Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

This is weather world.

Good evening and welcome to Weather World on this Tuesday, September 30th, last day of the month.

I'm your host, Luke Snyder, joined by forecaster Quinn Mulhern.

Now, Quinn, I don't know about you, but I feel like September has been quite a warm month here in Pennsylvania.

Are we going to be seeing any fall weather approaching as we get into October?

I think especially over the next couple of days, as we enter October, we're finally going to start to cool down a little bit and it will feel much more seasonable out there.

Well, I'm very excited to seeing those cooler temperatures.

Pumpkin spice lattes for sure.

Up next we have water watch on our show later on this evening, but following following after the opening, right now we'll be having Quinn Mulhern with his forecast.

Thank you so much Luke.

Yeah.

As we talked about, we're really going to start to see a little bit of a change in how it feels out there.

And it's going to feel much more fall like.

And one sign that we know that fall's approaching and the temps are starting to cool down is when we see this fog roll into the valleys.

You can see in this time lapse of Beaver Stadium this morning, that fog was very dense across State College and among other places as well.

We had that fog in the valleys and it quickly burned off come the afternoon.

And you can see that we were left with just a few high clouds that were pushing off towards the east, and those high clouds were associated with Hurricane Imelda, which is going to be pushing off out into the Atlantic.

And we won't really see much of an influence from that as we go through the next couple of days.

In terms of Imelda's influence, we do have those high clouds still in southeastern Pennsylvania, and I would expect those to maybe stick around later through tonight, but come tomorrow, those will be well on their way out of here.

And nothing on radar at all.

You can see it's very dry out there.

Temperatures in the upper 70s for most even a few low 80s across western Pennsylvania and even in southeastern Pennsylvania as well.

So feeling very warm out there today.

But we're really going to start to see a shift to more of that fall like weather for your day tomorrow.

Dew points right now in the 40s for many across the Commonwealth.

So it's very dry air and that's making it feel rather comfortable out there.

So we're not dealing with any of the humidity like we would during the summertime.

And speaking of summertime heat, we can see that that's really only confined to the southern part of the country right now.

So really seasonable across the entirety of the nation, we could see that generally low to upper 80s across the central portions of the state, cooler out west.

And you'll notice that in the southeastern portions of the country, that's where our active weather is right now, we can see that we have our two hurricanes.

Right now we have Imelda, which is off the Florida coast, and then Humberto, which is out further out into the Atlantic.

And that's going to be pushing away as well.

But we're going to be dealing with the influence of those, at least their cloud influence for the next few hours or so.

As those push out to sea, we could see that there is some shower activity, especially associated with Imelda encroaching on the Carolina coast.

And then most of those thunderstorms and stronger winds are off the coast right now.

So luckily, aside from a few rip current risks and swell impacts along the eastern seaboard, we won't be seeing much influence from those storms.

Now, there is a cold front across Pennsylvania right now.

You wouldn't be able to tell because it's rather moisture starved.

We don't have a lot of precipitation with this cold front, but it will be bringing the temperatures down as this area of high pressure off and Ontario shifts southward.

And we're going to see it build across New England and the entirety of the northeast.

And that's going to leave us with very pleasant conditions, especially as our storms shift out over the Atlantic.

And come Wednesday night and into Thursday, we are just going to be dealing with the influence of that high pressure.

So really no chances of precipitation over the next couple of days as that high pressure really sticks around and we won't even see much in terms of cloud cover either, except for maybe a few high clouds passing over the Commonwealth for your Thursday.

So for the rest of tonight, we're going to have a cool close to September.

We're finally going to be bringing in some of that more fall-like air.

And with that, as that air moves in from the north, we're going to be pushing those clouds from Imelda out of the Commonwealth as well.

So we're just going to be left with some filtered moonlight across southeastern Pennsylvania, but clear skies off to the north.

And with those clear skies, that's when you're going to really begin to have that radiational cooling process take over.

So we're going to see temperatures drop into the low 40s across the northern tier, with a few mid 50s across the lower Susquehanna Valley.

But for tomorrow, that's where we're going to see some of our high temperatures react as well to that more fall like air pushing in.

We could see temperatures very seasonal, with no location really getting warmer than the upper 70s.

Excuse me, the mid 70s.

We could see the higher elevations will be stuck in the 60s for most of the day on Wednesday, as we still have that northerly wind.

And look at this.

Not much in terms of cloud cover, but with that and those clear skies overnight, I'd expect lows to drop into the mid 30s for some locations and we can experience some patchy frost overnight.

So for your Thursday, we're going to cool it down a little bit more.

With temperatures in the mid 60s for most, a few upper 70s as you work your way into Western Pennsylvania, but overall rather seasonable.

We'll be back in a moment with more.

Water.

Watch is our bi weekly segment where we add some context into recent precipitation, or lack thereof in Pennsylvania, and then we look ahead to what we could see in the rain gauges over the course of the next ten days.

And of course, if you've been here in Pennsylvania during the month of September, you know that it has been a dry month until we got to last week.

Here's a look at those precipitation totals for the month.

And with the lack of rain today, this is probably what will go down in the record books for precipitation that's been observed at these sites.

The top number actually.

What's in the gauge?

The bottom number, the average for the month of September.

Most sites in the tan indicating where they were below average for September.

The greens here a little bit closer to average.

And this green and Dubois indicates where that was really the only observing site, at least on this map, that was above average for the month.

It's worth noting, though, that these values, most of that rain fell in just a 3 or 4 day window last week.

Had it not been for last week, we would certainly be much more below average across the Keystone State for a different context.

In addition to that, you can actually see that days with measurable precipitation on the top number here, days with over a 10th of an inch of precipitation, the bottom number.

So adding context on how much rain fell and how many days over the course of that month.

And so really the three inches we saw on say, college fell in just four days really last month.

Same thing in Williamsport, about five days in Bradford and Dubois over the course of September.

Another visual depiction of that shows this bar graph over the last 31 days, featuring dryness pretty much all the way through that first almost three quarters of the month until we got to last week, where we actually had some appreciable rainfall, even a day where we did have over an inch.

Finally, last week in the gauge and now entering yet another dry stretch, you can visually see when the faucet even shut off going back to July.

So we actually had some locally heavy rain in parts of Pennsylvania to begin summer.

It actually turned out to be kind of a wet start to the summer season.

The faucet was shut off though right around the beginning of August.

Just a couple of wet days there in mid August or so, and then otherwise we've been dry ever since with just a clustering of days last week bringing us some rainfall, keeping us from being too far below average for the month.

But in general, many days feature dry conditions here in Pennsylvania.

Hence why the Drought Monitor shows an expansion of the moderate drought now covering most of central and northern Pennsylvania.

Seeing some severe drought in western Pennsylvania with extreme drought in the West Virginia Panhandle.

Despite you're not seeing any color here in southeast Pennsylvania, but I do think it is abnormally dry.

And I think we'll see an expansion of the yellow in southeast Pennsylvania as we get the latest data comes in around Thursday this week widening out the view.

You can see we're not alone.

Dry conditions also across New England, where they've got an even wider swath of severe and extreme drought all the way up into Maine.

We see severe drought stretching into portions of the Midwest and Ohio and Mississippi River valleys, as well severe and extreme drought, expanding northward through areas that really weren't impacted by much of a monsoon this season.

So the southwest into the Intermountain West as well, seeing a widespread swath of severe and extreme drought, the only part of the country that has actually seen some appreciable precipitation as of recent has been the Plains.

We can actually see that on the soil moisture anomalies snapshot here from yesterday, showing where we've got some wet soils in parts of Nebraska and Kansas and even parts of the Dakotas.

Meanwhile, very dry soils from Maine stretching through Pennsylvania, the Midwest into parts of the Corn Belt also can see a signature of the lack of tropical influences along the Gulf Coast and Carolina coastline as well.

This, of course, has impacted fall foliage.

Here's a look at the Dcnr's latest fall foliage report.

This is in effect until October 1st, all the way through tomorrow, seeing some of the yellow counties indicating where they're approaching a peak color PA Grand Canyon area seeing peak color.

And I suspect when the latest data comes out tomorrow or on Thursday, that we'll see an expansion of the yellow shadings, as most of the leaves are just dying and falling off the trees with a lack of precipitation, at least until we had last week here in the Keystone State.

Looking ahead to the next ten days, I see a continuation of this pattern.

We've had a persistent ridge across the eastern US, meanwhile, predominant trough just off the west coast, and I don't think we'll see much change once that weak boundary kind of crosses tonight, surface high pressure will take charge and that will remain in place all the way through the upcoming weekend.

We'll see a seasonable spell.

And then I think our temperatures will begin to climb above average again, going all the way through the weekend and into Monday of next week.

Now we see a trough begin to approach.

Just ahead of that is where we'll find a cold front at the surface.

I think that will finally bring us a chance of some precipitation, maybe Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but how much moisture it has to work with is very uncertain at this point.

Some models also highlighting that the threat for maybe another cold front or a coastal storm going into late next week, but much more uncertainty that far out in time.

Other models actually have high pressure build back in, so still remains to be seen if we'll have multiple chances for precipitation next week, I think our first chance will come by Tuesday.

Here's a breakdown of our moisture tracker, showing a lack of color over Pennsylvania through the weekend and into Monday of next week, indicating dry conditions.

We finally see the air moisten up by the time we get to Tuesday, and maybe a chance of some precipitation here Tuesday into Wednesday.

Again, how much moisture it has to work with.

Still uncertain this far out, this particular model gives us the chance for a coastal storm late next week, others keeping us on the dry side.

So we'll keep that chance in there and hope for maybe at least one more chance for precipitation late next week.

But the Weather Prediction Center, they put out this product here showing the chance for or how much rainfall we could expect to potentially see in our gauge over the next seven days.

You see dryness from Texas all the way through the northeastern US, really not expecting much in terms of precip in the gauge here in Pennsylvania.

So keep that in mind for your outdoor plans and keep those mums watered this time of year.

So our water watch outlook goes through Friday, October 10th.

I think it will be dry through Monday.

With high pressure over the northeast slowly departing eastward.

It will be seasonable then turning warm again through the weekend and Monday.

I think next Tuesday and Wednesday could be our first potential chance for some rainfall.

How much moisture is uncertain at this point?

And then late next week we'll be watching for another precipitation chance.

But a lot of uncertainty this far out.

And that will do it for tonight's edition of Water Watch.

Stay with us.

We've got a recap of the short range forecast up next.

As well.

Like Quinn said, we do see those seasonable and fall like conditions start to make their way throughout Pennsylvania over the next few days.

That first taste is going to be later on this evening.

We have that last end of a cold front making its way through, impacting the more northern tier of Pennsylvania overnight, seeing cooler conditions, especially to our north of I-80.

We've seen the coolest temperatures, but we have clear skies as well, so we're seeing lots of moonlight making its way throughout the region later on this evening.

And tomorrow is our first real taste of those fall like conditions.

High pressure resides right to our northeast over the New England area, so we're going to be seeing clear skies for many across the state.

Some high clouds are going to be arriving in the north.

Yeah, northwestern portion of the area.

But we do see seasonable conditions again, persisting temperatures around average in the upper upper 60s and lower 70s.

And Thursday is going to be our chance for the coolest temperatures over the next few days.

We see a mix of sun and clouds in the western portion of Pennsylvania, but it's really going to be the coolest day that we see for many with comfortable and seasonable conditions.

Conditions persisting.

Looking at the mid to upper 60s for many and you know, a couple areas touching the 70s as we move through the forecast, but definitely really going to be feeling like a true start to October.

Yeah, it's nice to have that little brief stint of fall coming over the next couple of days, but I do worry that maybe over the longer term we might see a return of the warmth.

So we got to enjoy the fall weather.

Absolutely.

Well, thank you so much for recapping tonight.

Look, on tomorrow night's show, we will have another edition of Weather Wise, as well as the extended forecast, which will take you through the first full week of October.

Thank you all for joining tonight and have a