The Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

This is weather world.

Hello and welcome to Weather World.

Today is Friday, February 6th, 2026.

I'm your host, Brendan Schmalenberger.

Joined alongside me is forecaster Marissa Ferger.

Marissa had a couple snow showers today, a little bit cold, but with this Arctic front coming through, it's not looking too good in terms of warmth tomorrow.

No, tomorrow is going to be brutally cold.

It's going to be quite windy.

Actually dangerous to be outside tomorrow, but we have some slight improvement as we go into the day on Sunday.

All right.

Perfect.

Well, I'm looking forward to hearing the rest of your forecast.

Also coming up, make sure you stick around.

We have Ben Reppert with the extended Rob Lydick with the two week and question five for trivia 2026.

But first, here's Marissa and we all know it's been quite cold across the Commonwealth the past few weeks, and there have been some icy rivers and lakes.

But how about swimming pools?

This picture was sent in today from Anne Toole, who lives in Wilkes-Barre.

And look at this water coming down the slide.

And you can see the slick icicles that have formed from this.

And guess what?

This isn't going anywhere.

At least in as we go into the next couple of days, because it's going to be quite cold starting tonight through Sunday morning.

The National Weather Service has issued extreme cold warnings for most of the commonwealth southwestern Pennsylvania in a cold weather advisory.

And that's because dangerous chill is on its way.

And it's coming here from the Hudson Bay.

You can see how cold it is in this part of Canada today.

Trout Lake four below zero.

And yes, that is what some places are going to see tomorrow as far as high temperatures are concerned in northwestern Pennsylvania today.

Nowhere near that.

We're about ten degrees below average for this time in February.

Upper teens, lower 20s, getting down to or getting to the lower 30s in southeastern Pennsylvania and winds.

Not too bad today.

It actually didn't feel quite bad out there today, but that is changing.

Winds are starting to pick up across the west, and they're going to continue to do so as we go through the overnight hours and into the day tomorrow.

And wind gusts could be as high as 40mph in many locations.

So it's going to just feel very blustery out there.

We do have a front moving through right now and it is spawning a few snow showers, mainly right now in eastern Pennsylvania.

Actually, this morning it caused a problem on I-79 out in Butler County, where they had to close some of the lanes of both directions of the highway because of the snow.

But that is cleared out of the west.

But there is another round that's going to be moving through.

You can see that right there.

Just moving into southern Ontario.

This is actually the Arctic front that will push through tonight after sunset.

And as that moves through Pennsylvania, we may actually see a few snow squalls.

And then behind it those temperatures are going to plunge and the winds are going to start to rise.

And this is all part of a system located here in the Great Lakes.

Again, a big ridge of high pressure out to the west.

Really not much to talk about there other than very warm conditions where once again into the middle 60s across parts of Colorado, upper 50s in Montana, we're talking 80 degrees across parts of Texas.

We're not seeing that here again.

Our cold is going to be spilling in from Canada, but it's going to be short lived this time.

That, at least, is the good news as we go into this upcoming weekend.

So here comes the system that's moving through tonight.

A weak warm front moving through this afternoon that brought in some of the snow showers.

Here's the Arctic front.

It rolls through the state overnight tonight.

You see the tightly packed isobars.

That indicates how windy it's going to be tomorrow.

Blowing snow I think is going to be a problem across parts of western Pennsylvania with how windy it's going to be.

High pressure tries to settle in.

There's going to be a weak system.

Pushing to our Southwest on Sunday.

Could bring a few snow showers there.

Otherwise I think lots of sunshine.

Still breezy, but the winds are going to be waning.

So for tonight and into tomorrow, there is a wind advisory for parts of the central mountains to the south and east because of how gusty it is going to be.

And when you combine that with the temperatures, it's just going to feel brutally cold out there.

So we're having another Arctic invasion tonight as this cold front moves through from the northwest.

Going to see some squalls, likely about 6:00 tonight in the far northwestern counties.

By the time you get to the southern Laurel Highlands, that will be right around midnight.

Eastern Pennsylvania.

Just a few scattered snow showers getting down into the single digits.

Lower teens in the east.

Below zero across the west.

Daytime highs tomorrow only getting a few degrees above zero across the west.

Eastern Pennsylvania.

Single digits, lower teens.

But when you combine this with wind gusts over 40mph, it's going to feel like it's below zero out there.

Despite the fact that we're actually going to be seeing a little bit of sunshine.

So a dangerous day to be outside.

If you go out, don't leave any skin exposed.

Sunday A chance of a few flakes in the southwest as that one system swings by there.

Elsewhere, lots of sunshine.

Temperatures notch up a bit, the winds die down a bit.

Slight improvement, but still on the cold side.

We'll be back with the extended coming up.

We've reached the end of week one in our 2026 trivia contest.

Here's hoping you'll ace the investigation in question number five, a 2025 severe weather episode in southern Michigan was a challenge for survey teams working to assess the damage and estimate the wind speed after the storms.

What was the problem?

Was it a fallen?

Trees were all removed?

B a home was already repaired, c a barn burned down, or d the surveyors got lost.

Now it's time to submit your answers to this week's questions.

Visit our website.

Weather.

And click on the trivia 2026 link.

Your entry must be submitted by 7 p.m.

Eastern on Monday to count.

Good luck and join us again next week for more trivia right here on Weather World.

As we head into the extended forecast period looking at next week, we will be crawling out of the big Arctic chill from the weekend and actually getting into a moderating trend for the first part of next week.

We're not going to be warm or busting out the shorts by any means, but a few days where we could actually go above freezing and potentially above average.

Let's start by taking a look at the water vapor imagery, which shows the latest charge of Arctic air into the eastern United States, even going down into the Deep South once again.

Florida cold again this morning, and the continuation of the persistent ridge out west, where it has been keeping a lot of the mountains of the Intermountain West snowless recently.

Signs of changes, though, as we head into next week and we'll show you why here on the upper air pattern, starting this first thing tomorrow morning, just to show you where the Arctic chill is coming from this weekend and, well, Arctic chill.

It's coming from the Arctic flow pattern, all this cold air pouring down into Pennsylvania straight from up near the North Pole.

So the weekend, that's the really chilly stuff.

By Monday when we start this extended forecast period, the cold colors are still around.

We're still in northwesterly flow, but by this point, there's much more of a Pacific flavor in this pattern as opposed to purely Arctic.

So this kicks off a moderating trend as we head into early next week.

And by Tuesday and Wednesday, our flow actually tries to go westerly or potentially southwesterly.

So this is where I think temperatures can pop above freezing and maybe even above average Tuesday into Wednesday.

There's also a weak disturbance that will provide some light precipitation at that point.

And that's really the only meaningful precipitation next week.

At the end of the week, it looks like we try to chill down once again, although even with this look, well, I think we go back below average.

There's still more of a Pacific influence compared to an Arctic one, so no days next week look as cold or colder than what we've been experiencing.

Monday is a frigid start, though many of us starting out in the single digits staying below freezing.

But then Tuesday and Wednesday things start to moderate.

Southwestern Pennsylvania, in particular on Tuesday afternoon could pop potentially well into the 40s.

Here comes that system from the southwest.

I think it will be mild enough for some rain showers, believe it or not, in southern Pennsylvania Tuesday into Wednesday, some snow showers possible across the north and then to end next week, we turn drier again, but as high pressure builds back in, will turn colder and it will be on the breezy to windy side by this point as well.

So let's summarize that for you here in the extended forecast.

Frigid start to Monday and a cold finish by Tuesday.

Though temperatures in parts of Pennsylvania getting into the 40s struggling still in the northeastern corner of the state, light rain showers move in in the southern part of the state late in the day, and some light snow across the north, where there could be a light accumulation.

Wednesday.

Drying out, still around to maybe a bit above average, and then we turn colder and breezy again to round out the week.

Maybe just enough low level moisture lingering for a few snow showers north and west by that point.

Rob has week two trends when we come right back.

It's time for week two trends.

The conclusion of our Friday forecast frenzy, where we don't give the specifics that Ben just told you about for next week in the extended forecast.

But we do assess that risk of temperatures being above or below average, or seeing some areas of precipitation going out into week two, which will now take us into the second half of February.

More on how we're going to do that in just a moment.

But first, we'd like to set that benchmark for what average is at this point in the year.

And so now we're climbing out of that climatological minimum.

So these values actually increasing at a rate of about a degree maybe two degrees per week.

So starting to climb out and into springtime, as we see by this period we're looking at temperatures averaging highs in the mid 30s in the cold spots, low to mid 40s in southeast Pennsylvania.

Predominantly temperatures in the 20s for overnight lows.

So keep those values in mind as we assess that risk.

For temperatures being above or below the thresholds.

We do that by taking a look at a bunch of different products, one of which is a spaghetti plot.

Take one forecast model run, tweak its initial conditions, run that anywhere from 30 to 50 times.

Plot all the solutions on this map.

Those are the individual color lines.

And then we average things out with the white line, kind of the mean of those solutions to kind of tease out what the overall pattern is, and look at the overall trend for how the pattern will evolve with time.

By the time we get to the beginning of this period, which is next Saturday, Valentine's Day, there's a good agreement that the trough placement will be just off the New England coast.

I think we'll be in a northwest component to the flow, so our temperatures may still be a bit below average to begin.

The period could be either side of average as we go into Sunday and Monday.

But there is some agreement here that overall we see the blue lines beginning to retreat northward.

And overall, I think the ridge will actually start to take hold across the eastern US by the time we get to maybe Tuesday of week two.

So we're going to average things out.

That spaghetti is getting really tangled.

Here's just a look at the upper air temperature anomalies.

And in fact, good agreement between a bunch of different ensemble products that the ridge placement would be over the eastern US by Tuesday, even lingering perhaps into Wednesday.

So a couple of warmer than average days, and then we're getting farther out in time.

So it's really hard to pinpoint exactly a temperature anomalies.

But I do think that there's a chance that the cold air kind of works its way back in by the end of week two.

But certainly the message here tonight, not constantly cold like we've been for much of this winter so far.

So a breakdown of the forecast is like this.

Remember, the deeper the color, the greater the confidence.

I've got medium confidence and a cooler than average day to begin next weekend could be either side of average by the time we get to the end of the weekend or beginning of week two, but I've got high confidence in a warmer than average day.

Tuesday the 17th.

Still medium confidence and staying warmer than average through the middle of the week, and perhaps a cool day to close out the period.

So the message here not as cold.

The pattern favors temperature, ups and downs.

A few chances for precipitation, but it's really hard to pinpoint the timing and type at this point.

That'll do it for week two trends.

We're back in a moment with more.

And that was the scene across much of Pennsylvania throughout the day, a few flakes flying throughout the Commonwealth, but now we're tracking a Arctic front that's going to be driving temperatures near to below zero.

Across the Commonwealth.

We're going to see squalls likely from 6 to 12 tonight into early tomorrow morning across western Pennsylvania.

The scattered snow showers stick around a little bit later into the night.

And even as you're waking up tomorrow morning in eastern Pennsylvania, but the winds are going to be increasing rapidly with gusts over 30 miles an hour across western Pennsylvania tonight.

The winds continue to increase throughout the day.

Tomorrow.

Gusts over 40mph across eastern Pennsylvania as this clipper system works off to the east, even though our temperatures will be in the single digits and low double digits, we're still going to be seeing wind chills below zero because of how gusty those winds are.

And for Sunday, some slight improvement.

A quick hitting clipper system across southwestern Pennsylvania.

A few flakes there, but still gusty.

A little bit more sunshine across eastern Pennsylvania then western Pennsylvania.

So Brendan, it's another weekend to keep the parka handy.

Yeah, I was going to say I was hoping the plan would put away my winter jacket and even all the rest of my winter gear soon, but not anytime soon, I guess.

Not at all.

Well, thank you so much, Filippo for your forecast and thank you for watching.

Make sure you come on in next week.

We'll be having some more trivia questions as well as hashtag headlines.

Make sure to get in any remaining trivia answers in by tonight.

But from all of us here at Weather World, have a wonderful rest of your