme drought.

Other than that, we have areas of severe to moderate drought across the rest of the state.

We definitely need more rainfall to compound the relief efforts that this last rain gave us.

In looking at the August rainfall map from the Mesonet, we do see that heavy rain down across the Red River area.

A large area of four to nearly nine inches in those regions, all across East Central Oklahoma, four to six inches also out across parts of West Central Oklahoma at least on the radar indicated areas, we do see some of those areas from four to six inches as well.

Too much of that blue, however, up in North Central, down into East Central Oklahoma into Northeastern Oklahoma, and the light greens as well.

So those are the areas that definitely need more rainfall.

And we look at the August deficit map, we do see those areas start to shine once again up in the north central parts of the state.

Also over into Northeastern Oklahoma, down into East Central Oklahoma, but the surpluses definitely show up down along the Red River and parts of West Central and East Central Oklahoma.

But we definitely need those areas to expand up into the Northern parts of the state.

Now the summer rainfall map does look a lot better.

This is a climatological summer, June through August, but we do see those areas of deficits in Southwest Oklahoma, parts of Central and East Central Oklahoma, and even down across Southern Oklahoma, and a larger area up in northern parts of the state, especially along the Kansas border.

So these are areas that definitely need more of those reinforcements when we start to get into September to start to relieve some of the drought in those areas.

Now we can take a look at the monthly drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

This is for September.

We do see, unfortunately that drought persisting across much of the northwestern half to two-thirds of the state.

We do see some improvements possible down in the Southeastern third of the state and even some removal likely, but unfortunately, too much of the state expected to either persist or intensify through September.

Now we are starting to enter our secondary rainy season as we get into September, early October.

Hopefully we get some help in here across northern parts of the state.

Of course, all areas of the state need it.

That's it for this time.

We'll see you next time on the Mesonet Weather Report.

(upbeat music) - It's a Labor Day weekend, which means the growing season is dwindling fast.

So Derrell, what's the hay situation looking like right now?

- Both hay and forage are extremely limited, of course.

At this point in time, USDA says that over two-thirds of Oklahoma's pastures are rated poor, to very poor.

Only six percent are rated good, and zero is rated excellent at this point in time.

On the hay side, May one, hay stocks were way down, 40 something percent down from last year in the 10-year average.

USDA estimates hay production to be down as well.

So total hay supplies, which is what we started with in May, versus, and plus what we've produced, is gonna be down over 21 percent compared to the 10-year average.

So again, we have very, very limited forage supplies going into the fall at this point.

Well, the past few weeks there's been some rain in some parts of the state.

- Heavy rain in some other parts of the state, got some clouds rain clouds in the back right now.

So what would happen if it rained right now for the hay and forage situation?

- Well, you know, obviously rain helps, right?

But at this point in the growing season, warm season pastures are gonna get some additional growth at this point, so we'll get a little pasture.

I doubt that we'll make another cutting of hay at this point in time, you know, and from this point forward, as we get into the fall then moisture would help mostly cool season pastures and, you know, things like fescue in the Eastern part of the state or wheat pasture, perhaps if we, you know, if we get in some moisture to plant wheat.

- You mentioned wheat pastures.

So what are the wheat pasture prospects looking like this year, given what we had last year, which weren't really good?

- Well, you know, again it's very spotty.

A few places may have enough moisture right now to think about planting wheat early for forage, but, you know, a lot of places don't at this point in time.

And if you look at the soil moisture maps, you know, the soil profile is pretty depleted at this point in time, so wheat pasture's gonna be kind of a risky thing.

I think if we plan it, we're gonna certainly need timely and continuous rains to make that work this year.

- So, and you know, would you think that it might be a good idea for producers to keep an eye out for other, you know, winter forage?

Maybe oats, forage of that nature?

- Well, you know, again, they all have some possibilities but it comes down to moisture.

If we get some rain, then there's any number of things you can do, but, you know, at this point in time, don't have a lot of prospects in a lot of places.

- So what does all this mean for cattle markets?

- Well, you know, cattle markets are very strong right now.

In fact, feeder cattle prices are running, you know, 16 to 17% above this time last year.

And, you know, we've had large runs of cattle this summer.

So, you know, going into the fall, we may have a little bit smaller calf runs than normal because I think we've marketed some of those calves early.

At the same time, we may have less stocker demand for all the reasons we just talked about.

If we don't have a lot of forage, there won't be a lot of demand for stocker cattle.

On the cull cow side, we've had extremely large runs for the last several weeks.

More than double for the same period last year.

We continue to see fairly strong prices, but, you know, it's pretty clear that producers are still in the process of adjusting their herds to match sort of this forage situation that we find ourselves in at this point in time.

- So what does all that mean for beef prices?

- Well, beef prices are, you know, there's gonna be a lot of support going forward.

At some point in time, we're gonna see significant decreases in beef production, we think that'll happen probably in the fourth quarter of this year.

And then from there on for, you know, all of next year and beyond, we're gonna see less beef production than we have had up to this point.

- Alrighty, thanks Derrell.

Dr. Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist here at Oklahoma State University.

(upbeat music) - Dr. Kim Anderson, our crop marketing specialist is here now.

Kim, let's just kick things off with an overview of what's happening in the grain industry.

- You look at prices in the grain industry, they've stabilized, you know, corn's going up.

The others are kind of sideways, but there's still a lot of risk and uncertainty.

And as far as I'm concerned, it's probably the most potential risk and most uncertainty I've seen in about 40 years.

You've got the value of the US dollar, that index, it's up to 108.

You go back six months or so, it's down 95, 97, go back several years, back 15, 20 years, we averaged in the eighties.

So you've got that high dollar in there.

And then you've got the US economy, inflation, but the economy's around the world and inflation, and that creates uncertainty and risk in the commodity markets.

You've got outside money that came into the commodities, oh started out about six months, drove wheat prices up over $13, corn prices up, bean prices up.

And then they took that money out of these commodities, and the prices came back down.

And so you've got that open interest, which is about average now, but relatively low what it was a few months, and you've got tight world stocks for wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, the commodities around the world.

Those stocks are relatively tight.

And then you've got the drought problems all around the world this year, we're having drought, and that's reducing the harvest.

And with the tight stocks, it's higher prices and creates risk.

- That is a lot to consider as we're mapping out this picture, also Russia's war against Ukraine.

How is that continuing to impact the conversation?

- Well, from a commodity standpoint, Russia is exporting, Ukraine's exporting.

This week, a rocket hit an export elevator for Ukraine.

So it's stabilized, but that risk and uncertainties, it could blow up in a nanosecond.

And who knows what impacts you would have there.

- And also in the conversation the last couple of weeks, China and Taiwan, how's that factoring in?

- Well, it's out of the news right now.

I haven't heard much about it lately, but it's an underlying risk.

If China comes in and invades Taiwan, who knows what that's gonna do to our transportation system, to our commodity prices.

It could drive 'em up or could drive 'em down.

- With all this in mind, how are prices looking about right now?

- Well, relatively stable.

You look at wheat prices, you get into July they were down around, oh $7.80, that's been the bottom.

- They've been as high as up around $8.75.

You got, if you're looking at forward contracting for '23, you got a 25 cent basis for that July '23 contract, or you can take the current price and subtract 40 cents.

You've got corn.

Corn's been on a tear the last few weeks.

You get in there down around $5.

It got up around, oh, $7.40 or so.

Backed off a little bit.

But corn's on an uptrend, and that's because of the crop condition.

Corn crop conditions have continued to deteriorate.

That's that drought we were talking about.

And then you got soybeans.

You got soybean prices topped up to $13.13.

They've been, oh, in about $1 range over the last few weeks.

- And so what kind of guidance do you have for producers amid all of the things you talked about underlying uncertainty?

- Well, there's a lot of risk in the market, and that means you've got higher input costs.

That's gonna cost you more to produce a commodity.

You may wanna change commodities.

Work with your Extension economists in penciling out which commodity gives you the highest odds of a positive return.

You're a farmer.

You've gotta produce.

You've gotta have commodity to sell.

And don't worry about price.

Worry about getting a quality product on the market, and the market will pay you a profit, at least in the long run.

- Well, great context, Kim.

We're glad we have you.

And we'll see you again next week.

(upbeat music) - Good morning, Oklahoma, and welcome to Cow-Calf Corner.

This week, we continue our series on the question of retained ownership, and a topic that's came up for a lot of cow-calf operations that typically sell at weaning over the past few weeks.

Given some considerations we have about drought and early weaning calves.

As we move on past those first two weeks, this is the week that we talk about beef quality grades and specifically what they are.

So a USDA beef quality grade gets assigned to a beef carcass to indicate the tenderness, juiciness, and flavor of cooked beef.

Specifically, if we think about what a USDA grader is looking at whenever they assign those quality grades to beef carcasses, two primary things.

The degree of marbling in the ribeye at the interface between the 12th and 13th rib of a hanging beef carcass, where that carcass is actually gonna be ribbed open.

And the maturity that they would put that beef carcass in.

We want to address the maturity concept first because the A maturity group that most calf fed and yearlings that go through finishing are gonna fall into basically is designed to catch cattle that are from about nine months of age to 30 months of age.

So I always say, regardless, in conventional beef production, regardless of when we send those calves to the finishing yard, if we're starting off with lighter weight calves that maybe haven't been turned into yearlings or long yearlings in either case, conventional beef production, we tend to feed those cattle or finish 'em on a high energy corn based diet for at least 150 days.

The objective is to tap their genetic potential to marble.

And so they're gonna come out of finishing and reach their compositional endpoint within that A maturity group.

So in that sense, the big thing that drives the quality grade of A maturity cattle is gonna be their marbling score.

Now, marbling scores are gonna be assigned by a USDA grader and possibly with a little instrumental supplementation information going along with it.

That marbling score is gonna correspond to a specific yield grade.

What are the best potential quality grades that we see assigned to A maturity cattle?

Prime is our highest quality grade.

The Prime quality grade means we should have the most tenderness, juiciness, and flavor, and eating satisfaction out of a cut of cooked beef.

The quality grade of Choice falls just below that.

The quality grade of Select falls just below that, and the Standard quality grade would actually be our lowest quality grade for A maturity cattle.

If we take a look at the accompanying chart, we see that Prime can be split into thirds.

The quality grade of Choice can be split into thirds, based on marbling score.

That has significance because if we are selling fed cattle on a carcass value basis, there's a lot of the quality based premium branded programs.

Think something like CAB or Certified Angus Beef, that one of the specs to certify there is being in the upper 2/3 of Choice or actually Prime.

So as we look at grids, carcass value marketing, over time historically, quality grade is the big driver of economic incentive that gives beef carcasses more value.

So obviously, the genetic potential of beef cattle to marble is gonna be really important.

Because when you think about marbling as a fat deposit, it's one of the fat deposits we find in a beef carcass.

- [Speaker 1] But it's one we can't really see in the live animal itself.

When we talk about finishing cattle to a compositional endpoint, that compositional endpoint is based more on external fat thickness, that indicates to us that they should have that marbling inside that we hope is there.

So the whole finishing process itself, is to get a high energy diet in those cattle, to tap that genetic potential to marble.

So the amount of time spent on feed, as that increases, we're going to tend to drive up quality grades on beef carcasses, and just the genetic potential with inbreeds and between breeds is a big player in that variability and genetic potential to actually reach the higher quality grades.

I hope this helps and thanks for joining us this week on "Cow-Calf Corner."

(upbeat music) - Finally, today a group of students from Tulsa public schools, visited the OSU campus recently, to get a small dose of the big realities of adulthood.

Here Sunup's, Curtis Hair.

(students chattering) - [Ron] What you see going on behind us, is something called "Reality Check."

It's a really cool program, put together by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service.

Where they, just kind of, arbitrarily give kids a station in life, with a salary and all this stuff.

And they have to go around and make budget.

- [Curtis Hair] Ron Cox is an OSU Extension, family and marriage specialist.

He says the workshop is designed to help these young students understand, well, the realities of adulthood.

- [Ron] So all the different tables, all the different volunteers, are different stations.

Like their insurance, or it's housing, or it's cars, or it's entertainment.

There's even a chance, right.

Where you know, you can get an accident and have to go to the hospital.

Or you get a bonus because you hit the lottery, or something like that.

But different things that happen to help kids understand the value of a dollar, how to make a budget, but also the importance of education.

- [Curtis Hair] This workshop is a piece of a broader outreach program, for minority families, that aims to increase parental involvement in schools, academic achievement, and self sufficiency and reinforce positive relationships, to limit negative behaviors.

- [Ron] It's called "United, we can."

or in Spanish, "Unidos, podemos."

So you can't really tell a kid who to be friends with, but if you can create activities, so they're together, they're having fun.

They just naturally start bonding.

But it's with kids who are all in a program, all kind of going in a positive direction.

So you see these kids behind us, are having a great time.

They're at the same time that they're learning about finances, they're forming relationships with each other, right?

That those relationships help promote the positive kind of behavior and attitudes that we want to see in kids, that will lead them to success.

- [Curtis Hair] Before the "Reality Check" workshop, students who were all from Tulsa public schools, got the chance to tour the OSU campus and learn about various career paths offered at the university.

And that chance made participant Milton Hamilton's day.

- [Milton] Going to different places and learning about new jobs.

Like new opportunities, you probably never thought of, it's been pretty fun most of the time.

We got to go to different places.

Time to time we got to relax, like during the yoga session.

- [Curtis Hair] For the "Reality Check" workshop, each student is given a worksheet detailing their adult self's lifestyle and occupation.

Whether they're a single construction worker, making about 35 grand a year, or the sole income provider of a family of four, just about every scenario is on the table.

For Ruby Escalera, her exercise was a little, well frustrating.

- So we're supposed to be simulating, like what's it like living as an adult.

And I'm not very happy, because my husband doesn't do anything.

I have to pay.

Why do I have to pay for everything?

Why can't I have a second income?

I have two incomes.

It's a two income family.

Why do I have to pay for everything?

- [Curtis Hair] The challenges of being an adult, I guess.

- Why would I marry a deadbeat?

Why did this game think so low of me?

- [Ron] When I start going through something like this, I get a much better understanding of what my parents have been going through, you know, day after day, week after week, month after month, taking care of me.

So it gives me a whole new perspective of how to appreciate my parents, which then can have impact on the family cohesion.

- [Curtis Hair] It also makes them think about something else.

Their future.

- Learn my priorities.

Don't be a correctional officer.

I don't want to work in a prison.

I make no money.

Don't make do the right thing and don't have kids.

My God forbid, my poor friend is a single mother.

Single mother and broke.

(gentle music) - [Curtis Hair] In Penn county, I'm Curtis Hair.

- That'll do it for us, this week.

Remember you can see us anytime on our website, Sunup.okstate.edu and also follow us on YouTube and social media.

I'm Lyndall Stout.

Have a great week everyone.

And remember Oklahoma agriculture starts at sunup.

(gentle music) (gentle music continues) (gentle music crescendos) (gentle music decrescendos) (guitar strumming)