Meteorology and atmospheric science at Penn State.

This is Weather World.

Good evening and welcome to Weather World.

It's August 7th, 2026.

I'm Caitlin Cary joining you today by our forecaster Carl Schneider.

Now, Carl, we've kind of been in this pattern of muggy, wet weather out there.

What's kind of in store for us the next couple of days?

Yeah.

Caitlin.

In the short term, much of the same, at least for Saturday.

Then Sunday a little bit nicer.

Yeah, we'll see more about that in your short range forecast coming up in just a minute.

Also coming up on tonight's show, Ben Reppert will have your extended forecast and John Meese will have your week two trends.

But first here's Carl and thanks very much, Caitlin.

A warm and soupy air mass out there today.

Much of the same expected tomorrow with at least isolated thunderstorm chances, then drier, a little bit less humid, but not cooler necessarily by the time we get to Sunday.

So we'll jump right into the radar and satellite loop over the course of the day today.

And you saw some showers, even some rumbles of thunder in western Pennsylvania early in the day.

And as they progressed to the east, we see more robust thunderstorm development across the east, feeding off that warm and unstable air mass.

This afternoon.

There's even been a few severe weather reports, maybe of the of the high wind variety, as well as some heavy rainfall.

This activity is quickly progressing out of the state.

We're going to see this diminish in coverage as we lose our daytime heating and go through the overnight hours.

And for the most part, the night is going to be dry, with the exception of folks in western Pennsylvania.

As we look at the temperature map, it's very reflective of where it has recently been raining out ahead of these storms.

It was in the 90s, dropping back into the 70s with the rain cooled air and then into the low to mid 80s as we've had some more daytime heating.

I think the 80s are going to be commonplace across most of the Commonwealth going through the next couple of days, as we're still searching for some cooler air.

This is not made felt any better by the dew points.

Look at this.

Very soupy.

Many folks above 70, even 75 in Philadelphia.

It's going to be a very soupy night tonight.

Another soupy day tomorrow.

We'll finally have a little bit of relief, though, in the dew point department.

By the time we get to Sunday.

And the broader view across the eastern United States shows a very warm and humid air mass with lots of air mass thunderstorms across the southeast.

The next feature to note is this thunderstorm complex moving through the Upper Midwest.

This is ahead of a cold front that's moving through.

That's what's going to give us a bit of a relief in the dew point department on Sunday.

And that's going to take its time making its way here.

So we're going to have some warm and soupy air ahead of that.

As we see in the temperature map, plenty of 80s, even 90s across the Midwest.

And the dew point gradient is what I really want to point out here across the upper Midwest, because behind that feature, we're going to be tapping into some lower dew point air.

The bad news, though, if you want lower dew points, is that this cold front is going to be weakening as it approaches, and it's going to be temporary relief at best.

So the evening service map shows the scattered and thunderstorm, shower and thunderstorm activity kind of diminishing as we go through the overnight hours.

Expect the potential for some more showers in western Pennsylvania towards daybreak.

Then as we go through the day tomorrow, more scattered or maybe more isolated activity across the state, we're not looking at a washout.

It's hard to pinpoint which areas will see rain right now at any particular time, but do be on the lookout for some brief, locally heavy downpours, but nothing to cancel outdoor plans on Saturday afternoon for.

It's just going to be probably a brief nuisance if any of those showers and thunderstorms roll through.

We also see that cold front drawing near on Saturday.

We'll still be out ahead of it.

So very warm and humid air mass out ahead of that tomorrow.

But that will push through Saturday night.

We'll start to see more clearing in terms of the cloud cover and slightly lower dew points as we go into Sunday.

But because this front is kind of washing out across our area, you see it kind of become stationary across Pennsylvania.

Not too much of an air mass gradient.

And temperatures will be relatively similar.

Still quite warm to hot through the day on Sunday depending on where you are.

So tonight, another soupy night.

The shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern PA will diminish rather quickly, as we already saw on the radar that it is across the west.

We have a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening that I think will fall apart, but towards daybreak, some of that activity from Ohio could work its way in here, and we'll start to see more of that persisting potentially into the morning hours.

If we see clearing anywhere, we'll have to be on the lookout for some patchy fog, but I'm not that confident that's actually going to occur tonight.

Either way, low temperatures anywhere from the upper 60s to even mid 70s, so very soupy on Saturday, continued mugginess in the morning hours.

I think we'll have some showers and thunderstorms hanging around in Western and moving into central PA, but those should fall apart looking dry early in the day in eastern Pennsylvania, before we might see some showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon there in a very hot and humid air mass.

But I don't think the coverage of storms is going to be as high as it was today, on Friday, and then moving into Sunday.

Sunnier, drier, less sticky falling dew points, especially in northern, north, northern and western areas, mostly sunny skies and very similar high temperatures to Saturday.

Back in a moment with more.

As we head into the extended forecast period.

Looking at next week, a front is going to set up shop very close to Pennsylvania, and as long as we are near it or to the south of it, we are going to be staying on the humid side with the opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms.

If we end up on the north side of the front, that would be a more refreshing place to be.

Except I don't think we spend much of next week in that regime.

First, let's take a look at the water vapor imagery over the last couple of days.

And you can see our flow on the East Coast here, basically straight out of the subtropics.

Ample moisture has been hugging much of the coastal plain.

Of course, it's been very humid around here.

Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

And although the overall flow pattern is going to slightly reorient itself next week, the day to day weather, at least for a while, next week is going to be fairly similar.

So here's the upper air pattern.

By Monday morning, we've got a front that's going to be draped near us where these lines are clustered together.

That's sort of the position of where the front at the surface is also going to set up.

So it's going to be near us or just to our north to start the week.

And as we go through the week, you'll notice not much of this changes.

If anything, by the end of the week, we might actually get that front to slide a bit to the south.

That would take the humidity down, settle things down a bit in the thunderstorm department, and maybe bring some cooler air in here.

But largely, I think next week is more rinse and repeat for the most part on the moisture tracker.

On Monday, you can see that the deeper moisture, the green colors will be present in western Pennsylvania.

That will be both the total amount of moisture in the atmosphere, but also the humidity.

And I want to point this out.

There's this area to the west where these arrows are coming together.

A weak disturbance is going to be moving eastward.

So that combined with the moisture will be fueling some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

I think it would favor western Pennsylvania where the deeper moisture is.

Can't completely rule it out in the east, but I think eastern PA is largely dry on Monday.

I think we flip things on Tuesday, as that boundary might try to sink a little bit farther to the south.

The deeper moisture and the lift would be in eastern Pennsylvania Tuesday.

So I think that's where more of the showers and downpours would be by that point Wednesday.

I think we flip things again.

The boundary tries to return back north to our west.

So I think western Pennsylvania has the better chance of showers and storms Wednesday.

And then we flip it again for Thursday with the lingering deep moisture farther to the south and east.

Most of the guidance by Friday has this front actually clearing us, which would send things a little bit down in the temperature department, send the humidity down and ensure more of a dry day.

We'll keep you posted next week.

It's a bit of a fluid setup because it involves where we are in relation to the front, but here's how I see it right now.

Monday.

Brighter in the east and more unsettled in the west, where afternoon showers and thunderstorms and downpours would be favored Tuesday.

I think those would be favored more into eastern Pennsylvania, back again north and west on Wednesday, and then back south and east again on Thursday.

At the moment, I'm keeping next Friday generally dry.

Otherwise not much changes next week, generally upper 70s to low 90s on the high side, often more clouds than sunshine, often quite humid until we get to Friday.

Giannis has a look at week two trends when we come right back.

Week two trends is our opportunity always on Fridays to look beyond the extended forecast, the 8 to 14 day period from next Saturday to the following Friday, two weeks from today.

And we're just looking for trends.

Will temperatures be above or below average?

And what about opportunities to get some rain?

What I don't see in the week two period is an extended period of heat.

I do see a couple days with temperatures below average, humidity below average, and a couple opportunities in a very fast flow to get some rain.

Since we're assessing the probability of temperatures being above or below average, it helps to show you what the averages will be during the week two period.

We show you these numbers for nine cities.

So there are 18 numbers here.

And 13 of these 18 numbers have gone down one degree since we showed you them one week ago.

And that rate of temperature decrease in terms of the climatological averages will continue by.

By the way, this is the first time since late June that the average high in central Pennsylvania has dropped below 82 to do the week two trends forecast, we look at ensemble forecasting.

What you're seeing here are pressure lines up around 20,000ft.

We use these in two ways.

The wind tends to follow these lines from west to east, and also the ridges or bulges and dips or troughs help us to assess where pockets of dry air and storminess will be.

Now, as we go through time, there are 30 different solutions here, so watch these red lines begin to expand.

There are 30 red lines there, each one indicating a different solution.

And as time goes on, their separation indicates growing uncertainty.

Now, what I can take from this as we get into the beginning of my period, you see how these three white lines, the white lines are the averages of the adjacent colored lines.

These are relatively close together.

This is a fast flow, and I think that will drive a cold front through Pennsylvania, a serious cold front next weekend, really reducing the humidity and also dropping temperatures a bit.

So there will be one opportunity to get precipitation next weekend.

And by the time we get to the beginning of week two, the solutions are diverging so much, we're just going to average them amongst themselves.

The blue here means cooler than average or a negative temperature anomaly, and the yellows mean warmer than average or a positive temperature anomaly.

And we're in this northwest flow at the beginning of week two.

So I'm going to put a couple below average days.

Temperature wise.

There will likely be one more disturbance in this northwest flow.

Always hard to time this far out.

But nonetheless I'm going to put one more opportunity in the middle of week two to get some rain.

So a cold front next week brings the opportunity for thunderstorms.

Then we dry out behind that and then another opportunity in the middle of week two to get some rain on the temperature line.

This pattern favors that cold front going through and thus temperatures going below average.

I don't have any read on the temperature line, meaning I don't see a high risk of temperatures being above average, at least for an extended period during the week two period.

That's it for week two.

Trends.

Back in a moment with more.

More muggies in store for the short term.

Beginning with tonight.

Very muggy night in store.

Evening shower and thunderstorm activity will pretty much come to an end a few hours after dark.

We'll have to watch in western Pennsylvania for more activity to move in in the late overnight hours.

Lows 60s and 70s then on Saturday continued Mugginess shower and thunderstorm activity possible in the west, mainly in the morning hours before that kind of breaks up as it reaches central PA.

More isolated activity later in the day in eastern Pennsylvania.

Another day with high dew points and temperatures anywhere from around 80 in the northwest to even upper 80s and lower 90s in the southeast.

Then on Sunday, a much nicer day, especially in the dew point department, as that cold front works its way through early in the day, dropping dew points in northern and western Pennsylvania, still hanging on to some stickier air in the southeast with highs around 90 but looking much drier than it was the past couple of days.

And on Saturday as well.

And so, Caitlin, it looks like for the most part, Sunday is probably the pick of the weekend for outdoor activities.

Yeah, I'm certainly looking forward to only dealing with that frisky weather for a little bit longer before it gets really beautiful on Sunday.

All right.

Well, thank you for your forecast, Carl, and thank you for joining us here tonight.

Be sure to come back on Monday for a new installment of Hashtag headlines from all of us here at Weather World.

Have a great weekend.