The Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at Penn State.

This is weather world.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Weather World on this Tuesday, November 18th, 2025, I'm Rob Lydick alongside Kristen Spallone with the forecast tonight.

Kristen finally not so windy today, but it is gray and in some places it's precipitating.

Yeah.

Have a quick system that's coming through tonight.

Rob won't be too much of a major impact for most, but could be a little bit of wintry precipitation, especially across northern Pennsylvania tonight.

Okay, we'll get the details from Christian in just a minute.

Also coming up on tonight's show, we'll stick with that wintry precipitation theme for our first edition of the Season of Snow Risk, where we'll look at our potential for snow going out ten days.

But first, here's Christian.

Thanks very much, Rob.

And for many, it was a gray day in an increasingly gray day.

Starting out with some sunshine this morning, especially across eastern Pennsylvania, but gradually seeing the clouds take over across the Commonwealth from west to east.

You can see this well on our state college camera here.

Lots of sunshine early today, and then this big gray deck of low clouds comes in.

And by the mid afternoon, many in central and especially southwestern Pennsylvania, we're seeing a bit of precipitation in some areas, at least some sprinkles of precipitation.

It is quite dry outside, which means that some of this precipitation that you're seeing on the satellite and radar imagery isn't reaching the ground just yet.

This is what we call virga, especially in some of these areas across the northern edge of the system that's starting to come through.

You can see some of the precipitation values that we have on the radar, even starting to fizzle out by later this afternoon.

And this will continue to be the theme as we go into the rest of tonight.

We'll see the system move to the East, impact everyone in the state, but it will be a pretty moisture starved system, meaning we won't have too much precipitation associated with it.

Although I think some, especially in the normally cooler areas of northern Pennsylvania, could be a bit of frozen precipitation as this system comes through.

The reason for this is our temperatures are in the lower to middle 30s, especially across the northern tier north of I-80.

Not quite cold enough yet to really get a solid accumulating snowfall.

But as we go into tonight, the sun will go down.

We'll see temperatures lower, which could lead to a quick coating to an inch and some of the normally cooler areas across the north.

As we zoom out, we can see this system coming through and there's a lot more precipitation off to the south.

We'll see some areas, especially south of the PA Turnpike, which will tap into a bit of steadier rainfall as we go throughout the evening hours, which could lead to some headaches if you're traveling out tonight.

And again, the wintry precipitation across the north.

Zooming out across much of the United States, we can see this system that we're tracking in our area is really one of the only major weather players throughout the country starting to keep an eye on another system that you can see out across the southwest, which will start to form our next system, which will be tracking by the end of this week.

But over the next two days, we won't be seeing too much precipitation.

After this current system gets out of the area.

You can see in our temperature map this sharp gradient associated with the system that's coming through our area.

Some above average temperatures to the south and the southern plains and around seasonable conditions as you go north across the northern Plains on our evening surface map, you can see the weak low pressure system that's skirting by the area as we go through this evening.

As it does so, we'll continue to see the precipitation up until about dawn tomorrow.

Before that moves out and high pressure settles in.

I think it's mainly a gray day tomorrow, but could see some sunshine, especially in northern Pennsylvania, through some broken clouds.

And by Thursday, as the next system shapes up over the central plains and starts to move east, I think a lot more cloud cover comes into Pennsylvania, and that leads to quite a cloudy day, but still dry as we go into Thursday.

Here's how the clouds and precipitation look from one of our high resolution models.

Tonight.

You can see the heavier precipitation off towards the south, and some of the winter precipitation and some snowfall or wintry mix that starts going across the northern tier and particularly across northeastern Pennsylvania as we get into the later night.

Tonight, I think this model could be overdoing a bit of the intensity of the precipitation, but the main point is some coatings and some slick travel is possible as we go throughout the evening tonight and into parts of early tomorrow morning before this system moves out of the area.

And we're mainly left with cloud cover and again, a few pockets of sunshine as we go into later Wednesday and eventually by Thursday.

So for tonight again, in the normally cooler areas to the north of this blue contour has the best chance for snow.

Generally, a coating to an inch is possible in some localized locations tonight, most not seeing any frozen precipitation, especially south of I-80 where you're stuck with mainly rain showers and maybe a few flakes mixing in in some locations.

By Wednesday, that system will move off the eastern seaboard and we'll see sunnier conditions take over with high pressure.

But still a lot of clouds, especially across western Pennsylvania.

And that theme continues as we go into Thursday.

Another system starts developing to, well, to our west, and that allows for a lot of cloud cover to stream into Pennsylvania.

Some sunshine across the northeastern portion of the state, temperatures topping out around 50 degrees in the warmest spots and generally seasonable for many on Thursday.

Snow risk is up next.

It's time for the first snow risk of the season.

Now, typically during the spring, summer, and fall, we have a segment on every other Tuesday or so called Water Watch, where we look at our chances for precipitation over the next ten days, and recap how we're doing in the gauges so far.

But in the winter months, we focus on snow and that risk for an impactful snowfall in Pennsylvania.

So we'll get into that in just a moment.

But I always like to begin, especially the first snow risk of the season, by looking at what a typical snow season looks like in Pennsylvania and that average annual snowfall.

The sweet spots are in the Laurel Highlands and close to the Lake Erie shoreline, so we're gearing up for that winter weather outlook that we'll have on the show on Thursday, setting the benchmark here with 142in for a typical season, and Laurel summit about 105in in Erie for a typical season, 75in in Bradford, 44in in both Pittsburgh and State College.

Less off to the south and east, so Harrisburg about 30in for a typical season, about 23in in Philadelphia.

But if you were in Pennsylvania last year, you know, it was certainly not a typical winter.

It was once again a dud in many locations, the exceptions being Erie, which was a few inches above average, Bradford 87in.

So they were above average by about a foot or so, but less off to the east.

State College seeing only less than 50%, actually, of what we should have seen for the season.

In fact, I think the biggest snow last season was only 3 or 4in in State College, about 15in in Williamsport and Harrisburg, and less than ten inches last season in Philadelphia.

So not great for snow lovers.

Despite the fact that the lake effect snow machine was cranking early in the season across the northwest, we have had some snow already, though some cities have fallen in our annual snowflake contest.

Remember, we're looking for that date of the first one inch snow of the season that occurred last week in Erie, Bradford, and then again the next day on on.

Sites in Scranton still have six cities in the contest, though Pittsburgh State College, Williamsport, Harrisburg, Allentown and Philadelphia.

And a reminder that that average first one inch snowfall is right around Thanksgiving in Erie, early December in Pittsburgh State College up towards Scranton, closer to the holidays in both Harrisburg and Allentown, and then early in January for Philadelphia.

So still yet to get on the board in these stations.

But we have a total at least picked up half an inch in State College goose eggs, though for observations in Pittsburgh and Williamsport off to the south and east 3.3in so far, the snow totals for the season in Erie.

With some of the lake effect, you see cities like Cleveland and Buffalo now on the board.

Syracuse also seeing 4.5in so far this season.

Six and a half towards Burlington, Vermont.

Nothing though along the I-95 corridor as of yet.

And we'll have that chance for maybe a sneaky one inch or so.

I think with the storm system that's passing by tonight, and maybe another chance for some snow just in time for Thanksgiving or right around then.

We're going into the snow season, though, with some drought, abnormally dry conditions for much of Pennsylvania, moderate drought in the Northwest Plateau and over towards the Poconos, but still seeing severe and extreme drought covering a good portion of northern New England across the Midwest, also in the desert southwest and through portions of the Rockies.

So all things to kind of keep in mind as we're looking at our prospects for snow, at least in the next ten days.

We do that by taking a look at an upper air pattern, a couple other products that I'll show you tonight.

You've already heard about the piece of energy that will be sneaking by Pennsylvania, just to our south as we go through tonight.

And the first part of the day tomorrow, that could potentially produce a sneaky one inch total in some of the mountains or in areas north of I-80.

Otherwise, that quickly moves off to the east.

We wait for our next piece of energy to dive in for Friday Friday into maybe the first part of Saturday.

Most of the moisture with that looks to stay off to our south, moves off to off to the east before we see our next piece of energy.

Just in time for early next week.

A clipper system kind of cuts by just off to our north.

I think it will be warm enough there that most of that precipitation will be liquid, but maybe some lake enhanced snow closer to the Lake Erie shoreline.

We've been watching this piece of energy that's cut off across the southwest.

It really takes its time.

Getting here does not get to the Eastern seaboard until we get closer to Thanksgiving, or the day after we see a trough begin to dig in across the eastern US.

I think where that low tracks will actually determine what kind of precipitation we're talking about in terms of amounts and type of precipitation.

There is a scenario where that actually could track through Pennsylvania and bring us maybe some wintry precipitation, especially to end as it does eventually move off to our east.

As we take a look at the moisture tracker, we'll stick with the European model.

Seeing this low track by to our south tonight.

Again, a sneaky total of an inch.

Maybe possible somewhere, but I think most of us will be seeing rain as that moves by.

And then we're dry until we get to Friday.

Next a boundary begins to move in.

Best chance for precipitation in general, I think will be across the southern tier of the state, and it's likely in the form of liquid at that point.

And then we're going to be watching for a clipper system early next week.

As that scoots by, I think it will be rain, but maybe some lake enhanced precipitation on the backside.

And then it's really the second half of next week where we see this low begin to track northeastward and just what track it takes, how much cold air taps into will actually determine what we're talking about in terms of threats.

I'll call it an elevated risk for some snow going into late next week, especially on the backside of that storm.

So our first snow risk of the season valid through just the day after Thanksgiving tonight through Wednesday morning.

You've already heard about this, but an elevated risk north or in the mountains with a low passing by to our south I think we'll see a period of rain, some wet flakes, a sneaky one inch will be possible, but otherwise not a not a high risk event.

And then Friday into Saturday morning, a cold front will cross bring some spotty rain.

Best chance for rain will be south, but no snow accumulations expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A low risk as a quick clipper crosses mainly rain, but some lake enhanced flakes may be possible northwest.

And then late next week we'll be watching as a low approaches Pennsylvania, some track uncertainty may mean we see some snow, especially to end.

That's the first snow risk of the season.

We'll be back in just a moment with more.

We saw a brief glimmer of sunshine this morning here in State College, but now it's cloudy and rainy.

And that's the same story across the state.

We're going to see showers across most of the state, thanks to a low pressure system that's going to quickly make its way through Pennsylvania.

Be out by dawn tomorrow, but it will actually provide a possibility of a covering to one inch of snow, mostly isolated to the Poconos and north of I-80.

So if you guys are in that area, be prepared for a little bit of slick travel tonight and into tomorrow morning.

As for Wednesday, though, we're going to see that system again clear out.

Maybe a lingering shower, but the rest of the day will be seasonable with mostly cloudy weather, maybe some sunshine, especially towards the northern portions of the state.

The winds will be out of the north, but they will flip to come out of the south, bringing in some cloudy weather, but again, mostly seasonable weather.

So make sure you guys get out there and try to enjoy it.

But again, you're going to need a jacket.

It's still in the 40s.

So over to you Rob.

What do you think?

Uh, well, listening to your forecast out there today, Chandler and yeah, it looks like we might have to be careful with some of those slick spots tomorrow morning in the northeast, but otherwise not too bad.

And still holding off for maybe some snow potential coming later next week.

Well, thank you so much for your recap tonight, Chandler, and thank you for tuning in.

We will see you back here tomorrow with the new edition of Weather Wise.